Tiny Hunt I Game Thread

[bo_sox48]

Devil's advocate here but Damo is always sporadically all over the place. I honestly feel that he would be less sporadic in this game because the witch QT is open during the day and he can get coaching there...

Why would an open QT imply that he's being coached? I see it as even less likely that he would be actively coached with an open QT than with just a nighttime QT. If there were a deadline on all the coaching that his teammates can do before he gets thrown back to the wolves, it's a lot more pressing and urgent, but if it's open all the time, they can be more reactionary and fix things as they come up instead. Hence, I wouldn't see them trying very hard to coach anyone.

I want to push this saveclaim issue. As well as claiming if you were saved is important so is declaring yourself a no save.

Why? Mafia knows who was saved. The person who was saved knows they were saved. The angel may know who was saved too. Other than townclearing someone, does it actually matter if you know who was saved? What is the purpose of having a townclear right now?

There are a shitload of reasons why the saved may not claim it and your insistence on revealing it anyway instead of putting together an actual case instead of a theory on Vecna is scummy as hell.

[bo_sox48]

I think activating the Vig is good and gives us a weapon, but at a cost of more useful PRs. Utilizing the Judge (if he is alive, it could’ve been ND...) on D3 may be a good time since we most likely would have Vig online.

You think the judge is more useful than the vigilante? The vigilante gives us town-led kills. The judge gives us a town-led lynch, but only if the town can't actually get their shit together during the day. The judge takes away the most powerful tool that we have in this game, which is reading into lynches and EODs, whereas the vigilante adds to it. I do not see how you came to this conclusion.

[damo666]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

[bo_sox48]

That explained absolutely nothing.

[yavuzovic]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

Omg damo what are you doing? I didn't even read ".006357" ahahahaha

[damo666]

bo_sox - does a townclear not narrow the field for lynching?

In fact opposing the claim concept strikes me as more scummy.

[damo666]

Perhaps I might change my vote before a cliam. To bo-sox.

[bo_sox48]

bo_sox - does a townclear not narrow the field for lynching?

In fact opposing the claim concept strikes me as more scummy.

A townclear narrows the field for us thinking, which gets us nothing in return. If a townclear is up for lynch, they will tell us so with ample time for us to correct things.

[bo_sox48]

Your immediate turn to call me scummy after I just called you scummy is a 100% classic OMGUS, but the fact that you didn't even allow me to answer your only question that apparently is so substantial that you would consider dropping your massive, enthusiastic, EUREKA! case on Vecna in order to vote for me is even scummier.

Are you trying to make today's lynch easy for us or do you actually have something to say against Vecna?

[y2kjbk]

if i were scum and had a nightkill protected, i'd be frustrated trying to interact with the game knowing who was protected and having to pretend i don't.

[damo666]

I'm trying to clear Vecna by encouraging a claim.

That way we have 10 votes to 3 (or even 11-2) with 2 townclears.

This significantly increases the chance of lynching scum.

[bo_sox48]

I'm trying to clear Vecna by encouraging a claim.

And since your only basis for potentially clearing Vecna is "it's so obvious that he would have been protected by someone last night" I don't buy it. Am I missing something?

[Jamiet99uk]

Hi everyone, I'm here. Sorry for my absence, been really busy. I see there was no NK. Various reasons for this could be possible of course. I'd rather not speculate about them as I don't want to put the spotlight on our townies with the ability to disrupt the NK. All I will say is, if it was town action that stopped the kill, good work

[Jamiet99uk]

I do not like Damo's wall of probabilities.

Teacher2 was doing similar things as scum, I remember.

If you are town, Damo, using a whole load of maths like that to try to guess the course of events that were hidden from you is not, in my experience, actually very helpful.

[bozotheclown]

Prima Facie prob ND scum =3/13, town 10/13

Assume if ND town he did not fail to use his save and further assume he outthought scum and did not use it on Vecna as being too obvious (and Vecna claims no save) then chance of saving anyone else in particular = 1/11.

Let us also assume scum did not target Vecna.

Prob scum hit protected gambler = (1/11)*(1/2) = 1/22

Prob scum hit protected clown = (1/11)*(2/12) = 1/66

Prob ND saved target = (10/13)*(1/11)*(1/11) = .006357

Bit of double counting because ND could have saved protected clown or gambler but this tiny and therefore negligible.

The sum of these 3 probabilities is 0.067 (to 3 dps).

This implies probabilty of a deliberate no NK (and ND town) is (1-0.067-10/13) or roughly 70%. This strikes me as somewhat high. Are scum really that likely to try and confuse us and dispense with a kill?

So either:

ND scum 3/13 (23.0%)
we were very lucky 6.7%
scum were clever (70.3-x)%

or SOMETHING IS FISHY x%

Now what could be fishy? Perhaps ND saved Vecna and Vecna's no claim is lie? Obviously if someone claims Vecna is off the hook. That is why my vote remains on Vecna until someone claims.

I think you have some errors in your calculations. You should start with the assumption that the probability the mafia did not use the NK was approximately 0%.

[Jamiet99uk]

For the record, I was not saved.

[damo666]

I'm trying to clear Vecna by encouraging a claim.

And since your only basis for potentially clearing Vecna is "it's so obvious that he would have been protected by someone last night" I don't buy it. Am I missing something?

I didn't say Vecna was protected, quite the opposite. That is reflected in my probabilities. If you are saying that if someone claims it doesn't town clear Vecna you are right but it greatly improves the chances of him being town.

[damo666]

Bozo - the assumption scum not using NK is approx zero implies

chance of something fishy = 70% !!!!

[y2kjbk]

damo, are you basically saying you want to lynch Vecna unless a NK save claim comes forward?

[bozotheclown]

Bozo - the assumption scum not using NK is approx zero implies

chance of something fishy = 70% !!!!

There are only four possibilities for there not being a NK, and I can approximate their probabilities:
ND protected the NK target: 33%
NK target was protected Gambler: 33%
NK target was protected Clown: 33%
mafia did not use their NK: <1%