Day 5 Final Vote
OB_Gyn_Kenobi (6): stupidfighter, tvrocks, y2kjbk, Yoyoyozo, phil_a_s, guak
guak (2): OB_Gyn_Kenobi, SandgooseXXI



OB_Gyn_Kenobi, everyone decided, was scum. How could anyone with such a bad name be innocent, they said. How could anyone so goofy be innocent, they said!

The more they argued the more they failed to see that the main reason they wanted to lynch him was that they were, in fact, all Star Trek fanboys and hated anything to do with Star Wars. So of course a guy named Kenobi had to go, who does he think he is, Captain Kirk?

They dragged him to the autopsy room and turned on the machine. The machine looked at them and said "You were supposed to bring balance to the ship, not destroy it!" After several groans (the autopsy machine's sense of humor was not great), it got to work, revealing him to be...

REDSHIRT JAR-JAR

Night has begun. 24 hours.

Can I get a current player list, because I'm too lazy to make my own?

3. stupidfighter
5. tvrocks
9. y2kjbk
11. Yoyoyozo
16. phil_a_s
18. Sandgoose
19. guak

nvm found and updated mine.

3. stupidfighter
5. tvrocks
9. y2kjbk
11. Yoyoyozo
16. phil_a_s
18. Sandgoose
19. guak

4-2-1 at start of night. The best thing we can hope for is SK tagging a mafia member, and mafia trying to hit SK. The SK needs to tag mafia though, otherwise he's pretty much lost already.

so, 4 town, 2 mafia, 1 sk. Worst-case we could lose 2 townies tonight, but the sk is probably looking for mafia at this point. If we go down to 3-1-1, this will be a tough but winnable game, we'd be at LYLO twice in a row.


3. stupidfighter. Obvious town, anyone who says otherwise I will nightkill.
5. tvrocks. Probably town, he voted for both mafia candidates and both were pretty savable if he was mafia.
9. y2kjbk. Unknown, need a reread.
11. Yoyoyozo. Almost certainly town, has hit the mafia as hard as I have.
16. phil_a_s. Probable mafia, case has been made against him by probable townies.
18. Sandgoose. Starting this day phase, if there is no counterclaim, I will be assuming he is the cop, as farfetched as the story sounds.
19. guak, Probable mafia, case has been made against him by confirmed townie.

These reads don't include possible androids. I don't really know how to look for one.

The sad thing is, we have almost no way to look for android - early on, he would probably melt into the discussion, later on his aims seem to have synched up with town. The power-roles are either dead or useless.

I agree with you that you're likely to be town, as is tv and yoyo. I know I'm not mafia, but have no way to prove that. I've been wrong quite a bit, and right without following my own advice early enough. y2k I don't like, if he lives the night I suggest we look at him tomorrow. Sandy is probably going to be cop, because the real cop would be an idiot not to claim at this point. guak I think is the most likely to be scum at this point.

Yeah, if Goose was fake claiming the real cop should have claimed for a kill, unless he was REALLY confident OB was scum. I'll be taking a look at y2k this phase, in case I'm not alive for the day.

As I mentioned in my last post about possible scum, your recent posts have been pretty convincing. Not saying you're off the hook, Phil, just that if you are mafia, you're doing a good job of not looking it and if you're town, well, good on you.

Also, for anyone doubting those who voted for both mafia lynches are probably town- remember that looking like town is not their only concern. They need to worry about the cop(even if Goose's story is true, they couldn't have been 100% sure of his role) and the sk. With these threats in mind, while looking like town to avoid the lynch is important, having raw numbers is also important, that way a shot or two from power roles can't wipe out their whole team.

*the mafia's only concern

A message to the android- why you need to aim fro aliens this phase.

If you hit town, you'll be left in the game with 2 aliens, 2 crew and yourself. At this point, the aliens win the game if they can lynch you. They will be looking HARD for you, and they'll only have 3 targets to choose from. They will likely control the lynch with 2 out of 5 votes. The odds will be heavily in their favor to win the game.

If you hit mafia, you'll be in the game with 3 crew, 1 alien and yourself. The town will be looking equally for you and the mafia, you and the mafia will have equal opportunity to sway the vote. You and the mafia both have the chance for a nightkill assuming neither of you is lynched- here you have the advantage, because you are invulnerable to their nightkill. It will still be anyone's game- the town has to guess right twice in a row. You just need to survive two days. The mafia has a bit of a disadvantage due to needing to lynch you.

I haven't looked at any old records, but it sounds to me like the android is at a heavy disadvantage and an android win should be rare. If you can find mafia tonight, I'd put your chances of victory at close to 50%.

Interestingly enough, if android hits mafia, town is going to have a much easier time finding mafia than android, because mafia has had reasons to act like not-town in the past, while android really hasn't.

So please, android. Kill the mafia first. You can win that way.

Hopefully going to look at y2k and guak tomorrow, but for today, it's midnight where I am, so I can't think entirely straight.

Well shit, that sucks. SK definitely needs to hunt aliens tonight or the aliens will likely win this. Honestly, as far as I'm concerned now, Sandgoose is the only cleared player by having a cop claim not counterclaimed. I think with both the engineer and marine taken out by the beginning of Day 2 and supposedly the cop being roleblocked every turn, it's very likely the scum felt safe bussing each other to gain confidence among the town. I realize the scum couldn't have known they were roleblocking the cop successfully every turn, but they probably highly expected it. I noticed looking back that Sandgoose said he wasn't roleblocked after Night 1 on page 27, which I guess was a lie? It would seem scum reacted to that by continuing their roleblock assuming they had a power role on lockdown who wanted to get attention off himself by being silent. Bottom line is that I think the voting history could be very misleading and it's possible, maybe even likely, that the remaining two scum were highly active in getting the two dead scum lynched to land us here all confused.

This gets me back to seriously not trusting tvrocks. He calmly went along with both lynches, and I think he may have done that because he felt safe doing so given the dire situation for the crew losing their power roles early. Like I said I feel Sandgoose is the only clear right now and I'm going to go back and look at the players that have been skating by easy for the last 1.5 days, namely tvrocks stupidfighter and yoyoyozo. Given the numbers and knowing I'm a redshirt, and taking Sandgoose as the cop, that implies a minimum of one of those three is scum or SK using the pigeonhole principle. Only one of them is scum/SK if both guak and phil_a_s are scum/SK. The redshirts have to get on the same page fast if we want any shot at winning this.

tvrocks calmly went along with both *scum* lynches.

You're not alone in being freaked out by numeric concerns.

I'm still inclined to trust stupidfighter, since if he's scum, the bus seems unnecessary. When he joined the ghug wagon it was dead, and he revitalized it. Bussing is a valid strategy, but I doubt that is what it'd look like.

Yoyo went after ghug early in the day. That could be evidence either of a pre-arranged bus, or of really good judgement. He also went after ALEX reasonably early. Killing half of your team just to gain trust seems unlikely to me.

Now, tvrocks joined both lynches rather late, when it really seemed ghug was going to get lynched. That seems a lot more likely to be the prearranged bus in a "if one of us is going to get lynched, let's at least get towny cred" way.

No-one is cleared, but some people just don't look too suspicious, and since scum still have more to lose by killing their own unless they're going to die anyway, people with a large hand early on in killing scum are more likely to be townies.

I'll try to add tvrocks to my reads tomorrow if I have the time.

I think it was mafia IV where I was town and warden was mafia and had bussed bosox and completely threw me off his scent in the end game. I'm desperately trying to not succumb to that again.

Shit, we are screwed unless SK hits mafia. I will likely survive the night since everyone thinks I am SK or mafia so there is no incentive for either to kill me, but in case I die, I want to say hang phil.

Also, for what it's worth, if two townies die we already lost and should at least try to make it a no one wins scenario like Mafia IV

@y2k: it seems that you have been pushing for my kill the entire game despite the in general lack of evidence similar to what ghug did with vashta. Also, the idea that i shoukd not be trusted because it could have just been a plan by the mafia to stay alive is flawed in that they would not have had much of a reason to vote for theIr fellos mafia member after he had cop claimed and the vite was close enough and there were people who had said they Woukd switch if it was a tie. The survival of ghug fir possibly just one more night might mean tht we sould now be at 3 mafia members as alex would probably still be alive (he might have died tonight if ghug was killed last night, assuming bo was lynched during the day, however after the town flip by bo it's likely that alex could have survived tongight meaning the mafia woukd win. (Probably a 2-3-1) for now i at least would still stay more suspicious of the people who did not vote for alex or ghug (Guak did not vote for either)

@phil: if it was prearranged why did alex nit vote for ghug? It wouldnmt make very much sense for him to completely incriminate himself when there was a plan to do the opposite.

HIIIIIIIIIIIIIII PEEPS

tvrocks,
ALEX not switching is reasonably hard to explain, if you were indeed pre-arranged to switch, then he probably should have too. Also, you had a strong incentive to switch at the end without using it. That doesn't mean you should be 'trusted' per se. Everyone is a suspect, particularly since anyone could be SK.

I think we can all see that the most likely scenario is that phil is one of the last two scum. If he is not then that would mean the mafia completely bussed ghug. That would indicate the last two mafia are people who have been hiding in plain sight all along who preferred to stay hidden than try to save their mafia buddy.

Either way, I find it hard to believe that with only one scum member voting Vashta they would had let ghug die or risk dying when the vote was so close. SO to me that means phil is scum

We need to talk more. Is anyone around that wants to discuss anything?

Review of y2k

Day 1 posts a few reads, says big talkers usually aren't mafia, advocates lynching a mid talker. Votes for me saying my posts have no substance. Votes tvrocks sayting he's been contradictory and unhelpful. Urges consolidation. Votes Jeff toward the end when it's down to Jeff and Vash.

Night 1 nothing of consequence

Day 2 yoyo votes for y2k claiming he's been lurky. Y2k posts some more reads and promises to be more active. Advises consolidation again. Yoyo votes y2k again, claiming y2k is advocating a failed strategy of piucking 3 candidates. They spar over the issue, both seem to have decent points. Votes tvrocks, then minty. Cases seem to be focusing on lurky players he doesn't think contribute much when they do post. Votes maniac post-fakeclaim.

Night 2 urges sk to hit tvrocks or mintyboy.

Day 3 pops in a couple times without saying much useful. Votes tvrocks late in the day.

Night 3 Meme makes a decent case that y2k is on the mafia side and that his case for minty was weak.

Day 4 offers htoughts on who he thinks might be scum. 3rd or 4th to vote ALEX, just says he's sold on the idea. Swtiches to Sandgoose when cpatain thinks he made a mistake on ALEX. Switches back to ALEX. At this point it looked like ALEX would by lynched anyway, but Guak comes in and switches to Goose, meaning y2k could have tied it up, but that would have looked VERY bad.

Night 4 nothing.

Day 5 Supports Goose's copclaim. Votes OB.

Night 5 Suggests sk should be hitting mafia, suggests mafia might be confident enough to bus each other.

Overall thougts- apologizes for lurkiness a ton. Early on usually has a reason for his reads and votes. Later he's a lot more spotty about giving his reasoning for votes. His opinions on who is mafia/town don't seem to change too much. Overall I'd say he's exhibited some pretty suspicious behaviors.

Nation, I might not be here to guide you tomorrow. With that in mind, the time has come for... a THREATDOWN!

Threat #5 Tvrocks is my pick for mafia busser, or possible sk. Not convinced bussing has been happening, but if it has, tv is my choice.

Threat #4 Phil has been on my radar for a long time, but lately, he's been impressing me. If he's mafia, he's wised up and started blending, if he's town, he's just wised up.

Threat #3 y2kjbk hasn't said much of any use for the last few phases. Early on he seems like town, but once the mafia came under pressure, he kind of disappeared from relevance.

Threat #2 Guak. OB laid out a good case on him as SK. I already said I'd be keen on taking a look at him next and I stand by that. Could very well be mafia or sk.

And finally, the greatest threat to our ship and mission...


Threat #1 BEARS!!!

I'm to see who dies. To be honest, it's probably me. I have nikko leads except phil for reasons I've already stated

Tek slices open Kenobi's corpse. It stinks but it will keep him warm. Tek will not be using a stasis pod tonight, but will stand vigil to fight off alien invaders and rampaging androids with his bare(nor bear!!!) hands.

Night has ended. Please hold.

Plottwist: Chaqa is mafia