Day 4 ends, no one was lynched. Night 4 begins, you have 24 hours.

This is fairly unexciting.

Mafia is forced to kill tonight. Please post reads before the EON. I'll reread a bit later.

@bo - how do you feel about vecna's "100% town read" of you?

I don't have any issues with it. He backed it up with a fairly lengthy analysis. Why don't you ask me a specific question or two about it if you plan on doing something with the read instead of waiting for me to create questions for you depending on how I respond?

Sorry everyone. Busy Saturday here, and Sunday is shaping up to be even busier. I really don't love the fact that DL was on during the last day only at the beginning were he made just enough posts + vote to avoid getting mod killed.

I haven't found time to write up questions for him yet. Though if he'd like to reply to the question Bo asked me a few pages ago (which I just noticed), about why he commented on Maniac and Meme's bread crumbs, but didn't comment on Yoyo's, that would be cool.

I'd be inclined to read that is drawing attention to two town members while ignoring his scum teammate. But I'd be shocked if Yoyo and DL were scum together since they would have had the opportunity to get Guak killed and won the game back when we lynched Espi.

While I think there is a low probability of Guak or DL being scum. I think if either of them are scum they are likely scum together.

I still think Yoyo is scum, but I'm still waiting to see how he responds to the rest of my questions. If Yoyo is scum, my first choice for his scum buddy is Vecna. I really do think the entire sequence with the self vote and Yoyo voting for him, was really, really weird.

Bo could be scum with Yoyo, but at the moment I'm leaning towards Vecna.

Sorry about the brevity of this post. I've got a lot to do today, and don't think I'll have a chance to do much more before the deadline.

##GM NOTE

I am extending Night 4 by 24 hours. Giving everyone more time to come back from the weekend. 27 hours 8 minutes remain in Night 4.

Thank you. That helps me quite a bit.

Damian, I am comfortable eliminating the possibility of a guak/DL team. Maybe that's my dumbest move yet, but I don't see them both watching idly and bussing in LYLO when they could have saved both Espi and guak with a third wagon. I think at least one of those two, if not both, are town.

That I hadn't considered that, I do think the probability of them both being scum is quite low. Your point about the third wagon only reinforces that. If we are willing to discount that possibility. Which, I am. Then I think DL is soft cleared. Since he was the one with the controlling vote and he decided to cast it for Espi, I cannot see scum doing that, when they would have won otherwise.

Which leaves us with three potential scum teams, which I would argue are probable. From my point of view at least. With the caveat that while DL is soft cleared Guak isn't, so it might be worth consider a scum team were he features as one of the members.
1.) Yoyo and Vecna
2.) Yoyo and Bo
3.) Vecna and Bo.

Regarding Guak, while the point has been made that not everyone was on during the final hours of the day we lynched Espi. I would be surprised if, once Guak and Espi were the two lynches, if both were scum an attempt to start a third party wagon never started. I'm leaning town on Guak, enough so that I think lynching him tomorrow would be a terrible decision.

If I'm not around tomorrow, I'd encourage someone to pressure Yoyo to answer the remaining unanswered question which I asked him.

As well as the following question.

Question 9. Yoyo, when you posted your backstory did you not realize that it would read like a soft claim to most people, given that you explicitly mention detective skills? If yes, why did you got so defensive about people reading into it?

Largely agree with that analysis, but replace me with you ;)

@Yoyo ... you're really the only one being asked any questions - care to play? You didn't post basically all weekend.

lol sorry guys, I'm a little bored with answering cases. I'll be on in a few hours to answer questions, but answering questions for like 6 days straight isn't what I would call a fun game. As soon as the night flips, I'll jump back in. 48 hours should be plenty of time.

Funny how Yoyo is so confident he will survive the night

lol I know that the mafia doesn't want to nk their nicely prepped lynch.

Guak, DL, can you two post reads?

Summarized reads:

Yoyo: scum -> 80% likelihood
Vecna: scum -> 50% likelihood, more if Yoyo is indeed scum
Bo: scum -> 50% likelihood, less if Yoyo is indeed scum
DL: town -> 80% likelihood
damian: town -> 90% likelihood

In summary, I am convinced Yoyo is scum and his partner is either bo or Vecna and I am willing to gamble on this read. There is also a chance that the scum team is bo, Vecna and if I survive the night I will look into this possibility with an open mind. If DL and/or damian are mafia, then well played scum, because I just find it too unlikely to be willing to pursue that option barring any significant changes.

Guak, why do you think Damian is so towny?

All unclear's interactions with Espi, up to pg17 (if I die, somebody please finish this)

DL:
“This game's format is very similar to Mafia 11. That means we can town-clear me, ND, Yoyo, Guak, Espi, and Meme as we were all town in that game.” -pg1
“@Espi - last game is far different from this game in that there's no mafia roleblocker and only one power role.” -pg1
“Was Espi this buddy-y last game?” -pg1
“BTW Espi, what changed your mind regarding cop fakeclaims from M11?” -pg3
“Espi, pg3: “(to Wjessop and ND) I am really reading you both as Town right now and don't want to approach this as a 1 person vs everyone sort of thing.”

A weird thing is that you immediately correct yourself (“As a note about my above post, I have no intentions to stop looking into your actions to see if either of you is actually scum, but I think working together is in our best interests. Neither do I think that either of you should ever fully town read me, from your perspective, just as from mine, we can not tell who anyone is aside from our self”) which feels scummy to me.

“Ahh now I see it. That REST statement was just a phrase, although if you wish for me to try and assign deeper meaning to I, I could try? I honestly have no idea, I probably got in the habit of saying it during live games, or I could be wrong again so I will stick with the no idea.” -Espi, pg3

This is just awkward. On pg4 Espi also sort of mischaracterizes Ghug’s accusation as “ I used a word that you wouldn't have used. That is what happened.” -pg11

Yoyo:
“-Espi's hyperactivity” -pg5
“@Espi
I don't know. I didn't pick up any substantial scum tells from him when we were scum together, he seems the same as every game. I'll do have a few rules of thumb that I'll be looking out for.” -pg7
“ND, Yoyo, and Espi, are the main point of discussion now, none of which are particularly scummy.” -pg9
“Buddy Espi is buddy.

@@VOTE Espi” -pg10

Maniac:
“@@VOTE ESPI Obvious scum is scum. I only wish that Ghug hadn't highlighted everyone to what I consider to be a scumslip so early. (The use of the word 'rest'). Highlighting it means that his scum mates will surely bus him, which makes analysising the D1 vote hard.” -pg5
“I think on the evidence presented so far, town should be looking to lynch espi and as I've already stated mafia would probably be looking to bus him. Whilst that makes analysis of d1 difficult, I'd take that any day if our prize is lynching scum. “ -pg6
“Espi - I'm not sure if you have a bizarre writing style or you're scum. Comments like "I am also a bit worried your bus statement might have scared mafia away from voting for me, but I could be wrong." - Why would townie be scared that some comments are scaring mafia away from voting for them? I just don't get it. If you are scum, I'm not concerned that you only have three votes so far - it's still early.” -pg8
“@Bo - our votes aren't useless if we unanimously lynch Espi, but it does make the votes harder to analyse. As I've already stated, if Espi is scum, I'd take lynching him and not gaining too much info about others.” -pg16
“I think both Bo and Espi are scum and they are trying to find another target to divert lynch away from Espi. It is straight out of the mafia playbook that when attacked, try to find another candidate and it is too easy for scum to go for the ‘let’s lynch a LURKER’ play. If I’m right about Espi and Bo’s preoccupation with LURKERS, then it soft clears our traditional lurkers, CaptJeff and Guak as I don’t think mafia Espi and mafia Bo would play the ‘let’s lynch a LURKER’ card if CaptJeff or guak are the third scum.” -pg16

Guak:
“From initial read I agree that Espi is scummy as hell. Interesting scumslip for sure. Wonder what Espi has to say for himself?” -pg5
“@Espi: how exactly do you intend to find two mafia on D1? Have you ever played this game before? I know I have played games where you were playing, but did you even notice what was going on around you? *votes Espi” -pg9

Bo:
“@Espi … why do you seem so convinced that you can find all three scum on day 1? FYI, you can't. No one can.” -pg5
“@Maniac ... If you would bus Espi as mafia, then what would you do as town? Your vote rests on him, so are you saying that, regardless of his flip, your vote is meaningless?” -pg6
“I don't feel that Espi is a good D1 target (though he will be a great lynch target on D2) because, if he's scum, we'll be able to get a lot more out of him in time than we have. We should go for a lurker who won't give us that treasure trove of intel.” -pg11
“"Town questioning people is normal, hell I have been questioning things that didn't seem right for a while, but people voting for Scum just off of that is not normal. You are too confidant wjessop, waaay too confidant and I don't know if it is an act or real."

Can you explain how town is supposed to vote in your mind? Can you also explain where you think wjessop is too confident?

"My response is that I am playing poorly damnit."

This seems as forced as anything else you have said.

"I saw ND scum read a lot of town before for making mistakes, so I am more willing to believe that the slips ND is catching are slips of genuine town, being one of his reads also makes me more likely to town reason the people he scum reads, I will be keeping a close eye on everyone, but that is my gut reaction."

That doesn't answer my question. There are 9 townies and 3 mafia. Mathematically speaking, isn't it more likely than not that townies will target townies? You don't have to be confident in his reads, but to assume that everyone who ND calls out for slipping is actually town is ludicrous. If someone slipped and someone else called them out, would they still be scummy or would they be town then too?

If you're reading both Yoyo and wj as scum, what do you think the motivation is for them to get into such a heated back-and-forth like they did, and why would Yoyo in particular get so angry and frustrated, as you have, knowing he was being interrogated by his partner as opposed to someone that was simply onto him?

I will vote for whoever out of the 7 that I listed, including Vecna, Maniac, and yourself, is a) the most scummy at the end of the day, and b) whose lynch is unlikely to provide us substantially more information if we put it off until later. Lurkers tend to fall into that latter category, whereas more active scum that are under a lot of pressure will often provide a truckload of information if their death is put off for a short while. In my proposition, I said that we should go after those who we believe are active scum, as I do you, on day 2, but not day 1. It's an extra 72 hours of interrogation, more than doubling what we would have if we lynched an active scum player today.
“ -pg11
“why do you trust ghug, myself, and maybe Yoyo? I recall this same discussion coming up in another game, was it M11? You shouldn't blindly trust anyone, especially halfway through D1. If you trust us, explain why.” -pg11
“You're dancing on hypocrisy; you have been all game.” -pg12

Vecna:
“Also did I just potentially save Espi by starting a new thing?” -pg6
“ND OR Espi - I'm quite certain one of these two is scum by the way they've been trying to profile themselves. The hiding in plain sight tactic at work while trying to focus attention on another person. ND has been doing this a lot more than Espi, but he actually raised some decent reads. Will be interesting to see if he's right if Espi does get lynched (which would mean ND townie for life in my book)” -pg8
“Espi sure does seem like a good candidate but its all based on ND just posting a full list of Espi's weird comments together and applying a ton of pressure together with the band wagon. I said earlier I liked his reads but reading them again im not so convinced anymore. Especially now that he also launches a similair case against Wjessop. He posts a lot of stuff, and applies some "analysis" but the conclusions just dont seem to have much merit to me.” -pg16

@DL: I was townreading Maniac very strongly before he left and I gave my reasons for that earlier. I have not changed my opinion and think damian was instrumental in the Espi lynch.

Argghhh. I've read your big post four times now DL and I still have drawn almost nothing useful out of it.

I know you think these posts are helpful, but I know I don't find them helpful, because there is a) very little actual original content in one of these posts, meaning you aren't adding anything to the conversation. b) what original content you do have, is very hard to find, and differentiate from the miles of quotes.

If you have time I'd love to hear what your reads are before EON.

And Guak, if you have a chance, answer DL's question. In my mind DL is soft cleared if you are town and possibly even if you are scum based on Bo's logic, and seeing as you know your own alignment you should be able to clear him 100%. Why would you list me as more town than DL?

I'm sorry. I was trying to be deliberately useless to avoid the kill since I'm kind of soft-cleared, and I had the plan to post all my reads right before day started. Then I forgot about this game and started doing homework. I'll see what I can do in the little time I have before deadline, but it's not much. Hopefully this was enough to dissuade scum from killing me.

You all wake up. The lifeless body of DEATHLLAMA8 the ASTRONAUT is shoved in the corner of the crashed shuttle. Day 5 begins, you have 48 hours.

So, we have left Bo, Damian (Me), Guak, Vecna and Yoyo.
We have to hit scum today, otherwise we lose.

I'm still waiting to see what the rest of Yoyo's answers are, as they might change my mind. But for now I'm still pretty confident he is the most likely person to be Scum.
##Vote Yoyo.

I'm headed off for a lesson, I'll be back in a couple hours and see if I can come up with some questions for Bo.

One the one hand, its really shitty that we don't have reads from DL.
On the other hand it means scum cannot manipulate his reads to try and lead us astray.

Half of one or the other I guess. RIP DL

GLHF guys, kill them scum

@damian: I was pretty sure Maniac was town because of meta reasons (something he said about dying that did not resonate with scum Maniac), and when you came and led the charge against Espi that feeling was reinforced . In my mind both you and DL were soft cleared. I just thought there was a very slight chance that DL was scum despite being instrumental in the Espi lynch because bo was around when DL decided to vote and it could had been a calculated risk from DL. It was a long shot, but I felt it still was more likely than Maniac/you being scum.

I am going to ##VOTE Vecna. I will soon post some reasons for this vote.

Day 5 Official Vote Count #1

Yoyoyozo (1): damian
Vecna (1): guak

Not voted: Yoyoyozo, Vecna, bo_sox48

Currently NO ONE is set to be lynched. 46 hours remain.

P49
Guak: “”When Espi was clearly leading the vote in D1 and everyone was pretty much convinced Espi was scum, bo was the one to divert attention from him and plantedthe seed of doubt."

Bo: Show it. I scumread Espi throughout D1 and beyond. It simply didn't play into my D1 strategy of taking out a non-contributor to lynch him. I made that clear too on page 17:

Bo: ”I made my case that we should hold out on lynching talkative scum until day 2 because we can then have 72 hours more of information off of them, totaling 120 hours, as opposed to the 48 hours of information we get off of them if we lynch them today. Ghug made a fair point that we only have two mislynches, but I don't think that my strategy is anti-town in that way. I think it makes today a bit more of a challenge but with a higher reward, particularly if we catch the lurking scum that, in a game with only two mislynches and only one power role, we are almost bound to be dealing with."”

P51
Bo: “I'm still cool with the Espi vote, but given that he has been saved twice, I think we should give him another day, as contradictory as it sounds. We need to focus on the long term and I don't think Espi's flip will be all that valuable since there is such a ridiculous amount of information. If we take him out, it will leave us in just as crazy a scenario as we are in today. Going after someone who hasn't been as loud as him will make it easier for us to make connections for the next couple of days.”

These seem like pretty contradictory positions to take. During day 1, it was don’t lynch Espi, even though he is scum, we want to give talky scum more time to talk. During day 3 it was don’t lynch Espi, lynching lurking scum is better since there is less to analyze. The only consistent position take between the post on page 17 and the post on page 51 is don’t lynch Espi. I understand that strategy should evolve with the situation, but I find that highly suspicious, since the only consistent point I’m seeing between the two is don’t lynch Espi.

Care to explain the apparent incongruity between your two positions?

Is that a question to me?

I made my actual stance fairly clear to wjessop at some point, I forget when. I told him straight up that Espi was buddying me so hard, just as ghug did once, though far more effectively, that his death and subsequent mafia flip would lead to mine. If Espi were a better player, he probably would have pulled it off. Look back at how he buddied me and tell me that even the worst mafia player would ever connect themselves to their partner that hard. From my point of view, his interactions with me ought to townclear me.

On day 1, I took the stance that we should take out a lurker. I stand by that. I will stand by that in future games. Lurkers do us no good. Espi was not a lurker; he was far from it. I said then that if he is scum, by lynching him, we cut ourselves off from a much larger pool of information. I don't see how this stance is controversial, but for whatever reason, people like to ignore its merit. He wouldn't have played the way that he did - loudly and distractingly - were we to go after quieter players on D1. He wouldn't have felt that same pressure and things would have gone differently.

I don't think my D3 stance is that much of a contradiction. In terms of why I thought Espi should live, it's quite different - by then, Espi had done so much blabbering that he clouded up the thread. He basically took it on himself to say as much as possible so that it's impossible to sift through. As such, we're left in this scenario. From my perspective, certain pieces of Espi's game, particularly how hard he buddied me (and how I didn't really resist it) should townclear me, as I said before, but there is so much bullshit piled on top of what matters that it's hard to find information like that, particularly for you because you haven't been paying attention to his interactions with me for the entire game. Besides, he has a fairly significant connection with just about everyone and a lot of the info we can learn from him can probably be manipulated to townclear people or scumread people who shouldn't be.

As such, I thought he should live. His death only got us to today. That's obviously important, because if we didn't get to today, we wouldn't have a chance to win, but it was a shortsighted lynch. I don't think it helped clear up the picture at all. I thought that we should go after someone quiet, whose contributions were limited - i.e. easier to dig through for little bits and pieces. I chose to go after guak. I don't think he's mafia now, so I'm glad he survived the day.