MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[brainbomb]

Teacher2,

Sorry for late reply, am on vacation with only a phone, so it’s difficult to type a lot nor participate frequently, but I will be back next week to be able to be more involved

To your question, I voted Bismarck not wanting to be a “deciding vote” because he was away for more than 24+ hrs by that point and I wasnt sure if I would be able to get a read/whatnot in time for Bismarck to be back and for me to otherwise cast a meaningful vote

As a newb, I still have no idea who is what, but I dont wanna be voting Brainbomb yet because hes been so active (suspicious indeed, but not too much for me to actually want to vote him) and i dont want to disqualify for not voting

I am down to unvote bismarck, but not sure who to vote

[yavuzovic]

Bozo is on my radar too

Your radar is stuck. You should look at other people, not yourself.

And I ask,
What we would lose if we lynched BB?

[brainbomb]

Bozo is on my radar too

Your radar is stuck. You should look at other people, not yourself.

And I ask,
What we would lose if we lynched BB?

Nothing would be lost. But I know you struggle with language barrier, but shouldnt you be lynching people who gain you something? As opposed to lynching becayse "oh well, we lose nothing killing this person".

I thought you valued my mafia skills yavu

In april yavuz was nominated to represent webdip at world mafia championships.

In may he was forced to back out days before game start

He writes me and says im one of the best players on webdip and I should replace him. He also writes me and says he plays mafia other sites and tries to be like me.

Now hes saying im terrible and its no big loss for me to be day 1 lynched.


Whats happened to you yavu?

[flash2015]

2. Since you are like the third person to comment on Flash's "maths", I will try to explain just how off it is (I have a statistics background, plus I play poker semi-seriously for money so rely on game theory; Im open to being wrong, but will need to be convinced). Here, I am assuming Flash mean nk when he said "picking up".

• Odds with no-lynch: Chances that SK kills scum (4/17) plus Chances that scum kill SK (1/15) less chances that doctor protects scum or SK (1/17) (note I am not discounting SK and scum getting into a killing circle for brevity, and similarly not factoring in RB or JOAT, so this is a bit rough): Odds:24%
• Odds with town mislynch: Chances that SK kills scum (4/16) plus Chances that scum kill SK (1/14) less chances that doctor protects scum or SK (1/16) (same caveats): Odds:26%

Bottom line, a lynch helps (and is the right way to play) but it in no way doubles the chances of a favorable outcome.

I am not sure how your math is working. It looks very wrong. You are just adding the chances together??

I am just following basic stats theory. e.g. a more simple example:

the chance of tossing heads is 1/2
the chance of tossing two heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
the chance of throwing one tails in two throws is 1 - (chance of throwing two heads) = 1 - 1/4 = 3/4

Agree so far?

I am just following the same philosophy for my calculations (ignoring the town PR roles:

If no-lynch chance of two town kills = (chance of mafia killing town) * (chance of SR killing town)

Thus chance of at least one mafia/SK kill = 1 - (chance of two town kills)

If lynch chance of three town kills = (chance of town killing town) * (chance of mafia killing town too) * (chance of SK killing town)

Thus chance of at least one mafia/SK kill = 1 - (chance of three town kills)

Please tell me how this is wrong...because I think your numbers are kind of off.

[teacher2]

Mind answering my followup about the self-vote then?

I recall the wagon was 3 to 3
I said id rather lynch a PR than have a tie.
I self voted and said id sooner kill myself even as a PR than waste a day no lynching ir tying.


I guess I didnt voice a strong enough opinion on no lynching or tying wagons. Ill try to be even more extreme and drive my car off a cliff screaming please lynch someone

OK. My point in the follow-up was that, with 25+hrs to the deadline, there was NO chance the wagons would stay tied, so it seemed a bit of unnecessary martyr theater and a possible PR soft (I wasnt going to say that til you outed it again). I still dont like the play, and think you can make the opinion plain without the vote, but dont think talking about it more will advance anything.

PEDIT: Thanks Doubting, and thanks for chiming in on vacation. Id suggest looking at the bot and picking where feels good and providing whatever reasoning you have. Im going to copy a brief post I made recently about scumhunting for what its worth.

Regarding reading: My personal strategy focuses on motives, probabilities, and associations. For each post, I try to ascertain the motive behind it. Does it seem town-motivated or scum-motivated. To be sure, both town and scum have similar objectives, but they arent overlapping. Town is not as afraid of being lynched, because there will be a mislynch at some point; scum knows that their death is 50% of a loss. Town wants to out real analysis to advance the game; scum wants to repeat information that everybody knows so they can appear to be helping without actually doing it.
Another key area of difference is in probabilities. Here, I cant say it much better than a strategy article from one of the other places I play: Use Occam's Razor with the knowledge that scum thrive on possibilities. Last, I will speak on associations later.

[brainbomb]

Its okay to be a liar yavuz. As long as you are amusing in your lies

[brainbomb]

@Yavuz, feel free to name off the teammates ive been allegedly protecting this phase

[brainbomb]

Thats what I thought.
Thanks for tryin.

Yavuz is actually scum btw

[flash2015]

Brainbomb is literally (one of) the best mafia player(s) on webdiplomacy. He does not slip. He's great at diversions though, and if anything, he'd get angry here because the player base is too dense to see what he's really doing and is catching him (if he's scum) because they reason two entire meta-levels too simple-minded and thus catch him for the completely wrong reasons and through flawed logic.

And just to put it out there - if you really do believe it was a traitor soft, you'd better consider that Brainbomb could also do that as a PR to avoid getting nightkilled by dumb scum that do think he's the traitor.

I am sure he is a great player, but I think he is playing for his own win percentage rather than this specific game. Again, that is making it harder for town to win.

Sure, he could be PR too trying to look like traitor...but I am not believing it because filling the thread with pages and pages of drivel also makes it harder to gain evidence on other potential scumthreats. I am not buying the excuse of "BB being BB" - his behaviour is bad for town so I am going to continue to assume he is scum (or SK) until proven otherwise.

[DoubtingThomas]

Brainbomb,

I think as a NEWB you getting hell of a lot emotional (unnecessarily tbh, but thats my opinion, and please ignore) and fighting Jamie CAN be seen as suspcious,

BUT NOW knowing that you guys do this all day everyday, I GUESS its not that suspicious?


PLUS, i think its insane that not only you, but others including JAMIE and I forgot the other mans name stating that Bismarck and other newbs are less suspicious for “being a newb”, while I get all this shit for just saying “I dont want to be a decisive vote” AS A FELLOW newb

I still dont see whats so wrong with not wanting to be a descisive vote, at least when it comes to Brainbomb that I have NO CLUE about but is extremely active, and nobody wanted to give a benefit of doubt to a newb who is trying his best to participate in a crowd of people who already know each other so well

[brainbomb]

Brainbomb is literally (one of) the best mafia player(s) on webdiplomacy. He does not slip. He's great at diversions though, and if anything, he'd get angry here because the player base is too dense to see what he's really doing and is catching him (if he's scum) because they reason two entire meta-levels too simple-minded and thus catch him for the completely wrong reasons and through flawed logic.

And just to put it out there - if you really do believe it was a traitor soft, you'd better consider that Brainbomb could also do that as a PR to avoid getting nightkilled by dumb scum that do think he's the traitor.

I am sure he is a great player, but I think he is playing for his own win percentage rather than this specific game. Again, that is making it harder for town to win.

Sure, he could be PR too trying to look like traitor...but I am not believing it because filling the thread with pages and pages of drivel also makes it harder to gain evidence on other potential scumthreats. I am not buying the excuse of "BB being BB" - his behaviour is bad for town so I am going to continue to assume he is scum (or SK) until proven otherwise.

Tf does this garbage even mean? Playing for my own win%?

[brainbomb]

Im.GMing a forum game literally right now in which events happen behind the scenes. Jamie rage quit and badmouthed the entire gm team and called the gake chaotic because he lacked any patience to try to understand what happened. His go to response when things are confusing is to freak the fuck out, rage quit, scream at mods, or become a petulant intolerable ass who literally tries to ruin or derail forum games.

The man you are claiming is reasonable is very unreasonable FYI and you will learn this as the game goes on. Mafia would literally never kill jamie even if he was a cop. Hes just that toxic to the game.

[brainbomb]

Maybe Jamie actually is scum here, hes been far too pedestrian in how hes behaving thus far. He should be way more annoyed by my lack of cooperation.

##Vote Jamie99uk

[rdrivera2005]

Well, finally catch up reading.

Not sure about Brain and Jamiet thing, it could be town x town. Anyway, I think we should try to put this behind and discuss other things.

The two players I am less impressed right now are DrCJG and Fox. Maybe it´s a bias after two games as scum but Dr seems to be hedgy and defensive every time he states an opinion and his vote on Vecna had a poor reasoning and seems to be a good way to park a vote.
Fox seems to be coasting and hedged a lot before parking a vote on a lurking newbie out of policy. I will give DrCJG the benefit of doubt and when I have time I will look at his D1 on the last two games.

By now, ##vote Foxcastle

@Fox - Why vote a lurker if you said that a pressure vote won´t make them participate more?

@DrCJG - Could you give some more reasoning on your town reads and your scum reads?

[brainbomb]

^ scum

[brainbomb]

Scumteam is
Yavuz
Bozo
Rdrivera
Jamie

[teacher2]

Please tell me how this is wrong...because I think your numbers are kind of off.

One difference is that you are adding the odds of a mislynch into the math, when lynching is an entirely separate decision made at a different time. We should take the lynch/no-lynch odds as a given when calculating the likely results of the night phase.

But the primary difference is that you are coming at it backwards, using the probability of all kills being on town (which requires multiplication - nk AND sk=*, see wiki) to determine the probability of catching scum/sk. Im coming it at it forwards, using the probability of any nk being on scum/sk (which requires addition, nk OR sk=+, see wiki_.

Either way, we agree on the play, so happy to chat more about this post-game but dont want to clog thread.

[Jamiet99uk]

Maybe Jamie actually is scum here, hes been far too pedestrian in how hes behaving thus far. He should be way more annoyed by my lack of cooperation.

##Vote Jamie99uk

I should be more annoyed, are you fucking serious? We spent like 5 pages doing nothing but shout at each other, and you'd like me to get more emotional? Give it a fucking rest, you troll.

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 1.5
Brainbomb (6) Jamiet99uk, yavuzovic, thedipplayer, flash2015, BismarckAlive, damo666
Damo666 (2) RagingIke297, Foxcastle
Peterlund (2) teacher2, Vecna
DrCJG (1) worcej
BismarckAlive (1) DoubtingThomas
DemonRHK (1) bozotheclown
Vecna (1) DrCJG
Jamiet99uk (1) brainbomb
Foxcastle (1) rdrivera2005
Unvote (1) peterlund

End-votes 2/10
Brainbomb is presently set to be lynched.
Day ends in six hours
Still needing to vote: DemonRHK
Still needing to post: DemonRHK

[brainbomb]

Maybe Jamie actually is scum here, hes been far too pedestrian in how hes behaving thus far. He should be way more annoyed by my lack of cooperation.

##Vote Jamie99uk

I should be more annoyed, are you fucking serious? We spent like 5 pages doing nothing but shout at each other, and you'd like me to get more emotional? Give it a fucking rest, you troll.

Yea but you were fake as fuck