Vote Count Update the First

Vote no-lynch (4): Thucydides, Chaqa, Fasces349, AlexNesta

Votes outstanding (14): Everyone else (I'm not writing this whole list out)

My dinner is in the oven, and, really? Did you see my first in game post, krellin? It was sincere. +1 PE the personal forum politics need to stay out of this, which is why we should not lynch krellin (or anyone this turn!)

Okay back to my supper

So, I've been thinking about this and as far as I can tell, the only people to gain anything this turn by not killing someone is the Mafia.

There are 4 Mafia, which, presumably, will vote in a block, but with 18 people, they don't have much say yet. They need to keep themselves alive until they can kill off some people to make their vote count more.

What is the chance of dying if no one is killed this turn? 0%.

What is the chance of dying if someone is killed this turn? Greater than 0%.

It seems to me, the Mafia have great incentive not to kill anyone this turn, which forces me to believe that the people who voted no kill are either 1) the Mafia or 2) bad at math. In either case, I think we'd be justified in lynching them.

Amen killer. <wink>

@abge: I do not believe the different sides are necessarily a Mafia/Not Mafia split, but rather of play style. A conservative Mafia player, would see, as you said that if no one dies, that means they don't die, and vote no one. However, a risk taker might be willing to gamble on the 72% chance of killing a townie and 17% chance of killing a cop, medic or vigilante, and vote lynch. Also, I have an idea for the vigilante, I suggest that they focus on finding the serial killer, as he will be pretty difficult to catch on purpose, unless we have someone actively focusing on him.

Don't mind me, just making a post so I know where to pick up my reading in the morning.

@Vashta

That's true enough, but that's information we can't do anything with. You can have conservative and risky townsfolk, too. The difference is, it makes sense for both conservative and risky townsfolk to kill someone this turn, whereas it only makes sense for conservative mafia to not kill someone. So, on average, someone who votes more kill is more likely to be mafia.

*someone who votes *no* kill...

Lets start an unofficial Lynch vote

1. Abge - Pro lynch <name>
2. krellin - Pro lynch <an anti-lyncher>
3.

I see where you are coming from, but I still do not believe a conservative style of play, even if they are a townie, will vote kill. But that is but my humble opinion. However, considering your argument, if the lynch vote wins, there will be a higher percentage of mafia in the the no kill pile, but that assumes that at least some of the mafia have voted. What we say now may push them into the other group.

Passing the first day without lynching someone is definitely advantageous to the mafia. Even if a vanilla citizen does get lynched, going through that process now will give us way more information going into the next day than if we sit by and do nothing and let the mafia have the first shot. Lynching the detective or doctor would be terrible, but that's always a risk.

@PE Is it possible to change a vote after doing the ##VOTE, or is using the tag a binding action when accusing someone? Naturally one would risk being unable to change the vote if the hammer cut a day short, but is vote-changing going to be a part, or are ##VOTEs going to be considered final?

I am also Pro Lynch <anyone who has changed sides on this issue more than once> Or just once, if no double switchers exist.

Unofficially krellin, I believe you can add me and the Jok3r to that list.

In my experience, you're allowed to change your vote as much as you wish. I assume PE allows this.

Vash - please feel fre to update the unofficial/list as you will - add a suggestion for the rooe if you wish as well.....someone neds to man up and start sizing the rope for Th....someone's neck.

1. abge - Pro lynch <name>
2. krellin - Pro lynch <an anti-lyncher>
3. vash - Pro Lynch ?
4. Jokey - Pro lynch ?

I am pro lynch 100%.

y2kjbk - I am certainly not arguing for us to just sit here and not discuss - you are quite right that it is discussion that will shed light on people and their motives. I just don't think we should lynch today. They're not mutually exclusive.

Discuss what, exactly?

And who is allowed to participate in your discussion without you having a tantrum?

No they're not Thucy, but discussion only gets you so far. If after all our discussion, we don't lynch, that discussion will have much less influence on our collective ability to ID the mafia than if we lynch someone, even if we lynch a regular citizen. Not lynching anyone will leave the discussion open-ended for the time being as to what it tells us, and consequently won't tell us much definitively at all. A lynching will conclude a phase of debate and allow the good guys the best ability to start figure out what's going on and who is mafia, regardless of the outcome. Again, it would be extremely unfortunate if the detective or doctor were picked, but that's always a risk, and in fact it's less of a risk now than later down the road.

So what innocent townie do you propose we lynch for the sake of this abstraction of yours?

I'm really just not convinced by anyone's arguments, the only one I even understand are just the simple gamblers - 5/18 odds being good enough for them. Of course I disagree and find those are bad odds but at least I get the gist. The rest of the pro-lynch arguments? They don't make any sense. They're so many words.

Such words. Much gamble. Many scare.

As it stands I don't know that there is honestly anything useful to be said. In fact much of what has already even said is useless bluster, looking back at it. It sounds like the lynch just wants to do it because they can. Which seems highly counter productive, but whatever , I guess 48 hours is a long time to be thirsting for blood? I don't really get it.

@Thucy

The difference is that you think things will be better in the future and I think they will be worse.

I agree we have almost nothing to go on, but what will we have next turn? Still nothing and 2 dead townsfolk. We aren't going to gain anything by seeing who is killed.

the blowhard wanted discussion, and now discussion is useless? I thought you would learn great things from 48 hours of inaction? what has changed?


We have a citizen among us who sways and blows with the wind. Hard to believe his words...which causes one to question his motives.

Honestly, whatever. Lynch me. If this is how krellin is going to be the whole game, fuck it.

Well let's see where the discussion takes us. If no one really stands out as being sketchy then no lynching could be an acceptable choice for day 1, but I stand by my claim that this is advantageous to the mafia in general from a numbers perspective. The odds seem to get better in terms of picking mafia as you let citizens die out, but that alone is no reason to wait. That argument will be valid in every round, so at what point do we decide we have enough decision to lynch? If we feel there is enough info after debate today that someone should go, that will aid the town even if we kill a citizen when we go back and analyze what side people fell on for the lynching.

I'm looking at it this way:

Right now, we know nothing at all. If we wait one day, we'll know a few things...

1. The cop can gather intel
2. The mafia or vigilante may make a move
3. We may find out the doctor's identity

To me, waiting once is extremely valuable.