MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

@Damo: are you even reading my posts?

I've pointed all of this out already

Yes.

I'm doing a reread (just you, rdr, Bozo and fish) and posting anything that looks of note.

Occasionally checking recent pages for new posts.

I'm up to page 50.

You will have to bear with me.

I'm currently about 60:40 rdr:you

[rdrivera2005]

I still think you are town but this post is really bad. If you are town you should not want to sacrifice yourself. Townies have two goals: finding scum and showing they are townies to other town people. Town usually win by forming a town core and not by some next level PR play.

This said, my town core now includes Balki, Koala and Worcej.

I feel Bozo and Chaq seeming just not invested in the game, which is a bit scummy. Lfishcl and Yav are just coasting and are not bad choices too. But I will keep my ##vote Damo, his reads are just platitudes. Town read Bozo for stating the obvious, vibes, feel...

If rdr is scum he listed both teamamtes as poss scum

Did you notice how in that post, he says Bozo is scummy for not being invested, but then also says Bozo is town for "the obvious, vibes, feel..."?

Read again. I was talking about Damo reads that were awful. He was giving a townread to Bozo for stating the obvious and his other reads are just vibes, feel

[Chaqa]

If rdr is scum he listed both teamamtes as poss scum

Did you notice how in that post, he says Bozo is scummy for not being invested, but then also says Bozo is town for "the obvious, vibes, feel..."?

Read again. I was talking about Damo reads that were awful. He was giving a townread to Bozo for stating the obvious and his other reads are just vibes, feel

Ah, yeah i see how you mean.

Odd that Damo wouldn't have picked up on that.

Damo?

[damo666]

You expressed interest in voting Chaqa a few hours ago, are you still interested in that?

I would be yes, been re-catching up but I would be great with a chaqa vote. I would also be good with yav

Why Chaqa and why Yav?

rdr had just voted Chaqa so strange question.

This was just after he rebuked fish for non-participation. This smacks of trying to get his teammate to engage. Tantamount to coaching.

[damo666]

Did you notice how in that post, he says Bozo is scummy for not being invested, but then also says Bozo is town for "the obvious, vibes, feel..."?

Read again. I was talking about Damo reads that were awful. He was giving a townread to Bozo for stating the obvious and his other reads are just vibes, feel

Ah, yeah i see how you mean.

Odd that Damo wouldn't have picked up on that.

Damo?

I read it the way you led me to. I see what rdr means now though. Probably of no importance.

[rdrivera2005]

I also don't like the way Bozo is tryng to disregard the argument on Bo vote on D1 being townie. It looks like scum tryng to keep open a possible miskill.

The bad thing is that on the VT claimants the only one I townread is Balki. I still scumread Damo, Bozo and lfischl and I am torn on Chaqa and null on Bo (assuming he will claim VT, which is likely as I believe the 3 claims).

Either Rivera had perfect scumreads here, or he's bussing.

@Damo: is Rivera generally a busser?

So long since he's been scum I really don't know.

Honestly, I buss when I need to buss. I remember a game I won by bussing Vecna. But why I would buss both teammates to get no credit?

[rdrivera2005]

I would be yes, been re-catching up but I would be great with a chaqa vote. I would also be good with yav

Why Chaqa and why Yav?

rdr had just voted Chaqa so strange question.

This was just after he rebuked fish for non-participation. This smacks of trying to get his teammate to engage. Tantamount to coaching.

Or I want to get someone I suspect and that is just coasting to engage. Go find a game where I coached someone, this never happened.

[Chaqa]

RDR's towntell is still pretty convincing to me. I also had previously mostly discounted a Bozo-RDR team...

my big hangup is would Bozo really quote both of his teammates in order like that?

[damo666]

I still want Damo (or anyone else) refute my math where it seems we don't have any real gain on probabilities to find scum (unless Mafia are all brain dead) if we mass claim today and just expose our PRs.

Scum rdr not wanting a mass claim?

[damo666]

Here is why I would not wait until tomorrow:

We will have at least two deaths between today and tomorrow. Scum do not know yet who those two deaths will be, or what buckets they will be in. I want to force scum to choose what buckets to claim in now so we can make decisions about what buckets to narrow in order to find town clears.

The main advantage from waiting is to keep PRs hidden another night, but there are enough claims out there now that scum probably have enough info to have a good chance at shooting and killing a PR tonight anyway.

That's a decent reasoning, but we would probably still end with equal buckets on chance to get scum, so probably it's best to wait until tomorrow.
The only big motivation to mass claim today is to avoid scum coordination, but I am not sure it's worth.

Again trying to avert a mass claim

[damo666]

As if me jokingly claiming my role early when no one would believe it isn't something I would do.

I literally told brain he caught me as being Godfather once on day 1 or something and I never died.

If you are the watcher, I do not think it was helpful in this setup to be vague about it, and if you are not the watcher and are town, I do not think there is a good reason to risk revealing the watcher through a CC.

This does not look like S=>S

[damo666]

People who have agreed to be here and claim their role at exactly 10:00 am PT
1. Balki
2. Damo VT
3. Worcej Doc
4. Chaqa PR
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

Don't include me in this mess, I will offer no new information until I see fit.

But Chaqa didn't want mass claim either

[damo666]

Also what happened to the chaqa wagon?

Hmmm

[damo666]

CLAIMS

Balki: VT
Bozo:
Bo:
Bunny: PR [not doctor]
Chaqa: VT
damo: VT
Koala:
lfischl: VT
rdr: VT
worcej: doctor

Also updated scum list because someone asked for that,
Chaqa bozo Koala

Does fish nominate BOTH teammates?

[Chaqa]

Don't include me in this mess, I will offer no new information until I see fit.

But Chaqa didn't want mass claim either

I wanted to hold off one more day in the hopes I would be night-killed. It's why I retracted pretty quickly on Day 3.

[damo666]

I think ghug stated good reasons for suspecting bo_sox and did not say anything that would provoke this kind of reaction, and this reminds me of something ghug did to PE once when ghug was mafia and PE made a good case against him. I also remember seeing this kind of thing from bo_sox as mafia before, directed toward me.

I also don't think it is a coincidence that ghug is no longer here to argue his case on bo_sox.

##VOTE bo_sox

I find this case from Bozo to be pretty persuasive.

@Bozo, can you focus on rdrivera and share your thoughts on that slot?

rdrivera typically does not post a lot, but I do not think he has been pushing his scum reads much this game, which may indicate he is mafia.

rdrivera gave some scum reads D2, but did not give a strong opinion on anyone, so he could have just been keeping his voting options open:

Interesting, no-one voted for me so far. So I feel I should post this preemptively, just in case folks do vote for me – I don't want this post to come across as being reactive to that.

- I still believe that following through on the binding vote makes the most sense and is the optimal move. For reasons of Pool of Elimination coupled with yavozovic thread.

- If you disagree, I humbly request that you vote for me. The rules say nothing about surviving being a part of the victory conditions AFAICT, merely that our side wins. So when my role as a Townie will be revealed upon my death, that should give the good Townies enough info to win the game IMHO – assuming they will spend the time to carefully re-read the backscroll of last night and today. So I can "pawn sacrifice" myself and it's a win/win either way in my mind.

Think about it – either the above is sincere, so let me do my "pawn sacrifice" if you are not onboard with the binding vote. Or the above is a reverse psychology attempt by a Mafia, so vote me and kill a Mafia. You win either way!

Thank you in advance!

I still think you are town but this post is really bad. If you are town you should not want to sacrifice yourself. Townies have two goals: finding scum and showing they are townies to other town people. Town usually win by forming a town core and not by some next level PR play.

This said, my town core now includes Balki, Koala and Worcej.

I feel Bozo and Chaq seeming just not invested in the game, which is a bit scummy. Lfishcl and Yav are just coasting and are not bad choices too. But I will keep my ##vote Damo, his reads are just platitudes. Town read Bozo for stating the obvious, vibes, feel...

I still think the most suspicious thing about rdrivera is what I previously pointed out about his first post being similar to his first post last game.

townpoints for rdr?

[damo666]

I am absolutely convinced the scum team are entirely within {Balki, Bozo, Chaqa, lfischl, rdr}

I will consider each of the 10 groups to see if I can eliminate.

Current thoughts on each

Balki - most significant is the CWV retraction but that of itself is NAI. I like his recent unpair comment. Slight townlean.

Bozo - scumread for the Bo vote thing.

Chaqa - torn between him being a vt baiting a nk with the watcher claim or simply scum. Why isn't he dead? Problem is the next three NKs will be the PRs. Can we afford to not kill him?.

Lfischl - looks a bit like previous scum game but I think he'd play like that as town. Make yourself more obvious if you are town.

rdr - very difficult to read. Gets a 60% scumread.

Pretty pleased with this post.

[damo666]

I obviously prefer bo_sox today, but I think the 3 mafia are very likely in bo_sox/rdrivera/damo/lfischl, so I am OK with any of those 4. Since we have at least one mis-kill left, I think if we stay within those 4 we will win the game.

Bozo names both?

[Chaqa]

I'm leaning toward final answer rivera.

[damo666]

What can be gleaned from voting [imo]

Day 1

Balki - nothing
Bozo - nothing
Bo - towny as previously argued
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - he voted for me with votes at 2 each for fish,Bunny, ghug, worcej; he could have voted any of those 3 town to help fish so I would argue this is towny

Day 2

Balki - nothing
Bozo - arguably not scummate with bo
Bo - nothing
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - nothing

Day 3

Balki - moved off rdr when rdr got his second vote, slight suspicion only
Bozo - as per D2
Bo - kinda confirms not scummate with Bozo
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - again arguably not scummate of fish

Summary

Bo and rdr probably town so scumpair in {Chaqa, Bozo, Balki} in that order.

Town!Damo never makes analysis that is this garbage.

Did I have Chaqa worried?