M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[Jamiet99uk]

Where is everyone else?

Bunny gave an excuse at least.

[TheMadMonarch]

I too, will ##VOTE dargo for the reasons I have listed above

[BunnyGo]

Whelp, I'm back. And you've all done an awesome job. Congratulations everyone!

Good news, mom's surgeon said the issue was probably minor and sent her home.

Bad news, this post now puts me near the top contributor for the day...

[BunnyGo]

OK, first the mechanics thoughts, then another post on reads.

There are four reasons I can think of that scum would have held the kill (they are not mutually exclusive):

1) They need some cash

2) They think we're more likely to miskill

3) They didn't want damo following them (and needed cash)

4) They couldn't stop a doc save


Some conclusions of each:

1) Scum either bought 2 of the more expensive remaining roles, or used some rolecops. If they bought FV and Tree stump, they'd have 13 for a role and rolecops and RBs. They could have burned through that in many ways.

2) This is always true, as they kill people, we learn more. As we've claimed our roles, they know whom to RB and they know whom we might miskill.

3) Tracking is something that scum need RBs to avoid. If damo (if he's town) or I get it right, that saves us a miskill and may point to more of the team.

4) If dargo is town and damo is scum, maybe scum needed cash to neutralize the doctors


I don't see many other mechanical reasons, at least not without a lot of WIFOM.

[BunnyGo]

Some initial reads from today. While I said that 'if' I died you should look at Jamie, dargo, and damo; I ain't dead yet. And there are different conclusions to be drawn there.

I still wonder about the damo/Jamie lovefest. At this late phase, I doubt they are on different teams. But their reads felt contrived. That said, "contrived' is another way that town just seem confused. It isn't unlikely that scum have more "structured" and "consistent seeming" reads because they *know* what's going on.

The player I keep coming back to is Macca. I worry about the role, I worry about the acting clueless. Macca has been coasting, and every time we start to look, posts something so unbelievable, I keep thinking it has to be preplanned.

In addition, if scum were going to have the cash to burn through a few rolecops and roleblocks. They only bought one more expensive role (white flag not withstanding). I don't see the value in a single doctor. There is some value in a single tracker. But there is the biggest value in a universal backup. It could have been anything. Double voter, or whatever. They may have even thought they'd get the spirit vote. If they took cheap roles for themselves and survived D1, they'd get a good role for it...

##vote Macca

I don't mind the dargo wagon either. I think Macca/dargo isn't unlikely here.

(my final piece coming by mining some Chaqa posts since being stumped)

[BunnyGo]

Some posts of Chaqa's since dying that I think give some intel:

"As if anyone would let me actively make decisions" (referring to whose idea the TS was). Some interesting things:

1) Chaqa is tacitly admitting he wasn't the recruit. Had he been trying for misdirection, he'd have said "maybe I was recruited? Who can remember?" But he didn't. He forgot to.

2) Because he forgot that, he was bluffing instead about who made the decisions. I'm guessing Chaqa did based on the deflection. And TS is exactly the annoying Chaqa play. The other thing Chaqa would do: choose Universal Backup! He LOVES swinging away on random chance.

"The mafia team say they will trade the identity of their team if you guys vote no-kill."

1) At first glance this post was stupid and utterly forgettable. But then they DID vote no-kill.

2) So, we can learn that Chaqa is bleeding intel, I don't think we can learn more from this individual post, but that he was being too cute is clear.

Finally this post:

viewtopic.php?p=190595#p190595

He talks about ghug's death. And he's saying that kgray is also town. I'm not entirely sure what level of WIFOM to take here. But I think it's not great for kgray (simply based on the level of lies for the previous two posts).

[BunnyGo]

So...putting the mechanics, reads, and Chaqa together, I think the remaining scumteam is probably:

dargo, macca, kgray.

I expect Chaqa was the lead of dargo, macca, chaqa. And pushed them to let him be TS, and hide UB on macca. And recruit kgray.

The level and number of "slips" by Macca is exactly the sort of BS overacting and swing for the fences play that chaqa would endorse in a teammate known for slipping.

[BunnyGo]

And with those posts, I am somehow the top poster of the day (by word count). Good night.

[TheMadMonarch]

This whole lot seems pretty cool, but I'm not scum.

I understand that you don't know it now, but once the game ends and you see that I am town, I hope that you will all see that I am simply this forgetful/unobservant.

None of these slips are forced, I just don't see things.

[TheMadMonarch]

And with those posts, I am somehow the top poster of the day (by word count). Good night.

Good night!

[rdrivera2005]

@Rdrivera: You're my joint top townread, but you've posted less frequently today than Fluminator and he's a ghost that isn't allowed to speak. Let us have your thoughts, please? Help us find another scum today. This is the day for you to make some effort. Town needs you.

I am really sorry about this and unfortunately it won't get much better today This weekend we have elections here and I work on the electoral section. Yesterday was the preparation and briefing that is usually quick butv with COVID we had to change all the protocols and it took the whole day.

Today it starts at 7 AM and goes to 6 PM. At least I won't miss EOD.

[rdrivera2005]

My thoughts now.

We have two options:

The two roleblocks were true. Then scum have at most 8 to spend and one role must be FV (on my POV, the other is PV), which means Dargo is scum and two of Macca, Bunny and Damo.

One or more roleblock are a lie. Then some of the FH are scum (I bet on Kgray) and we can't read much from the roles as they could have picked two 4 or 5 points role or still took FV and have some spare cash to rolecops.

I just keep bouncing from one option to other.

At this moment I will go with my gut feeling from most of the game, plus the one that almost get a win to scum yesterday.

##vote Kgray

[damo666]

Some posts of Chaqa's since dying that I think give some intel:

"As if anyone would let me actively make decisions" (referring to whose idea the TS was). Some interesting things:

1) Chaqa is tacitly admitting he wasn't the recruit. Had he been trying for misdirection, he'd have said "maybe I was recruited? Who can remember?" But he didn't. He forgot to.

2) Because he forgot that, he was bluffing instead about who made the decisions. I'm guessing Chaqa did based on the deflection. And TS is exactly the annoying Chaqa play. The other thing Chaqa would do: choose Universal Backup! He LOVES swinging away on random chance.

"The mafia team say they will trade the identity of their team if you guys vote no-kill."

1) At first glance this post was stupid and utterly forgettable. But then they DID vote no-kill.

2) So, we can learn that Chaqa is bleeding intel, I don't think we can learn more from this individual post, but that he was being too cute is clear.

Finally this post:

viewtopic.php?p=190595#p190595

He talks about ghug's death. And he's saying that kgray is also town. I'm not entirely sure what level of WIFOM to take here. But I think it's not great for kgray (simply based on the level of lies for the previous two posts).

Of course Chaqa isn't the recruit. Who'd have him lol.

If he was the original team has to be

Macca Bunny or FH + rdr + darg

Unlikely due to the necessary presence of rdr but in any case darg is present.

I just cannot see how darg cannot be scum.

[damo666]

In scenario 3 of my long post (1 RB true 1 false) I neglected the possibility of the single scum FH being the recruit. In this case the possible pairings in the original team with Chaqa are 2 from BDMR. If we discount rdr we have

BD BM and DM

So, the only problem with a darg vote is if the starting scumteam was precisely Bunny Macca Chaqa with a kgray or Jamie recruit. Although he could be bussing it is interesting to note Bunny is voting Macca, out of all the different possibilities this is the only one that excludes darg so I am still comfortable with my vote there.

I do not envisage moving my vote barring a scumslip so if you are town please strongly consider joining me. There is no guarantee the other current darg voters are town and they may move off.

@townmates if you do a similar analysis to me from your own pov I am sure you will come to the dame conclusion; there are a number of possibilities but the overwhelming majority include darg the FV.

[BunnyGo]

In scenario 3 of my long post (1 RB true 1 false) I neglected the possibility of the single scum FH being the recruit. In this case the possible pairings in the original team with Chaqa are 2 from BDMR. If we discount rdr we have

BD BM and DM

So, the only problem with a darg vote is if the starting scumteam was precisely Bunny Macca Chaqa with a kgray or Jamie recruit. Although he could be bussing it is interesting to note Bunny is voting Macca, out of all the different possibilities this is the only one that excludes darg so I am still comfortable with my vote there.

I do not envisage moving my vote barring a scumslip so if you are town please strongly consider joining me. There is no guarantee the other current darg voters are town and they may move off.

@townmates if you do a similar analysis to me from your own pov I am sure you will come to the dame conclusion; there are a number of possibilities but the overwhelming majority include darg the FV.

I tried reading it. I understand the start, but then as soon as you start using all cap letters for shorthand, I get lost. It seems sometimes you use them for roles (like FV) and other times for combinations of people (eg BD BM and DM). This is beyond confusing.

[damo666]

In scenario 3 of my long post (1 RB true 1 false) I neglected the possibility of the single scum FH being the recruit. In this case the possible pairings in the original team with Chaqa are 2 from BDMR. If we discount rdr we have

BD BM and DM

So, the only problem with a darg vote is if the starting scumteam was precisely Bunny Macca Chaqa with a kgray or Jamie recruit. Although he could be bussing it is interesting to note Bunny is voting Macca, out of all the different possibilities this is the only one that excludes darg so I am still comfortable with my vote there.

I do not envisage moving my vote barring a scumslip so if you are town please strongly consider joining me. There is no guarantee the other current darg voters are town and they may move off.

@townmates if you do a similar analysis to me from your own pov I am sure you will come to the dame conclusion; there are a number of possibilities but the overwhelming majority include darg the FV.

I tried reading it. I understand the start, but then as soon as you start using all cap letters for shorthand, I get lost. It seems sometimes you use them for roles (like FV) and other times for combinations of people (eg BD BM and DM). This is beyond confusing.

Bunny
Darg
Jamie
KGray
Macca
Rdrivera

Faith Healer
Fruit Vendor
Public Vanilla

RoleBlock

How is it confusing ?

I admit the column formatting went awry (Original Team SPACES Cost SPACES recruit) but I still think it's easy to follow. Perhaps you just don't wish to?

[BunnyGo]

Just because some code is uniquely defined, doesn't mean that using the same notation for different concepts isn't confusing.

[BunnyGo]

Just because some code is uniquely defined, doesn't mean that using the same notation for different concepts isn't confusing.

2 letter all caps should be reserved EITHER for names or roles.

[BunnyGo]

Even in your example with underlines is RB:

RoleBlock

or

Rdrivera + Bunny?

[Jamiet99uk]

Some posts of Chaqa's since dying that I think give some intel:

<snip>

"The mafia team say they will trade the identity of their team if you guys vote no-kill."

1) At first glance this post was stupid and utterly forgettable. But then they DID vote no-kill.

You are describing a daytime no-kill and a night-time no-kill by the Mafia as though they are the same thing.

They are not the same thing at all.