Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20 Maybe we could start a new politics thread on this topic, which in my view is objectively more important than the current Israel-Palestine conflict. We could, but this thread is the "war, what is it good for" thread, whic...

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

We can all be wrong about things. I think it is only in being willing to recognise where we are wrong that we can learn I couldn't agree more, and I very much share Bert's curiosity regarding what lesson you have taken I have learned that sharing things without comment will lead people to believe t...

Thank you for the explanation. It seems, then, that the collapse that Orathaic describes would not be so much a collapse as a standard transition of government? Standard transition in functioning democracies is for the government to serve a full term, organise an election, and act in a care taker r...

Egypt wants next to nothing to do with it. They have the Muslim brotherhood, their equivalent to Hamas, and I think they had a cue to remove them from power, because their military would rather just not. Peace over fighting a war for the Muslim Brotherhood and democracy. Jordan has an issue that a m...

We can all be wrong about things. I think it is only in being willing to recognise where we are wrong that we can learn. I still think indiscrimate bombing of civilians is bad. And if Israel decides to occupy Gaza for years or decades then it will result in a lot more Israeli casualties as insurgenc...

More on the claims that the IDF indiscrimate fire killed Israeli civilians, and Intelligence warnings and failures: https://x.com/caitoz/status/1728854362917847203?s=20 Notably, that post cites no sources. Also notably, we've gone over everything stated in it already. Are you implying that an uncre...

More on the claims that the IDF indiscrimate fire killed Israeli civilians, and Intelligence warnings and failures:

https://x.com/caitoz/status/1728854362917847203?s=20

Per that definition, I can agree that the Israeli government will most likely collapse after the war ends. The question remains what kind of government will replace it. And how split public opinion will be. I have no idea of what that will look like, or whether a lasting peace will be possible with...

Yeah, with or without an election, the standard terminology for a coalition government breaking up would be the 'collapse of the colation'. There are cases where such a collapse leads to no government for a period of time, best examples where this happens but isn't catastrophic is where there is ano...

But the point remains, a new leader can take over without even needing an election (just like the House speaker, or UK's prime minister). Israel may need a new election (if they can't figure out a stable ruling coalition...) But that isn't even the end of the world.

This will continue until Israel's government collapses and a new leader decides to end the current wave of violence. I find it humorous that you describe the plight of the Gazans as being entirely and totally against Israel, but then you portray the collapse of Israel's government as a positive thi...

Utter fantasy. Hamas will not be defeated militarily. They will continue to hide, plan and fight the IDF with increasingly desperate and inhumane tactics, with support from Gazans unsympathetic to Israel (ie the vast majority of them) because they are seen as the only ones at least attempting to do ...

I've got nothing to say other than that sounds wildly unlikely to me. Gazan civilian deaths are tragic, Israel should not get a pass on its war crimes, and yet the civilian death rate is currently not way out to lunch relative to other modern urban assaults (e.g., Mosul). The most intense period of...

As such the chances of peace seem remote at this point. Which is a very sad situation. Various US mil-bloggers are discussing what the US learned from 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq and fear the war Israel is getting itself into is unwinnable. But I suspect the ethnic cleansing which the US would...

You can contrast support for paramilitaries in Northern Ireland before and after the good Friday peace agreement. The more hardline/pro-violence parties (SF/DUP) were unpopular during the violence. The more middle of the ground, working for peace parties (SDLP/UUP) were seen as offering a solution t...

I did more reading on the study. It's published by a research group that's associated with the PLO government and based out of a West Bank University that has several prominent alumni (incl. the Palestinian ambassador the UK). To be clear, the study is about Oct. 7 and was conducted earlier this mo...

Though apparently the BBC is taking the kid gloves off:

https://x.com/Tracking_Power/status/1725521502244634880

Oh frak, I know this isn't recent, or related to Hamas, but I just learned:

https://x.com/rafaelshimunov/status/1725515037966516355

The majority of the Palestinian people hate Hamas and are unable to express that for fear of reprisals. The Israeli government on the other hand... How many times have Hamas been described as "a creature of Israel" funded by right wing religious zealots to undermine the secular Fatah movement, and ...