@alderian - no probs i only just discovered it

@alderian - no probs I only just discovered it

This is exciting. I do believe I have never played with any of my fellow b1-leaguers before.

Bring it on!!

:)

Message to Flashman; what's the bet that I am England and you're Germany again?

@Polar bear - I will lay odds of 40-1 that you are England and Flashman is Germany.

I would look at the various balances if I could be bothered, and possibly take it.

7*7 possibilities = 49 possible country/player combinations

7*6 possibilities

And it isn't totally random, either.

You see, they can't both be England...

Ghost

Not 7!

?

7*6*5*4*3*2*1 or 7! is the possible combinations of players and countries in a given game.

True re: 7! - I'm just so fried from these process flows today - but the only relevant combos are those two specific players are in those specific countries, which is a 1:42 chance. Who is in Turkey isn't relevant

Ghost is partly right with his 7*6 which gives 42 combos but he has omitted the fact that either player may not enter, or the web site explodes, or kestas changes the map to read UK etc, etc etc...I'd still give 40-1 as a prop bet.

OK, so they were just saying "there are this many combinations fulfilling the conditions you set"

That is why I was so confused. ;_;

"True re: 7!"

No, it's 7 * 6.

7! is the number of combinations possible, of the wich 5! (rearranging the other 5 players amonsgt the 5 remaining countries) have Polar Bear as England and Flashman as Germany.

So the number of chances are (7!/5!) = 7 * 6, wich means that the odds are (7!/5!)/7! = (1/5!) = 1/120

Yes, for two specific players in two specific positions, 1 in 42 is the correct odds. But then you have to take into account if they have played those positions before and how many times. Remember, we have a weighted system, so if they have played those two positions numerous times in the past and their opponents haven't, the odds become much greater, but if niehter has ever played their respective position, and every one else has played them time and again, the odds are much better that they will get it.

so, look over the players histories and see how many times they have played those specific positions. Do the same for their opponents and you should be able to adjust the odds based on the weighting of the draw.

@Xapi - it is 1 in 42. The odds of hitting pocket aces in Texas Hold'em are 1 in 221. The odds of hitting the first A is 1 in 13 (4 aces, 52 cards) an the second Ace is 3 in 51. So (52*51)/(4*3)=221 or 220 to 1 against.

41 to 1 against is much better odds but is the correct odds.

7!

That computes to 5040.

I can write out the entire table of this, but 5040 numbers, I don't think so...

So think of it this way, if one person is Austria, and everyone switches over a country, like, England to France, France to Germany,etc. that's 7*6. Then, if that one person switches to England, then everyone else would cycle again, meaning it's 6*6, and this keeps repeating, and you'll get 7*6*5*4*3*2. Which is 5040.

kthnxbai

"@Xapi - it is 1 in 42."

Yes, you are right, although your example didn't help me at all.

I was doing it backwards. 5! is the number of possible combinations with PB as E and Flash as G, and 7! are the total number of different possibilities, so 5!/7! = 1/42.

What we should also bear in mind is that the original statement....'Message to Flashman; what's the bet that I am England and you're Germany again?' Contains information that upsets our probability calcs. Usually probabilty has no memory so the chances of being dealt pocket aces after you had them the last hand is still 221-1. But in our example the fact that flashman has already been Germany and Polar Bear has been England, makes the chances of each of them being that country again a little bit lower. In Polar Bear's case he has been England 5/20 times, so his chance of being England again the next time he plays are lenghtening.

It's very likely though that them getting those two countries was compensating for previous lack of those two countries.

Remember that the balancing system was set up roughly in the middle of league play.

Ah, what you're forgetting is that I have been England in 5/9 league games (3/5 in season one and 2/4 in season two). Flashman was Germany 3/4 times last season and these co-incided with the two times I was England. Therefore PBEngland vs FMGermany occupied 50% of league play; and it's fair to say that I am heartily sick of England and Flashman is heartily sick of Germany..... meaning that we will almost certainly get them again!

Ghost, how did I pretend to be a new player?