Chaqa, nobody's claiming to know things in black and white. This game is largely about convincing others to see the way you see. When I'm town, I'm never sure in my opinions, but I'm more sure in them than I am in anyone else's, and I know the other townies are in similar positions, so I'm going to do my best to convince people to see things the way I do. Part of that is acting more confident than I am.
I let things change my perception all the time, and I usually post conclusions well before I jump to them because I want to see how people react. I'll agree with you that we had some problem this game with people like meme and uclabb (Seriously dude, just own up to the fact that you played an awful game. The rest of us have.) being too confident in their soft-clears and letting that blind them, but I think you fundamentally misunderstand what a lot of us are trying to do, and that's why you've never been very helpful to any team you've been on.
guak, I've been shot night two a couple times, but I generally inflame enough people early that I'm not the sexiest nightkill.