M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[kgray]

I will ##VOTE damo to make it a more competitive wagon, but I can go back to Chaqa if there is interest. Or Vecna. Is everyone else townreading Vecna?

I am not particularly townreading Vecna, but I do think he's been townier than you. Damo I do think is scummy.

[kgray]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

Are you asking us to choose between Vecna and Summit for today's lynch just because neither (alleged) shot was successful? There are other possibilities to why neither target died besides one being the tough guy. Do you really think that narrowing the lynch down to these two targets is our best bet at hitting scum?

[kgray]

Im really surprised you guys dont see the huge difference in play from damo between this game and the last.

Kgray also noted this is exactly how he played as town in the game before.

Why is damo scum here?

His reverse-voting thing seemed really contrived.

You're still scumreading him based on his initial xorxes vote? Nothing has strengthened or weakened your read of damo since then?

[kgray]

Chaqa + two of damo/nephthys/tom is my scumteam.

The last thing you said about Neph was that you think he's town. Did something in particular happen that caused you to revert back to your previous scumread of Neph?

[kgray]

I believe both worcej and food for the time being.

Excluding you and worcej, the rest in order of towniness to scuminess

bozo
xorxes
Vecna
kgray
Neph
Chaqa
summit
damo

I don't have a ton of conviction. Summit has seemed townier today, and I'm growing more suspicious of kgray - who has been pretty absent this phase, wasn't night killed and faced no heat d1. I don't think Neph's actions D1 are really alignment indicative as I think as town he could forget about the game and screw up - I find his explanation plausible.

Oh, you were serious about wondering why I wasn't the NK? That can't be a real concern you have... I'm confident that you can think of tons of reasons why scum would choose not to kill me (or literally anyone) so I won't bother typing out a list of wifom possibilities. Why weren't you the NK? You were massively townread D1 too, and have a reputation for being a good player.

Also, at the time of me posting this, I've made basically the same number of posts as you (only two more, but some were after you posted this comment) with almost double the word count. Not sure how that makes me absent?

[kgray]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

The double vote only counts for one day.

[damo666]

Two mislynches away from victory?

Yes. If I'm right there will be a maximum of two town lynches before town triumphs.

I don't understand why you emboldened victory.

Because mislynches lead to scum victory, not town's. We are not closer to victory if we mislynch twice.

You know perfectly well what I mean.

[damo666]

Excuse me, it's early and I can't computer well. Amended above - thank you Damo. (And you have now met the posting requirement. Have a frosty chocolate milkshake as a reward). Vote count in this post is accurate, I think.

Nevermind, it was about this.

Well done

[Vecna]

I agree with your analysis of Xorxes but not necessarily your conclusion. Xorxes' lacks bozo's industry in researching previous games and his memory may just have been faulty. You have a case of sorts but I don't think it's particularly strong.

My bozo vote was based on his early posts with the quotes and no commentary but as you rightly say and as summit has also pointed out he has moved up a gear. I just have a feeling bozo may have latched on to your analysis to try and drive a Xorxes lynch. I am pretty confident they are not both scum and they could both be town.

My vote is staying on bozo chiefly because I'm not sure who else to vote for.

Willing to put Damo as a pretty decent townread after this. He dont produce this stuff as scum.

@Vecna, I reread your walls and this is the post that convinced you that damo is town, correct?

In this post damo agrees with food's analysis of me, but not with its conclusion.

Then he explains his bozo vote, based on bozo's weird initial posts of quotes from previous games. He thinks bozo might have latched onto food's analysis to try to lynch me. He is comfident we are not both scum, but we could both be town.

Is that what you say scum!damo can't produce? Can you elaborate? Is it the blatant hedginess?

To me it reads like he wants to encourage foodcoats but he doesn't want to be responsible for a mislynch. He also throws some shade on bozo, but again it feels more like he wants others to suspect him while he doesn't really.

I mean, im sure we can both agree damo does odd stuff all the time as either alignment. Here I can actually see the reasoning and I feel like he believes what he is throwing out there, as opposed to just going for whatever easy wagon.

Anyways, I have my read there. I really do not care enough or have enough certainty to step in front of everyone questioning him in case im wrong, you can direct your questions of the slot to damo.

[damo666]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

@damo, can you explain more this presumption that if we're both town then all scum were on one wagon? It seems to me that in that case it is far more likely they were distributed on both wagons (or even off wagons, Neph and emc). Why would all scum concentrate on one wagon when the competing wagon was also town?

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

You later amended this to two mislynches away from victory, but how does that work? We are currently 8-3(+1) (because of the double vote). If we mislynch, tomorrow is 6-3(+1), which is mylo. If worcej and food are telling the truth, we don't have a vig shot left. The only way we have more than one mislynch left is if Judicator manages to stop a kill (by saving someone or by commuting the killer).

Aren't you double counting the double vote?

[Vecna]

Some PR thoughts.

Assuming worcej and foodcoats are both telling the truth.

It is very unlikely that the roleblock was used N1, because scum would want to use the cop scan first so as to know more effectively where to use the roleblock, and also because vig hitting scum D1 is more unlikely than D2.

That means that since both vig shots failed, one must have been stopped by the judicator or by the Tough Guy.

The judicator is the only one who knows if they commuted one of worcej/food/emc/summit.

If they didn't commute any of them, then they know one of Vecna/summit is almost certainly scum (unless worcej or food is lying).

Unfortunately, if judicator tells us this today they will almost certainly be killed tonight, so it's probably better to wait. But they should probably speak up at the last minute of the day so that we don't lose that info if they die tonight.

again with the pretense of knowing what scum would do to reason out scumreads and throw shade

[damo666]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

I don't think the big situation implies one of Vecna and summit are probably scum.

I think we can forget the roleblock so it is either commute or Tough Man.

Now who are likely commute targets? Off wagon scumread to roleblock or (more likely) widely read townread as protection.

Of the four candidates food is imo the most likely commute target (for protection). So, I think either food was commuted or Vecna is tough man. Of the 2 I think food bring commuted is more likely.

Of course being the target of either the false big or the commuted big does not preclude them from being tough guy anyway.

And of course either target could be a different scum type.

However, I do not think it is worth pursuing these 2 simply being they were subject of failed vig shots.

FWIW I townread Vecna and scumread summit but that is by the by.

[damo666]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

I don't think the big situation implies one of Vecna and summit are probably scum.

I think we can forget the roleblock so it is either commute or Tough Man.

Now who are likely commute targets? Off wagon scumread to roleblock or (more likely) widely read townread as protection.

Of the four candidates food is imo the most likely commute target (for protection). So, I think either food was commuted or Vecna is tough man. Of the 2 I think food bring commuted is more likely.

Of course being the target of either the false big or the commuted big does not preclude them from being tough guy anyway.

And of course either target could be a different scum type.

However, I do not think it is worth pursuing these 2 simply being they were subject of failed vig shots.

FWIW I townread Vecna and scumread summit but that is by the by.

vig not big

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 2.5

xorxes(4) - Chaqa, foodcoats, Damo666, Vecna
Nephthys(3) - summit_fever, kgray, bozotheclown
summit_fever(2) - worcej, Nephthys
damo666(2) - Tom Bombadil, Xorxes

Currently XORXES is set to be lynched.

10 hours and 10 minutes remain in Day Two.

[xorxes]

My townread of emc has evaporated a bit, and Vecna finding me scummy is in my eyes scummy.

How could your townread of emc have evaporated when emc has done nothing (except be replaced) since your read of him?

Vecna managed to squander it. Just rereading emc I still find him towny, btw.

Chaqa I'm pretty sure is scum by now. He says he had no time at EOD to evaluate things, but made a post evauating exactly how things were. He was happy with both wagons but made no effort to ensure that one of the wagons was lynched.

I'm not sure how this is different from Neph, whom you townread. Just because Chaqa was voting for you?

Correct. Neph could have voted for me and secure a mislynch, but he didn't. So I think that makes him more likely town. Also, at the time he last posted the vote was 4-2-2 and there was no way to predict it would be a tie. It may be that he is scum who was satisfied with that result, and really had to leave for school and was not able to do anything about it when rivera and summit made it a tie. I'm guessing scum would make more of an effort to look like they're doing something with their vote though. I don't really townread him for much more than not voting for me at that point, when he had a good excuse to.

Chaqa could have voted for damo to break a tie but he didn't. And he explicitly mentioned the possibility of a tie in his last post, so he was well aware of the situation.

[xorxes]

I don't have a ton of conviction. Summit has seemed townier today, and I'm growing more suspicious of kgray - who has been pretty absent this phase, wasn't night killed and faced no heat d1.

Also, at the time of me posting this, I've made basically the same number of posts as you (only two more, but some were after you posted this comment) with almost double the word count. Not sure how that makes me absent?

I think different timezones can make you look more absent than what you really are. I'm townleaning both of you, but you both have looked a bit absent to me.

[xorxes]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

The double vote only counts for one day.

If we mislynch at 6-3, the next day is 4-3(+1). They can use the double to force a tie and then the next day is 3-3, we lose.

So 6-3 is not strictly mylo because of the possibility of a save, but if there are no saves, it is mylo, isn't it?

[xorxes]

Yes. If I'm right there will be a maximum of two town lynches before town triumphs.

I don't understand why you emboldened victory.

Because mislynches lead to scum victory, not town's. We are not closer to victory if we mislynch twice.

You know perfectly well what I mean.

I understood after I read the original comment you were amending, but it seemed weird when I read without that context.

In any case, you were wrong about the number of mislynches we can afford.

[xorxes]

I mean, im sure we can both agree damo does odd stuff all the time as either alignment. Here I can actually see the reasoning and I feel like he believes what he is throwing out there, as opposed to just going for whatever easy wagon.

I can see that post going either way.

Anyways, I have my read there. I really do not care enough or have enough certainty to step in front of everyone questioning him in case im wrong, you can direct your questions of the slot to damo.

Yes, but I need to sort you out as well. My point in questioning your read of damo was not to make you scumread him or convince me to townread him but to understand if your read of him was genuine or not. If you just write a one-liner saying this is town damo it doesn't help me very much unless I also see what you see, which in this case I don't.

[xorxes]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

@damo, can you explain more this presumption that if we're both town then all scum were on one wagon? It seems to me that in that case it is far more likely they were distributed on both wagons (or even off wagons, Neph and emc). Why would all scum concentrate on one wagon when the competing wagon was also town?

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

You later amended this to two mislynches away from victory, but how does that work? We are currently 8-3(+1) (because of the double vote). If we mislynch, tomorrow is 6-3(+1), which is mylo. If worcej and food are telling the truth, we don't have a vig shot left. The only way we have more than one mislynch left is if Judicator manages to stop a kill (by saving someone or by commuting the killer).

Aren't you double counting the double vote?

See my response to kgray,

What about the other question?

And are you still voting for me because either way I flip you see it as an almost certain victory?