So, consider the following:

The Mafia and the Killer are *going* to kill tonight.

If we do nothing, we're just going to lose numbers and be in even worse shape tomorrow.

If we lynch someone, maybe we'll get a Mafia/Killer, which would be great. If we don't, though, we *increase* the chance of the Mafia/Killer accidentally killing each other, which is also good.

Mathematically, we are compelled to lynch someone today.

On a side note, perhaps the doctor should protect Thucydides?

With a squeeze of hot rubber on pavement, and a scattering of road debris torn loose from the pavement after the excessively harsh global warming winter, the maroon Mitsubishi Spyder slides to halt in front of the babbling crowd of possible multi's.

A door creaks open, followed by a low grumble to the effect of, "...gonna grease that bitch someday..." and with a subsequent creak and a slam, the door closes.

A nod of the head to the collected stunned crowd, and the flick of a finger send a half-chewed tooth-pick flying straight at Thucy's face.

"I appreciate your kind word, Thuc...you know, about not wishin' death upon me unnecessarily. It seems a noble gesture...seems, at any rate..."

Pulling an e-cig from my inner pocket, I lean against the hitching post that conveniently materializes behind me even as I lean into seemingly nothing, and after a hazy cloud of vapor dissipates over my head, I make my suggestion.

I say we vote. It seems the present mind is to wait until the ranks are thinned, perhaps in some sort of ploy to increase the odd that a lynchin' hits home. I say we vote, like a man, take a shot an pray it hits home - if you're the religious type, that is - and if you aren't, then call is Darwin if the wrong man dies, and so be it.

Thank you Abge.

"Can I get some quick clarification? When morning comes, do we know who was killed by whom (mafia, killer, etc)? Or do we just wake up to a heap of dead bodies?"

Wake up to a heap of banhammered scrubs

"Based Eden, when do we find out what the serial killer chose?"

End of the 1st day to avoid people gaming the announcement time to find the serial killer.

"I suppose I'm not allowed to make recommendations because you pricks aren't letting me play, is that right?"

ya sorry dawg would have been awesome to get another dude in the game

PM me and I'll give you the observation QT if you want to chat about the game but I can't let non-players make in-game recommendations, srry

The boy Abge (nods head) knows what's he's talking about.

Frankly, I'm suspcious of any man that suggests we sit idle while a murderer is on the loose.

"Collateral damage!" they scream <spits in the dust>

I'll tell you what collateral damage is: It's sittin' idle while good men die, and their protectors sit on their hands.

We vote a man out, if we know what's good for us. And in choosin' a man, we vote for those that seem to be obstructing our safest course of action, if we are wise.

You're right that's a contradiction, before, I thought it was a crapshoot, but after Fasces' post I realized that the mafia does have a good incentive, as well as method, to get an extra kill this phase. They have their own thread, right? Seems like they could be talking about it.

"I damn well want to exercise my rights before the mafia kills me."

Lmao seriously Warden? I'm going to assume this is a joke.

And yeah, it goes both ways, lol, but I know that I'm not mafia. That's the problem, here. We are just talking, and no one can point to anything, not even circumstantial, to back anything up.

Can anyone respond to the fact that, chances are, we are going to kill a townie if we lynch? I haven't been convinced that there is any good reason negating that fact...

And what's the information, Jok3r? I'm not following. What information is there in the lynch vote roster, after the fact?

I'm not blatantly ignoring anybody, or at least not trying to - I'm trying to keep as many townies alive as possible. That's just as much a goal as killing off mafia people.

Also, the accusation Vashta just made is a perfect example of why lynching on the first day is stupid. Let's say you lynch me. Congratulations, you lost an active townie. Lol. That's what's going to happen if we lynch, pretty much 3/4 times.

I'd like to know, let's say we do lynch - how the hell are we going to decide? We may as well roll dice.

In that case it seems krellin, Thucy may be the current man who should be killed, however, I suggest we let him live, to gain information, based upon the night. Also, Mr.President/PE, do we find out who the doctor saved after the night is done, if at all?

I am honestly trying to understand y'all's logic, but failing.

3/4 chance we thin our ranks unnecessarily, here. What is the incentive to kill 0.75 townies for no reason?

Whereas, tomorrow, we will A) have some information about who got murdered, saved, etc., the cop will have some information, AND there will be a better chance of hitting a mafia when we do lynch, probably something like 33% up from abut 25%.

Right? What am I missing?

So Thucy, when, exactly, do you decide you want to vote? After 3....6...9 townies are already dead? When the only ones left can't kill the mafia before they are dead?

Your passifict ways are the surest route to the town destruction.

I almost want to say lynch me just to prove my point, since I'm not mafia, but since we are bound to play to win... don't fucking do that.

The mafia is probably going to try to kill me tonight though, since they know I'm not them and I'm a loudmouth. So, I really would appreciate a save if I don't get lynched, doctor.

"Your passifict ways are the surest route to the town destruction."

Oh come on krellin leave it to the other threads. I'm not going to get into it with you and ruin this game for everyone.

I think that taking a shot in the dark on the first day is a riskier move. Sure, if we get lucky (5/18 chance) we put ourselves in a better situation, but the more likely scenario (13/18 chance) we are only worse off.

There is some information to be gained in the first day though, just by talking and seeing what sort of information people offer/claim. Some people have bad poker "faces", tell inconsistent stories, etc. and may just paint themselves sketchy.

Thus, I'm strongly in favor of "no one" on the first day, unless the thread reveals significantly more as the day progresses.

I'm a regular townsfolk. No special role.

Thucy, what will we have learned tomorrow? Two people will be dead and we'll know nothing more than we did now.

krellin swngs around the hitchin' post like a poll dancer after a fiver and steps onto the wooden deck that appears in front of each foot step.

He reaches into his pocket and produces a shiny golden coin, which he flips into the air.

The crowd is mesmerized as the coin, glinting in the sun, flies through a high arc and then slips itself perfectly into the slot machine that has manifested itself, it's pull lever already in krellin's hand.

With a slow deliberate motion, krellin pulls the lever, and the wheels spin to the jingle jangle of the gamblin' machine hypnotic tune.

The first wheel clunks to a stop, followed closely by the second, and the crowd watches in awe, waiting to see if a triple will manifest itself on the first spin.

"Winners, winners everywhere...." says the gambling man.

We vote because we might get lucky, and I'm feelin' lucky today.

Here's my stance on lynching somebody and the information gained. Let's say 2WL is lynched today. There is information to be gained from those who were willing to vote for him and those who were not. Somebody making a strong defense can be an indication of somebody with more information than others. In this particular instance, that would indicate a mafia. Whereas, somebody with a lot of doubt figures to look more town.

And of course, everybody can post in a way to manipulate it to their advantage, but you don't gain any information if you don't try. What you're suggesting in my opinion(no lynch) provides no information going forward. Whereas a lynch does at the cost of possibly losing a townie while taking the opportunity to off a mafia member. Which we get limited attempts at.

Also, who hasn't posted in this thread yet? Can everyone please at least make an opening statement? Ideally, please state your opinion on the issue of the first day's vote and whether or not we should even lynch.

<Out of Game> Thucy, I am not doing anything BUT playing the game. You are calling for pacisfism, for no good reason other than to watch townies die. If you can't handle role playing, then I suggest you request someone replace you </Out of Game>

Even after the night each person will only have one piece of reliable information: if they were targeted by a roleblock, saved, or killed. It will only be by combining that information in a completely unreliable way the next day that we can even hope to kill a mafia member, and our chances are even worse each passing day.

I don't know exactly what we will know, but it could be telling. Like, for example, if I do actually get killed tonight, and no one saves me, the people who were arguing to lynch me suddenly become suspicious. For example.

I'm not trying to be rude but have you played Mafia before? The main way to start to put together who is Mafia is by watching who is getting killed, and what the victims were saying before they died.

"Also, Mr.President/PE, do we find out who the doctor saved after the night is done, if at all?"

The doctor and his target will be notified that the save was successful (if it was indeed successful). The rest of the town will not be notified.

Well, Thucy, currently i am working on an algorithm on who to eliminate, and while i have not reached a conclusion, I do not think it should be you, because you are likely to be targeted by the mafia (which may result in them not killing you to cast suspicion upon you). By putting you out there we are throwing a wrench into the mafia's plans (probably) as they are forced to decide whether or not they should get you out, rather than having you eliminated early and giving them free reign to kill whoever they want. However, calling on the help of the doctor may not be a smart move, as if the doctor is likely to save you, the mafia will probably cast their vote elsewhere, wasting his power.

The only thing we gain by not voting the first day is the assurance of three dead bodies. I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how many dead men should be laying at your feet before you take a shot in the dark.

Pray tell, what new information will you learn by tomorrow - other than the three that are dead - that will give you a more informed decision then? I have yet to hear a good argument as to why waiting is somehow superior.

@yebellz - they have 48 hours here, don't get impatient lol. the game has only been running 2 hours.

"Somebody making a strong defense can be an indication of somebody with more information than others. In this particular instance, that would indicate a mafia. Whereas, somebody with a lot of doubt figures to look more town. "

I don't really understand this. What do you mean "make a strong defense?" Of course anyone on the chopping block is going to speak up for themselves - they themselves have no doubt of their own role. I'm still not really sure how we can get information THIS TURN, I of course, as per my post just above this one, understand how our words today will help us gain a LOT of information when paired with who got killed in the night.

Why do people think the mafia would target Thucy? He clearly doesn't want to kill anyone, so he's not a threat.

Vashta - sinc Thucy seems to be the biggest advocate in favor of not pursuing the mafia, I'm not certain why you think they would not target him. He's currently their biggest ally.

I would recommend that the doctor simply protect at random tonight. I would be wary of someone explicitly asking for his help at this stage of the game.

The doctor can't save someone from being lynched, right?

"The doctor can't save someone from being lynched, right?"

unsure if this was a specific GM question BUT: yes, the doctor's saves are only from nightkills, not from a lynch

Abge -- you seem to be in favor of casting a vote, throwing the dice...got anyone in mind yet? Do you have a principle you would apply in making a choice? Gut feeling? Or a roll of the lucky 18 sided die?

How 'bout this abge -- I'll bet you have 20 sided die at home....wanna roll it and name a body? Whatdya say old pal?