That's a fair point about the downside of telling VTs to claim PR. It also makes it easier to mafia to fake claim. The proposal is problematic. I do think there are a few situations were a fake claim might make sense. Although the more I think about it the less I can come up with. I'd really like to hear what else Balki has to say about his proposal.

Given that only two mafia players visit townies at night, what is the most effective way to use track? Since more than half the scum won't show up as having visited anyone. With that said we should definitely declare roleblocks this game as they could be the information the JOAT needs to catch the role blocker.

I have to jet. Catch you all later

@Will reply to ND later, really have to leave now. Last post was @uclabb.

to answer ND, i saw DL's vote for TrPrado, checked that he made the referenced post, and voted him without double checking the list of active participants.

@damian- I have never played a game with a tracker before (and 1 shot shot tracker is certainly much different from a every night tracker) but it seems to me that a tracker can help confirm claims and also get more granular information later in the game with more flips. Using the track night 1 seems like a waste. I'd much rather shoot night 1 if anything.

guak reporting for duty

lol at Espi confusing ghug with me

@balki: damian was damn good in the first game he played

##VOTE Yoyo for saying I need to die without giving any explanation. That is clearly scum behavior

Can the vig shoot guak please? thank you

@ND " You produce a case on Wjessop and comment on TrPrado like he is playing the game were you also under the impression that he was playing and if so why?"
I hadn't checked the player list and I was just responding to the case made by DL. I assumed, incorrectly that he knew TrPrado was in the game before making a case. Apparently I was wrong.

@Uclabb - I see what you saying, since it is hard to get any information from a track. But I'd worry about not having enough information after the first round to make a good kill. Without any additional information, don't you think the JOAT would be likely to hit a VT round one. Which given all the mafia we have would make life harder on us. With a track if the person follows nobody, you know they are either a VT or one of the mafia power roles that doesn't visit people. So you do still get some information to make future choices with .

Skype call ended, I have to be in bed soon, but I can hang around for a little while longer before I leave.

I have six points to make.

1. Vanilla Townies Claiming PRs

I said what I wanted to say about VT’s potentially claiming. I’m not saying they all should claim. And I’m not telling anyone how they should do it or when. I’m just saying that I think it’s a good strategy in this setup for VT’s to be prepared to claim PRs. I think that, at least right now, more confusion about who actually holds the PRs is better for town. Later, the town is going to learn who was telling the truth and who wasn’t anyway. Here is a non-exhaustive set of examples of potentially good VT PR claims:

(a) claim a role in order to role swap and protect the true PR;
(b) claim a role to avoid getting lynched when you think the other person on the block is mafia;
(c) claim a role in order to get night killed and prevent mafia from killing a true PR;
(d) claim a role in order to reaction test;
(e) Soft claim a role for any of the above reasons

@uclabb, VTs claiming PRs does not negate the ability of a PR to clear him or herself down the line. A VT is not going to claim a PR and allow their CC to by lynched. But I believe it is important early on in this setup for town to keep information about PRs below the surface.

I don’t want to get into a long discussion about the merit of each one. I just want town to recognize that at least some of us believe there is a time and place for a VT to hard or soft claim a PR.

2. Claiming PR

On the subject of role claiming, I also want to note that, if you are a PR, it is not always necessary to claim your specific role. A claim of “I am a PR” is often better than “I am vigilante,” or “I am doctor,” as it provides enough information to town that you should not be lynched, while keeping important parts of the puzzle secret from mafia. I think this is especially true when there is a doctor alive in the game.

3. Town reads on WJessop and Damian

I found myself gravitating towards and reading the WJessop/Damian posts back-and-forth several times. The discussion has a real authenticity to it. I appreciate Damian’s early aggressive approach. I also appreciate that he put together a colorable case against WJessop, asked some questions, and then backed off “for now” after WJessop reasonably responded. Damian strikes me as a person trying to solve a puzzle.

I don’t agree with Damian’s case at all, as WJessop is probably my strongest town read at the moment. While he has not contributed much in the way of scumhunting, and has played a bit defensively, he comes across as fearless, with nothing to hide. I believe that con artist mafia scum WJessop would play differently.

4. Demon Has Aroused Suspicions, But Not For “Scumslips”

The post that stands out for me the most so far is Demon’s post on page 3. She says this:

“I'm getting those same vibes from wjessop as when he's been mafia the past two times. Short, nonsensical posts with quick accusations and absolutely no substance. Wjessop is already getting quite defensive and still continues to joke vote even when a moderately serious case has been set against him. Agreeing with damien's analysis right now.

[][]vote wjessop”

I don’t agree with that meta on WJessop (I didn’t play MX, but I read it). And WJessop’s early short posts seem to me both (a) an example of early joke posts that don’t matter, and (b) not the sort of thing that someone with something to hide would post. Also, I’m struck by the fact that there are quite a lot of divisions and accusations at play in the town already. I would expect the five Others among us to be mostly fanning preexisting flames, not going out on a limb to start new ones.

On the other hand, I don’t buy any of the “scumslip” arguments about Demon’s play so far. I don’t think that anyone is going to find mafia by watching carefully for who misuses a “mafia term.”

@Demon, you’re on a lot of people’s radars right now, for some good reasons, and some bad reasons. I hope that you spend the next 24 hours or so working hard for town and making strong arguments, so that we can all get a good read on whether your arguments are sincere or not.

5. Yoyo Needs to Play Better

Yoyo, I think your recent success has gone to your head. Your substanceless one-liners are distracting and useless. We need you to participate actively now so we can (a) benefit from your wisdom and (b) so that we can evaluate whether you are trying to help us or hurt us.

I think that many of our townies (READ: mostly ND, Yoyo, guak, CaptainMeme) underestimate the importance of (b). Don’t be so arrogant to think that you can stay out of the fray and then swoop in to save the day later. We need everyone providing their collective wisdom now not so much because everyone’s going to have good ideas to share, but because it allows us all to read everyone. I don’t want to have to wait.

6. Y2K’s Argument on Demon Strikes Me as Beneath Y2K

Y2K said:

“DO's natural reaction to being accused by wjessop of planning with damian to get wjessop lynched. I think she knows what "bussing" means, it implies mafia going after mafia. It's what mafia always think about doing, and i can only imagine the kind of bussing the mafia are plotting in chat right now. i think we have a scumslip here, and i think damian could be scum as well, i really don't like them blowing up at the Beyonce comment as if wjessop owed more at the time.”

“DO, you do know what bussing is though, right? if i were truly town and was responding to wjessop's accusation, i would think about him accusing me and damian of targeting him, not bussing him. why would you joke about bussing him in response to his accusation towards you?”

“DO, now you're defending using the bus as what the word actually means? or was it a brainslip? i'm confused.”

This was in response to DO’s comment:
“Yes wjessop, we planned to bus you an hour in the game!!! Totally unfailing scum strategy!"

@Y2K, several questions for you:

(A) Explain how someone misusing the term “bus” is alignment indicative. Is the whole argument that mafia would be using the term “bus” in their thread, and so that word would just come to mind quickly?
(B) If mafia were correctly using the term in their day chat thread, wouldn’t the mafia members be more likely to use it correctly?
(C) Haven’t you heard terms like “bus,” wagon, and “anchor” lazily flung around here by both town and mafia as meaning all sorts of things? All three terms have certainly been “misused” in MXI and MXII. What was it about Demon’s early comment that persuaded you so much?
(D) How convinced are you that Demon is scum? I’d really like you to put a percentage on it, to the best of your ability.

Y2K was really pushing this as a smoking gun. It makes me highly suspicious of Y2K. If Y2K is scum, Demon is towncleared in my book. This would not have been a bus attempt, but an attempt to pile on, and establish a townie lynch target.

I will not be fakeclaiming. I think it's a bad idea. But I'm glad that Balki brought it up. It's good to get people thinking about these things.

On what Balki said about making words count: The amount of time that a player can put into the game is possibly the most important resource. As town, it's our responsibility to keep caught up with the thread, do informed hunting, and to inform our fellow townies about the things we've learned. When someone makes a lot of joke posts, they're slowing down everyone trying to get caught up, and everyone rereading, looking for clues, writing reads, and building cases.

Joke posts are anti-town.

Up to this point, wjessop has made a bunch of joke posts, and spawned a multi-page debate about the value (or lack thereof) of joke posts. This is a waste of the town's time, both now, and when the town rereads these pages in the future. Thus it is anti-town.

At this point I have no reason to believe that wjessop is scum. However, he has done much more to impede town than he has to help. For that reason, I think the town would be better off without him. ##VOTE wjessop

I don't want a debate. I don't want a defense. I want contribution. My vote will sit on the person who has done the most to set the town back -- at least until D2, when we actually know something.

@JOAT - unless forced to, you shouldn't be revealing yourself until D5. If you track N1, what is the likelihood that the person you tracked is still alive by then? I'd track N4.

@ghug
Let the record show that I've hated meme and guak for the longest now.

@guak
I voted for you for the very thing that you're doing now. You just came in, lol'd and left. You're in the same boat with captainmeme.

I don't think people realize how dangerous they are to town as they are. If Flum didn't scan captainmeme last game, he would have slipped through the cracks, and while he was on my scum list, I don't think I could have typed a compelling case against him with how little he contributed. If he's the godfather, we've pretty much lost.

Other than that, two people who stick out to me are DO and wjessop. A lot of DO posts (with the exception of their defense) seems forced. For example, her reaction to finding out the TrPrado wasn't in the game seemed a bit excessive. I've also noted that wjessop seems to be very interested on what the mafia are talking about in the scumchat. It's funny how he suggests that DO and damian are plotting something in the scumchat when his little bout with DO looks staged as well.

.wollof ot stluser :revo tset noitcaeR

Full results will follow, but here is something interesting. In first four hours of the game (on first four pages) we had 115posts. Then I post. In following four hours on this page there is 17 posts. Why do we think that is?

Because everyone is asleep? It's almost 3am here

I feel like Maniac has never actually said anything directly to me. Is there something wrong with with me? :(

I appreciate that, right as things are just starting to get remotely serious, Maniac appears.

Also, wjessop is town because he read the role PM on page 1.

[That (ND, I'm looking at you) was an example of sarcasm, because as a matter of fact, I don't buy that one had to receive the VT role PM in order to get the Beyonce reference when the message is in the OP.]

@Balki … VTs should claim roles in order to save themselves. Roles with a shot should not necessarily shoot their counters. Role swaps are generally a bad idea and I would stay away from them, but you tried it last game, so I wouldn't put it past you.

I do question a couple of things, though - first and foremost, why are you reminding whoever claims at the end of the day not to claim a specific role? It seems fairly obvious. I think PRs know that.

It is strange, though, and I find it hard to read you off of that comment alone. Looking back at my last game as mafia. I claimed doctor on D1 and got the actual doctor (and consequently, the SK) to expose himself. I became an easy bus. Had I simply claimed PR, I doubt I would have survived any longer - it would have been quite apparent that I was in fact mafia when I survived night after night - and I wouldn't have gotten any information out of it for the team.

I also wonder why you're so quick to note "real authenticity" to a back-and-forth conversation at the beginning of day 1. That phrase seems out of place to me. You seem to think that damian played a good reaction game, and yet you don't say that. Instead, you say it's authentic, complimenting his play a couple of different times. Seems buddy-ish.

Also, how is Demon on a lot of radars right now? It's still page 5. Nobody is on a lot of radars. We don't have anything to go off of. I also find it strange that you are already saying things like "if y2k is scum, DO isn't." It's just way too early to be that certain.

I agree with you that it's too early to truly know if anyone scum slipped, and I'm surprised that it needs to be said. I also agree with you that Yoyo needs to play better, but it is also worth keeping in mind that he generally sucks. He's great when he needs to be but not until then. He makes a good point about meme, though.

@SS/Yoyo … What do you think about a policy pressure vote and/or lynch on day 1? I'm sick of lurkers. It's one thing to be busy and it's another to skirt by. I don't agree with your immediate vote on wjessop, but I imagine that, by the 24-hour mark tomorrow, we'll have some clear policy candidates.

Hi Yoyo, how you doing?

Maniac’s reaction experiment:

I wanted to test if mafia and town would react differently to something I posted. My post would infer that another player had role-claimed by breadcrumbing their role in backwards writing. The post ‘?cc ot gniog eno on si’ could be transcribed as ‘is no one going to counterclaim’.

My theory is that town may find in interesting that I thought someone had role-claimed, but mafia would be very keen to establish if someone had actually role-claimed so they could – via their backchannel – organise to either lynch them or force them to openly role-claim. In searching for the roleclaim they would be distracted and post less often than they had been doing.

This experiment, of course, could only be proved at the end of game if we have access to mafia’s PMs, but it is still interesting to look at the results.

I posted 4hrs after the game started and wanted to see how active people had been in the first four hours compared to how active they were 4 hours after my post.

I’m aware that activity is based on many things; people work, people sleep, people go to school, etc, etc. I try to address this by looking more closely at those who had posted within an hour before my post.

Results:

In the 4 hours before my post these were the most active players:
Wjessop – (24 posts), DeathLlama9 (19), Damien (14), Demon Overlord (13), Espi (13), y2kjbk (12), Ghug (7), Balki Bartokomous (4), Captainmeme (3), Yoyoyozo (3), ND (2), OB_Gyn_Kenobi (1), Uclabb (1).

Of these, those that were active AND posted within 1hr before my post were: -
Damien, Demon Overlord, Espi, y2kjbk, Ghug, ND, and Uclabb

Following my post, Damien posted 4 times in the next 4 hours. Demon Overlord, Espi and ND did not post within 4 hours after my post. Y2K, Ghug and Uclabb posted just once within 4 hours after my post.

If my theory holds (that mafia became preoccupied with finding the fake roleclaim and reduced their posting), then Demon Overlord, Espi and ND become suspicious. Damien, Ghug and Uclabb’s posting rate wasn’t affected much and Y2K’s posted but his post rate fell.

In addition there were two new posters, Guak, (4) and Saladinsmith (1).

In summary I’m going to point my finger of suspicion at Demon Overlord, Espi and ND and give a little slack to Damien, Ghug, Uclabb and Guak. These will be reflected in my next UTT update.

@Balki

(A) Explain how someone misusing the term “bus” is alignment indicative. Is the whole argument that mafia would be using the term “bus” in their thread, and so that word would just come to mind quickly?

Yes that's the gist of it. Weak argument, but it stood out to me as one of the more relevant things to happen in the early game.

(B) If mafia were correctly using the term in their day chat thread, wouldn’t the mafia members be more likely to use it correctly?

DO's use of it was quick and reactionary, she didn't think about it or discuss it in QT chat if she's scum. She just got defensive towards wjessop.

(C) Haven’t you heard terms like “bus,” wagon, and “anchor” lazily flung around here by both town and mafia as meaning all sorts of things? All three terms have certainly been “misused” in MXI and MXII. What was it about Demon’s early comment that persuaded you so much?

Yes, it's a weak argument, sure DO could have just been lazily using the word. These questions sound repetitive and leading.

(D) How convinced are you that Demon is scum? I’d really like you to put a percentage on it, to the best of your ability.

70%. Hard to be much more sure about anyone being scum now, but DO at 70% is my highest estimation.

Balki, those questions were pitiful. You didn't even reference DO's follow-up vote on wjessop after Damian, which you go into great detail before your questioning of me. You made 4 questions that were essentially just forcing me to say "Sure, I'm not 100% confident that DO is scum". I think your post looks long and drawn-out and is a convoluted protection of DO after you gained town-cred. You're on my radar now, Balki :)

I'm back!

@ND - It was a combination of skimming through the thread and misreading "Toemato" as "TrPrado" and seeing Prado post in the sign-up thread, which I thought he wouldn't do if he wasn't playing. Oops.

@Maniac - why are you using four hours as your reference frame? There's not much potential softs to go on, and I assume mafia would be done by then.

@y2k - why do you seem so sure that Demon is scum? It's page five

@uclabb - "However, on reread it looks like it was pretty much just damian and DO, so I think it's probably a dead end."

You mention that you think Damian is town, but why don't you think DO is scum?

is 70% really that sure? when i made my argument and voted i was even less, probably 50%, but that's enough for a pressure vote in my mind. but since my vote with DO's defensiveness, now Balki's really weird indirect defense of DO through an accusation towards me at the end of a huge wordy post, I'm at 70%. DO needs to do something that proactively makes me think she's working for town.

Sorry, I'll have to actually wait until after work to engage properly. Life is hard when you work in the one government dept that actually expects student workers to do shit.

look forward to hearing more from ya

other thoughts, i'm leaning town on ghug, uclabb, and Maniac. jury is still out on bosox, DL, and yoyo.

i think i'm actually starting to lean more town on Damian. his argument against wjessop does seem somewhat honest.