MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[Jamiet99uk]

Reading my list back there, I am now questioning my read on Teacher2. Let me consider this a bit more.

[flash2015]

Rdrivera very much in his scum meta so far.

PeterLund feeling scummy scummy and lynchworthy.

I don't understand - How do you read PeterLund as lynchworthy from only a few of posts???

You look for intentions. In this case the intention looked (to me) like he was trying to set up two townies for a mislynch, based on reasoning that did not feel like genuine town reasoning to me.

On day1, such feelings make people great lynch candidates for me. Much better than a brainbomb for example

I think you are reading way too much into peter's comment. He mused on it once...then didn't mention it again. Or are you suggesting that Peter as mafia threw out a theory hoping it would stick, then quickly changed tacks once he didn't see any traction?

I can't see how one comment makes him a better choice than the pages of evidence that Brainbomb has provided.

[Vecna]

The janitor makes people disappear. I wanna make Peterlund disappear.

Making me explain my shitty jokes makes them even shittier Jamiet. Totally uncool. Also, my mspaints are works of art and youre just a bland hater.

[Vecna]

I don't understand - How do you read PeterLund as lynchworthy from only a few of posts???

You look for intentions. In this case the intention looked (to me) like he was trying to set up two townies for a mislynch, based on reasoning that did not feel like genuine town reasoning to me.

On day1, such feelings make people great lynch candidates for me. Much better than a brainbomb for example

I think you are reading way too much into peter's comment. He mused on it once...then didn't mention it again. Or are you suggesting that Peter as mafia threw out a theory hoping it would stick, then quickly changed tacks once he didn't see any traction?

I can't see how one comment makes him a better choice than the pages of evidence that Brainbomb has provided.

Evidence? What evidence is that?

All im seeing is a brainbomb that is getting the Jamiet death tunnel and it putting him on tilt. If he actually is scum, Jamiet is probably doing him a favor by approaching it like this, because the wagon is gonna vanish, and brainbomb is gonna look quite good through it.

Brainbomb is getting attacked because he wrote a bunch of lsd-fuelled fan fiction. He literally does this every game, so reading into it in the way Jamiet is doing is complete nonsense. He is literally asking Brainbomb to answer "Jamiet youre taking my silly stories at face value, please stop being so dense". He does it via a work around, and he gets pissed about it.

None of this is alignment indicative in any way. He could react this way as any alignment.

-----------------------------------------

As for the Peter part, I interpret it slightly different. He just states he thinks jamiet vs Brainbomb is scum vs scum to provide himself a reason to vote there later on. Then when he gets asked about it, he folds quickly and he cannot provide any backup for his earlier reasoning. It looks to me like scum being busy, throwing things out there, trying to pretend they have original thoughts maybe. Am I reading too much into it? Its possible. But it is my strongest read for scummy behaviour, and its where my vote wants to be.

[damo666]

Well having read the thread I would rather have watched the VT. The thread is mostly the daft brainbomb Jamie spat. Nothing else of much value apart from Teacher's sensiblr townie posts. Have an intuition Peterlund is scum but tbh that is mainly due to his anti-English World Cup rhetoric.

[DrCJG]

What an unpleasant catch-up read... Brain/Jamie if either or both of you are town, you have to realize that spats like that are distracting from town advancing... thank you for (I think moving on), please continue to apply pressure to people based on your opinions, but note that direct confrontation between each other is a distraction.

Regardless... I am am happy to see that Bismark is posting (and hopefully feeling ok) and I am not particularly fond of any of the current wagons. ##UNVOTE

I don't believe I have enough solid reads to write up a full readlist, but in summary:

Better than NULL: Bozo, BB, Jamiet, and Teacher;
NULL: Bismark, Damo, DemonRHK, peterlund, Ike, and rdrivera;
Less than NULL: Doubting, flash, Fox, TheDip, Vecna, Worcej, and Yav.

I am going to look to do ISOs on those I have listed at the bottom, but for the time being ##VOTE Vecna...

If for no other reason than it felt like he came out of his shit posting to take on a very middle of the road "blendy" position... (which felt like it lacked reasoning or at the very least lacked his own reasoning).

[damo666]

##VOTE brainbomb simply so there is less nonsense to read.

[brainbomb]

Vecna, I thought you were town because the shit posting youve done in the past was far more long winded. This is a calmer, more focused veccy.

I can see why you say that on peter.

What do you think about yav, hes made some very reachy comments, asking me to reveal my whole team, claiming im obfuscating the game thread to hide my squad.

I find such remarks from him typical. I find peter saying bizarre stuff also typical. Theyre like a sitcom with jamie so far.

Improved / probable town
Fox - I thought his strange early certainty I was town or 3p was possible as a scumtell but ive loosened up on that a bit.

Whats sad is webdip players you have to eval them on a rolling scale of how atrocious their tinfoil theories are. The more atrocious are often being honest with themselves

[flash2015]

Evidence? What evidence is that?

Rather than just answer Jamie's questions and be done with it, he gets all defensive and starts ranting and raving...which I regard as a diversion tactic. He then makes a second slip by saying if we don't stop pestering him we will be NK which also suggests his mafia alignment. Again, this could all be his "meta-game" act but I refuse to play the metagame as I believe it makes it more likely for town to lose. I am going to take his statements at face value.

[Vecna]

Im pretty sure ive actually provided the most indepth reasoning for the few reads I do have of anyone in the thread.....but do you honey.

[damo666]

Physician heal thyself (bb)

[teacher2]

8. Flash2015: . . . Does the maths on Foxcastle's no-lynch proposal and his conclusion at the end of P.6 is well articulated.

1. Thank you for the readslist and coming out of the tunnel. Thank you also for being the bigger person in the 1v1.

2. Since you are like the third person to comment on Flash's "maths", I will try to explain just how off it is (I have a statistics background, plus I play poker semi-seriously for money so rely on game theory; Im open to being wrong, but will need to be convinced). Here, I am assuming Flash mean nk when he said "picking up".

• Odds with no-lynch: Chances that SK kills scum (4/17) plus Chances that scum kill SK (1/15) less chances that doctor protects scum or SK (1/17) (note I am not discounting SK and scum getting into a killing circle for brevity, and similarly not factoring in RB or JOAT, so this is a bit rough): Odds:24%
• Odds with town mislynch: Chances that SK kills scum (4/16) plus Chances that scum kill SK (1/14) less chances that doctor protects scum or SK (1/16) (same caveats): Odds:26%

Bottom line, a lynch helps (and is the right way to play) but it in no way doubles the chances of a favorable outcome.

3. Depending on flips from today and tonight, if alive Im going to be pushing my tracker hardclaim idea tomorrow. I think D-3 could well be possible mylo if worst case scenario plays out:

• D1 mislynch, N1 nk and sk on town: Start of D2 is 10-4-1
• D2 mislynch, N2 nk, sk, and JOAT/Vet on town: Start of D3 is 6-4-1 mylo.

. If it plays out this way, it will be beneficial to have knowntown, and one null check (which at least suggests not traitor/sk) at the start of D3. And we can only assure that information by getting no cc on D2. As of D3, scum could counterclaim for the win. But I really agree with not doing it today, for the reasons Bozo and others have mentioned.

[Vecna]

Evidence? What evidence is that?

Rather than just answer Jamie's questions and be done with it, he gets all defensive and starts ranting and raving...which I regard as a diversion tactic. He then makes a second slip by saying if we don't stop pestering him we will be NK which also suggests his mafia alignment. Again, this could all be his "meta-game" act but I refuse to play the metagame as I believe it makes it more likely for town to lose. I am going to take his statements at face value.

You realize Jamiet literally asked him "Why did you claim werewolf" right? He literally ignored everything around it, and that it was very obviously a shitpost during the RVS stage.

Brainbomb is literally (one of) the best mafia player(s) on webdiplomacy. He does not slip. He's great at diversions though, and if anything, he'd get angry here because the player base is too dense to see what he's really doing and is catching him (if he's scum) because they reason two entire meta-levels too simple-minded and thus catch him for the completely wrong reasons and through flawed logic.

And just to put it out there - if you really do believe it was a traitor soft, you'd better consider that Brainbomb could also do that as a PR to avoid getting nightkilled by dumb scum that do think he's the traitor.

[brainbomb]

Anyway I am not any PR.

When you do lynch me go ahead and do yourself a favor. Blame yourself. Itd be nice if people would take responsibility for their misreads for once on this miserable forum.

Town
1. Vecna already stated why. Its not a strong read, not a great reason to townread him but its alright and I am confident hes probably dying early if town.

2. Ike is town. Hes probably quite uninspired by this shit show. I think hes just more into my fantasy rpg simulator. By the way if youd like to join my simulator its a huge fun game. Were about 5 phases into it. The phases are 48 hours and its also got worcej in it. Tons of fun. Hmu.

Other
3. Foxcastle is probably serial killer or traitor. He doesnt seem town. But hes not a priority rn either.

4. Yavuz will get lynched by day 3 or 4 and flip town

5. Peter will end up being a PR

6. Jamie will probably rage and blame me when I flip town this phase. He will probably go thru life assuming everyone who finds him obnoxious must be scum

7. Teacher, I dunno, maybe town? Ive got no real strong feelin here.
8. DrCjCg town. Nobody rolls scum 3x in a row.

9. The new ppl, thomas, dipplayer, worcej, bismark, flash
Probably a scum in there, hard to find. Bismarks maybe towncleared himself not knowing theres no n0 actionz. Thomas catchup an push was odd. Flash is new so I wont judge him for following Jamie. Once I flip hopefully jamie gets mislynched and rage posts after death so we can ban jamie permanently.

10. Everyone else is missing the mark or means little to me. Rhk lurking isnt a scumtell. Pretty outside of his scum style


Maybe rivera is scum, hes very outside the lines.

##Vote Rdrivera

[brainbomb]

Bozo is on my radar too

[brainbomb]

Evidence? What evidence is that?

Rather than just answer Jamie's questions and be done with it, he gets all defensive and starts ranting and raving...which I regard as a diversion tactic. He then makes a second slip by saying if we don't stop pestering him we will be NK which also suggests his mafia alignment. Again, this could all be his "meta-game" act but I refuse to play the metagame as I believe it makes it more likely for town to lose. I am going to take his statements at face value.

Yea the thing is, I only answer questions that move the game forward for the collective. I dont answer questions from authoritarian jackasses who demand to be courted. He can ask other people questions or vote me for all I care. Literally neans nothing to me. Im not gonna waste time explaining something that was meant to net new players attention and rile people up.

[teacher2]

Mind answering my followup about the self-vote then?

[brainbomb]

Mind answering my followup about the self-vote then?

I recall the wagon was 3 to 3
I said id rather lynch a PR than have a tie.
I self voted and said id sooner kill myself even as a PR than waste a day no lynching ir tying.


I guess I didnt voice a strong enough opinion on no lynching or tying wagons. Ill try to be even more extreme and drive my car off a cliff screaming please lynch someone

[DoubtingThomas]

Teacher2,

Sorry for late reply, am on vacation with only a phone, so it’s difficult to type a lot nor participate frequently, but I will be back next week to be able to be more involved

To your question, I voted Bismarck not wanting to be a “deciding vote” because he was away for more than 24+ hrs by that point and I wasnt sure if I would be able to get a read/whatnot in time for Bismarck to be back and for me to otherwise cast a meaningful vote

As a newb, I still have no idea who is what, but I dont wanna be voting Brainbomb yet because hes been so active (suspicious indeed, but not too much for me to actually want to vote him) and i dont want to disqualify for not voting

I am down to unvote bismarck, but not sure who to vote

[brainbomb]

Hold up dude. What was suspicious indeed ?