http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=67759

Yeah, I'm really curious to see what the west does. I'm less confident after more consideration that it's a late-developing or secret western alliance. But heck if I know what it could be.

I like the Italian being aggressive. It's also not necessarily anti-Austrian.
Austria, getting 2 builds is great , now you will learn quickly about diplomacy and the social skill it requires. You should be talking to everyone round you. Offer the moon to anyone who will listen. You just need time.
England- good on you for getting the build. But that fleet in Belgium offers nothing to either the German or French. They both probably love that that is there. If you thought you were getting Belgium then the army was the play. That way both F and G would lobby for your alliance , and you could still bounce Norway with NS.
Turkey-you had to know you weren't getting Greece and no matter what your diplomacy with Russia was, he was going to take Rumania with a fleet, which is inherently anti-Turk. That fleet in Ankara is worthless. You should have taken BLA.

Lastly, everyone needs to consider the whole board on every move. Things are fluid. Yes, turkey, what goes on between E and F concerns you. Maybe not in the moment but in the long term for sure. The best example is Italy here. Little nondescript Italy has made himself front and center of everyone. Everyone is eyeing those armies and Italy can be a player in the east or west.

@ssorenn

How would England convoying to Belgium using EC at all prompt France to lobby for support? If anything that’d get France talking more intimately with Germany. I think Fleet to Belgium was the right move here. It’s neutral to both Germany and France, without being too idle.

As I'm not a fan of WT, a clear choice needs to be made. That army can go either way. A stagnate unit is what it is, stagnate. I think 80+% of games here go 2v1 in the west. Why not be actively involved. Both the German and French supported that move, the army has more use on the main land. Now France and Germany need English influence. Now if neither offered support than it may be different. This is the problem with making assumptions. We don't know the context of the press

Sorry, correction. You can't land the army and bounce Norway. My mistake.

Typing and not looking at the board. My apologies

That's forbidden but I have to write. My TA doesn't reply me for two days. I tried to contact by e-mail and site PM. He seems online but doesn't reply! I said Peregrine Falcon but he didn't turn me.

bump

gameID=209005
This is a game exclusively consisting of TA'S and professors.

bump

Italy has requested a three day pause while he is unable to access the site. The game will be unpaused when he returns.

A few questions for the professorial types in here:

1.) With England putting his fleet into Belgium, is he obliged to try a WT? What options does he have moving forward other than a WT, and how do those options weigh against a WT? This has already been somewhat answered already but not in quite as much detail as it should be given that basically every western power in every press game at some stage either floats or is floated the idea of a WT.

2.) Is Italy committed to attacking Austria? Obviously, press plays a role here and we don’t know it well, but I am curious to hear some thoughts on what creative things may yet transpire.

3.) How does Russia continue growing? Scandinavia is a nice prize for a crafty 1901, but it leaves a little bit to be desired in the south. Where are his next potential avenues?

The game has been unpaused and the phase reset. We're back in business.

bump

It's amazing how clear a picture you get of the alliance structure just from builds. Kinda sad though, because all the mystery is gone from it. Had Russia put an army in Sev, things would've been a bit more up in the air.

Will be interesting to see how much patience certain players have with their alliances. Gains will not be immediate or equal here

It looks like my theory about a late-breaking WT was mistaken!

A few brief thoughts on builds:

England -

What we know is that you are, theoretically, on the good side of both France and Germany. What we don’t know is whether or not that will keep up and whether or not you will be the one deciding who to fight or if one of them will decide for you. Your fleet in London suggests that you’re either against France or that you and France coordinated your matching fleet builds and are working together. If you’re working with him, when does he plan to turn south and what do you do with your units given his non-committal builds, and how do you plan on moving against Russia or possibly even Germany? If you’re working against him, how do you plan on convincing him that you’re working with him?

France -

The only indication that a WT doesn’t exist is your builds, but there are a lot of ways for a WT to form and you may be working on one. Germany built in as friendly of a way possible to you by all but committing to an attack on Russia by way of Scandinavia. Russia has enough strength to push back against him in his homeland if he so chooses as well. England’s fleet in London is easily countered by your own in Brest, and even if he supported himself to the channel, you would be able to threaten Belgium for as long as he threatened any center of yours, his biggest advantage against you. Italy is still stuck on just one fleet, and Turkey’s new fleet means that what little naval focus he can afford is somewhere else. You’re in fantastic shape and are in a position to propel yourself into the late game regardless of what alliance and direction you decide.

Italy -

I’m going to try and see the positives of a situation I don’t at all envy because I’m sure that you and your TA are well aware of the negatives. First of all, you have a good position against Austria, good enough that you’ll probably pick up a center this year from him, and good enough that Russia has to respect you. You can ask him for support, but he has his own agenda in mind as well, so anything you ask of him should be fairly simple and quick in nature. If you continue to build that alliance with him, especially if he focuses primarily on Germany and England instead of Austria, then you’re going to have a chance to beat Austria all on your own, so long as you can fend off Turkey and possibly France as well.

Germany -

Diplomacy is arguably more important for you than for any other power right now. With your builds, you have put yourself in a spot where you are going to fight Russia, despite apparently getting off to a good start with him in 1901. You have a couple of other potential threats - obviously, France and England could theoretically come your direction, but the odds of either doing so are probably slim. Italy could also end up being a threat to you in conjunction with Russia in an attempt to get Munich and Berlin off of you. Good press with all four of them this phase is paramount, and while you’re at it, establishing a good relationship with Turkey is priority as well.

Austria -

The positives are harder to find for you. Italy is continuing his reckless attack on you for reasons that only he knows. As difficult as I’m sure it is, you need to continue to hold the high ground with him. You will not survive without him on your side, full stop. On top of that, Russia and Turkey are quite clearly allied based on their A01 moves and the lack of a build in Sevastopol, plus the fleet by Turkey. There is probably no splitting them up at this moment as neither of them has the capacity to attack the other. Your builds will keep you alive for a time, but ultimately, with all three of them on you, you won’t make it, so you need to go out of your way to change the status quo if you want to get deeper into this game.

Turkey -

Your alliance with Russia is only going to grow right now. The fact that you convinced him not to build in Sevastopol despite the presence of a fleet in Rumania, a clearly disadvantageous unit in his fight against Austria, shows that you and he have built a steady relationship and that, at the very least, he is strongly considering other alleys besides attacking you and likely won’t attack you this year. You have the opportunity to go against either Austria or Italy with that fleet, but as Turkey, big and early growth isn’t necessarily a priority. As long as you keep steady and don’t totally lose any battles you start, you have time on your side.

Russia -

You are in a fantastic position to shape your own fate, but Germany’s fleet build in Berlin is a little bit unsettling for you. You can have three guesses as to where it’s headed, but hopefully you only need one. Considering your immediate conquest of Scandinavia, it isn’t a particular surprise that Germany is feeling a little bit remorseful about letting you in so easily, but it means that your first year didn’t end as successfully as it began and that your diplomacy has to stay on track if you want to stay in good shape.

Okay, well the alliance positions I had in mind are different than what Bo put forward. I guess that's what makes the peanut gallery the peanut gallery.

Austria and Italy are totally allied, bo

Well, I see lots of inconsistencies in the builds, and that to me means that most players haven't got a clear and defined strategy in mind.

Unfortunately that is the key difference between a top player and a good or average one.

Even a simple strategy is better that no strategy.

Russia and Turkey are sort of developing something of the sort, or so it would appear.

France, England and Germany appear to me to be a bit confused about what they would like to do. Finally Italy has a pretty simple strategy in mind and is sort of pursuing it - just needs to be flexible enlightened to accommodate a change of the circumstances require it.

Finally Austria - I think I recommended you bought yourself a new keyboard as you need to up your comms big time before it's too late...

It is a little tricky, gold. I try my best not to be blunt about who is allied and who isn’t, as I feel like doing that is me placing my own hand on the board. Sometimes I’m bad at that. I would rather speculate on what could be and be open minded about it. For example, France could, as ckroberts indicated, be poised to attack in the north. He could also be poised to move southward but wants time to move his fleet in Portugal into a better place before he makes that move. He could end up pulling a sea lion as well. As you say, Italy and Austria could be allied but I doubt it because Italy built that army. If I were Austria, I would not stand for that, but I’m a stubborn player in reality and perhaps need to take my own advice and be more open minded. As such, I don’t see how they could be allied by simply looking at the board but I could be open to the possibility and I hope for both of their sakes they are too.

Djantani, what do you think E/F/G could do? They all have some opportunities to make up their minds this phase even if their builds were noncommittal.

Bo, I generally share the same philosophy. However, in this case I thought there was a good opportunity to show how the same set of moves can be interpreted radically differently. And exposing the students to that argument would muddle the picture in their minds more, rather than put our own vision of the board into reality.

Fair. I can see it both ways.

Huh. OK. Here are one professor's grades for the turn. At this point, grades are going to necessarily include some cumulative element, but I'm trying to focus on the turn as it happened.

To my eye, France and especially Russia are doing the best by far in this game, with Turkey doing fine.

RUSSIA A-
Would Russia be much better off in Silesia, not Prussia? I can see one reason why Prussia, but generally I think Silesia would be better. Otherwise doing very well; you countered the move to Baltic, and anything fancy that Germany and England were thinking about doing up north can be in the worst case scenario met. I'm very curious what the Austro-Russian press looks like. Things with Turkey look great. Things with France look great. England is forced to choose between definitely protecting Belgium and keeping Russia out of Norway.

GERMANY D
This grade is bad because you've let yourself get into a position where you have to give up something important. You can't threaten Sweden, cover Kiel, and protect Munich all at once, much less try something more creative. If France and Italy can work it out, you likely are losing Munich, the most important center on the board. What did you think Russia was doing this turn? I guess Moscow could have been headed against Austria. But that fleet move to Baltic ended up being basically a waste.

When people talked about Munich just sitting around and not being helpful last year, avoiding situations like this is what they meant.

FRANCE B+
I'm not sure how things keep working out the way they do in the west, but here we are. It's hard to imagine England's move to EC was a mistake or whatever this time, that is is not anti-French this time. What does mean for France?

Well, you're really in not bad shape. Russia's clearly on your side in the north, and it guarantees England cannot get a build. You've got an army in Ruhr and you seem to have Italian help with regards to Munich (maybe--see below). If you want to hurt both Germany (immediately) and England (position-wise) pretty badly this turn, you can. But that also means that, for the short term, you have fewer obvious chances at growth yourself. There are French moves that set up an English attack very well, and ones that do not. Think carefully about where you want things to be two or three turns from now, and then imagine the moves you need to make this turn to have that come to reality.

At first, I thought the move to MAO was a mistake, and it may still prove to be. But there's some very interesting things France can do now. It will potentially look like a master stroke if things go well.

So, was France supposed to help Italy get Munich? Is it expected now? The fleet move to Spain suggests French uncertainty; at least now you know where things stand.

AUSTRIA B+
Still alive! Good for you. We won't know until this turn, but: Have Turkey and Austria come to some sort of agreement? If so, that would be an impressive job by Austria to keep in the game so far.

This grade is for the turn only, so, I won't belabor this point too much, but I don't see long-term what Austria is hoping to accomplish. Given the start, staving off certain death is good enough for now, but it's going to take some very creative play to climb out of this hole now that it's stopped getting deeper.

Assuming Austria did not know or could not trust Italy was going for Munich: I am OK with taking the risk of losing Trieste here, because it would be three armies vs. four Austrian ones, it was an unlikely move, and in Austria's situation there have to be some risks.

I have to imagine that Serbian army won't sit idle this turn.

ENGLAND D-
I don't like any of this. Did you know France was hostile? I worry this was supposed to be something tricky, like promising France a bounce and then planning to force it anyway. If so, then you have, as they say, played yourself. France in MAO is not that much better for you than France in EC, given the way things are going. Your German ally is not going to be helpful much longer, even if Italy completely turns around.

Germany and England's commitment to Scandinavia is proving to be a mistake, because while it also costs Russia a lot of units up north, Russia is able to focus on a single front. England and Germany must also face France, who is through luck or guile finding better tactical answers.

TURKEY B-
Doing pretty good. Your Russia partner is doing much better, which is a long-run concern, but you're probably fine now; there are much easier targets around. You also, if you can get things working in the Mediterranean, are about to have rapid growth opportunities yourself. If you are indeed working with Austria, who gets supporting to Ionian Sea? It's an important decision!

ITALY D+
This represents a failure of diplomacy. Making gains from Austria or Germany depends on getting help from France, Turkey, or Russia (and likely at least neutrality from the other of Austria and Germany). You didn't get any of them. Things aren't a disaster because that could be a very flammable Austro-Turkish combination, but you have to ask: Why would either of them believe they'd be better off working with you right now?

Things can still be OK! With a fortuitous turn, Italy can get a build and make it very unpleasant for a potential Austro-Turkish naval foe. But it's almost a make-or-break year.

I should be clarifying: Those were for spring 1902. We're now in fall 1902.

Ehhhh, this turn seems to be a complete clusterf**k to me. I'd give Turkey top marks, because I can't find a fault in his moves. Everyone else gets a yelling

Russia - why move to Prussia? Should your support to Bohemia succeed, Italy retreats to an open Silesia to threaten Warsaw. Should Italy's move succeed, Germany retreats to Silesia to threaten an open Warsaw. And from Silesia, you can threaten Ber and Munich, not just Ber. Also, the support on Bulgaria was not good. No need for it, it could jitter Austria

France - you ended up fine, but I really don't like the moves. Fleets go south, like you're attacking Italy. One army to Ruhr, but leave Bur exposed? And another to Piedmont where it can only threaten Belgium (or was it there for a support hold?). It seems like you're attacking all your neighbors at once or hedgehogging. I'm not sure which is worse.

Germany - why was Munich still. If you trusted Italy enough to not have it support held, you should've at least asked France for a tap in Burgundy. It would've kept him honestly. And is Holland just gonna sit there all day? You have the wrong resources in the wrong place. Fleet in Den much more useful than army. Neither you nor England appear serious about contesting Scandinavia, and because of your inaction, Russia will take it all. Get it together and actually start cooperating. The both of you are wasting units. Very interested to know what the heck the plan was supposed to be with France.

Austria - ffs support hold Trieste! If you were hostile towards Italy, those moves are probably one of the worst ones you could've made. Accept Russia support when it's offered. And be wary of the stuff going on south, and be thankful it's a fleet in Rum, not an army.

Italy - there's a reason why I said you and Austria we're allies during builds phase - because that's the only sane response for you that keeps you alive at this point. What are you doing, attacking GERMANY of all people. Of the people you should attack, he's last on the list. You either wrap around Austria to provide some sort of relief for him (since you're useless in the south) or you go balls deep attacking Austria. Every person on the board moved to attack you this phase, besides the one person you stabbed. You're doing something wrong here.

England - sigh. For England to be effective, you need that army off the island. I see no effort to get that army off the island. The longer you're ineffective, the longer you're no use to anyone. An England that's no use to anyone is a dead England. You have zero good expansion paths at the moment. Makes moves that actually provide you with one.

AUSTRIA

Under the circumstances in which you find yourself, an all out defense against Italy is your best choice. With a steamroller alliance bearing down on Austria from the east, the message to Italy is clear. If you continue with the current strategy of attacking Austria, the steamroller is going to get most of my centers and you will have to claw and scratch for even one. Hopefully, that message was received. Looks like your Italian press was successful as he used his spring move to try for Munich. But remember. It was just a spring move.

Your tactics were awful. I don't have a complaint about the supported attack on Tyrolia. If Italy had ordered A Tyrolia to Munich, you would have been able to force Venice in the fall. However, by making that attack, you risked losing Vienna to A Tyrolia S Bohemia to Vienna. At the same time, you ordered A Serbia to hold. With the orders you wrote for the move against Tyrolia, you should have ordered A Serbia supports Trieste to hold. You are lucky you did not lose both Vienna and Trieste.

Going forward, you need to cultivate an allies. Try to break up the RT. Maybe offer Turkey A Serbia supports A Bulgaria to Rumania. Point out that Russia is forcing Turkey to do all the lifting in the Balkans while he fattens in the north. Ask Russia for a DMZ in Galacia so Russia can move that army to Silesia. Russia is in conflict with Germany. A Silesia and a stable Austrian border would be most appealing to Russia. The French fleets threaten to pour into the Med. Use those moves and the Steamroller alliance to convince Italy of the need for an Austria ally. Your next set of moves are going to be determined by your diplomatic success. Unfortunately, you're going to have to trust somebody. Pick the right somebody.

ENGLAND

Based on these moves, it looks like France wants Belgium. This is the problem you created by moving your fleet there in 1901. What good is F Belgium doing? You're now likely spending most of your capital, diplomatically and tactically, defending a center that is not much use to you or anyone. I would assume you're losing Belgium and try to figure out a strategy. It might be defending against the French with F Eng-Iri; F Bel-Eng. It might be taking Holland from Germany with F Bel-Hol. But is that a good idea? Gutting Germany opens the door for French and Russian gains. Maybe France is not secretly allied with Russia. You will find out soon. You need to choose between a defensive E/G or an E/F that might have some play long term for you. Good luck diploming with France. Keep an eye on Russia. At least Russian armies in Scandanavia don't threaten Engalnd and Russia's next build is probably in the south

You need to talk to Turkey and Austria. They are your strategic allies.

FRANCE

You are doing well. By moving to Ruhr you have declared war on Germany. You probably get Belgium this turn for another build. If you trust England, maybe offer A Ruhr supports F Belgium to Holland. Probably guarantees success if England complies and A Pic-Bel walks in. Also, you can send F Spain to Western Med and hold in Mid Atlantic to ensure the Iberian centers are safe from chicanery. At the same time, cultivate a relationship with Russsia. Long term, that is a great ally for France.

GERMANY

I liked the move to Baltic. It means Russia cannot retreat there when you try for Sweden. You really need England. He is going to be under pressure to support the French. Be careful trusting England. Maybe F Denmark-North Sea allows you to keep Holland. A Berlin supports Munich could be cut. But Italy screwed the Russian last turn by passing on the move to Vienna. Maybe that gives you a diplomatic wedge. Maybe you can toady for Russia or France. You're between a rock and a hard place. At this point, I think you end up a toady if you want to survive. No shame in that. Sometimes it works out and you end up in a draw.

ITALY

You've taken a lot of heat for the Bohemian Crusher strategy. I have been openly skeptical of its benefits. As far as your tactics, I loved your support order for Tyrolia. That keeps your options open. In the fall, I recommend you use A Tyrolia as your mover. Support from Tyrolia for an attack on Germany or Austria isn't likely to hold up. However, a support order by A Bohemia or A Venice will be effective. You can also order A Ven-Tri to cut Austrian support.

Russia supported A Bohemia to Vienna last turn. You passed. That should show good faith to Austria. But Russia isn't likely to be too helpful next turn. Or will he? He needs your help against Germany and Austria. In my opinion, you could have a good turn this fall. I would be worried about the Turk though. He is grinding it out down south and you don't even own Ionian Sea without Austria's help.

RUSSIA

I am not sure what you are doing with A Warsaw. Were you trying to leave a retreat open for A Bohemia. Galacia can be dislodged this move. You're in a pickle if Turkey decides to ally with Austria. And Italy seems to be taking shots at Germany. That's not bad for you given your northern strategy, but an AT would be a disaster for both you and Italy.

You need to throw in with Italy. I don't see you getting a build in Scandanavia. But you also probably don't lose a center.

TURKEY

The good thing about Turkey is that you don't need early growth to do very well in a game. It would be nice if you could get a build. But it might not be worth burning your alliance with Russia for a center or two.

It's all looking delightfully messy :).

What's often happening at this stage is that alliances formed in the first year are being tested by nagging doubts. These are fuelled by the words of rival players, poorly worded messages from allies, general paranoia, and of course the comments of TAs and Profs. This often leads to players playing more conservatively, which again increases the nagging doubts of their allies who were expecting a demonstration of intent.

It is an excellent opportunity for a player in a tough spot to break enemy alliances and turn things around. The game balances on a knife edge. My only advice would be not to rule anything out.