The letter 'g' is doing poorly in this game.

Here are my peanuts to throw in:

1) Austria: Why why why why wouldn't you cover Trieste if you are clearly doing an A/R???

2) A/Rs are so last year, guyz.

3) Vecna: I tried that press approach with Valis once. It didn't work.

Slightly delayed commentary by work. Here I am for Autumn phase though:

England - Well, it wasn't catastrophic but it wasn't good. Clearly out-pressed by Germany, as he convinced you not to bounce Denmark and that he would let you into Belgium. How you believed the latter I do not know - when Germany opens to Holland; Belgium is the goal. Always. To somehow be hoodwinked over the German intentions on Belgium is quite incredible. To block him out you'd have needed French aid. I can give you the benefit of the doubt in that you believed you had it, but if you were going to bounce Germany... why not just do it in Denmark and play for an ER? Guaranteed bounce with a better chance of building on it next year. Now, it looks like there's an FG lining up with a gigantic Russia who could very easily join in with it. Moving forward; you have to get one of France or Russia on side here - Russia is definitely possible as they may not want to grow too fast after such a great start; to avoid painting themselves a target on their backs. But an ER where England controls Norway instead of Denmark is always quite shaky. An EF to respond to mega-Germany is always an option; but a GR could probably outmuscle it with the respective starts of Germany & Russia. Certainly against you. Tying yourself to Germany as a junior partner and hoping for an opportunity to come along to turn it around is an option, but that 1901 doesn't look promising there. 100 lines of "When Germany opens to Holland, Germany is going for Belgium".

France - How very average. Good relations with Italy are a positive; and an England who is likely to be very desperate for your help isn't bad either. You sent out a strong pro-German signal with your support there, and an FG seems the logical step to take here, but using England as a tool and working with Russia is also very much on the table. Of the people in the game, you're definitely one of those with the most options - but letting Germany grow unchecked could change that fast if Italy finishes the East quickly. No cookies or detention for you!

Germany - Excellent, excellent. You convinced England not to bounce Denmark; which was the key this phase. Adding some Anglo-Franco discontent over the way Belgium worked out is just an extra boon. Plenty options with the builds to go strongly against England or take your time and invade France, or even go East or South if you're feeling especially ballsy (might even be brave enough to try the HR-Germany strategy - I do love to see a German invasion of Austria!). How to proceed in relations with Russia is the big question right now - both of you had fantastic starts; so the trouble will be whether you use that to fight each other for supremacy or work together to take the board by the horns. Looking forward to see how you can build on this start. A great big cookie for you!

Italy - Very solid. Strongly outpressed Austria by convincing him to leave Trieste open... despite the obviously arranged bounce in Piedmont. How you pulled that; I don't know. Then again, looking at ghug's moves... maybe it's not such a surprise. Going for Apu -> Ven is interesting and seems rather inferior to me though. Unless you're planning a surprising swing West, abandoning the Ionian Sea to put an army in Venice that you could have just built there this turn anyway definitely seems pretty poor. I suppose the builds shall tell us a lot there; but an Italy fighting on two fronts here instead of taking the Wintergreen opportunity and ramming your juicy armies further into Austria's rear would not be what most people did, for sure! Of course, there is the possibility that you're playing for an IT where you're the boss due to Turkey's awful start - certainly possible after that start, and it might stop Russia growing so fast. Leaving the Ionian means that couldn't come into effect until Autumn, but given the desperate plight that Turkey have put themselves in, it means you do have a few options here. Have a cookie for the way you made Austria look so dumb, anyway!

Austria - When I criticised uclabb for moving Vie - Bud, he made me look rather silly the next phase in the first Peanuts game. So I thank you, ghug. I thank you for restoring normality and showing that that opening does indeed suck when you don't have an immense amount of press skill to override the general suck that is Bud - Vie. I shall treasure your mediocrity for aeons. So onto your actual moves... what the fuck are you doing? You DMZ Galicia in Spring and build for good relations with Russia... and then promptly attempt to stab him by going to Rumania. If you'd just moved to Galicia so he had to worry about Warsaw and possibly head there, you'd have had a far better chance of taking Rumania. DMZ'ing Galicia is not a great way to get Turkey to trust you. Going for Rumania was an atrocious decision - even supporting Turkey there would've been dubious, but better than moving for it. And that's not even getting into how you somehow thought Italy arranging a bounce in Piedmont in S01 wasn't signalling that he was about to gut you by taking Trieste in Autumn... I've not seen someone get bent over and smacked around so much since the last time I made a spelling error whilst googling the policies of ANEL in Greek politics. 250 lines of "I am not good enough to copy uclabb".

Russia - Wow. What a start. For all of the general horror that was Austria & Turkey there, you've taken full advantage of every opportunity and carved yourself a superb position here. Convincing Turkey you weren't screwing him over despite the Galicia DMZ is highly impressive, and convincing Austria to be a dipshit... probably wasn't so difficult. Whether or not you had a hand in getting England & Germany to start squabbling I don't know; but either way it's fantastic for you. An EF would be the biggest threat to you here, and shutting it down before it begins should thus be your top priority. Three builds gives you the luxury to work with whoever you choose in the West - England (if you want to be patient), Germany (if you want to be greedy), or temporarily with England until you can stab him and go long-haul with France. Turkey having no builds and being so gapingly open with Austria only having 1 build too is pretty hilarious, and the foundations to work an extremely powerful Wintergreen are right there. Very nice work. A massive cookie and a fine glass of Ouzo for you, good sir.

Turkey - Well goldie, if ghug has one saving grace in this game right now... it's that at least it could be worse. He could be you. That was brutal. I can understand not supporting Austria to Rumania (after all, you were likely to lose a home SC, so if you were fighting Russia you had to gain an actual build from somewhere), but you should've been demanding his support, or trying to get yourself a backup plan with an IT. The Galicia DMZ from Russia was such a strong signal that Sevastopol was being covered and yet you walked into the trap and got 500 tons of custard pie slammed into your face at the speed of sound. The fact that Italy piled into Austria as well isn't good for you at all though - him not being in the Ionian means you can't easily IT until Autumn next year; and Austria having less builds leaves you even more alone against Russia. I think that's probably the most brutal smackdown I've seen a Turkey given in 1901 for a very long time.. .and it doesn't put you in a brilliant chance of salvation. xorxes has sprinted off and left you eating his dust. 250 lines of "I must have backups in case for when my crazy strategies inevitably go tits up".

Entertaining start. First blood has been drawn, the crowds are roaring. Let's see if we'll have any 1902 eliminations, shall we?

While the game starts heating up I'll take this opportunity to go for a high level analysis and strategic thoughts.

I've always been a "play the players" kinda guy, so lets kick this off by taking an intro look at our participants and see how they stack up.

Socrates Dissatisfied: This guys got the best win record of everybody with a 24% solo stat, 55% draw, adding up him in the winner circle of 79% of his games. Looking at his history he's managed to hang and do well with some pretty credible players without getting eliminated including a few of our top 10. Last time he showed up on the Ghost Ratings he was sitting at #10 so this guys definitely the real deal. I think we're seeing that skill come out in the first year of the game as you can see signs of a true diplomat at play with his (likely) negotiated bounce with Italy and forged relationship with Germany.

xorxes: From a stat perspective xorxes looks to be the next most impressive with a 23% solo rate and 55% draws putting him just behind SD with his combined 70% win rate. Xorxes seems to favour gunboat games, so perhaps that puts him at a disadvantage being out of his element? Not necessarily, of his previous full press games he's soloed almost every one. Xorxes falls at 29 in the most recent GR. This could easily be a dark horse! Doesn't hurt not to be that well known in full press games as well and being a gunboat master tends to imply a strong mind for tactics. We're seeing some hints of that tactician skill in his early moves with a super impressive 3 build year, although that may start to crumble quickly as he may be burning bridges with both neighbours so the lack of diplomacy experience might catch up with him.

goldfinger0303: Goldie's been around the longest, having joined the site back in 2010, and has a respectable stat of 10% solo, 50% draw, making a 60% win rate and ranked 46. He's well rounded with a good share of gunboat vs press games and has a tonne of experience in high profile games. Goldie's pretty much crossed paths with anybody who's anybody at some point, however with mixed results. Still, that type of experience is bound to have some effect so perhaps it could give him an edge in navigating a game of this caliber. First year took a bad turn with a high gamble trust in his alliance gone bad. This will be especially difficult to recover from, but with a probably friendless Russia there's decent potential for some alliance opportunities that weren't previously on the table.

Ghug: Another 50% win rate, split between 8% wins and 42% draws and ranked 36. Tough break drawing Austria in this one followed by further bad luck of an opportunistic Italy and Russia. Also difficult to recover from, but at least managing to get a build and Turkey seemingly getting stabbed could give him a chance. An opportunistic France could also cause a lot of problems for Italy which also may turn the tides further in his favour.

TooCoolSunday: Most definitely a dark horse in the game as majority of his success was found on another site. It certainly shouldn't be overlooked that he's undefeated at WebDip to date and has managed to make it to the finals of the ODC Tournament. It's a huge advantage for a strong player to not have limited history readily accessible. It also makes him the belle of the ball, the fresh face other players are draw to in order to get to know. He's had a profitable first year, but his success moving forward will depend a lot on his ability to forge relationships. If he can get Russia on his side and keep France and Germany out of his business things could go well.

Valis: Here we get the experience player with over 384 games under his belt, more then twice as many games as the next most experienced player. It can be hard to trick a player who's seen everything so really takes some serious outside the box thinking to surprise a player like this. He's holding the lowest stats of our group with 7% solo / 39% draw totaling 46% won games. nevertheless, he is the only player in the game with the distinction of having played all six other players before so the familiarity could give him an edge. Valis last sat at 39 in the GR. Great start with positive relationships with both Russia and France and good options moving forward.

Vesca: Newest player to the site at less then 1 year in but has made up for a lot of lost time with 108 games finished, decent amount of those being gunboat and live games. He's sitting with a 7% solo and 54% draw totalling 61% win rate and ranked at 149 on our last GR (not bad for first year). His first year finds him odd man out in the west so he's going to have to really work his diplomatic muscle if he wants to turn things around.

When you can describe Valis as the "most experienced", you know something is wrong.

Poor Vecna doesn't even get his name spelt correctly; he's such a newcomer. :P

Sorry, was running late for something so had to rush a little bit at the end. ;)

Yeah, how come you're not playing in this one, ATC? Did the last one not go well? :P

I was very happy with the outcome of the last one :)

You and I both

I was too slow so my comments are after the builds, but what I was going to say was:

I love this open as France- promise Germany Belgium in return for him going fleet to Holland and building two fleets. I basically soloed as France in webdip f2f doing this, and it's so wonderful because E/F are now fighting *forever*. You were wrong wrong wrong Big Peanut. The cookies should have been for F, not G. Unfortunately, Italian builds change that...

I don't feel like Austria should be blamed for Italy stabbing there. It's a weird stab, especially with the Apulia to Venice move. It's basically deciding Russia gets to be crazy strong and turning I/A into a fair fight for survival and playing for being in like a 4 way draw. That's not how to play 1901. (and if I actually wanted to do that convoying to Tunis was better) And this is reflected in builds. Not sure if the agreement was before or after Trieste changed hands, but it now looks like the I/A is on with I having a bunch of fleets and A going a bunch of armies.

Not surprised in the sligthest by the stab or some of the other first year moves.

Here's the thing about these Peanut Gallery games, there's always a few players that love to play for the audience. There's almost always one or two unconventional opening moves just for sake of seeing how the shock value gets people talking or the desire to show off how much of an out-of-the-box thinker a player can be. The low stakes buy in of it makes it all the more appealing to play (to an extent) for the showmanship of it. Sometimes it works out and sometimes you end up like Italy in the last one where you go way out of the box the first year and spend rest of the game in survival mode.

It's simply no fun being the "See, I told you that's what he was going to do!" guy year-after-year. This game is probably going to break the mould of conventional play more then a few times, often even when it's blatantly not the wisest thing to do. Some players are more prone to this type of thing so wise to figure out who these people are and factor that in when tying to predict their actions. I for one would have never left Trieste open after that slick Pied bounce under a presumption of it being logically impractical.

"So many boats" lol. The only build that wasn't a fleet that had the option of being a fleet was StP. Hilarious. :-)

Trieste... Well, interesting. I dunno, I was going to suggest that maybe it was a temporary intentional A/I alliance play to hand it over then hand it back, but S1902M Italy makes no sense if that's the case. That is a *lot* of wasted Italian tempo, right there.

Turkey, global chat in S1902:

"Spring, 1902: So, for those wondering (and those in the peanut gallery)

Austria was supposed to tap Bul and take Rum with support. Preferably with moving to Gal, though I understood if he didn't.

Austria did neither of those things. And now I plan on walking out of my SC's.

Because Austria is an idiot."

This proves that Turkey is an idiot. He's asking Austria to do 4 things with 2 units????

Vienna could have moved to Gal. Presumably Turkey was implying he understood it was hard to move to Gal and take Trieste back.

"This proves that Turkey is an idiot. He's asking Austria to do 4 things with 2 units????"

I believe what is being said here is that Turkey wanted Austria to tap Bulgaria to reassure Austria he wasn't trying to take Greece with support and because he was planning on vacating Bulgaria to retake Const. This meant that if Austria took Rum with support he would have forced a disband had Austria also hit Galicia with Vienna.

Now clearly that didn't happen, but was it an unreasonable plan, I don't really think so.

The reason is fairly simple too, if you think about this from Austria's standpoint then you have to be very concerned about Russia, regardless of any agreement you have with him. He's in an awesome position with great positioning on Turkey having already cracked the 3 center shell that is normally so hard to break.

With Russia's strong positioning and a very likely southern build he was going to be in a dominate position to swiftly eliminate Turkey. With 5 units in the south Russia is a juggernaut in his own right, forget needing Turkey to complete it. Austria passed on an opportunity to force a disband of a Russian unit and more importantly, passed on a chance to use Turkey as a buffer against Russia which would have given him the time he needed to retake Trieste.

So just my take, but I don't find Turkey's actions to be idiotic that turn. I find them pretty reasonable with a decently thought out plan that should have seemed reasonable to Austria.

Never mind me, I thought it was said before Spring moves came in.

The T/A proposed move obviously would be pretty effective, but Austria has to be pretty sure that Italy is backing off for that to be worth it. Turkey is in trouble, but Austria is fine here. It's pretty understandable to make sure Italy couldn't put the knife in this turn. Obviously this should be accompanied by some diplomacy to keep Turkey from rage quitting.

That was one thing I tried to keep in mind when I played Peanut Gallery. This is a high profile game where players can broadcast their "style" to the world. So reactions to stabbing/willingness to be a good ally may be heightened.

I only agree to a point Uclabb, I think in that situation Italy pulling out wasn't a huge surprise. He and Austria both knew that Austria had to defend, so Italy would reasonably not be wasting his moves. It was more likely that he'd spend the time positioning himself, which is what ended up happening. With the threat of Russia looming Italy couldn't really have kept attacking and risked Russia sliding into AU as well at T. So while I do agree with you there would have been some risk on AU's part to take the T deal, I think it would have been the right call.

And I think we can both agree that it doesn't seem like diplomacy to avoid raging happened successfully.

So, for spring...

England - Well, that was about as well as can be expected. The abandoning of Norway does look like you attempted to make a deal with Russia, though sadly he moved in with Sweden rather than STP so he can't support you into Denmark now. Which it appears you had been counting on, going by the convoy. I think that was a mistake on Russia's part, and you did the best you could after those French builds. On the other hand, that's another press failure in not convincing Russia your strategy was the right one, so it's hard to be too sympathetic. Italy backing out of attacking France is just insult to injury here. Not looking good for you. 50 lines of "I must learn to actually be convincing", I think.

France - Two fleet builds, combined with Italy's builds, had looked very much like you were both squaring off for a Med war. The fact neither of you has actually committed to it is a positive for you, as the extra fleet going north puts you in a dominant position against England now. Options to force the Channel or swing up to NAO and threaten Liverpool or Edinburgh whilst forcing the Channel next turn... all very nicely played. Good work convincing Italy that fighting was pointless! Where England has failed in press, it's quite clear you've succeeded in every way possible. A big cookie for you!

Germany - Very aggressive builds going anti-England and anti-Russia. The risk has paid off in Russia's failure to work with England, though, so things remain very nicely on track here. Russia abandoning Sweden entirely and wrecking England's hopes of taking Denmark is excellent for you. Other moves are all solid enough; except for Mun - Kie. What *is* the point of that move? There was a strong chance of England taking Denmark with Russian support given you weren't support holding it, so cutting the retreat off was a rather silly idea. And where's it going to go now? A possible convoy to England next year? Oh, wait, you're capturing Sweden so you could've built that anyway. By moving Mun - Kie instead of Mun - Sil, you've declared war on Russia without giving him any serious problems whatsoever. In Silesia you'd be forcing him to cover Warsaw and drop a gear in his devastating Southern invasion. I think that was a tactical error, and it means that your cookie is far smaller than it would've otherwise been. In fact, I ate half of it. You can have my leftovers though. Better luck next time!

Italy - What the hell was the point of any of that? Great 1901, putting you in a very nice position. Build two fleets - which was strongly telegraphed when you went Apu -> Ven anyway. And now you U-turn again... not using that fleet, and withdrawing from Austria. In effect, you just reversed everything you achieved last year. Ruling out a Wintergreen whilst an AR was still on the table was a very poor decision, and you've overnight transformed yourself from junior partner to a Russia who would likely get panic-attacked by a lot of people to keep him in check; to junior partner to an Austria who isn't under threat from just about anyone. And for what? The way it's going, Russia could well beat you to the entirety of Turkey here. All this screams is a lack of self-confidence in your ability to keep Russia in check whilst working with him, so you took the easy option and are playing safe already. Disappointing. 200 lines of "Playing it safe doesn't win you games"

Austria - Well, that's made you frontrunner for 'Rescue of the Game' award for the moment. Turkey might be upset, but you've outmanoeuvred Italy and removed the threat on *that* flank... whilst maintaining the Galicia DMZ and indeed an empty Rumania to not worry about this turn. Short term gains are big. Will they stave off the long term pain of Russia? We'll see. It would've been nice for you if Germany had moved to Silesia and kept Russia worried about Warsaw. Growth prospects remain pretty slim unless you do a very sneaky switch with Russia though - him attacking Constantinople from Bulgaria, with you sliding into Bulgaria behind after cutting the Aegean Sea support hold. And that's blockable by Turkey if he gambles and attacks Bulgaria instead. Still, compared to 1901, it's not so bad. One big threat is better than two big threats, at the end of the day. A cookie for you.

Russia - A tale of two fronts. The southern invasion remains on course in devastating fashion - Bulgaria & Ankara paying for Constantinople; and the possibility of combining with Austria to crush Turkey into 1 SC by the end of 1902. Quite the achievement. Germany not moving to Silesia so you don't have a unit tied up defending is just another boost on top; and means you have plenty options for invading Germany or Austria in the next phase of your game. Excellent stuff. And yet... the North. Taking Norway and not working with England was very short-sighted. Conceding Sweden so lightly isn't going to buy you peace with Germany in the long-run either way, and by dooming England, you're just helping put Germany in a position to attack you in full force far sooner. An ER there could have held Germany very nicely in check - sure, France would still grow against England, but that isn't bad for you at all; and you could play for the very nice long term FR. Italy abandoning the invasion of Austria is another negative, as Austria isn't totally reliant on your now, either. So lots of positives,- but a few negatives too. Gotta make sure your advantages aren't chipped away at here - cockiness doesn't get you anywhere, unless you're as awesome as Me. The continuing obliteration of Turkey is probably worth another cookie, anyway.

Turkey - Yikes. It's hard to criticise you when you actually put in smart moves (this time), and yet it's just got even worse. Italy backing out of Austria is not good for you at all, as it puts Austria in a position where he isn't anywhere near as desperate. And Austria siding with Russia... is quite possibly a death blow. Your strategy for hitting Russia was certainly a good idea, but you didn't convince Austria, and I don't believe it was entirely idiotic of him not to do after your respective 1901's. Especially if he can fall back on an IA where he's the senior partner. One sidenote though - you're currently on track to get eliminated as Turkey even faster than Chumbles managed to in the first Peanuts game! That's... quite an achievement. A bit like England, 50 lines of "I must be more persuasive... if I even get the chance to do so"

What the fuck? Why would Englamd support Norway to Sweden and help Russia keep it?
Russia now at 10 SCs in 1903. And the board shows no signs of cooperation. This is Russia's wet dream come true.

I don't think Russia can do a whole lot better than he is right now. That's not a compliment to Russia, that's a "what in the world?!" to the rest of his neighbors.

Whoa... No idea what Italy's doing. Playing for a Lepanto when Turkey's already dead? Pretty useless. It's quite disappointing after his better than normal opening for Italy.
Awesome play by Russia. 10 centres by 02 is crazy good. Hopefully he can keep some friends. It would be cool to see E/R continue off together. It's England's best shot right now anyways.

I'll take the analysis this turn HR. You can take a break.

Russia gets all the cookies. The End.

Am I watching the same game? Italy and Austria have allied against Russia in the south, and the Franco-German block pose a strong anti-Russian force in the north. Russia looks to be able to count on English support, but that's about it. There are very difficult times ahead.

Turkey is in a fascinating position. A single unit, but it holds an awesome amount of influence over the next year or so.

My pick of the nations as it stands is France, by a country mile, followed at some distance by Italy. Dangerous and headache inducing times ahead for everyone else, with the possible exception of Turkey who can have a great deal of fun.

France is irrelevant to Russia right now.
Germany has zero chance of breaking Russia unless England helps. But given that England has not only not helped Germany, he has actually helped Russia with the critical support move, G/F might just decide to remove England first. But that buys time for Russia to build his northern fleets.

This is so sad, a civil disorder Turkey would have done better than saltfinger.

Shit happens, as they say. Luck plays a huge part in any game of diplomacy.

Slightly late Autumn commentary:

England - Haha. Well, I found your moves amusing anyway. I'm not sure rewarding Russia for screwing you in Spring was the best of moves, but it was certainly the funniest - and keeping Russia gigantic and a big solo threat can distract Germany and France from finishing you off here, which is also not bad. It was worth a try with cutting Denmark, though never likely to succeed. Still, the best you could really do there. Germany is the weak-link in the F/G now, and keeping it that way could force him to turn to you for aid later, so that's the best that could be hoped for there really. You can have a small cookie just for making me laugh.

France - Not a lot to say there really. You took the Channel - congratulations. And that was that. The bounce in Sweden was good for you as it means that moving forward, you're likely to be the senior partner in the F/G; especially as the English lands are very open to you and yet remain firmly shut to Germany; making the map ripe for switching to an F/R as soon as you've dispatched with England. Italy's crumbling is just another boost there - all very solid. And that, well, is that. Given the obviousness of your moves I can't give you any cookies; but no lines either. Now - don't fuck it up!

Germany - Welp. That block on Sweden was very damaging, and just further proof that you really should've moved to Silesia if you wanted to fight Russia. Going half-hearted has left you nowhere and with no ability to threaten Warsaw this year either. Sweden is gone; Russia has an army in Finland AND a fleet in STP (SC) now too. And with England remainingly resolutely defended... against you... you're rather trapped here. Conservative moves, poor result. There is very little to stop you being invaded by either of France or Austria in the very near future, and there's not even a particularly plausible way to get a belated E/G going here. No builds, no momentum - pretty much the exact opposite of what a 3 build 1901 Germany should've followed up with. You bit off more than you could chew by the looks of it. 100 lines of "If I'm going to attack someone, I must not do it so half-assed"

Italy - Well, you continue to surprise me. The very belated Lepanto is highly likely to fuck you over, but it's the only thing you have going for you here... except the Tyrrhenian fleet. Maybe if you're lucky you could use that to steal a centre from France. Probably not though. Beyond that - where are the gains here? Smyrna will be a bounce at best unless you persuade Turkey to throw it to you to fuck over Russia, and after that? As the Talking Heads once said - you're on the road to nowhere. Disbanding Venice is just screaming to Austria "INVADE ME!", too, which isn't much better. After such a good 1901, I'm very disappointed. But as you committed to those moves back in Spring and have already served your lines for them then; I don't see any need to add more. Now let's see you if you can prove me wrong about this strategy sucking.

Austria - Well. You've sold your soul, but you're in the game and actually not in that bad a position. I don't buy the A/R being collapsed, and yet those fake stabs have seemingly helped persuade Italy to disband one of his armies and left you with two invasion routes for this year. Either you storm Venice, or you storm Munich. Neither is likely to be stoppable (Germany would collapse if he withdrew to defend Munich now), so you should get yourself another build for sure. Whether you can keep a check on Russia is another matter - but with Italy as your bitch and Germany as a punching bag, you've got to simultaneously keep Russia checked whilst keeping him friendly. It'll be impressive if you pull it off. I like the arranged bounces - whether it was your or Russia's idea - I'm just going to assume they were arranged because if they were legit then you suck. Sure, the Greek support seems to imply otherwise, but if Russia pledged to support Turkey to Greece (which is the only explanation of the Turkish move) they're just as plausible. And the Russian builds definitely put an AR back on the table. So you have your pick of allies. I'd pick Russia and try to ride the wave of the devil, but you have the option of trying to go through with that Lepanto too. Much better stuff. Have a cookie.

Russia - Wonderful, wonderful. Turkey dismantled, Austria at your mercy and yet not - and the North secured by persuading England to fuck Germany. I'm not too sure how you managed that after you fucked England in Spring, but kudos to you nonetheless. Given the inefficiency of the stabs by you and Austria, I don't see them as being alliance-ending at all and it's very likely that they were arranged anyway. The lack of A-War means an AR is right on the table either way though. Which is handy for you. A-Sev was obvious; as it lets you go to Armenia to secure Smyrna. STP (SC) helps break Germany. But A-Mos... A-Mos is a weird one. If you're working with Austria, as it looks like, then yes A-War obviously can't happen. But why even keep A-Ukr if you are? You could easily move that North to cover Warsaw/Moscow in the event of a German convoy to Livonia (which is clearly where Moscow is headed). So I'd have been more tempted to delay the build to get another fleet out next year for if you don't get a build out of Smyrna. Still, we'll see. You can now begin a slow invasion of Germany through Ukr -> War -> Sil and Mos -> Liv -> Pru, and going slow isn't such a bad thing in your position. If the bounces with Austria weren't pre-agreed, you do need to rescue that relationship though. Going with no allies isn't going to work this early. Whether you can persuade Turkey to suicide anywhere else remains to be seen, but your position remains very solid anyway. Another cookie for you.

Turkey - Ouch. Well, that's pretty much that. Enjoy getting to choose who to fuck here, but at this point you're basically just an old prostitute on a street corner. Might even get yourself a threesome going if they pay you enough. Lucky you!