I'm done with this game for the night as I have to go out.

We must remeber we need 4 town voting the same way. The only comprimise candidate I can see so far is Espi, although I'm a lot weaker on him than I was before vecna explained his mistake which led to me and others thinking he and espi were scum.

At the moment I would vote yoyo, bo and espi - could everyone post their top three, don't worry about reads for now.

thx

I wish someone would concretely tell me how I am dumb as opposed to latching onto the idea that I can't possibly be right simply because I am me.

Maniac, you explicitly said you didn't have a read on guak. Obviously, you don't think he is scum, given that post, so what is your read on him?

Alright, sorry I have been MIA. It's recruiting season and I had a couple of interviews and lots of travel. I am in Portland right now. Catching up now and will give my comprehensive list of reads.

Alright after rereading these are my observations and reads:

1) Maniac is town. This should be obvious to anyone reading this thread. His willingness to die in D1 is something scum Maniac would never ever show. Maniac is a survivor.
2) Espi is Scum
3) Two out of bo, Yoyo, Vecna and DL complete the scum team.

Why Espi is scum?
Besides the obvious fact that if you read the first 20 pages you will find a million contradictions and slips (like saying the rest of the scum team), you will see that these two facts are solid evidence:

p20: espi says going after wjessop is too easy
p22: Can I even vote for ND? I have said time and time again that I thought he was likely to be town, and my switching votes right now is the scummiest thing I can do. Hell, since you are trying to sway votes onto him it makes me look like I just simply followed you onto it to take no blame myself if he pops up as town. Why am I so tempted to vote for ND?

Later, after ghug says town shouldnt care how they look Espi votes ND, he says:
p22:

Fuck...

I am so going to regret this. ##Vote ND please be right, please be right, please be right.


As to why his scum partners are two out of the group of Yoyo, bo and DL, here are the scummiest things each one of these guys has done.

Yoyo defends Espi during the 'acting clueless' show he put on at the end of D1.

bo has done two really scummy things. The first one is related to Espi. When Espi was clearly leading the vote in D1 and everyone was pretty much convinced Espi was scum, bo was the one to divert attention from him and plantedthe seed of doubt. The second was that on p19 bo was certain that Bloodwolf would flip town if modkilled. Only way to know this is by being scum.

DL also tried to divert attention from Espi, but subtly. He focused oncreating new wagons. Among them Jeff's for random voting. Something Jeff always does when he is town. DL should know that. Weaker than bo or Yoyo in my opinion but still a possibility.

Vecna: wjessop mentioned a possible link between Vecna and Espi. Could be worth looking into given that wjessop is now dead. Not as strong a scum feeling as that of bo and Yoyo.

##VOTE Espi

"The second was that on p19 bo was certain that Bloodwolf would flip town if modkilled. Only way to know this is by being scum."

The only reason to care about Bloodwolf being modkilled was if he was town. If he was mafia, it wouldn't have changed anything the town does, so I addressed it with the presupposition that he was town because that is the only way it would have mattered to how we played D1. I said that:

"If Blood is modkilled and he is mafia, we're all better off, Espi, so I'm discounting that possibility. At that point, it doesn't matter what we do."

"When Espi was clearly leading the vote in D1 and everyone was pretty much convinced Espi was scum, bo was the one to divert attention from him and plantedthe seed of doubt."

Show it. I scumread Espi throughout D1 and beyond. It simply didn't play into my D1 strategy of taking out a non-contributor to lynch him. I made that clear too on page 17:

"I made my case that we should hold out on lynching talkative scum until day 2 because we can then have 72 hours more of information off of them, totaling 120 hours, as opposed to the 48 hours of information we get off of them if we lynch them today. Ghug made a fair point that we only have two mislynches, but I don't think that my strategy is anti-town in that way. I think it makes today a bit more of a challenge but with a higher reward, particularly if we catch the lurking scum that, in a game with only two mislynches and only one power role, we are almost bound to be dealing with."

ND died on D1, followed by ghug on N1, Jeff on D2, and wjessop on N2. All were talkative players (Jeff to a lesser degree, but he didn't lurk like his predecessor). With the four of them dead, activity in this thread is also lacking. You're a part of that, but I'm glad you're here. Had we taken out a lurker or even two in the first two days, this thread would be more talkative and we would be able to gather more information. It proves my point that keeping contributors, mafia or not, alive on D1 increases activity later, and if they are mafia, gives us more information to go off of.

##UNVOTE

"We all know that Bo thought it was MYLO, as evidenced by him voting to concede the game. We also know that Bo thought Jeff was town and Espi scum. In such a close vote, Bo need not have worried about a tie in MYLO - obviously a tie is far better than a mislynch and insta-loss."

I agree. However, forcing a tie would have simply gotten me lynched next, which would be a loss as town if it were MYLO, so I would never do that as town. The only time I have forced a tie was when I was mafia and that wasn't in MYLO.

"Taking that into mind, I don't think Bo's attempt to push the lynch from Jeff to Espi was really all that strong enough, especially since he was the only Espi-lynch supporter on."

I wasn't certain that Jeff was town. I acknowledged scummy things. I simply meta-read him as town because I watched him last game, after he replaced me, and compared that play to his play in this one and it was extremely similar. In the last game, he didn't have to defend himself against the actions of his predecessor, which is where most of his activity stemmed from. In terms of scumhunting (or lack thereof), posting fluff, and being useless in general, his play was like town Jeff. Mafia Jeff, who I was partners with, was smarter, more invested, and more aggressive.

You are also hedging, DL, in your analysis. You conveniently ignore that I thought I caught Espi in a major scum slip. Turns out that I didn't, but that's not important. What is important is that I made that clear, pushed on him for it, and yet you completely ignored it and instead acted like I simply voted for him to avoid voting for Jeff.

@guak ... why aren't you scumreading Maniac based on his read of you that I talked about D1? Do you not find that characterization of your mafia play as hedgy as I do? I see it as him refusing to read you because he didn't want to scumread you and wake you up, but he wanted to plant the seed that maybe you are scum.

Of course, maybe you're partners and he didn't want to full on bus you, but I would prefer to see his flip first.

Oh yeah, ##VOTE Maniac

@Yoyo ... let's get Maniac first. Jump on board.

Is there anyone that hasn't posted today?

sorry, back.

Bo, not the point. At the end of the day (eight minutes left), if you were a townie who thought it was MYLO, your one job should've been to get Jeff voters onto Espi. This is not something you did adequately. If anything, your catching Espi in a scumslip just corroborates my case.

@bo: I already said why I think Maniac is town and it has nothing to do with his read of me. Maniac always does weird things regardless of allegiance. Also, your comment explaining why you assumed Blood was town came after you were called on it, does it does not make my claim invalid. I am not saying you necessarily are scum, just that that post was very suspicious.

Also, I think my Espi case is pretty strong, how come you are ignoring it completely?

Hai guyz I is back.

Maniac (3): Espi, Vecna, bo_sox48
Vecna (1): Yoyoyozo,
bo_sox48 (1): DeathLlama8,
Espi (1): guak,

Not Voted: Maniac

##GM NOTE

I apologize for throwing a wrench into the game this late, but unfortunately we need to make a substitution. Maniac cannot finish the game and is being subbed out and replaced by Damian. Votes for Maniac will count towards Damian right now. Welcome to the game Damian.

Day 3 Vote Count #2

Damian (3): Espi, Vecna, bo_sox48
Vecna (1): Yoyoyozo
bo_sox48 (1): DeathLlama8
Espi (1): guak

Unvoted: Damian

Currently DAMIAN is set to be lynched! 21 hours 21 minutes remain.

Hi guys. I'm in the middle of a phone call. I will catch up and post soon

Actually if someone is on and wants to be helpful. I'd really appreciate the following information. 1.) Have we killed any scum yet. If so who. 2) Has there been a cop reveal?

I wasn't following the game at all, and I'm currently at page 19, but I might get more useful insights from my read if I know of those who died, what their alignments were. Thanks.

ND was lynched D1 and he was the cop, ghug was killed N1, Jeff was lynched D2 and wjessop was killed N2, we have killed no scum and we are in a mislynch situation right now with 4 town to 3 mafia.

"I agree. However, forcing a tie would have simply gotten me lynched next, which would be a loss as town if it were MYLO, so I would never do that as town. The only time I have forced a tie was when I was mafia and that wasn't in MYLO."
>>Still better than insta-kill? Also, sample size of one isn't great.

"I wasn't certain that Jeff was town. I acknowledged scummy things. I simply meta-read him as town because I watched him last game, after he replaced me, and compared that play to his play in this one and it was extremely similar. In the last game, he didn't have to defend himself against the actions of his predecessor, which is where most of his activity stemmed from. In terms of scumhunting (or lack thereof), posting fluff, and being useless in general, his play was like town Jeff. Mafia Jeff, who I was partners with, was smarter, more invested, and more aggressive."
>>A good point, but in MYLO you should've made a greater effort to push it onto Espi. You've openly acknowledged here that you thought Jeff was town.
"You are also hedging, DL, in your analysis. You conveniently ignore that I thought I caught Espi in a major scum slip. Turns out that I didn't, but that's not important. What is important is that I made that clear, pushed on him for it, and yet you completely ignored it and instead acted like I simply voted for him to avoid voting for Jeff."
>>This helps my case, not hurts it, so...thanks?

Espi, I realize you've responded to Wjessop's pg41 case, but I want you to refute it point by point. I don't think what you did could be called refuting Wjessop's points in any way.

1. Espi was first scum read by ND.
>Everyone knows this

2. Espi replied that he was honestly trying to "find the rest of the scum".
> Talked about this several times

3. Espi didn't explain his votes or make proper cases in Day 1, apart from a very hedgey reads list.
>I posted the page to my case, and why I was voting each time wjessop didn't really explain his votes or post a reads list either so once again, null point

4. Espi sheeped the ND vote last minute at EOD1.
>I believe I said I was thinking about it for a while. ghug and wjessop begged me to join them for most of the second half of D1.

5. After Night 1, Vecna knew Espi would be busy at a gaming event this weekend, even though Espi hadn't mentioned it in the forum. How did Vecna know if it wasn't sonething they mentioned in Mafia chat? Espi can't explain this.
>already explained this several times.

6. Espi is voting wjessop even though he reads Wjessop as town; saying that it's a good vote because wjessop makes the game difficult for Espi.
>I think Jeff or someone was voting for wjessop for a similar reason. wjessop was town and obviously was playing poorly. He was a main vote turned twice and both times went for town and then blamed the town for making him vote for them, need I say more?

7. If you ignore all of the above, remember most importantly that I caught Espi out on his "stupid" "dumb townie" character that he was trying to play in the game -- that is not the real Espi -- and Espi has since admitted that he was putting this act on. This alone is enough to understand that Espi from the outset has been playing duplicitously and in a way that is unhelpful to town. His posts were intentional waffle and wilfully ambiguous and unhelpful.
>I have already stated my reasons for doing this, I stopped as soon as I realized it wasn't helping us win the game.


That what you were looking for?

wjessop had no real points, his only good one was the last one, and yes that was incredibly stupid of me, but I acknowledge that fact.

Regarding the Wjessop NK - considering how much activity there's been today, it's fairly obvious that mafia hoped a Wjessop kill would stifle discussion, which it pretty much has.

Looks like it.

Any response to the response you requested of me?

Well bad news, don't type an analysis up on the forum and then click the wrong tab losing everything you typed :( Here I go again.

Well I'm not sure I'm going to have time for another re-read of the the entire thread in the next 24 hours. But I did manage to make it through the entire thread now.

Lets start with some facts.
1.) This has been a terrible game for the town. We lynched our only PR day 1, and have proceeded to lynch town since then. Coupled with the early loss of bloodwolf we have not had a good game.

2.) We are currently at 4 Town 3 Scum. Meaning for any given townie, (given that they know they are town) we have a 50% shot of guessing scum.

3.) Both days thus far we as a town have allowed a late swing to occur. In this game this has definitely not been in our favour, given that the vote has swung to townies, one of which was the cop.

4.) We have no real information about anyone's identities.

So, town, lets have ourselves a little talk. I have no idea what Maniac was trying to do this game, but I'd like to win. I think the best pieces of information we have right now are the EOD. I am highly suspicious of those who have been key driving factors in the late day shifts, which have taken townies from us. Particularly, I'm suspicious of Yoyo, who's comments along with Espi's pushing allowed Jeff to be lynched yesterday. He was also part of the late move to ND during the first day. Its not a lot of information. But it is at least concrete.

I am also very suspicious of the fact that we are now 2 for 2 in almost lynching Espi. Twice he has been saved and I have trouble believe this would have occurred if he were town. Someone mentioned (I think it was Maniac) that it would be exhausting and nearly impossible to maintain Espi's stream of consciousness posting style without scum slips, but we have had numerous scum slips from Espi. So the argument really doesn't hold water.

I'm really torn on Bo. In my once over of the thread I was relatively impressed by his contributions. But that also made me particularly impressed he was still alive. He would have been a good NK target for the scum, because his contributions have been solid. So why isn't he dead, and why has Espi been buddying him so hard? Seriously, anyone remember Espi's ranked read list with Bo 90% town and the next highest 50% town?

I hate to do this, but I actually think Guak is on to something.
Espi - Scum
Yoyo- Scum
One of Bo, DL or Vecna as the final scum

I haven't said much about DL or Vecna yet.
Vecna, I was pretty sure was scum. His early posting struck me as off in just that sort of way. I say was because his most recent long post didn't strike me the same way. Assuming we don't mislynch today, I think he's worth a re-read.
DL... I can't. I just can't. I think he's scum. But I was so wrong last game I don't trust my read on him.

All said I think my lynch preference would be Espi.
So that's where my vote is going.
##Vote Espi

Maniac and myself have been the ones saved from Lynch twice in a row.

That is untrue. While he was saved (like you) by the ND train day 1. Look at the vote counts from day 2 and Maniac was not only never leading, but he never had more than 2 votes, he was never in any serious danger to be saved from.