MAFIA LVIII (58) - WITCHFINDER GENERAL - GAME THREAD

[TrPrado]

Let's flip Bo today. Depending on how that flies then we flip TrP on Day 5.

This would have looked really bad if bo flipped anything other than he did tbh

Yeah well, not only does he not look bad. He's guaranteed town/3p

Yeah, the more I look at his D4, particularly after my long post, the less likely it looks that he's the last scum, which makes me more confident in my rdr vote.

[damo666]

Ok ##unvote

[damo666]

I was wondering why seth was nk rather an obvtown.

And I thought to myself maybe because the last scum IS an obvtown but then I thought if the last scum was an obvtown surely you would kill another obvtown to keep the dodgy suspect list as long as possible.

Conclusion: the obvtowns must actually be town. (Bozo durga EMC summit TrPrado worcej).

Part 2 to follow.

[damo666]

I hope the remaining goon has the sense to not NK me but I suspect this is my last night.

Vote Bob D5 and Seth D6.

Hopefully game will be over. At the very least Mafia should be gone*. If 3p still alive I would try HB D7. After that if the game is still going you'll just have to guess.

* If there is a goon still alive it would have to be rdr but I'd be surprised.

Considering the above neither HB nor rdr are likely to NK seth as that brings nearer their demise.

So we are left with Bob and Fox.

It could be a last desperate play by Bob to try put us off.

I suggest we kill Bob and if he flips town or 3p kill Fox tomorrow.

[damo666]

##vote BobMcBob

[damo666]

Of course there is the nagging doubt that I've been left alive because I'm barking up the wrong tree!

[damo666]

There are only 3 players whose votes can be interpreted as possibly scum motivated every day, these are HamB red and Bob. As stated previously I find it highly unlikely rdr or HB* would NK seth so I am pretty convinced Bob is 4th man.

* also in HBs favour is he was voted for by both ghug and Chaqa.

EMC Bozo durga and summit have voting patterns that are extremely unlikely as scum.

EMC has also received a scumvote.

Worcej escapes due to his self vote (and was voted for by bo on day 3).

Fox is the weakest exclusion, his d4 vote on Bo his only saving grace.

TrPrado escapes due to day 2 vote and the Bo case.

It just has to be Bob doesn't it?

[damo666]

Sorry, rdr not red

[rdrivera2005]

Back to ##vote Bob then, I wanted to kill this slot since D1.

[worcej]

And frankly I fêel like I've read ghug quite well so far so I feel like I should be trusted on this but if y'all really wanna flip HB first I can't stop you.

I don't see why Bob wouldn't make this kill, not that I know much about Bob.

I also think it's kinda foolish to base our dk on the Nk because it's soooo wifom

So like, let's just pick someone scummy and not worry about It alright?

Goodnight

I bet you are a fun drunk IRL.

I am confident in my VCA that Bob should be flipped at this point, but I would entertain a TrPrado flip as well.

WIFOM says he is the dark horse.

##vote Trprado

Ah yes, I do love a bit of good old VCA on someone who's never been online at EoD. I wouldn't say it's an accurate comparison, especially since I'm almost certain I would've switched wagons had I been on at any of those EoDs.

The VCA isn’t based only on your votes - it’s also based on the 3 known scum.

[worcej]

Fine! Back to Bob it is, which is what I want anyways.

##vote Bob

[Foxcastle]

I haven't caught up on anything since EON, so I'm just looking at the vote count. Does town really not have a more original idea than re-running Rdrivera and me?

What on earth is the scum case on either of us that explains D4? At least one of us is town (and I believe it is both of us), so in the case where the other is scum, they... what? Just backed right off and created space for Bo to get hanged? Bo was obviously out of pocket (away from game), so if one of us was scum, we'd probably be counting on him to show up and make a decisive play with the excuse that he hasn't read up. But somehow you think that I'm pushing Bo into second place (creating Scum V Scum wagons in the case that I'm scum!?) 3+ hours before EOD?

[Foxcastle]

-We need to hit the last mafioso.

-Then PR's claim.

-Then we start killing, and we have to do this with some randomness thrown in.

-If multiple PRs are still alive they should be valid kill targets to us.

-If we face fakeclaims then we are dealing with the witch. Perhaps the warlock might try fakeclaiming one of the claimed PRs trying to get them killed while prediciting it the night before.. This would only work if they have two successful kills.

You want to kill un-cc'd PR claims? How on earth does that work?

[damo666]

I haven't caught up on anything since EON, so I'm just looking at the vote count. Does town really not have a more original idea than re-running Rdrivera and me?

What on earth is the scum case on either of us that explains D4? At least one of us is town (and I believe it is both of us), so in the case where the other is scum, they... what? Just backed right off and created space for Bo to get hanged? Bo was obviously out of pocket (away from game), so if one of us was scum, we'd probably be counting on him to show up and make a decisive play with the excuse that he hasn't read up. But somehow you think that I'm pushing Bo into second place (creating Scum V Scum wagons in the case that I'm scum!?) 3+ hours before EOD?

Good post. Strengthens the Bob case by default.

[Durga]

I haven't caught up on anything since EON, so I'm just looking at the vote count. Does town really not have a more original idea than re-running Rdrivera and me?

What on earth is the scum case on either of us that explains D4? At least one of us is town (and I believe it is both of us), so in the case where the other is scum, they... what? Just backed right off and created space for Bo to get hanged? Bo was obviously out of pocket (away from game), so if one of us was scum, we'd probably be counting on him to show up and make a decisive play with the excuse that he hasn't read up. But somehow you think that I'm pushing Bo into second place (creating Scum V Scum wagons in the case that I'm scum!?) 3+ hours before EOD?

Good post. Strengthens the Bob case by default.

This makes sense for fox being town but doesn't necessarily help rdr.

[damo666]

@durga

why would scumrdr kill seth? He would be the obvious next dk after Bob.

[Hamilton Brian]

Alright, sober and just finished up a 10+ mile run.

Something that occured to me during that run, because it's a long time to think alone, is that the Seth NK buys the lone mafia more time. Hear me out, because it is a little dumb. It's obvious Seth and I have had a running back=and-forth. Mafia might look at that and think, "NK Seth and all fingers will point to HB because he's not bright and it's plausible he'd go for the animosity kill."

It reduces the player pool by two making it increasingly difficult moving forward.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 5.2

BobMcMob (3) Damo666, Rdrivera2005, worcej
Rdrivera2005 (2) durga, TrPrado
Foxcastle (2) Bozotheclown, summit_fever

BobMcBob is set to be hanged.

29hrs 50min remain in Day Five.

[Durga]

@durga

why would scumrdr kill seth? He would be the obvious next dk after Bob.

I personally don't enjoy reading one way or another into a NK. We don't know why they did it and we can't assume to know. Look, it's throwing you off so if he did do it it would be somewhat effective wouldn't it? My best guess would be that it was to kill a potential cop and they don't want to spread the rb around to clear people.

Best thing to do here is to reread bo and see if we can figure it out probably. But I'm not gonna clear rdr bc the Nk was dumb

[summit_fever]

-We need to hit the last mafioso.

-Then PR's claim.

-Then we start killing, and we have to do this with some randomness thrown in.

-If multiple PRs are still alive they should be valid kill targets to us.

-If we face fakeclaims then we are dealing with the witch. Perhaps the warlock might try fakeclaiming one of the claimed PRs trying to get them killed while prediciting it the night before.. This would only work if they have two successful kills.

You want to kill un-cc'd PR claims? How on earth does that work?

Yeah it was a quick idea. It doesn't work because the warlock wouldn't be forced to choose from a larger pool.