In fact I'm not drunk at all

however... it might help

Mass public sodomy? Wow. That's some prediction there. I'm going to envisioning some sort of gay summer of love breaking out across the Bible Belt as they finally loosen the bonds of repression. Yikes.

Nah Mr. Trump will win. We got this.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/john-weaver-axe-files/index.html

Trump currently leading 32-25 in the 3 New Hamphsire hamlets that have voted.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/08/midnight-new-hampshire-voting/93455396/

THAT'S 56% FOR TRUMP!! LANDSLIDE INCOMING!!!!

"but Eden, that's only 57 voters!"

TAKE YOUR LOW ENERGY CONCERN TROLLING SOMEWHERE ELSE JEB!

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1XDGN

These lines are ridiculous

You think Trump will get FL, NC, and OH?

Is anyone else here hoping for a "tie"? I really want someone to screw the electoral system (maybe Bernie will take his home state through write-ins). I would love to see the House have to pick President and the Senate pick Vice-President.

@Ab He's very likely to get Ohio and is supposedly leading in FL. NC is truly a toss up but I'd say it's more likely than my NH or NV prediction.

Today is the day RCP and 538 will be at their most accurate. Both predict a Clinton win, thorough by vastly different margins.

Pompeii's got the only remotely plausible Trump map, and it is not very likely he runs the table. Especially Nevada is already over. This is the election where Latinos recognize that Republicans hate them every bit as much as they hate black people. It's the beginning of the end. Clinton will carry Texas in her reelection bid

Republicans don't hate Latinos. They hate ILLEGAL immigrants.

@Ogion Supposedly Trump is leading in Michigan and Nevada isn't that unlikely as it was nearly a 50-50 split (not including early voting because that's honestly not a dependable source even for Nevada). Republicans also don't hate either race. To say that generalization shows the true ignorance in this forum.

To clarify: I speak of the Republicans I know from the north. It is possible southern and western Republicans are different, but Republicans in states like Ohio, PA, New York, New England, etc. are not really that racist. We just don't like illegal immigration.

You need to get better sources. There hasn't been any polls of any actual polling houses showing Trump ahead in Michigan. (Trafalgar is pretty clearly a plant/outlier.). Clinton leads by 3.5% on average:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

Nevada is notortiously hard to poll in part because the Latino vote is tough to get right. However, with the on the ground reports from who has already voted and the registration advantage, that's pretty clear.

And people can smell bullshit. Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I'll tell you what you believe, and yeah, Republicans pretty much hate people of color. That's the whole theme of the Trump campaign and much of GOP efforts over the past three decades.

Remington is the only pollster showing even Trump +1 in Florida recently. everyone else (Quinnipiac, YouGov, CNN, SurveyMonkey, Survey USA, etc) have Clinton up between 1 and 3.

IN other news, Obama's engineering of the kicking ISIS out of Iraq is going well. About time.

Also, Slate suggests Clinton underperforming slightly in Colorado, winning only by 3.5%, not 4.5%. hard to know if that means anything

@Ogion literally no polls had Obama winning Indiana in 2008 but he won it anyways. Sources on both sides are bias and I've seen in the span of a couple hours polls shift dramatically from one side to the other. As you said it's easy to smell bullshit. On the topic of hating people of color you're just simply wrong. Trump and many republicans don't hate people of color. Meanwhile Hillary has called African-Americans lazy underachievers. People seem to forget that the democrats fought to keep slavery back in the civil war and now fight to keep them enslaved at the polling booth.

On the subject of your sources they're know to be bias and even acknowledge it.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

This will be the most accurate model for today.

I wouldn't mind 538 being just way off this year so people stop treating it like some sort of crystal ball.

@TrPrado I used to use that poll until it started shifting around sporadically. They seemed reliable for a long while but they started switching who was winning each state sporadically and I decided not to trust them. Ironically I used their map to make my prediction with Trump winning the other day. Either way they're only using probability, not who will win the states. Most states are still pretty much 50-50.

Look, the GOP through a up candidate after candidate spewing racists crap and the talking head never stop. After a while we lose patience. It is just the reality

And actually Indy Star had Obama leading Indiana by 1% which was the margin. The only other two pollsters had MCain up by 1 and 3 were rasmussen and zohby both of which have a well established Republican bias. On balance the polls did have Indiana very close

They use state wins to predict win probability...

The problem is that some people don't realize the only day it really matters what 538 says is on election day.