Every empire ever has fallen. It is only a matter of how.

Look at all these liberals, hoping for America's demise. I'm glad that the failed Western EU countries, which are being destroyed by Middle Eastern barbarians by the moment, disapprove of President Trump.

Speaking from the UK, I can assure you that our country has spent the last 7 years being destroyed by Conservatives.

I still am enormously entertained by how consistently odious leon1122's opinions and comments are.

There's still some hope as I have heard foreign news outlets specifically distinguishing between "the American people" and "the US government." I believe most non-Americans are smart enough to know that we don't like Trump either.

Who said anything about hope? We will see how long the US as an imperial power survives. And whether corporate abuse of the citizens will be allowed to continue.

The worst off were the first to revolt, but groups like Black Lives Matter/NoDAPL have been demonised in some corners, and treated like they are not citizens - not just by the corporations, but also by the state security apparatus.

When average everyday white people stand up, it will not be so easy to repress them. Occupy Wallstreet was one such movement, and it took a long time to suppress. But there will be more.

There are no external threat to US power and dominance, and yet the Empire will fall regardless. I can't tell if it will be 10 years, or 100 years, or 1000 years, but it will fall.

Speaking for Ireland, the conservative coalitions of the last 10 year have imposed the worst austerity on the people, have fucked over the poor and enriched US vulture funds. It is a betrayal of the citizens of this country, and a complete failure of conservative politics.

But there is no 'being destroyed by middle eastern barbarians', Leon clearly doesn't have a fucking clue what is going on in Europe.

Ora: So your are claiming that Leon actually has a clue about something else? :)

No, i made no such claims. I am just directly refuting his most recent BS.

"There are no external threat to US power and dominance,"

Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, terrorists, etc.

The combined military forces/budgets of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, pale in comparison to what the US spends. Domestic terrorism has not compared to the immense security apparatus in place to prevent it - though that requires depriving rights from US citizens.

International terrorism has killed less people in the last 20 years than domestic car deaths or domestic gun violence (see: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/03/us/terrorism-gun-violence/index.html and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1730293/pdf/v011p00332.pdf )

You have a rather odd assessment of relative threats. The US will tear itself apart, using fear of the other to justify stripping rights from citizens.

Why doesn't the article highlight Trump's improving favorability ratings in the Philippines, North Korea, Egypt, and Turkey?

Surely high praise in those countries counts as making America great again??!?!?!!!!!?!?!/111111

Well if the American empire declines to a point of irrelevance that might be a good thing for the world, eventually. Probably some nasty wars in between though. A post colonial world finally maybe.

i suspect it will go out more with a bang and a splutter than a whimper... it will do the world no good if we don't learn from our history; a post colonial world where new power structures and empires grow will re-colonialise.

Or just come up with new ways to oppress and exploit. We must work for this future by making history.

Sorry, Groza, but the American people elected Trump, as well as the whole raft of Republicans who are very much like him. Outside of the coasts, the Us government pretty perfectly reflects the American people

Leon is completely wrong, western moderates want the USA to "get it's shit together", to bloody well wake up, deal with it's internal problems, get it's tax system reformed and stop destroying workers and the middle class in favour of the rich and corporate sector, too bloody reform it's corrupted political system, etc etc etc
The view expressed by Leon is bloody " pigmy" thinking, infantile and deeply stupid

It might be worthwhile to step back and analyze the balances of power and probability in these cases. The United states is a deeply divided, deeply corrupt, and immensely powerful nation. There is no way that its "downfall" as some are hoping for is a good thing for anyone in the world. Look at the collapse of any major empire throughout history; how many of those citizens' lives improved within that generation? Not many.

However, we should not allow ourselves to assume that the collapse of such a powerful nation would look anything like what we've seen before. With such advanced structures of control and oppression, such deep divisions and hatred, such eagerness to spill the blood of the "other," The only loser will be the common citizen. And the effects will be global.

So perhaps we would be better of reforming what we can before the structure collapses. Can we learn from history? My gut says no. If you're a concerned citizen of the world, perhaps invest your energy into healing the divide between Americans rather than deepening it.

Just my opinion.

You guys are all whack and whacky

Plus there's just a bit of hypocrisy with all this angst within the USA about did/did not Russia interfere in the US election... Like the US government is a serial offender as regards interfering in other nation's elections. Including Russia's elections.

Well Capt Brad, let's just see how quickly the president you support, Daffy Donald TrumpGod, can get the US Federal government budget out of deficit and into surplus. You can hold your breath that long Capt Brad ? How proud does it make you Capt Brad to know that your nation's economic incompetence is being financed by Chinese creditors ?

@mitchell, a collapse of the US economy does not benefit Chinese investors... Though you will know shit has gotten real when they start investing elsewhere (though maybe they have already diversified). If the US economy collapses only North Korea will be unaffected.

But we have seen economic trade blocks collapse before, we don't have anything similar in scale and complexity to the current global economy. We do have the Bronze age collapse to use as an example.

I think that given the scarcity of information about the bronze age collapse, and the vast societal changes that have irrevocably changed nearly every aspect of human life in the intervening years, that the bronze age collapse may not be a useful comparison.

Perhaps economic catastrophe might be better compared to the the 2008 financial meltdown, recent European debt crises, or even the relatively ancient Great Depression. The fact of the matter is that things become less and less comparable to the past with the ever-accelerating change of modern society. Sooner or later, we'll find ourselves in a situation completely without precedent. Hopefully that situation is a favorable one, but the likelihood of that is dependent at least in part to the degree of cooperation between nations and powers. I sincerely doubt that any one nation state can achieve a new, greater prosperity if the rest of the world moves backwards.

Look the US is the lone holdout on climate action. Since the US won't reduce the threat it poses to the world voluntarily, I think a US economic collapse is the next best option. It sucks for Americans of course, but on balance it is better than having the Us unleash its weapons of mass destruction on all of humanity

MajorMitchell wrote "Well Capt Brad..."

Now I realize how happy I am to have enjoyed a CB free forum for so many months now! Have no intent to start reading that garbage...

@Ogion, that is arguably true, however there are many groups with vested interest in that not happening.

All the major trading partners have economic which will slow down if the US collapses. Any industry which sells to the US will suffer, there is no-one to make up that consumption (despite the increase in consumption in south and east asia).

That means economic instability all across the developed world. Massive joblessness, cuts to social welfare and healthcare. Violence is inevitavle.

@Ripple, as much of a fan of the technological singularity as i am, i can't help but disagree. We have an example of systems growing interconnected in greater complexity. The amount of interconnection and complexity is the only difference now. And yet a spiral of disaster collapse the bronze age 'civilisations'. The smallest lesson this teaches is that interconnected trading systems become interdependent. 200 years ago a massive war in europe, producing crippling debt and millions dead, barely registered in the independent US - it triggered a wave of revolution in the Spainish Empire of South and Central America, because the Spainish monarchy was kicked from power in Spain by the French; and most of the rest of the world saw some disharmony. We can look at the progress which has heen made since then.

Complex social rules control what is acceptable behaviour, when previously violence was used exclusively, complex financial instruments are used to predict markets, when previously we used gold to back all trades. Complex tax evasion methods mean ownership of companies is split over continents and profits are shifted to zero-tax/low tax havens, when previously profit was from and in a single state.

These complexities add new parts, always extra layers, always more to break should things go badly.

And the interconnectedness? It undermines local independence. It kills local economic behaviour, and break down community support structures. You don't need to ask your neighbour for a lift when you can order and uber online. It isn't economicaly to grow food for your family when you can grow and export coffee, and then import food from somewere else in the world.

All of these great things depend on ever more expensive and more difficult to maintain layers of complexity. Maybe the automation of thinking will give us another ten years of increasing complexity, and maybe we will see another few decades of economic growth. But as more and more conplexity is layered on, there is just more to break. (Whether that is logistical organisation, or corporate organisation, or state/inter state organisation... Look at the EU, that mess of inter-state relationships, on the verge of collapsing with Brexit...).

Look at some complexity theory. You will see the self-similar patterns emerge. We may learn from the next collapse, but i don't think we've learned much from the last one yet.

I agree that the United States represents a real threat to the world both via contribution to climate change and via military/nuclear force. I believer however that at least the military aspect of that threat is not averted by economic collapse. A great deal of the American economy could be largely decoupled from federal or state funding in the event of economic collapse. Private military-industrial-complex interests could easily continue funding some of the most dangerous parts of the American military structure.

Perhaps not the most likely situation, but imagine a case where access to the nuclear arsenal becomes privatized even to a small degree. Don't forget that the idea of merchant armies wasn't far from the standard up until the beginning of WW1. I think that even a single nuclear weapon used in war would change things forever. We were fortunate enough to cram that genie back into the bottle once, with only a few dozen scares and close calls since. How long could we keep playing nuclear chicken until we get fried?

The point being, Economic collapse of the United States could have disastrous and entirely unforeseeable consequences. I personally believe that it would be equivalent to Global Thermonuclear Russian Roulette. Do you like your odds?

They're better than certain destruction with our climate roulette with bullets in all six chambers for sure

I think your hyperbole needs a bit of curbing. Yes, I agree that anthropogenic climate change is a ticking clock that will steadily destroy some of the most valuable parts of human civilization. Coastal cities and nations will suffer, food security will suffer, weather will be less predictable and more lethal.

But it is simply not the case that this type climate change will one day kill each and every human. It won't be a sudden event, nor will it be equally distributed. Like many horrible things, the effects of climate change will disproportionately affect the poor. Those who least contribute to the problem will almost certainly be the first to suffer from it. We already see those effects now; plummeting fish stocks, crop failures, floods, and droughts.

The rich, the ones causing the most harm, the ones making the most profit from this calamity, the ones least eager to contribute to the solution, those will be the ones least affected by the problem. Now you see the conflict, yes? We are short on time, short on cooperation, and short on luck. Gambling on one of the best potential solutions to climate change (the United States actively funding large-scale climate efforts) to simply arise from the economic ashes of the current system belies the sort of optimism that allowed the problem to progress as far as it has.

America: Have you tried turning it off then back on again? Is not a valid solution.

No, it won't kill every last human, just most of them. There is a far higher probability of the loss of civilization with all that entails. I am a scientist, and have been following the actual science recently, and the fact of the matter is that we are past the point now where much of earth will be essentially uninhabitable for humans and industrial agriculture will be effectively impossible on anywhere near the scale it is now. When you say "suffer" you aren't nearly realistic enough and "food security will suffer" basically equals "billions will starve."

Physics doesn't give two shits about the survival of human civilization and that's who we are playing games with.

There should prob be about half a billion of us allowed