Wow, costly misordered support by Austria and suddenly it is a whole new ballgame. This is a good time to remind everyone to doublecheck your orders, especially if entering them on phones.

Austria - Obviously I am not surprised that Italy went for the attack on Tri, but that was compounded by the misordered support (Ser supported Gre to Alb instead of Alb to Gre). And Russia guessed right on which Turkish unit would attack Rum (I could see either depending on what Turkey decided to do with his other units). Almost worst case scenario. Even without the misorder Austria would be losing a unit and Turkey gaining one, but now it is two and two. At least the attack on Moscow was successful even though England did not hit StP. Austria will need to regroup, choice wisely on the builds and see where next year takes things.

England - Well played, I like the attack on Den from Nth with support. Two builds, your clustered forces are only slightly out of position to hit Germany and best of all he gets no builds and now has to defend his home centers. With Austria taking Mos the Russian unit in StP is now cut off from the rest of his forces, though you may have a tough time getting into position to take that and get control of the Baltic for use against Germany. Would be easier if the units in Nor and Swe were reversed probably, but when that is your biggest problem you know this year has gone well for you.

France - maybe you aren't quite dead yet after all. Sure you lost two home centers, but England had a great turn and Germany gets no build this year and now has to defend against those English units to his north. Also Italy and Austria are no longer playing nice, though that would be better for you if Austria had taken Nap than Italy gaining another unit from Austria. But still it is better than nothing. Once again I feel compelled to mention that trying to hold both Iberia and Brest in the coming year will probably result in you losing both. Pick one and hold it at all costs and hope that one of Germany and Italy pulls back for defense.

Germany - not as catastrophic as what happened to Austria, but this is the first turn where you have hit some adversity and things didn't go your way. Still in a good spot, but now you definitely have to deal with England. France's retreat from Par (Bur or Bre?) as well as France's disband will say a lot about whether you are still in great shape or in a little bit of trouble.

Italy - your position didn't improve quite as much as Turkey's and England's this turn, but that is only because you were ahead of them coming into it. Whether the move to Tri was in response to Austria in Ion or just a good old-fashioned stab it puts you in a great spot. With France down to 3 units Iberia will be yours if he tries to hold Bre and you have to love that Austria needs to remove two units and now faces a growing Turkey while you build two units. The only possible downside I see is if Austria throws everything at you now out of spite and Turkey turns into a monster rolling in behind the Austrian forces.

Russia - silver linings, England didn't take StP and Turkey just got a lot stronger and Austria a lot weaker. The bad news is you probably won't be able to benefit from it much, but you may be able to hold Sev for a while with Turkey's help and if England leaves you alone in StP to go all out vs Germany you can stay at two units for a while. The fact that one of them is a fleet in Sev means you likely are done taking centers this game though.

Turkey - Austria's move to Ion proved costly and the misordered support really benefitted you. With no threat to you from Russia and Italy and Austria likely to be at odds you are now in great shape. Whatever units Austria disbands can only help you.

New rankings at end of Year 3 in tiers
Italy, Turkey, England, Germany - In good shape for draw, potential for solo. I rate England just ahead of Germany since one is allied with France and the other at odds.

Austria - not in as much trouble as France and Russia, but definitely a notch below the other four now. Year 3 went as poorly as the first two had gone well.

France - outlook is bleak but better than last year. Still a chance you could get back to 4-5 units though not likely.

Russia - I don't like your chances to be around for the endgame, but Austria's mistakes and England leaving you alone in StP mean you probably stay around an extra year or two. If you can somehow find a way to get back to 3 units then maybe you can stick around.

Bumping for Bo and 2WL's take on year 3 fall moves.

Also before I forget, my earlier analysis left out that Russia has the option of retreating the army in Mos to Liv. Two armies next to each other probably a lot more useful than an army in StP and a fleet in Sev. Especially since Austria has two disbands coming and there may be a chance to take Mos back next year.

Just moved into my dorm, Yaleunc. No need to wait around for me; I've got little time online at present. If I manage to provide something for this phase, it'll be late tonight.

Bumping this up for previous commentary.

I lied. I have a little while.

1903 Autumn:

England - I stand corrected. You outguessed Germany, who, for whatever reason, elected not to bounce you in Sweden. Nice job. Luck played in your favor. Ironically enough, you would have gotten St. Petersburg if you'd tried, the less risky play, but by taking Sweden you keep Germany from retreating there, which is extremely valuable. With you (potentially) breaking into the Baltic now, you're in a fantastic position, but you have to keep growing. It's very easy for England to get stuck where you are, but you can't do that. Continuing to grow while France and Germany continue to shrink ensures your spot as a late-game power.

France - The dominoes continue to fall, and they aren't falling your way. However, England's progression on Germany offers the tiniest sliver of hope. You never know what the change in momentum around you could do for you.

Germany - Like England, you have to keep growing. You could potentially be in trouble, but it's important that you realize that, with a good year next year, you could easily get England stuck out of your home centers (and potentially out of mainland France if you and Italy take it all) or even turn the tide back against him with some luck. Keep moving west, accept that you're poorly defended in the east, and work to correct that through builds, not through a mass retreat. As Yaleunc implied, this is our chance to see how you respond to adversity.

Russia - Going down with dignity. I can appreciate that. You screwed Austria over, and without your support against him, he'd have just one disband and still be in a decent position - not so anymore. Your hope now is that with Austria's disbands, you can potentially regain a hold in your homeland and salvage something here.

Turkey - Very, very well done. I'm not sure what happened with Austria, but you kept Greece (misorder?), and that bodes well for you. You now threaten him dearly, and he's forced to choose whether he trusts you not to inflict lethal damage or not with these disbands. You got the help you've been so long looking for from Russia too, and after all this time, you've got some power. The biggest question in my mind is whether you reward Russia for his loyalty by helping him get back on his feet or kick him while he's down and take it all for yourself.

Italy - Admirable moves. You did the correct thing by refraining from the move that many players are often baited into when a country like Austria takes the Ionian - retreating. Instead, you remained patient, and now you're here with two builds and a chance to keep Austria from inflicting any serious harm despite the fleet. He also now has to consider disbanding that unit, which would give you innumerable options, including a particularly inviting one in the far east.

Austria - No nation more exemplifies the phase-to-phase nature of this game than Austria. You got unlucky with a misorder, and you got unlucky in the Russian collusion against Rumania. I wouldn't say you got unlucky with the move to Trieste as it's been waiting for a long time, but you're unfortunate to have to deal with it now as opposed to a more opportune time. Hope is not lost, but all of a sudden, of the five remaining powers (up from four last year), you're probably the next to go unless something drastically changes. To make that drastic change happen is now your goal.

Rankings as of Autumn retreats, 1903 (just for fun):

Italy - A power since the beginning, and the opening of a second, potentially more valuable front bodes well.
Turkey - On the face of things, never a power, but Turkey is always a power until he's below his three centers. This game is further proof.
Germany - Ahead of England only because England is still stalemated in Denmark and because the North Sea coastline is now protected. Will only stay ahead of England if he's able to take Brest *and* build a fleet to contest.
England - As before, still stalemated, but in a very promising spot. The progression you make this next year to cross a stalemate line somewhere, be it in Russia or Germany, will be critical to your long-term aspirations.
Russia - *If* Austria disbands Moscow, you're back in the game. If not, you might as well be on the same plane as those listed below.
Austria - If you can make smart disbands, you're ahead of Russia. If you give one of your three adversaries too much breathing room and break this very delicate situation open for one of them, you're done.
France - For the first time, your defeat isn't assured, but it's still highly improbable that you see the end of this game barring something crazy, even with Germany and England in a tough fight.

Now that we're definitively out of the starting phase of the game, could the profs perhaps reflect on some of the larger scale choices made by the powers. Not only in terms of success (because hindsight = 20/20), but also in terms of pros and cons.

In particular, could you comment on the utility of attacking a weaker power, as opposed to letting them struggle and using them as buffer or ally. In this game, France started pretty weak due to a combination of moves, leaving E/G/I with the opportunity to either attack or let F struggle. These three powers each chose differently, at different paces. Something similar occurred in the east, where Russia opened pro-Austria, which Austria could have reciprocated, but chose not to, but rather to double down the attack.

Should you attack a weaker power or leverage it? Should you challenge a stronger power or be a pliant ally? On the basis of which calculus should you make those decisions?

The key in gunboat is to read the board and try to anticipate what the other players are most likely to do and then put yourself in position to take advantage of that. So it really comes down to whether you think you will benefit more from teaming up against the weak country or taking advantage of not having to defend that border much which lets you concentrate elsewhere.

England and Germany chose differently in this game and I think each made the right call given where their units were after turn one relative to France. With Italy not engaging Austria or Turkey in the early going it was clear he would be moving on France, so from the perspective of England the reality was that by the time he could get into position vs France Germany and Italy would already be entrenched and grabbing centers, leaving little for England (probably just Brest and then that becomes Germany's first target once Paris is controlled). So that means England is better off taking advantage of not having to waste units defending the Channel and/or Liverpool and instead massing forces up north. Meanwhile for Germany the fact that Italy will be threatening Marseilles early means that the weak France will be overwhelmed meaning easy German advancement into Belgium and then Paris. This happens whether England moves on France or not.

To put things in more general terms, each scenario is unique, but your decision should factor in whether the advantage of being able to focus on other fronts outweighs the likely gain from going after the weakened player. A final factor to consider is whether turning away from the weak player will result in the weak player throwing everything at you and abandoning their home centers. That usually results in them dragging you down with them.

Bump

Brief comments on the retreats and upcoming builds.

Austria - Budapest only option for retreat but obviously preferable to disbanding. Disbands will be tough. Probably not worth keeping Mos unless you also keep Ukr, but disbanding both those units means Mos is gone next year and War probably as well. Disbanding the two fleets another option, but then no leverage to threaten Turkey and also tough to get Italy out of Trieste, especially since Turkey will be putting heat on your armies in Ser and Bud.

England - Probably two fleets, maybe one fleet and one army. With no threat from France likely not building in Liverpool, unless you want to try to grab a piece of France or offer support.

France - not sure I'm crazy about the retreat to Brest. I would want to be in Gas (and disband Bur) if planning to try to hold off Italy, whereas I think I still might want to be in Gas and Bur plus keeping the fleet in MAO if trying to hold off Germany.

Germany - Retreat to Bal gives you more options for next turn than Kiel, so good choice. No builds coming but also no disbands.

Italy - I'm guessing army in Ven and fleet in Nap, but I guess two fleets or two armies are viable options too.

Russia - Livonia only retreat option, preferable to disbanding during retreat phase. I think keeping the two armies makes most sense since the fleet in Sev can't work with either of your armies (though it could work with Turkey). Since Austia has to disband two units there is a decent chance Mos and/or War comes into play for you next year with two armies, though it may cost you Sev in the process depending on how Turkey decides to play it.

Turkey - Smyrna occupied, unit in Con seems likely to be a fleet, Ankara could be either, though probably an army makes a little more sense.

Bump.. 2 hours till phase ends.. France & Austria pls enter orders

Paused.

The game is paused, so we wont see it in practice, but for our students it might be good to know the rules of autodisbandment in case a power does not submit orders. The rules state that 'the unit farthest from the 'country'' (sic) are to be disbanded first. Adjudicators have interpreted 'country' to means 'home SCs'. If equidistant, fleets first. If still equal, follow alphabetical order for those equidistant provinces. This is aguably the least well-phrased portion of the rules imho.

Leaving regulatory issues aside, the correct autodisbands should be: A Mos, then F Ion.

Note that I have seen the adjudicator do this differently on occasion, something I've been meaning to look into.

Do you know if it counts distance from original centers or only ones still under control? I would guess it would have to be the original one in case you don't have any

Home centers under control I believe.

So what's the disband order if no home SCs are owned?

Chaqa, I don't think that's right - at least not on this site. The distance from home centers is precalcuated, so it doesn't change based on center ownership.

TC is correct. Home centers don't change and the distance is precalculated.

Looks like they all have build orders saved now so Bo or 2WL can impasse this one now.

Unpause not impasse.

I went ahead and unpaused

Thanks y2k. I can cover the phase later tonight. It's tough to write on a train...

Further to the discussion of disbands when none are submitted - I looked up the DATC test cases for builds:

The DATC use distance from home centres (regardless of ownership). Also, for fleets distance is calculated by only looking at sea provinces for fleets, but by counting both land and sea for armies (because convoys contribute to the distance for armies).

Some adjudicators say that you shouldn't count sea provinces as distances for armies if the disbanding power has no fleet left. Test case 6.J.11 leaves this up to the adjudicator - and I believe the webdip adjudicator always counts sea provinces for armies (though don't quote me on that). This feels correct to me - otherwise you could have unreachable provinces.

More in my upcoming book "Disbands and you: What your parents didn't tell you."

Er, that should read: "Also, for calculating the distance for fleets, only sea provinces are used, but for armies, both land and sea are counted (since armies can convoy across sea)"

@TC: while you're right that it's technically up to the adjudicator's interpretation, the good practice is indeed what you mention: counting legal moves by fleets, and counting adjacent provinces for armies. Or, as it is phrased under 4.D.8.: "Fleets may only move regularly, but armies may also move as a fleet (so, a convoy is not counted as one move, but one plus the number of fleets involved)"

Also, bump! We have builds and disbands in!

Build thoughts

Austria - Ditched the fleets, probably the way to go, but now you are strictly land-based. Have to hope Italy and Turkey get in each other's way or else you will get crushed between them. Dislodging Italy from Trieste very unlikely now.

England - not crazy about the fleet in Liverpool since it is further away from a useful spot. Edinburgh could move to Nth freeing Lon to move to the Channel. The Channel and Nth seems preferable to NAO or Irish Sea and Nth since the Channel can support MAO or be used against Germany (or Brest) whereas NAO can only support (or attack but how will that work without support) MAO.

France - Spain really the only viable disband once the retreat went to Brest instead of Gas. Spain is lost now, but Portugal can be held for this year. Holding Brest will depend on guessing right and whether Germany pulls back for defense on presses the attack.

Germany - no builds. France's disband helps Italy a lot more than you, but England's build in Liverpool works in your favor.

Italy - the expected builds by you and your neighbors/rivals made disbands that help you as well. Spain is yours this year, can you pick up another Austrian center as well? Confrontation with Turkey looms.

Russia - ditching the fleet best of a bad situation. The Austrian disbands unfortunately don't help you at all, so you are still in big trouble in this one. England building in Liverpool over Edi increases the likelihood that you hold StP this year, will be tough to hold Sev but Mos or War may be possible for you to grab.

Turkey - the expected builds, especially fleet in Con. Austria disbanding both fleets accelerates conflict with Italy as your fleets can advance unchecked this turn. Austria's moves this year will likely determine which of you and Italy makes the most gains against him.

1903 Builds:

Keeping it short and sweet. Partially because there's not a ton to say quite yet and partially because - well, college…

England - Interesting right off the bat. Headed for the Med? Not a bad strategy. I'm interested in seeing what you have planned for this phase either way. Make sure you don't lose your eye on that pesky North Sea though.

France - Not sure what else you could have done. Long-term, your only option is to try to survive in Portugal and hope England might save you, temporarily at least.

Germany - No moves, but the retreat to the Baltic is definitely interesting. It shows that you trust yourself to make the right moves to protect your centers. The question is whether you take England's builds as a potential gesture of kindness or whether you simply see it as a potential for new momentum.

Russia - See French commentary. Austria clearly isn't willing to surrender his front against you so he might be considering a survival bid in your homeland himself. If it were me, I'd die trying to make him pay for that, but it's not, so you decide.

Turkey - Army/fleet is usually a safe bet, but now that you aren't contesting Austrian fleets anymore, the question is whether you think those fleets have the power to take on Italy. I know what I think the answer is - do you?

Italy - Again, a safe army/fleet combo. The fleet gives you long-term potential, and the army gives you a little bit of support in Austria, though not necessarily enough depending on what he does. The good news is that France is handing you another center and Austria is in better position to defend against Turkey than he is you, which is the direction I think he's poised to look this year. The bad news is that Turkey is going to get bored in his corner very soon and England wants a Mediterranean presence. That's so British of him - trying to colonize what's not his.

Austria - I'm both relieved and a bit stunned that you didn't give up Russia. It signals that you're throwing in the towel in a sense, but it also shows that you thought this through because you could, with a bit of luck, pull out a decent year. I'm curious as to what you have planned (and I don't want your TA to spoil it for me this time!).

Why are we paused?