Phase ends, please hold.

You got me :P

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Espi (5): guak, Damian, Vecna, DeathLlama8, bo_sox48
guak (2): Yoyoyozo, Espi

Espi, garnering suspicion since the crash landing, eventually invokes the ire of the crew enough to lead to his death. After stabbing him multiple times, the crew views his lifeless body oozing pinkish goo.

ESPI, aka MUKTHNUK the GODFATHER of the Martions, as been killed! Night 3 begins, you have 24 hours.

YES

DL is semi-cleared, though there was at least one member of the scum team bussing, so I don't know that it is fair to be entirely certain. Good call, though I genuinely don't think you could have made a bad call. There was no last minute blitz or save effort or anything like that and there should have been if guak were town.

Now lets look into the people that were actively trying to protect him.
-Ive been scumreading and trying to get him lynched for most of the time since day1
-Guak even though totally and utterly useless has been voting for him since day1 - elaborate bus or just useless town I have no clue.
-Bo has been on and off, but mostly has been scumreading him (see my earlier analysis on p50/51 for quotes).
-Even Damian has been pretty straight forward about wanting to kill espi this day. This is the part that really confuses me, and even makes me start to wonder about my own reads.

The only people that tried to lead the vote in the other direction today or were strongly trying to not vote for Espi have been mostly yoyo and DL. Bo also tried to get the Guak bandwagon going, but he is the only one of which im 100% convinced that he is town.

"Bo also tried to get the Guak bandwagon going, but he is the only one of which im 100% convinced that he is town."

That's not quite how it works

I need to reevaluate my life.

@Bo - I don't think anyone was actually on

Alrighto. Good job holding the course ladies and gents. We'll have this mars mission back on track in no time.

We know these martian bastards strike at night, so tomorrow we're going to be down another member of our fine crew. But we shall still have these critters outnumbered: 3 to 2.

Here's the roster of those who remain, and I've done my best to comb my memory to see who doesn't belong.
Guak - This fella seems a bit slow. I've asked him questions and I feel like I might as well be calling home to earth given the speed of the responses. But he seems to have a good heart, and a good judge of character. He knew something wasn't write with MUKTHNUK from the start. There is no way, no how he should be our target tomorrow. Particularly considering he was the alternative supported by at least on Martian today.
DL9 - I was wrong this morning. DL isn't filled with pink slime, he's a honest to goodness flesh and blood human like us. There is no way, now how I can see him working with us to take a narrow lead in choose MUKTHNUK as our target today, when if he had done anything else, we'd have been overrun. He's an earth man through and through.
Bo - This might be our final alien, although I'm hesitant to suggest all of the martians were voting together to attempt to ruin us. Given the risks inherent to that strategy. However it is possible, and has previously been noted aside from Guak, Bo is the only one who has failed to align himself with major lynch targets in the past.
Yoyo - This is it, this is our alien, I've been reviewing the holographic camera records, and he's been too concerned with looking human this entire game. I even saw him practicing his walking down the corridor. Not to mention he briefly agreed to kill Espi if it would make me feel better. This one is concerned about appearance more than any human crew member would be, wanted to prevent us from killing MUKTHNUK today and the attempts of the deceased MUKTHNUK to implicate him are worthless one way or the other. We need to judge him on his actions rather than trying to puzzle out the inner workings of an alien mind. You hear me Yoyo, we're onto you. Seriously, this is the one to get tomorrow.
Vecna - If he were an alien I'd have expected him to jump over to Guak when the opportunity allowed. He did early on lock himself in to only one of two targets today, and given the failure of a train to develop on a the second target perhaps he felt unable to adjust without giving up the game. I'd suggest either Vecna or Bo is our final Alien. Particularly given the recent example of buddying by Vecna: ""Bo also tried to get the Guak bandwagon going, but he is the only one of which im 100% convinced that he is town."". While I do think Yoyo is our best shot of catching an alien tomorrow I would encourage the entire crew to also consider the possibility that Bo and Vecna are the final two aliens.

I'm so confused.

Thank God! Live another day. Nice job crew. Now I guess I have to go back to scumhunt.

I think me and damian are the main NK targets so I will do my best to build my cases before morning

"I think me and damian are the main NK targets"

Okay

Vecna, your last post was just weird, mostly because of this quote:

"Bo also tried to get the Guak bandwagon going, but he is the only one of which im 100% convinced that he is town."

1. You sound like you think wagoning on Guak is anti-town.
2. If you think Bo is 100% town, you think he hasn't done anything scummy.
3. 1 and 2 contradict, ergo this post is weird.

@Damian - you say "There is no way, now how I can see him working with us to take a narrow lead in choose MUKTHNUK as our target today, when if he had done anything else, we'd have been overrun. He's an earth man through and through." You ignore the possibility of a Guak/Espi/DL scumteam?

@DL.
Yep. I think its pretty improbably. Why the hell would I gamble on that when we're going to be at lynch or lose all over again tomorrow. I'll take the more obvious choice.

Why push a scum team option including yourself anyway?

@DL - how is my post weird? Espi has been the top scumread pretty much all game from a majority of people yet he evaded lynching for so long. That post was pointing at people that in my eyes have done things to make him survive longer. Bandwagoning on Guak takes votes away from Espi, which was the thing I was pointing out with that post.

In my mind Guak isnt 100% scum yet. Since as I pointed out as well he actually has been the only one consistently trying to lynch espi. This might just be a ploy to make him appear town wheneverr Espi did get lynched - But he couldve easily swinged the vote during the last day to make mafia outright win there - if he was actually mafia.

And I indeed think Bo has hardly done anything scummy this game. There are a few small things but of all the people remaining, im by far the most certain that he is town. It is my perception and in my mind its close enough for me to state im 100% convinced he is town.

To reinforce the point I was trying to make; If my suspicions are right of the Espi/Maniac + DL or yoyo team - then trying to bandwagon on Guak is the likely choice to outright win the game there. He is an easy lynch target and the one chance they would have there to save Espi, hence why im giving it attention since it might lead us to the safe lynch option tomorrow.

Also, lol @ Guak. If mafia NK's either you or damian (which they cant since he's scum) they would be so bad.

There really is only one obvious NK target and that is Bo imo. All other people have been under enough scrutiny for the scum to launch a relatively easy lynch campaign against them.

@DL ... if that is true, then where were they? Surely if guak wasn't scum they would have had at least some sort of concern. They could have tied it, they could have blitzed it, they could have done a lot of things to win in that moment. The fact that they didn't, online or not, tells me that they didn't want to chance saving Espi because they wouldn't have won if guak died anyway, and guak is better hidden.

Guak's first post after the EOD seems fake to me as well, but I might be grasping at straws. I don't know, you all tell me.

@damian ... "Bo is the only one who has failed to align himself with major lynch targets in the past."

Have you read the thread? I didn't see the D1 wagon from start to finish. On D2, I was on a main lynch target. On D3, I was on both main lynch targets. I started the wagon against one of the main lynch targets. You're just spouting what Maniac said before you. He was wrong then and you are wrong now.

"I was wrong this morning. DL isn't filled with pink slime, he's a honest to goodness flesh and blood human like us. There is no way, now how I can see him working with us to take a narrow lead in choose MUKTHNUK as our target today, when if he had done anything else, we'd have been overrun. He's an earth man through and through."

What in the world is this read? I mean, I get what you're saying - DL tilted it against Espi. It just sounds awful. You could have said all of that in a few words. Honestly, are you imitating Maniac's style or something? This shit isn't you.

@Vecna ... you went through a major analysis on me. Why not go back and do so for some others?

Ok obviously Espi was bussed to no end, probably from the very beginning so all of D3 is WIFOM. However, this is a chance for us to look back at D1 and D2 to draw some connections.

Fortunately I'm free today and don't have such a hectic schedule so I'll start from scratch and see where I can go from there.

@Bo
"Have you read the thread? I didn't see the D1 wagon from start to finish. On D2, I was on a main lynch target. On D3, I was on both main lynch targets. I started the wagon against one of the main lynch targets. You're just spouting what Maniac said before you. He was wrong then and you are wrong now."
Yes. There is nothing wrong with either your D2 or D3 votes. I'm not sure why you think that we shouldn't be allowed to analyze your D1 vote just because you weren't there at EOD.

"What in the world is this read? I mean, I get what you're saying - DL tilted it against Espi. It just sounds awful. You could have said all of that in a few words. Honestly, are you imitating Maniac's style or something? This shit isn't you."
Have you seriously never played with me before? :P I'm not exactly known for being succinct. But yes I was attempting to pay homage to Maniac since I did replace him.

@Yoyo
"Ok obviously Espi was bussed to no end, probably from the very beginning so all of D3 is WIFOM. However, this is a chance for us to look back at D1 and D2 to draw some connections. "
This is the biggest pile of bullshit. There is no way in hell scum were trying to bus the godfather day 1 before we had lynched our own cop. Everything about what you're doing is so off Yoyo.

You can't make a case of alignment based on the ND wagon, damian. You can analyze the rest of the day all you want.

I would argue that Espi probably got bussed, though probably not terribly hard. The people who were simply following without really going after it are the people you want to look at.

@bo: why didn't mafia try to create a new train? Why do you say that there should had been a last minute blitz if I am town? If Yoyo is scum, the third scum changing to me would had guaranteed a scum loss, so holding the course would had been the only choice for scum. I think the fact that there were no attempts to create a new wagon help prove that I am town.

@DL: yes, I think I am a likely NK target. Care to elaborate why you don't think this is true? No matter how hard I have been lurking, I have been pushing Espi since very early on. That means mafia are afraid of me now.

From where I am standing, Yoyo is clearly scum and one of bo and DL is the last scum. If it is DL, he made a judgment call to bus at a time where he could come out as a hero. If it is bo, he simply conceded defeat and switched votes to try and keep himself off Espi.

So, the reasoning here is that either DL expected the last town voting for me, in this case bo, to switch and did not want to be left stuck on me along with his entire scum team, or, bo realized he was stuck with his entire scum team when the last town, DL in this case, changed to Espi and switched off to try and maintain some confusion.

If it is DL, it means he jumped the gun, a very risky maneuver. Thus, I think it far more likely that bo is the last scum.

However, it is worth noting that DL's conscious effort to avoid making a new wagon in the late day indicates that he wanted to form a new wagon, but did not want to risk looking scum for doing so.

"This is the biggest pile of bullshit. There is no way in hell scum were trying to bus the godfather day 1 before we had lynched our own cop. Everything about what you're doing is so off Yoyo."

omfg LOL. that's not what I said. Lol this was the most defensive reactive thing I've ever experienced in mafia. Lmao

Guys I think damian's our scum. That reads post was utterly weird and this reaction just did it for me.