Another replacement? This is getting too confusing.

Maniac being replaced could be a town tell of damian if you believe in meta. Damian seems like a last minute replacement, for which y2k must've used the list for game 15, which y2k would'nt have necessarily needed to do if Maniac were mafia, but completely necessary if he were town, in order to keep the game going. Idk its a stretch, but likely enough to deter me from wanting to vote for him.

Im going to switch my suspicions onto Deathllama and Vecna. Both have demonstrated a desire to solve the game in the past, Deathllama in past games and Vecna earlier this game. Vecna's usefulness has fell almost 90degrees since the end of D1. Deathllama's shows a significant lack of interest. It's almost like he's forcing himself to post.

I don't think either of those are bad choices persay. I sort of agree with your assessment of DL. Though, I just cannot bring myself to trust my instincts on that.

Vecna... its funny. Because my assessment was sort of the opposite. I mean. He was useless during the diplomacy tournament, but I feel like he has been more useful since his return than he was prior to leaving.

Given that we need all the town to vote together for this to be successful lynch I'm curiously if you think Espi is a bad target for todays lynch Yoyo?

@damian I am a very bad target for today.

@damian you are scum reading Yoyo, and me for that matter. If either of us is really scum, then any target we go for is either us bussing or us going after town. Because you know your roll and/or your scum team role, you would know which is which. Why did you ask a scum read if I am a good or a bad target?

@yoyo Maniac being replaced means nothing. If I recall, people also thought Maniac was soft cleared when he almost died D1 and the death message said his name. No one is soft cleared. As much as I hate to lynch damian, he is still Maniac.

@Espi
It was a leading question. I was trying to figure out if he was purposely excluding you from his list of people he was now shifting his suspicion to.

@damian this is a quote from him 2 pages back which states that reason very clearly. I don't know if i fully agree that wjessop flipping makes it impossible for me to be scum, at least from his point of view, it does from mine.

"Afte wjessop flipped town, it's almost impossible for espi to be scum. Scum wouldve given up trying to get him lynched a long time ago.
Bo is dumb
That leaves DL, Guak, Maniac, and Vecna.

Maniac has been acting wierd this entire game. I'm not going to act on this gut suspicion but vecna has done plenty of scummy things, many of them linking him to Maniac, such as his scum read on him based on his voting, which is dumb. There is plenty of info we have in this game, and he's demonstrated phenomenal insight into the game very early on, but he seems to not care."

@Espi
I must have missed that quote when I was re-reading.
@Yoyo
"Afte wjessop flipped town, it's almost impossible for espi to be scum. Scum wouldve given up trying to get him lynched a long time ago."
Explain further, please. Reading what you've written I'm drawing the exact opposite conclusion.

Yes I think espi is a bad lynch.

@Damian
Well in order to elaborate, can you explain why you're drawing the opposite conclusion?

Sure.
You said
"Scum wouldve given up trying to get him lynched a long time ago."
I'm assuming by him you mean Espi (if not I'd appreciate the correction)
If Espi were town, scum would have just let him get lynched a long time ago. Or if they thought it wasn't happening given up, like you've suggested.
If Espi were scum, scum would be making an effort to ensure he wasn't lynched both of the previous days. Which is what I think we've seen happen.

Or, scum went for me as an easy target and as soon as it appeared they could kill someone more valuable than I, they did so.

That's an interesting hypothesis. I doubt that any of the scum caught ND's hidden message prior to his reveal, meaning they couldn't have known he was a more valuable target. And frankly I don't think it makes much sense for use to assume that the scum are picking who they lynch. So long as they can secure the lynch of a town member they are fulfilling their victory objective. Its a hypothesis that relies what I consider to be unlikely assumptions. Thus I'm willing to discard it as highly improbable.

Look at is this way. I am the most likely to appear scummy, that is fact. Anyone else who is killed, is someone they don't have to use their NK on, and meanwhile by switching off of me, they allow themselves to go back to lynching me, saving me for a better time, or allowing wjessop and I to distract the town even more.

Now, assuming I am scum, which is what I am doing. Do you believe that those who have voted for me and switched, were scum trying to protect me and thus appear even scummier? Or do you think those that have not voted for me are scum and not wanting to risk my death with a vote?

Assuming they are going to manipulate the vote off of a safe lynch candidate (where they can be guaranteed not to hit scum) to any other candidate is not a good assumption. That manipulation is dangerous since it risks the vote swinging to a candidate scum don't want hit. We're at lynch or lose. I'm going to play the odds and assume the scum would have taken the more likely safe option of staying on a safe candidate if a safe candidate was available to them.

I'm not going to speculate as to how many scum would have voted for your, moved off your, or never voted for you in the first place. It is an exercise in futility.

In any event. It is time for me to sleep now. I will attempt to reply to any additional stuff in the morning

Below is every vote on me, along with the page of the vote and the final vote count for that day. ND voted for me once before he died but his final vote was not on me, ghug voted for me twice before he died but his final vote was not on me, Jeff voted for me 4 times and his final vote for me was on both days, wjessop voted for me 7 times before he died but his final votes were not on me. A special mention goes to blood who sorta voted for me.

Maniac has voted for me twice, guak has voted for me three times, Yoyo has voted for me twice, DL has voted me twice, bo has voted for me once and I have voted for myself once. Only Vecna has not voted for me. I have been voted for 26 times, not including bloods sorta vote, 14 of those votes have been from confirmed town, 15 if I include my vote for which I confirm myself as town.

What does this tell you?

Day 1
Ghug page 3, ND page 5, Maniac page 5, wjessop page 8, guak page 9, Yoyo page 10, Jeff page 11, ghug page 14, wjessop page 14, Jeff page 16, wjessop page 18, DL page 22, DL page 25

Day 1 Final Vote Count

ND (7): ghug, wjessop, Espi, Vecna, Yoyoyozo, Maniac, DeathLlama8
Espi (2): guak, Jeff Kuta
Maniac (1): bo_sox48
wjessop (1): ND

Not voted: BloodWolf99697

--

Day 2
Jeff page 31, wjessop page 32, Yoyo page 33, wjessop page 37, Espi page 37, wjessop page 40, Yoyo page 40, wjessop page 41, guak page 41, bo page 41, Jeff page 42

Day 2 Final Vote Count

Jeff Kuta (5): DeathLlama8, wjessop, Yoyoyozo, Maniac, Espi
Espi (3): guak, bo_sox48, Jeff Kuta
Maniac (1): Vecna

--

Day 3
guak page 49, damian page 49

If people would like, I could compile statistics like this for other people, or I could just list the pages of votes per day as I did above. If preferred, I could list votes on separate lines which takes up more space but is easier to track, although I believe Yoyo has a vote tracker that he still hasn't shared.

I must admit to feeling that my time finding this is wasted since almost no one comments on them. I also feel that I am the only one who is actually going back to find evidence.

Seriously though guys, this is ridiculous. We only have 50 pages during the 176 hours we have been playing, and hell, half of those can be attributed to wjessop and I. In M11 which was a very similar game to this, we had 54 pages at the end of N2. That game was 13 players, and we didn't lose one to a mod kill, but still. We have less than a day to figure this out and I have posted more on this page than most of you this entire day!

Where are the reads, where are the cases, where are the questions, where are the posts, where are the people?

I gotta read up. I'll do what I can before the deadline tomorrow, but I'm gone most of the day. I'll ##UNVOTE, because I don't think Maniac would have subbed out as scum in this scenario.

bo you had Maniac and I scum read, voted for maniac and are now unvoted and not even voting for me. I don't know what you are doing, but I don't like it.

Are your reads drastically changing?

Actually Espi, the voting thing is useful. At the very basis of this game you can deduce things based on the votes.

The trains on certain people have been taking off very easily. Trains on other persons have been nearly impossible to pull off, even though there was a lot of reason for them to take off. The main factor contributing to them taking off or not in my opinion is the willingness of mafiascum to go along in the trains.

The train on Espi took off quite effectively. Either it was indeed mafia going along with it and bussing him, or my reads on him have been wrong and he is indeed a townie making it very difficulty on himself.

The train on maniac almost took off, but was diverted quite quickly. And certain people were all too willing to switch, even without proper reasoning. I myself was one of them, although very hesitantly.

The train on Jeff apparently went off quite easily. He made it pretty easy though, so obviously mafia was eager to go along with this.

None of this really tells us too much sadly. On the day1 swing DL, Espi, me, Maniac and yoyo changed around our votes in varying degrees.

Maybe its time to focus a bit more on the people that have not been investigated a lot. It'll be interesting to have this investigation conducted by some of the prime suspects at this point. Apparently I am one of these going by the reads from some people, so I will partake.

I will focus my investigation on BO.
Espi, I would like you to investigate yoyo
Damian I would like you to investigate DL
Someone else should look into Guak. Im not sure who else is the prime candidate for a lynching today, but feel free to volunteer.

We should be thorough and look for any potentials that might explain the weird devellopments. One (and possibly even 2) of these 4 people has to be scum in my mind, and they've been completely under the radar untill now. Time to dig up the dirt so we can find the most likely person to be scum today since we cannot afford anymore mislynches. We need all the possible information

Want me to look into myself Vecna? Maybe I should just investigate you

@vecna you have been under the radar as well.

@guak we have had a few updates since you last posted and that is all you have to say?

@all I should probably go to sleep now, night all.

@Guak - thats fine, go ahead and investigate me. Some more clarity is always good

@Espi - Youre right I guess, although I meant it in the way of not recieving (m)any scumreads. People have voiced their concerns about my behavior from time to time while there have been relatively few scumreads on the people mentioned. Seeing how we've been wrong so far at almost every turn I don't think its a bad idea to shed some more light at them

Day 3 Vote Count #3

Damian (2): Espi, Vecna
Espi (2): guak, Damian
Vecna (1): Yoyoyozo
bo_sox48 (1): DeathLlama8

Unvoted: bo_sox48

Currently NO ONE is set to be lynched! 9 hours 10 minutes remain.

@Espi ... is that a problem? Should my reads stay stagnant? I was planning on voting for you, but I am unsure. Vecna trying to "lead" is a little funny, asis guak's reaction. I am largely focused on the latter and my vote may end up there, but I don't know yet.

I barely slept and I am either going to be driving all day or sleeping, so I doubt I will be around much.