Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[Jamiet99uk]

You didn't name the scum slip I thought I saw....so maybe I'm just reading too much into things

Well, what did you see?

The way he asked his questions assumed there had been a RB. Now that I type that out, I'm probably reading in to it too much.

Fair observation.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bona and Vecna, why sweet? In light of sweet's claim, you're opting to go counter to it. Why?

You would expect Vecna to vote for himself?

[Jamiet99uk]

I just tried to do a reads list and I've come to the conclusion that I really don't have a strong read on very many people; instead I have a long list about what confuses me about each person.

I think we need the Vecna flip, and then decide what to do next.

[sweetandcool]

N1: brainbomb, "RB" Jamiet/ghug
N2: ghug, No RB
N3: damo, RB Sparta
N4: Sparta, RB Bunny

I choose to believe Jamiet was RB by brainbomb, ghug by Mafia. Obviously there is some chance that Jamiet is lying Mafia, but that type of tinfoiling should probably be reserved for F3 if we even make it to that point.

Now, N2 they decide to kill ghug and reserve RB. Mafia would be crazy to not hunt for Clerk, so for some reason, after ghug was RB, they decide he is likely Clerk. This implies that they either saw absolutely nothing in thread suggesting a scan, implying the Clerk was RB and was either ghug or Jamiet.

Hmmmm, so would that imply that ghug's reads were great and Jamiet's were "bad"? And after ghug flipped VT, why did they abandon the plan to continue on by flipping Jamiet? I suppose the answer would probably be that damo made for a convincing Clerk D3.

Okay, then why did Mafia not return to flipping Jamiet N4? I suppose by then Jamiet's contributions must have convinced them he wasn't Clerk. So why RB Sparta N3? And does the NK of Sparta again imply Mafia couldn't find any scan crumbs and so just hoped their RB hit Clerk?

Unfortunately, the loss of the bot for D4/N4 could explain things. Scum would be unlikely to find anything without the bot, unless they found it in the moment. Probably they just NK Sparta because they didn't have a better idea.
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Helpful questions that should be answered:

1. How likely was it that ghug hit 2+ Mafia in his reads D2? Or managed to put out a (completely?) accurate Town list?

2. Who did Jamiet wrongly scum/town during D2?

3. Sparta must have displayed enough accuracy in their reads that Mafia thought there was a reasonable chance he was Clerk. What were those reads?

4. ???
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ANSWERS:

1. ghug Towns Food, Jamiet, Bunny early on, which is 3/3 correct. He also correctly Towns Sparta. He jabs Bozo with a light scumread (incorrect?!). Correctly Towns Bona. Scums Ham (50/50) and rdr (Correct). Supports Sparta's probably 100% correct meta analysis on Will. Pumps out a reads lists that probably 100% correctly places many players into the Town list (except Vecna unless Vecna happens to be Miller). Last notable thing is he strongly protests the Vecna wagon.

2. Jamiet Towns Bona (correctly). Incorrectly scums sweetandcool. Incorrectly scums LoW. Incorrectly scumreads damo. Correctly townreads ghug and Townreads Balki (50/50). Light scumread of Bozo (incorrect?!) and then a scumread of rdr (correct) that comes from absolutely nowhere (so I don't think Mafia would take it seriously one way or another).

Comparing Jamiet and ghug's D2 is like day and night. ghug displayed definite undeniable accuracy, and probably accuracy for certain players who have yet to flip. Jamiet didn't demonstrate very many reads D2, but his focus was heavily on incorrect scumreads (I sympathize here, just reading it again I still can't figure out how LoW wasn't Mafia).
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Given all of this information (plus the crumbs I saw from the Clerk), there seems to be some sort of case for Vecna being Miller.

ghug positively nails 6 Town reads. If Vecna is Miller then 7. If Pirate is Town (which I think) then 8! The remaining 6 players in his Null to Scum range include dead worcej and Town Bona.

So our scumpool is Vecna, Bozo, rdr, Ham, Balki. And maybe a tiny chance ghug was wrong about Pirate. 3 Mafia, 5 slots.
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Okay this post has gotten too long. Investigating question #3 in my next post.

[sweetandcool]

3. D2: Sparta correctly Towns sweetandcool. Could easily be a scan crumb too. Hilariously chooses Vecna for his hypothetical Vecna scans as Mafia example (the way he poses it, I don't think it would exactly alarm Mafia, but still, interesting), leans towards scumming damo, scums LoW, Meta analysis claims that sweetandcool is Town (correct) and Bona and/or rdr is scum (correct). Pushes rdr as the busser (correct). Posts meta analysis that ghug agreed with that is probably extremely accurate. Incorrectly scums LoW and Bona and correctly scum rdr.

Okay, not as good as ghug's D2 but pretty good. And has an obvious scan crumb that Mafia couldn't have missed. This HEAVILY supports the notion that ghug was very accurate. Sparta is the better Clerk candidate, and it's actually a bit of a mystery that scum didn't at least RB him N2. Could Mafia misordered? Did they get so caught up in ghug's accuracy that they forgot that since he was RB his accuracy couldn't have been influenced by a correct scan?

Sparta's D3: I have to go to bed, will revisit this if I have a chance. But INSANELY IMPORTANT INFO!!!!! ghug practically solved the game before he died and Mafia fearkilled him.

[sweetandcool]

I would like to apologize for how difficult that all is to read. The post was expected to be quite a bit smaller. It ended up being me just writing it for myself essentially, so that I won't forget it in the morning.

But yeah, I really hope it helps.

I also think the Cop should claim at least an hour before EoD. Otherwise I am strongly considering revealing the other scans I found.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Sweet:

Question: You have declared several of my D2 reads to be correct or incorrect. Some of those people are still alive. So by "correct" you just mean "corresponding to my (Sweet's) own reads", yes?

Observation: You have used your analysis here to arrive at a scum PoE. But you earlier said you were aware of a second copscan guilty, in addition to Vecna. I assume that person is included in the pool, but that you are deliberately faking a portion of your analysis to protect the Cop.

[BunnyGo]

N1: brainbomb, "RB" Jamiet/ghug
N2: ghug, No RB
N3: damo, RB Sparta
N4: Sparta, RB Bunny

I choose to believe Jamiet was RB by brainbomb, ghug by Mafia. Obviously there is some chance that Jamiet is lying Mafia, but that type of tinfoiling should probably be reserved for F3 if we even make it to that point.

Now, N2 they decide to kill ghug and reserve RB. Mafia would be crazy to not hunt for Clerk, so for some reason, after ghug was RB, they decide he is likely Clerk. This implies that they either saw absolutely nothing in thread suggesting a scan, implying the Clerk was RB and was either ghug or Jamiet.

Hmmmm, so would that imply that ghug's reads were great and Jamiet's were "bad"? And after ghug flipped VT, why did they abandon the plan to continue on by flipping Jamiet? I suppose the answer would probably be that damo made for a convincing Clerk D3.

Okay, then why did Mafia not return to flipping Jamiet N4? I suppose by then Jamiet's contributions must have convinced them he wasn't Clerk. So why RB Sparta N3? And does the NK of Sparta again imply Mafia couldn't find any scan crumbs and so just hoped their RB hit Clerk?

Unfortunately, the loss of the bot for D4/N4 could explain things. Scum would be unlikely to find anything without the bot, unless they found it in the moment. Probably they just NK Sparta because they didn't have a better idea.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Helpful questions that should be answered:

1. How likely was it that ghug hit 2+ Mafia in his reads D2? Or managed to put out a (completely?) accurate Town list?

2. Who did Jamiet wrongly scum/town during D2?

3. Sparta must have displayed enough accuracy in their reads that Mafia thought there was a reasonable chance he was Clerk. What were those reads?

4. ???
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ANSWERS:

1. ghug Towns Food, Jamiet, Bunny early on, which is 3/3 correct. He also correctly Towns Sparta. He jabs Bozo with a light scumread (incorrect?!). Correctly Towns Bona. Scums Ham (50/50) and rdr (Correct). Supports Sparta's probably 100% correct meta analysis on Will. Pumps out a reads lists that probably 100% correctly places many players into the Town list (except Vecna unless Vecna happens to be Miller). Last notable thing is he strongly protests the Vecna wagon.

2. Jamiet Towns Bona (correctly). Incorrectly scums sweetandcool. Incorrectly scums LoW. Incorrectly scumreads damo. Correctly townreads ghug and Townreads Balki (50/50). Light scumread of Bozo (incorrect?!) and then a scumread of rdr (correct) that comes from absolutely nowhere (so I don't think Mafia would take it seriously one way or another).

Comparing Jamiet and ghug's D2 is like day and night. ghug displayed definite undeniable accuracy, and probably accuracy for certain players who have yet to flip. Jamiet didn't demonstrate very many reads D2, but his focus was heavily on incorrect scumreads (I sympathize here, just reading it again I still can't figure out how LoW wasn't Mafia).
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Given all of this information (plus the crumbs I saw from the Clerk), there seems to be some sort of case for Vecna being Miller.

ghug positively nails 6 Town reads. If Vecna is Miller then 7. If Pirate is Town (which I think) then 8! The remaining 6 players in his Null to Scum range include dead worcej and Town Bona.

So our scumpool is Vecna, Bozo, rdr, Ham, Balki. And maybe a tiny chance ghug was wrong about Pirate. 3 Mafia, 5 slots.
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Okay this post has gotten too long. Investigating question #3 in my next post.

Your third paragraph was wrong.

We talked about it in thread day 2 and then day 3. We were teaching them and telling them how we’d read it.

When they held their RB we assumed one thing. And said what we’d assume otherwise. This is why I assumed the Sparta RB was fake..:we told them we wouldn’t.

[BunnyGo]

Sweet: question one is full of framing bias and assumptions. Why would you assume having good reads gets ghug dead? They KNEW he hadn’t scanned anything.

Why would you assume Jamie has bad reads? Scum have been cop hunting (probably). His reads have little to do with that.

Your first answer is too early it can’t be a cop tell at all.

Even if Jamie were the cop he can only be informed of NOTHING day 2.

I think you’re a bit off, mate.

[BunnyGo]

I would like to apologize for how difficult that all is to read. The post was expected to be quite a bit smaller. It ended up being me just writing it for myself essentially, so that I won't forget it in the morning.

But yeah, I really hope it helps.

I also think the Cop should claim at least an hour before EoD. Otherwise I am strongly considering revealing the other scans I found.

This is terrible advice. So so so so so so bad.

The cop should not claim. So long as you (or I) believe sweet (and diplo) are telling the truth , then stay hidden.

And sweet should shut his mouth and not give away secrets. Should have ended so he can’t mess around.

If people want to continue hypoclaimia:

If I’m the cop I scanned nobody last night because I was ROLEBLOCKED!!

[Jamiet99uk]

Hype:

If I am the Cop, I scanned King of the Pirates last night (inno).

[Hamilton Brian]

If I am the cop, I scanned jamie (inno).

[bozotheclown]

N1: brainbomb, "RB" Jamiet/ghug
N2: ghug, No RB
N3: damo, RB Sparta
N4: Sparta, RB Bunny

I choose to believe Jamiet was RB by brainbomb, ghug by Mafia. Obviously there is some chance that Jamiet is lying Mafia, but that type of tinfoiling should probably be reserved for F3 if we even make it to that point.

Now, N2 they decide to kill ghug and reserve RB. Mafia would be crazy to not hunt for Clerk, so for some reason, after ghug was RB, they decide he is likely Clerk. This implies that they either saw absolutely nothing in thread suggesting a scan, implying the Clerk was RB and was either ghug or Jamiet.

Hmmmm, so would that imply that ghug's reads were great and Jamiet's were "bad"? And after ghug flipped VT, why did they abandon the plan to continue on by flipping Jamiet? I suppose the answer would probably be that damo made for a convincing Clerk D3.

Okay, then why did Mafia not return to flipping Jamiet N4? I suppose by then Jamiet's contributions must have convinced them he wasn't Clerk. So why RB Sparta N3? And does the NK of Sparta again imply Mafia couldn't find any scan crumbs and so just hoped their RB hit Clerk?

Unfortunately, the loss of the bot for D4/N4 could explain things. Scum would be unlikely to find anything without the bot, unless they found it in the moment. Probably they just NK Sparta because they didn't have a better idea.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Helpful questions that should be answered:

1. How likely was it that ghug hit 2+ Mafia in his reads D2? Or managed to put out a (completely?) accurate Town list?

2. Who did Jamiet wrongly scum/town during D2?

3. Sparta must have displayed enough accuracy in their reads that Mafia thought there was a reasonable chance he was Clerk. What were those reads?

4. ???
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANSWERS:

1. ghug Towns Food, Jamiet, Bunny early on, which is 3/3 correct. He also correctly Towns Sparta. He jabs Bozo with a light scumread (incorrect?!). Correctly Towns Bona. Scums Ham (50/50) and rdr (Correct). Supports Sparta's probably 100% correct meta analysis on Will. Pumps out a reads lists that probably 100% correctly places many players into the Town list (except Vecna unless Vecna happens to be Miller). Last notable thing is he strongly protests the Vecna wagon.

2. Jamiet Towns Bona (correctly). Incorrectly scums sweetandcool. Incorrectly scums LoW. Incorrectly scumreads damo. Correctly townreads ghug and Townreads Balki (50/50). Light scumread of Bozo (incorrect?!) and then a scumread of rdr (correct) that comes from absolutely nowhere (so I don't think Mafia would take it seriously one way or another).

Comparing Jamiet and ghug's D2 is like day and night. ghug displayed definite undeniable accuracy, and probably accuracy for certain players who have yet to flip. Jamiet didn't demonstrate very many reads D2, but his focus was heavily on incorrect scumreads (I sympathize here, just reading it again I still can't figure out how LoW wasn't Mafia).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Given all of this information (plus the crumbs I saw from the Clerk), there seems to be some sort of case for Vecna being Miller.

ghug positively nails 6 Town reads. If Vecna is Miller then 7. If Pirate is Town (which I think) then 8! The remaining 6 players in his Null to Scum range include dead worcej and Town Bona.

So our scumpool is Vecna, Bozo, rdr, Ham, Balki. And maybe a tiny chance ghug was wrong about Pirate. 3 Mafia, 5 slots.
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Okay this post has gotten too long. Investigating question #3 in my next post.

Why does Jamie have to be town who was jailed N1 or "lying Mafia"? Why not mafia who was jailed?

If Jamie was not RBed by the mafia, why did they "abandon the plan" by not NKing him?

[Jamiet99uk]

These are good questions from Bozo.

If I was Mafia, jailed by a Jailor (Brainbomb) who had subsequently died, I think it is highly likely I would claim the Roleblock. (I am not Mafia here, and I was Roleblocked by someone N1, but Bozo's challenge to your analysis is entirely valid).

As Bunny (and also Bozo) is highlighting here, your wallpost of analysis either (a) contains a lot of assumptions which you are presenting as certainties, or (b) is based on some information which town would generally not be in possession of.

[bozotheclown]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

[bozotheclown]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

That should say "with the assumption that Vecna is mafia".

[bozotheclown]

I really don't get this list. Why Bunny and HB? They look towny to me.

How on earth does HB look towny to anyone? I heard 1 person say they sound happy, and thats the only reasoning I heard so far.

Ive talked about the bunny read in-depth. Dude was way too fast to pass off a TR on me just because I pointed out he missed a single post number. Then he sheeped me twice on scummy people, in such a way as he set them up for justifiable future votes. Then he used another overly simplistic reason to TR me later on. All felt very artificial to me, but im sure its one of those occasions where you only notice it if it involves you.

I tend to think Bunny doing this kind of antics is more likely town then scum , but of course it can be faked. Agree that setting possible votes could be scum keeping his options open, but I will need to re-read to look at this as I skipped some pages last night and I am barely keeping updated today.

This discussion near D1 EOD looks like mafia distancing.

[Jamiet99uk]

It may be possible that Vecna is the miller, but I doubt he is town at this point.

With the bot available again I have been able to review the game, and with the assumption that Vecna is town, I now think rdrivera and kingofthepirates are the most likely D1 bussers.

What changed your mind about Sweet?

[Jamiet99uk]

How on earth does HB look towny to anyone? I heard 1 person say they sound happy, and thats the only reasoning I heard so far.

Ive talked about the bunny read in-depth. Dude was way too fast to pass off a TR on me just because I pointed out he missed a single post number. Then he sheeped me twice on scummy people, in such a way as he set them up for justifiable future votes. Then he used another overly simplistic reason to TR me later on. All felt very artificial to me, but im sure its one of those occasions where you only notice it if it involves you.

I tend to think Bunny doing this kind of antics is more likely town then scum , but of course it can be faked. Agree that setting possible votes could be scum keeping his options open, but I will need to re-read to look at this as I skipped some pages last night and I am barely keeping updated today.

This discussion near D1 EOD looks like mafia distancing.

Rdr distancing himself from BunnyGo?

[bozotheclown]

Considering the current wagons I would vote for Balki or Will.
Balki is useful as town and also a possible NK, so ##vote Just

Besides this looking like pocketing of Balki, rdrivera was not only in M1027, where Just played a great game as a town PR, but rdrivera was on the mafia team that Just helped defeat, so the implication that Just is not "useful as town" looks fabricated.