@brainbomb

unemployment is low while inflation is high (at a negative slope means recovery) thus to continue a recovery we'd need full employment, or at least the correct velocity (assuming acceleration is constant) to obtain that, forcing potential output outwards thus helping the economy.

however this assumes equal rates along ALL job markets, while non-farm unemployment has been on the rise.

Agriculture sectors - which we rely off of illegal immigrant (and undocumented aliens, and menopausal mexicans -whatever the hell the SJWs call them)

however, farm jobs are also having more unemployment since 2014, but unless we deport enough to push past the current mean unemployment, there won't be a real tangible effect.

thus we could deport (my personal estimates) 200-500k without really hurting the agricultural sector, and helping labor prices.

any deportation past that that economically unwise, though there's also a moral standpoint, b.c we're basically keeping these people in slavery.

Yanik: Chill. It's bad that she used it, but it isn't campaign-ending. And I don't think it warrants criminal investigation. Ok? Ok. What I meant by needing fixing is easier access so that people like HRC don't feel the need to use different servers (and she's not alone). I don't care about this issue until there is proof that she ACTUALLY harmed and jeopardized American security via this. I see no proof in the released emails.

Yanik, has the US ever removed 6-11 million people in a span of 18 months to two years? What precedent is there to know economic effects

Historically the Spanish did that to the Mariscoes and endured roughly about a 30 year recession which led to the inquisition.

@yanik the moral issue of them being wage slaves to american farming is better than them being left to fend for themselves vs sinaloa

@Brainbomb: Right now Trump is only prioritizing the removal of illegals who have directly committed a crime.

@LeonWalras: Are you familiar with the Marxist thought? Here is just a rough guide.

1. Right now we are in a transition state between a liberal democracy or welfare-capitalist state to a socialized state.
2. The socialized state, in marxist thought, is the transition phase between capitalist and communist states.
3. The socialized state will gradually assume command over key sectors of industry and production thus expanding the state. (Healthcare as a recent example)
4. The final step and transition between a fully developed socialized state and transition to a communist state is not entirely clear. There has never been a state that has done this effectively. As in, the best examples of past and current communist states evolved out of underdeveloped capitalist states that had failed in the transition from feudal, pastoral, societies into capitalist states. What a final transition will look like is unknown, but we do know that in the final stage the proletariat will rise against the Social Democrats and remaining Capitalists. The Social Democrats are only useful as allies, but in the final transition anyone who opposes the final transition of the superstructure is an enemy.

-Note: This is marxist thought and what their blueprint. It has been since the first international.

*and their blueprint* *edit*

@brainbomb

there's never been an economy that has been in the position we're in right now with such a large agricultural sector at such low labor costs, while other employment cost indexes have been continuously rising.

the last large deportation i can think of would actually be the black plague, where there was a HUGE demand for lower class workers.

if we deport mexicans, we'll have such a HUGE demand for low cost laborers, that can't be satisfied. thus employment will fall underneath LR∑S (long run aggregate supply jsyk) leading to a Contraction, coupled with increased cost of living - which on its own would stifle the amount people are able to save, as well as baseline MPS (marginal propensity to save, currently thought to be .1) that investment, consumption would shrink

thus GDP which is (one model used) =G+I+C+N would lessen on all fronts except Gov't expenditures.

we'd have to raise taxes SKY HIGH to keep up, or we'd lower them and stick it out. Whatever the scenario debt would increase, and we'd have permanent damage to small businesses which would be consolidated by incipient monopolies.


so no, deporting that many people does not seem wise. A deportation like that would have to take place over 30-40 years to counteract negative effect. shocking an economy never works.

@Nd

technically their very existence here without paying taxes is illegal SOoOOooOOoOooooOO...

@James: Trump is only prioritizing the removal of criminal aliens who have committed crimes. His current immigration position does not have details on what will happen to the other 30 million people here illegally.

Pretty sure it says violent crimes on the website.

Look at any other public healthcare system around the world and they involve a lot more state intervention and control than Obamacare does. I didn't know Marx was so into incremental regulation.

https://www.google.com/#q=how+many+illegal+immigrants+will+trump+deport

"The deportation priorities outlined by the Republican presidential nominee during a policy address here late Wednesday would target at least 5 million and as many as 6.5 million undocumented immigrants for swift removal, or about half of the 11 million estimated to be living in the United States.Sep 1, 2016"


In answer to my own question there is no precedent for 6.5 million people being removed from the country in a 2 year span. There is no precedent for any such mass deportation other than the holocaust. So to say the economic effects will barely be felt, or the even more absurdist claim that Trump is just getting the really bad people out of here; thats stupid. And it isnt even his policy. Show me a method of finding the "really bad people". Got news for ya buddy, doesnt exist.

@DO

"I don't care about this issue until there is proof that she ACTUALLY harmed and jeopardized American security via this. I see no proof in the released emails."

I agree 50%

she didn't HARM anything - As far as we know YET!!! Guccifer said she got into her emails and did independently verify the original content releases, but as of right now you are correct: no proof it got into the wrong hands

HOWEVER

she DID "jeopardize" national security. By doing what she did, even I might have been able to hack her private server. I mean shit, an email address from a server that used:

Microsoft Exchange Server!

WHAT ON EARTH? NATIONAL SECURITY? WAT?

it's nowhere near state level, she had a TON of risk using it, compared the normal cryptological standards. She put national security at risk

the risk ended up fine but... it was unnecessary.


she wasn't evil, she was lazy and ignored advisors. she only wanted it to be easier for her: NO malcontent

i'll admit that! but being careless, is still a big problem for me. I'm still voting for her, but she definitely made me doubt her with the emails scandal

ND, For being a Trump supporter, it sorta seems like alot of times, you just have your own policies you think he is doing.

But Yanik, if nothing harmful or important in terms of content is in the emails why does it matter?

@ND

30 MILLION WHAT????????

WHERE DID YOU GET THAT????

SOURCE!!!!!!!


Basic analysis of the Clandestine economy can tell you that is an inflated number. If we had an extra 20 million people here in the USA, the economic impacts would favor a much lower measurable unemployment rate.

in fact, if we somehow "missed" 20 million people, we might have a negative unemployment rate on our current data sets. wtf man

Not sure what he was into other than critiquing capitalism and writing about historical materialism lol. His theory about the end of history (as I outlined above) is real.

I personally believe that the power and will of the individual will defeat this insidious ideology, but that is just my personal hope.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/18/30-million-illegal-immigrants-in-us-says-mexicos-former-ambassador/

Hold up, are we talking about Fukuyama's end of history? You think this is real???

I'm pretty sure marxism is dead, so your personal wish is granted. I'm just not sure how you're conflating marxism with commonly accepted modern economic practice.

@DO

"But Yanik, if nothing harmful or important in terms of content is in the emails why does it matter?"

um... there was classified material on there. remember? she said it "wasn't properly labelled" then it came out - yes, some of it WAS properly labelled to be classified.

as to the specifics: I don't know. we don't know what was on the deleted emails.

she says it was wedding plans with Chelsea - i'm not taking her word for it. She's lied about it in the past, she's ignored advisors, i don't trust her not to have gone back and deleted classified material off of her server

given there were classified data on the NON-Deleted emails, then we do know: sh put classified material on a non-gov't, non-secure server. And no, not all of it was classified correctly, but some of it was. there's not excuse for that 'some'

Not Fukuyama, Marx's end of history. It has it's roots in Kant-Hegel (if you are familiar) and Marx of course made it his own.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10848779708579774?journalCode=cele20

Marxism isn't dead. It is growing slowly, just in a more organic way than before (as it was meant to be).

Oh - I'm in polisci - "end of history" auto means Fukuyama.

@ND

I read the article, and within the same interview that diplomat changed the number back down again to a lower number at the end of the interview. how is that reliable, in any way?


Dept. of Homeland Security
11.4 million
Pew Research Center
11.2 million
11.3 million (2014)
Center for Migration Studies
11.1 million
10.9 million (2014)
Center for Immigration Studies
11 to 12 million
11.7 million (2016)

this is what I've found, also I'm using basic logic in economic terms.

if there were 30 million illegal immigrants, we'd have negative inflation. we'd be stretched thin. basic economic math does not show 30 million.

Obama has deported 2.5 million illegal immigrants over 6 years, amidst job growth of 14 million new jobs created in the private sector. 9 million more jobs than were created under GW Bush.

GW Bush removed 1.6 Million over his 8 years.

Trump plans to deport nearly 5 times as many immigrants in 1/4 the time of both previous presidents. And keep in mind immigration/depotation numbers were high due to the last 16 years of returnee's coming back after being kicked out. With Trumps plan you dont get those people back. Obviously that wont offend Republicans who want the illegals gone anyway. But it will have an adverse effect. you cant actually do what he is suggestion without a complete collapse of the farm and citrus industry. The farm subsidies alone would be a budget disaster

Yeah, Marxism is very much alive. It is very worrisome that an ideology that led to the deaths of over 100 million people is still revered, but the only way to know how to defeat something is to study it.

the basis of Marxism, is taking a fully developed industrial economy, and THEN distributing it to the workers.

the marxist model also does not allow for any real growth, or technological innovation.

growth and innovation is done under a state controlled economy, which is NOT marxism. also, those states generally are: unstable, unprofitable, autocratic, and inefficient