You've made a decent case for stabbing Italy now. It seems a safe bet Tyrolia moves to Munich. And if you knew Italy won't get a build, you'd be pretty well assured of capturing Rome next year. And then the beast is defanged. But looking at Holland, I'm not so sure Italy won't get a build. England played weak support-holds on Kiel last turn. If he does that again, Italy probably gets Holland. On the other hand, if you don't stab, Italy maybe gets to 14. Ankara is 15 ... Hm indeed.DougJoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:43 pmI ended up building in Bud, then in the spring, moved the following:DougJoe wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:26 pmI decided to click Ready...
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
I held Moscow, and ION did tap Gre, which allowed me to take Bul! So Austria gets two builds this turn. Italy did take Venice, although he took it from Tyo, which I like better than him taking it from Burgundy. Italy also gets two builds. I hope those builds are fleets, but I'm guessing at least one will army Ven (again).
I'm setup to potentially take Greece this year, as well as StP or Sev. I think I'm building two armies again. Vienna for sure. Not sure whether Bud or Tri. Bud is less threatening to Italy, so I might go with that for now?
Vie S Bud-Tri,
Ser-Gre S Bul,
Ukr-Sev,
War S Mos
I got into Gre (the turkish fleet is destroyed) and everything else worked. The more interesting thing is that Italy moved Ven-Tyo and Boh-Sil. (He did also get into Belgium). He also moved into BLA and AEG, which I assume he is going to use to force his way into Con to eventually get Ank. So I should get at least 2 builds this year...
...I'm still thinking about attacking Italy. Vie-Tyo, Tri-Ven. That would get me three builds and put me at 11. Italy would either be +0 (belgium) or +1 (bel & hol). If he ends up +0 (and Tyo moves like I expect) then I would have units in Ven/Tyo/Tri/Vie/Bud, which seems pretty powerful with Rome on the chopping block. He'd be at 12 and I'd be at 11... defending Gre/Bul might be iffy, but I should have StP to compensate if needed?
Hm.
In my Turkey game, I made a last-minute order change before the moves processed. I went with leaving Trieste alone. It worked out well: Russia brought all 3 armies to bear on moving the Tyrolia army back to Trieste. Ordinarily, I have a rule against last-minute order changes. Too many times, I've changed from winning to losing orders that way. The only time I'll do it is if I discover new reasons that I didn't consider originally, and those reasons are compelling enough to change my thinking. Here, the new reason for laying off Trieste was that Italy probably wasn't going to move there from Venice. A VEN hold was more likely, given that A VEN-->TRI would have left Venice open. Still, it was a close guess. I'm glad it worked out. Germany filled in all the empty spaces with armies, and here we are:
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
It's not a superb position for Turkey. I think Russia won't attack me. Probably he'll order TRI support-hold VIE, BUD support-hold VIE. That's what I expected from him last year. I have a good shot at SEV, but it's a guessing game. If I order ARM-->SEV supported by BLA, RUM-->UKR, and BUL-->RUM supported by SER to backfill, I have a guaranteed capture of SEV, but Germany takes RUM with SEV-->RUM supported by UKR and GAL. My army RUM has no retreat and is destroyed. If I anticipate those German moves, I can order SER and BUL support-hold RUM, plus RUM and BLA support ARM-->SEV and I both capture SEV and hold RUM. But, if Germany anticipates those moves, he holds the position with GAL-->RUM, UKR support-hold SEV. Probably I have 2 chances to guess right before the German A SIL arrives in Moscow.
In the Med, I'm just beginning to analyze. ION-->TYS supported by TUN? ION-->ADR? (But Russia probably views that as hostile and what do I gain from it?) Convoy BUL-->Apulia? That would be kind of fun, but based on the above analysis I probably need that army in the fight against Germany.
Some more thinking is in order. I've gotten a bit busy in real life. It might be a day or two before I can post more analysis.