Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[Jamiet99uk]

Okay bunny,

Now if you want me to stick my vote then please explain Bozo's EoD2 voting behavior.

##VOTE King

This is still as scuzzy now as it was the first time I read it.

Voting for Hamilton to please some people you claim are town, even though you think Hamilton is town.

Voting for KingofthePirates to please BunnyGo rather than because you scumread him.

Scuzzbucket antics here I think.

[Spartaculous]

It might reveal who the cop is, though. This sort of thing was also attempted in M87 and fizzled out pretty quickly.

Okay, let's chase this out. Pretend (for the sake of argument) that you are the clerk and I am not the clerk. You would list off three scans you made. Presumably you tell the truth (or else what's the point of this?).

Meanwhile, I make up two fake scans (since I was roleblocked last night). If I slip up and list a Mafia player as "town", then they will instantly know I am faking this, which then basically rules me out as clerk.

So Bunny's plan does offer some protection to the clerk, but it is not bulletproof.

Useful discussion (and I still support Bunny's plan, I think).

I would support it, but only if a sufficient number of players agree to it, which I doubt will happen.

[Jamiet99uk]

Worcej has been super low energy all game.

That can be scum Worcej.

##Vote Worcej.

Still could be.

[Jamiet99uk]

The fact that Sparta has come up with a good reason why Ham could be scum also makes for confusing situation. How can there be strong logical reasons for reading him either way?

The reason for my post about Ham is that I started a D3 wagon on an eventual town flip, and I am trying to follow Balki's advice here:

When you have incorrect reads (if you are Town), I encourage you to focus on yourself and how you can get better, and not focus so much on the person you were trying to read.

I ask my students to check the assumptions they are making all of the time; I am doing the same to myself here. Was I too fixated on saving Ham?

There were genuine questions in there from someone who has never played Mafia before: I still want to know, from an experienced Mafia player, if Mafia would have spotted Ham's crumbs. Jamie, do you have thoughts?

I am not sure if I answered this.

Yes, I noticed Hamilton softing Cop, before his claim.

I was surprised that Damo did not notice.

[Jamiet99uk]

Worcej has been super low energy all game.

That can be scum Worcej.

##Vote Worcej.

I can get on board with that, but I'd like to connect some dots today around them.

A second post by Hamilton Brian promising to look at Worcej.

Did he do it....?

[Jamiet99uk]

Still waiting on the response from those who are voting me. I’ve addressed your concerns in a logical and truthful way. Nothing else to say to anyone that hasn’t already been said.

This sounds like a thing Town Jamie would post.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is nobody reading what Dip is writing? I don't think it could look much worse.

##VOTE Dip

Analyse it for us.

I already made a great case.

Here are the bullet points:

1. Rdr defended and pocketed me D1, which is notable in that it has never happened before and is really strange.

2. Rdr was listed by many as a top scumread during D2, but since then we've been distracted by Ham's claim and Bozo.

And most importantly:

3. Dip was able to snuggle into his slot quickly and conveniently assessed that we should vote LoW over Ham. The traditional reaction to a fake claim is to bay for blood, and resisting that urge takes serious convincing from others.

This makes Dip look incredibly bad and his last couple posts have looked really bad too. It also makes him look like teammates with Ham.

Maybe there is something here, you know.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is nobody reading what Dip is writing? I don't think it could look much worse.

##VOTE Dip

What do you mean it couldn't "look much worse?""

If we consider it, would it be a flip that we do later?

What do you think about a flip of worcej or bona or king?

I get the impression that flipping worcej or king is a matter of confessing you don't have any suspects.

Flipping Bona is insane.

Interesting that Sweet said that about Bona, but would go on to scumread him later today.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Okay bunny,

Now if you want me to stick my vote then please explain Bozo's EoD2 voting behavior.

##VOTE King

This is still as scuzzy now as it was the first time I read it.

Voting for Hamilton to please some people you claim are town, even though you think Hamilton is town.

Voting for KingofthePirates to please BunnyGo rather than because you scumread him.

Scuzzbucket antics here I think.

@Jamiet, I don’t agree with your take here for a couple of reasons:

(1) Sometimes townies barter and negotiate with their votes. I get that it makes you queasy and perhaps goes against the way you think people should play, but I do not believe it is alignment indicative to do that generally.

(2) Sweetandcool is being transparent about this bartering/pleasing process and motivation. You are taking him at his word, but stating that playing that way is “scuzzbucket antics.” I think that the kind of thing you are actually looking for would not be so explicit. In other words, I think you’d be more likely to find a wolf who is casting a vote to please someone without saying so openly. A hidden motivation.

In my experience, taking someone’s stated motivation at face value, and determining that this motivation should not come from Town, often results in a false positive due to differences in play-style.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am up to Page 128 and now I need to go and get something to eat.

I will be back before EoD hopefully, but just in case I am not, my scans were:

N1: Balki (innocent)
N2: Damo (innocent)
N3: Worcej (guilty)

[sweetandcool]

I am up to Page 128 and now I need to go and get something to eat.

I will be back before EoD hopefully, but just in case I am not, my scans were:

N1: Balki (innocent)
N2: Damo (innocent)
N3: Worcej (guilty)

:O

##VOTE worcej.

Or should we assume Miller?

[Spartaculous]

I am up to Page 128 and now I need to go and get something to eat.

I will be back before EoD hopefully, but just in case I am not, my scans were:

N1: Balki (innocent)
N2: Damo (innocent)
N3: Worcej (guilty)

:O

##VOTE worcej.

Or should we assume Miller?

I mean, conditional on Jamie telling the truth here, and in the absence of any other factors, there's a 75% chance that worcej is actually Mafia. In which case he should be voted for.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Cool.

##vote worcej

I’ll wait for the “told you so! Classic bus!” until we see that worcej is not Miller. Also, I think that this (provided worcej flips scum) makes the rest of the Will voters less likely to be scum because that would help explain why worcej felt, with five minutes to go in Day 1, that his Godfather buddy was a goner.

[Spartaculous]

##VOTE worcej

[Balki Bartokomous]

Playing poker tonight so pretty unlikely to be online at EOD.

I also won't be posting or catching up much, if at all, during last 4 hours of the day.

DO NOT KILL Ham.

DO NOT tie.

To avoid either kill any of the Ham voters or Bozo, whoever looks most likely to be top wagon.

FYI, here is a post from Damo at End Of Day 2 that makes Hamilton Brian EXTREMELY likely to be Town given the Damo kill and the near certainty that Wolves were cop hunting.

So My Towncore:
Jamiet
Balki
Hamilton
Pirate (based on D1 vote)
Bona (based on D1 vote and interactions with JustWill and D1 vote)
RDR/Dip (based on D1 vote)
Sweet (based on D1 vote)
BunnyGo (based on solveyness and his helpful read on Hamilton)

POE
Worcej
Bozo
Vecna
Sparta

Hopefully there is a way to ISO worcej

[Spartaculous]

So My Towncore:
Jamiet
Balki
Hamilton
Pirate (based on D1 vote)
Bona (based on D1 vote and interactions with JustWill and D1 vote)
RDR/Dip (based on D1 vote)
Sweet (based on D1 vote)
BunnyGo (based on solveyness and his helpful read on Hamilton)

Why don't you think that rdrivera was bussing on Day 1?

[Balki Bartokomous]

So My Towncore:
Jamiet
Balki
Hamilton
Pirate (based on D1 vote)
Bona (based on D1 vote and interactions with JustWill and D1 vote)
RDR/Dip (based on D1 vote)
Sweet (based on D1 vote)
BunnyGo (based on solveyness and his helpful read on Hamilton)

Why don't you think that rdrivera was bussing on Day 1?

He possibly could have been.

After the JustWill flip, I went back and read through Day 1 with the flip in mind. At that time, I concluded that rdrivera’s vote was unlikely to come from Scum. I’d have to go back and read again, or review my own posts when I concluded that, but I think the gist is that the timing and vote count at the time would have been an unusual and inopportune time to vote for a Godfather teammate. I think (and the his is off the top of my head, so it needs checking) that the rdrivera vote was one of the esrlyish votes in the final hour that really pushed the JustWill wagon into viability at a time when rdrivera had plenty of other options. In my opinion, it would have been an unusual sacrifice for Scum!rdrivera to make at that time.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Rdrivera and worcej are both scum, then it would have been a really crazy way to play that final hour for the scum team. They didn’t need to lose their Godfather like that.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I’m going to try to ISO worcej and look at EOD2 again before this phase is over, so please don’t vote end. I might not survive this night.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think I've just solved the game.

The reason everything has become so difficult and several good arguments have arisen is that scum is lurking and/or voting low impact content.

The scum team is Dip, Vecna, and Ham.

Small chance I am wrong about Ham. But he looks partnered with Dip.

I hope there will be more elaboration on this theory.