M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

Also, you are referring to 8 players out of 12 that were on the wagons at 4-4, so at least 5 town, and you did not list the primary reason why we did not move our vote as soon as the vote became tied, which is that we were voting for the player we preferred to see lynched.

[Chaqa]

I tend to agree. And I like that one of my stronger townreads is essentially a town clear now, makes me feel like my mafia-dar is working.

Xorx is my preferred vote. Damo does seem a bit more towny today, but I'd still vote for him over my firmer townreads. Summit, Neph, and Tom are all hovering around that nebulous scum area with worcej (though his claim gives him the benefit of the doubt for now).

Bozo and Kgray seem town enough to me. Vecna, so far, seems like town!Vecna.

xorx-Tom-Summit or maybe xorx-damo-Neph scumteams?

[worcej]

rdrivera's flash onto damo and then flipping town is not interesting in the least?

It was interesting until he flipped town.

[kgray]

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat). Both of them were leery enough of xorxes on D1 that they could have justifiably moved from damo to xorxes if damo is town and xorxes is scum. And, again, given that xorxes null-reads them, leaving this out is best explained as an intentional misstep by xorxes to build his damo-Chaqa-foodcoats scum team.

I don't understand this part, food. Xorxes is obviously posting from town!xorxes perspective, whether or not he is actually town, so his analysis would assume he's town. And, from your perspective, if xorxes were scum and Summit and I his teammates, why would we want to justify a move to xorxes when damo is town?

Also, I did post specific reads. They're here.

[worcej]

rdrivera's flash onto damo and then flipping town is not interesting in the least?

worcej claiming vig with a shot on emc isn't more interesting than me voting damo after rdrivera?

No, because your action led to a tie vote on D1. Mine was irrelevant of that.

[kgray]

@Tom Bombadil

After writing out that post and realizing xorxes' logic was far shoddier than I initially anticipated - I literally started my last post just to say, "xorx and damo not scum together" - I want you to go and read xorxes properly. If you are town, as you say you are, you better get your sword, shield and Pegasus and be ready to fight it out for xorxes or come to the side of town and lynch scum. You have claimed you do not want to lynch xorxes because he is such an asset to town, but he has made completely ridiculous statements both D1 and D2. Even if he is town - which he is very likely not; xorxes would not play so badly as town - he is not an asset when he is making up such complete garbage logic.

This was my point with him citing nonexistent scum!kgray meta for his read of me D1. I really think town xorxes would have a better basis for his reads.

[foodcoats]

Maybe, but I expect he is more likely to adhere to his instincts as town than as scum.

Not sure where you're going with this anyway, I did not need a reason to vote for damo other than self-preservation.

This is a very interesting catch by bozo about damo.

By Tom's logic, damo stepping out of his "reg" mode implies he is town.

Tom, what do you think of this? Do you think this would mean damo is more likely town because he is being "risky"? Or do you think it is as xorxes says, that damo is actually likely to play against type when he is scum? Or do you think it is NAI?

I’m not sure where I ever implied “stepping out of “reg” mode” implies someone is town”. I don’t understand how you came to that conclusion.

I don’t really know what damos normal play is. I have not taken meta into account in my read of him at all

Sorry, I meant with reference to your statement that scum tend to play more carefully, which is why you did not think xorxes' comments about kgray were scum-indicative.

I'm curious if you think this applies in damo's case in any way, since the claim here is that damo normally townreads xorxes when he is either alignment, but in this game he has scumread xorxes early. Is that more likely to indicate he is scum or he is town, based on the heuristic that scum are more careful?

[worcej]

Obviously I vote to save myself. Worcej's comment is laughable.

Xorxes's vote on me is NAI just as mine on him is.

I slightly disagree with Xorxes' analysis that if we are both town scum could easily have untied it to get a kill, despite the fact there was very limited time any scum switching late would look very dodgy following a townflip so I think if we are both town the scum team has wider possibilities than Xorxes thinks.

If Xorxes is scum I am pretty sure summit must be his teammate.

Neph not moving his vote is very odd. It only makes sense if it were SvS and I can assure that was not the case.

It's late for me here in UK so will do some more thinking of possible scumteams that fit yesterday's vote but basically it must be Xorxes, summit and Tom or kgray OR
1 or 2 from food/bozo/worcej/chaqa with 2 or 1 from kgray/tom/summit
OR 1 + 1 + Neph with the latter trying some sort of 'can't be scum otherwise I'd have voted kind' of thing

Gun to head my current guess would be bozo, worcej and summit

Oh, it's laughable that I think self preservation in a TEAM game is stupid? What value did saving yourself provide us?

Your reads from above are nothing new and nothing insightful, like what a flip would've provided.

[Tom Bombadil]

I don’t think that has to do with scum being more careful. I don’t think damos push on xorxes was an indication of his careful or carelessness - so NAI.

[foodcoats]

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat). Both of them were leery enough of xorxes on D1 that they could have justifiably moved from damo to xorxes if damo is town and xorxes is scum. And, again, given that xorxes null-reads them, leaving this out is best explained as an intentional misstep by xorxes to build his damo-Chaqa-foodcoats scum team.

I don't understand this part, food. Xorxes is obviously posting from town!xorxes perspective, whether or not he is actually town, so his analysis would assume he's town. And, from your perspective, if xorxes were scum and Summit and I his teammates, why would we want to justify a move to xorxes when damo is town?

Also, I did post specific reads. They're here.

Derp, I totally missed your readslist. Well, more townie points for you, then.

I addressed earlier in response to xorxes that xorxes' case does make sense from his perspective as he claims to be town. I retract those parts of my analysis, but I'm holding onto my scumread of xorxes' absolutely irrational claim that scum!food would want to deny town!xorxes autotowning scum!Chaqa.

[worcej]

DAY ONE FINAL VOTE COUNT

damo666(5) - kgray, Tom Bombadil, rdrivera2005, Summit_fever, xorxes
xorxes(5) - foodcoats, bozotheclown, worcej, Chaqa, Damo666
worcej(1) - Nephthys(End)

EMC failed to vote and will be replaced out (I have subs available).

If this appears inaccurate, PM me within the next three minutes.

Otherwise KEEP HOLDING.

TLDR we have 8 super proud people here....

D1 getting a lynch is important...

Weird that other than you and me, everyone else is kinda like 'man I understand why damo saved himself' while also feeling this way.

[worcej]

I disagree with worcej. I would always tie to save myself as town.

I think Neph coming in ten mintues before deadline and then not voting one of the wagons is less than pathetic.

So you'd rather I vote based on no reading?

Just curious

Correct. Unless you know that one of them is town, I an uneducated guess is better than a tie.

Why is it okay that Damo forced a tie to save himself, but Neph is in the wrong for not being the executioner?

[kgray]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

It wouldn't have been tied if you hadn't shown up and voted at the last minute (which it literally was the last minute - that's not spurious). Anyone who was happy with you being the lynch had no reason to switch to xorxes to break a tie before you voted because it was not clear at all that you would be here to vote to save yourself.

[worcej]

its a bit odd that worcej just jumped the shark on the assumptions he made after claiming he tried to shoot me, no?

Theres 3 other things that couldve happened yet he instantly assumes he's shooting blanks.

Would be a bit odd to jump into that pool as mafia now, but it might be the correct play.

That would be an interesting scum play, to fake claim before the town Vigs are revealed.

Interesting, yes, but not unreasonable since we know there are two of them. If worcej is lying, neither of the real vigs would have a reason to counterclaim. Until one flips or claims, then the other wouldn't have any reason to suspect worcej is lying, and we might all just treat him as semi-clear in the meantime. Could also be why worcej is so adamant that the other vig NOT claim.

Or I don't want them to get RB'ed before they shoot?

[Chaqa]

Day 1 blame falls on:
- Neph for not casting a relevant vote
- EMC for not casting a vote
- Summit for casting a vote that would obviously cause a potential tie
- Others for not moving
(tl;dr everyone)

I don't think it falls on xorxes or damo for voting to protect themselves.

[worcej]

its a bit odd that worcej just jumped the shark on the assumptions he made after claiming he tried to shoot me, no?

Theres 3 other things that couldve happened yet he instantly assumes he's shooting blanks.

Would be a bit odd to jump into that pool as mafia now, but it might be the correct play.

Or it is better to let the other Vig know their shot is real? I don't care what anyone else thinks about it - that other person should now know they have a loaded gun.

This doesn't make sense to me. Both vigs should assume they have a loaded gun, so why would you think you needed to let the "real" vig know they're legit?

Because they now know their shot will result in a death and can act accordingly if they were concerned.

You haven't played much with me, so I'll spell my play style out - I do what I want, when I want, and how I want. If you want to Monday Morning QB me, go for it, but I'll always surprise you.

[damo666]

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

You had not posted since 38 minutes before EOD, your online status was hidden, you said you came online with barely enough time to vote to force the tie, but it should have been obvious to everyone else that you would tie the vote?

Yes. If Xorxes voted for me I was bound to vote for him. I had not indicated I would be absent EOD. My online status has been hidden for many games now, totally NAI.

[Vecna]

So unless scum are being tricky, my obvious conclusion is that scumteam is one of: (Tom, worcej, Vecna) or (damo, [food, bozo, worcej, Chaqa])

Based on my previous townreads of Tom and emc/Vecna, I will for now focus on the second possibility, which gives me damo and, if I'm right about bozo being town, and worcej's claim goes unchallenged, that would leave food and Chaqa.

It might also explain why foodcoats was so agitated that I was "assuming" that Chaqa was town with my Neph vote.

Can you explain your scum team guesses a little more? I’m a little confused on the reasoning behind then. Is it purely people who voted for you or weren’t online at EoD??

I explained in a previous post, but here it is again:

CASE 1: damo is town

If this is the case, scum would have been happy to lynch either one of me and damo, and so the only scumteam that could not do that is (Tom, worcej, emc/Vecna) because everyone else was here at EOD and could have moved to mislynch one of us.

CASE 2: damo is scum

In this case, scum could have lynched me unless the two scum were already voting for me when damo voted. Or one of them was Tom or emc/Vecna who apparently were not here. That means in this case scumteam is damo plus two of (Tom, emc/Vecna, bozo, worcej, food, Chaqa).

Excluding my towreads Tom/Vecna/bozo, and giving worcej the benefit of the doubt about his claim, that leaves (damo, food, Chaqa).

If you are town, worcej would be my top candidate to replace you at this point, because his claim was a bit fishy.

Why would scum prefer to lynch a town over a tie in case of a TvT D1?

Because thats a pretty big assumption that is most likely flawed or at best a 50/50 that underlies this big post

[Chaqa]

Everyone should use online status off to stop that stupid WIFOM/metagamy analysis. I've had mine off for at least 10 games now and it's pretty relaxing to not have to panic if you have time to pop in for a minute and worry someone might see you "1lurk1ing!!!!scum!"

[kgray]

Or it is better to let the other Vig know their shot is real? I don't care what anyone else thinks about it - that other person should now know they have a loaded gun.

This doesn't make sense to me. Both vigs should assume they have a loaded gun, so why would you think you needed to let the "real" vig know they're legit?

Because they now know their shot will result in a death and can act accordingly if they were concerned.

You haven't played much with me, so I'll spell my play style out - I do what I want, when I want, and how I want. If you want to Monday Morning QB me, go for it, but I'll always surprise you.

My point is that neither vig should be shooting with the assumption that they're not the "real" vig anyway. They should assume their shot could result in a death and choose their target with that in mind. It's just weird that you seem to think someone who was told they're a vig wouldn't have that perspective until you tell them they're the "real" one.