If she wins north Carolina by 6% and it's accurate I'll buy you a pizza. That is crazy. No way in earth it will be that high if she wins nc at all.

I have a question. Would it be possible for me to schedule a trip to London and then bet my life savings on a Trump win? Or is that impossible because I am a U.S. citizen? Thanks.

I put this together for everyones sakes using the polling numbers over the last 16 years in some of these states.

http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/wfae/files/styles/x_large/public/201211/2000%20NC%20Election_0.jpg?_ga=1.170576736.1705285839.1477104192

Bush defeated Gore in North Carolina by 600,000 votes. winning the state by 13 points.

In 2004 North Carolina began to slide a little more to being Blue and the margin of defeat for John Kerry was actually smaller than for Gore. But Bush still wins 56-43. So this wasnt really close.

2008 Is where the shocker happens. Obama wins by 14,000 votes. 49.7-49.4 A super close race for sure.

2012 Romney wins, 50-48, carrying 100,000 more votes than Obama.
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generally speaking your argument seems to be true. Democrats did poorly against "Traditional" Republicans, other than 2008, winning by a slim margin with Obama v McCain.

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Curent Polling numbers in key battlegrounds.
Clinton +4 in Florida
Clinton +12 in Virginia (that is pretty astounding)
Clinton +13 in Michigan

Clinton is up +2 in North Carolina by two different polls, but as youve said thats really close. I dont actually think Clinton will win north carolina.

Clinton is up +5 in Arizona! (+5???!?! What?)
Clinton up +7 in Wisconsin
Clinton up +24 in new York?

McMullin up +4 in Utah

Clinton up +5 in Colorado
Clinton up +7 in Nevada (Also shocking)

If those numbers dont change, thats checkmate.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Rvyem

I even made this map for you an Generously gave Trump Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, Utah.

And he still loses.

Trump would need Florida, and Wisconsin also, to even have a chance.

1) I think Trump will win North Carolina based on the trend set in 2012, the state itself, and the amount of money and time that the RNC has invested there. It's possible I am wrong though because 2008 was a shocker.

1a) I also think Trump will win in Ohio (he has had a consistent and positive set of polls there), a win in Iowa (again consistent and positive polls), and he has to win FL. He may win FL by sheer virtue of Marco Rubio's strong Senate campaign though.

2) Recent polling (including my undergraduate school CNU) has suggested a Clinton +12-+15 lead in VA. I actually called up local talk radio to discuss this the other day.
It's not going to be that big. here is why: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mark-warner-why-polls-missed-a-shocker-in-virginias-senate-race/

VA polling is usually extremely skewed because of Northern Virginia. It is highly likely that Clinton will win VA, but it won't be by 15 points. More like 1-5 points, but we will see.

Arizona is surprising. But, some recent polls out show anywhere between a Clinton +5, to a tie, to a Trump lead. It's all over the place. Reliable and respected polls have not be conducted there. If you look at 538 some of the polls are graded as C-.

Wisconsin, I can see a Clinton +7 if it is a blowout. If it is a close election it may be more like 2-3 Clinton. I don't think Trump wins Wisconsin.

New York, yeah. I am not surprised.

Utah, if you look at 548 you will see it's all over the place. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/
One poll has McMullin up by 4 and another has Trump up by 15. The trend is still Trump in Utah.

+5 Clinton in Colorado is similar to Obama tier levels from 2012. It wouldn't surprise me if that was the case.

Most recent poll from Nevada shows Clinton +4, but another shows Clinton +7. Remember, Obama won the state twice. However, long term polling has shown Trump leads in Nevada, so we will have to see if any of that returns.

@Brain: You forget close polling from CD#2 in Maine which has trended Trump all election cycle. I'll make a 270 win map and show you best and worst scenarios.

Your map didn't give Trump Utah though lol, but your map is a possibility.

Trump's best chance: http://www.270towin.com/maps/P8gD9

Trump utterly destroyed: http://www.270towin.com/maps/1AGvD

Florida:
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/fla-early-ballots-and-voter-registration-numbers-show-democrats-surging-in-fla-106392


In 2008 Florida was decided by +2 for Obama (4,282,367 4,046,219)
In 2012 Obama beat Romney by + .7 (4,237,756 to 4,163,447)
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You are talking about a small %, but 100,000 people is an entire small metropolitan area.





2004: Bush defeats Kerry.
3,964,522 to 3,583,544
Percentage 52.10% 47.09%



Typically the winner of the state of Florida wins by 100,000 votes or more. Well outside of the realm of realistically being able to call it "fraud"

@ND, be honest. the hispanic vote in Nevada is gonna be a really tough obstacle to overcome.

I've seen the FL reports. Not good, but Democrats traditionally vote early. We will see a high Republican turnout on election day.

What did you think of my best and worst case maps?

You are right about Nevada, but like I said Nevada has shown Trump leads. We will have to see if that returns or not.

You have Trump winning Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania has not gone Republican since 1988. In the defeats:

Clinton carried it +9
Gore carried it +4 (230,000 votes aka Not fraud)
Kerry carried it +3 (200,000 votes aka Not fraud)
Obama carried it +10 (3,276,363 - 2,655,885 aka zero chance of fraud)
Obama carried it +6 (300,000 votes aka Not fraud)

ND, this is probably a better bet.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/9e3Wd

but in all honesty. this is what I beleive will happen. http://www.270towin.com/maps/3nmb1

And I am nowhere near as harsh as some polls suggest, and some analysts beleive.

Yeah, maybe, although I do give Trump an edge because of his appeal to blue collar workers. We will see.

Your most recent map would be a Romney level defeat. Not terrible.

I think voter turnout will be alot lower than 08, 12 also

A low turnout election will favor Republicans automatically. You should be hoping for an 08 level election.

That wont happen. The reason the liberal media bashes trump so much is that the best thing were riding on is that people are scared of or hate trump. We dont have a "love" boost with Hillary like we did with Obama. People legit loved Obama. McCain wasnt even a bad candidate by the way, he was supposed to be a maverick and a war hero. His campaign fell apart because of Palin, and because he was facing a political genius level adversary.

Why don't you guys just wait until the 8th? None of this stuff is perfectly accurate and it could be way off.

Hillary is nowhere near as loved, and many people from both parties will stay home, not vote at all, or vote 3rd party on a principled stand hoping for a systemic change in the future. Overall however, I think more people Dislike Trump, than there are people who love Hillary.

well shit bo, finally we got ND talking lucid and sensible and you wanna squash a healthy for once discussion? lol

lol I am always lucid... and... most of the time sensible.

Im wondering if this cyber attack today will remind ppl that wikileaks operatives are not our friends

ND is easily right about low turnout favoring Republicans. His support base is very enthusiastic, and I expect an extremely large portion of them to get to the polls. Clinton's base doesn't share that enthusiasm, so if there are people who don't go to the polls, it's the reluctant Dems and independents who would otherwise vote for Clinton and are disillusioned by the election. THAT is Trump's best shot.