3 people should in theory die every night phase. One from the mafia, one from the vigilante, and one from the serial killer.

@TheJok3r the reason the doc should protect himself is that, as I said before

we literally have ZERO relevant information.

none of what we are saying now matters, though it will matter once actions have been taken.

like, literally. there is equal incentive for townies and mafia people to want there not to be a vote today, just as the reverse is true. so we are learning nothing here.

Anyway I already made my vote. I don't want to push too hard on this lest I be the one that gets lynched, but that's my whole point. More than likely we will lynch an innocent townie and create this whole web of unnecessary suspicion and all this misinformation will fly around as the innocent townie tries to save himself, which he should, because we need the innocent townies to stay alive to win, lol.

You're right, a regular guy probably shouldn't just claim to be the cop or whatever, but at the same time, if it seems like the town is on the verge of lynching him, I wouldn't blame him. Especially nearer to the end of the game and now on the first day, when everyone is essentially innocent.

Hmm....Thucy and The Jok3r both have good points. While I do believe it is important to have numbers, information gathering is also important. I would like to enlist the wisdom of probability and risk management. Through the first couple rounds information will be at a low, as such any votes cast by the town will be rather random. So if we cast a random vote we have a 5/18 or 27.8% chance of eliminating a mafia member/ serial killer, and if we miss the mafia is sure to kill a town member, unless they by a miracle kill the serial killer. However i would like to bring up an important fact, by randomly guessing, we have a better chance of killing an important bad guy (mafia, serial killer) than an important good guy (cop, doctor, vigilante), so why we may end up killing our doctor, we have a better chance of helping ourselves. Granted this leaves of 10/18 or 55.56% chance of killing a normal person, but us normal people are expendable. Also, the mafia know who each other are so they have a better chance of killing our goods guys than we do. And abgemacht also makes a good point, 1-3 people will be dead tomorrow, most likely two of ours, so we may as well take the first shot, even if it is in the dark, instead of just taking a disadvantage. I hope this makes sense.

Okay well the Vigilante should know better than to kill someone tonight.

And the surely you mean Could not Should, jok3r

Problem with lynching someone day one is that technically right now even the mafia are innocent. Now, Abgemacht we know is a multi, since if he's not the cop that means there are two of him. And being a multi deserves to be banned.

Well, up to three.

The vigilante can only kill twice, no? And the everyone may independently pick the same person.

I don't think the normal people are really that expendable. They are what keep us from losing. Just saying. I think that's the core of the disagreement here. If we vote to kill someone it will be 3-4 people dead tomorrow instead of just 2-3. All probably townies.

OK, well my vote is for Warden.

Well, we literally have ZERO relevant information *right now*. It's only 50 minutes into the phase. 48 hours from now can be completely different if we play the game correctly and get people to talk. If everybody participates and gets others to talk, there is no excuse for not having valid reasons to vote.

We need more people to talk though. Quit hiding you multis!

my point is that until people start dying any words we say are meaningless. im not saying dont talk, im just saying that we will have no way to meaningfully glean anything from our talk now until after the first night. literally nothing.

I think you're completely disregarding the wealth of information that is gained from having a list of people that voted for someone that was lynched. Being able to question everybody on that list provides for a great deal of discussion. It really would have a decent chance of getting everybody questioning one another and having some good leads to go on.

Now, take the flip side of that and you don't have a voted lynch and information. If we were to reveal 3 people that died right now, we'd still have just as much information. We need to see who's willing to stick their neck out there and who's willing to defend the person being voted for.

Based Eden, when do we find out what the serial killer chose?

"2) We shouldn't lynch anyone this round. Whenever I play Mafia, that's always my suggestion on the first day, and I think it's a good suggestion. Why take a shot in the dark? Like I said... I don't really want to kill the doctor on accident."
In my experience its normally played with a night start, since the town is generally too pussy to take a shot in the dark and lynch someone at random.

That said, as a member of said 'pussy' town, I don't want to take chance of lynching someone today.

"If one of those roles is in imminent danger of being lynched, he's gonna make his case and tell us he's important. If he claims one of those roles, it's gonna be really hard to dispute his word. And as long as it isn't the doctor we have screwed up on, that player will have protection. "
Mafia has roleblocking capabilities. If the Vig, or the Cop or the Doc is outed because we're lynching him, it seriously hurts the town.

I see 0 sense in lynching today.


##Vote no one

What we need to do is not kill anyone. Let the mafia make a move. Maybe they kill someone. Maybe they don't.

I suppose I'm not allowed to make recommendations because you pricks aren't letting me play, is that right?

Oh and another thing, Vig you only have 2 bullets, don't waste one of them tonight.

"Also, the mafia know who each other are so they have a better chance of killing our goods guys than we do. And abgemacht also makes a good point, 1-3 people will be dead tomorrow, most likely two of ours, so we may as well take the first shot, even if it is in the dark, instead of just taking a disadvantage. I hope this makes sense."
Problem with this is that the mafia already knows who they are. This means at the moment mafia has more information then town, and their 4 votes are enough to reasonably decide the lynch, should we choose to lynch.

Lets let the cop gather a few reports before we start randomly pointing fingers at people for no reason other then killing for the sake of killing.

But on what basis? No one here knows anything, except their own role (at least us townies anyway), it would be a shot in the dark no matter what, based on hearsay. All of this is hearsay.

Tell me, how would you decide who to lynch then? To be honest, the only motive I can think of voting to lynch someone on the first day is a mafia member so as to whittle down the townspeople faster. Because the townies will have no way of narrowing anything down.

On the other hand, I can think of no motive for a mafia member to wish to vote for no one.

As I said, the chances are just not on our side. At least tonight the cop will have a chance to check someone out. The doctor will save someone who may be revealed if the mafia tries to kill them.

Again, tomorrow we will have a lot more information and our words will BECOME relevant, but as it stands, this is all bluster.

If you can somehow convince me otherwise, go ahead. But I can't think of any good reason or evidence on which to lynch someone.

The "we should just do it in case we hit a mafia goon" logic is just so weak. The numbers are against that logic.

"their 4 votes are enough to reasonably decide the lynch, should we choose to lynch."

True that. I'm honestly a little suspicious of the people not arguing for a no-vote today, the more I think about it.

That being said I STILL do not want to lynch today. Not even on that basis.

Well, my entire, taking a risk instead of a disadvantage, idea, takes the assumption that losing a regular (the most likely outcome) is an acceptable risk, as well as killing one of our own good guys, due to probability. Also, it is beneficial to the mafia to say kill no one, so as to deflect suspicion. Currently the vote count seems like this Kill no one: 3 Kill someone: 3. So anyone else who would like to weigh in and break this deadlock, that would be much appreciated.

"Problem with this is that the mafia already knows who they are. This means at the moment mafia has more information then town, and their 4 votes are enough to reasonably decide the lynch, should we choose to lynch."

How do you know this, Fasces? I was under the impression the mafia wouldn't learn who their fellow mafia mates were until they strike tonight...

Why is losing a townie for no reason an acceptable risk? We need to maintain a healthy majority. As I said, if we lynch, chances are, tomorrow we are down 3-4 townies. If we don't lynch, we're down 2-3 townies.

Seems pretty straightforward.

"Mafia Goon:
You are BEARNSTEIN, a Mafia Goon! (Yes, all four of you are BEARNSTEIN.) During the day you may make a cheating accusation against someone; the candidate which reaches a plurality will be banned at the end of the day. During the night, you may talk to your mafia partners, vote on who to ban and vote on who to roleblock. Your mafia partners are <Mafia Partner A>, <Mafia Partner B>, and <Mafia Partner C>. The target of your factional roleblock WILL be notified that they have been roleblocked. You may vote not to ban someone and you may vote not to roleblock someone. You win once the serial killer has been eliminated and once either all of the town players are dead, or nothing can stop you from eliminating all of the town players. Additionally, you will receive a copy of the Vanilla Town role PM in the following message. You may use, and must submit night actions to, this QuickTopic thread: <QuickTopic thread link>"

@abgemacht: based upon the pre-game PM, they already know.
@Thucy: I have recently noticed a contradiction in your press, earlier on this page you said: "like, literally. there is equal incentive for townies and mafia people to want there not to be a vote today, just as the reverse is true. so we are learning nothing here" and you just said you see no reason for the mafia to vote no vote. So which is it, Thucy, I am not trying to get you killed, but i would like you to explain.

Oh, I see. Sorry, I didn't read all the pre-game PMs carefully.

As townspeople there's no way we're going to be able to rely on any information we get the next day anyways. All we do know for sure is that we are likely to be down at least one innocent townperson the next day. The thing is, the ONLY power we normal citizens have is the power to lynch someone, and I damn well want to exercise my rights before the mafia kills me.

The problem with waiting for the next day is that we are guaranteed to lose at least one of the GOOD guys overnight, while we might be able to knock off one of the bads if we strike first. I agree that the vigilante shouldn't fire tonight, simply because he has the same kill potential as the mafia, but a limited number of hits.

The more nights go by, the better position the mafia is in, the more day phases, the better things are for the townspeople. Thus, we should exercise our lynch power and risk killing a friend. Even in future turns the lynch mob will have no reliable information about who to kill, and the proportion of mafia to innocents will only increase.

Additionally, it makes sense for there to be a day phase first because otherwise someone doesn't really get to play at all when they're killed before the game even starts. This way even those killed at the start get a say.

"I'm honestly a little suspicious of the people not arguing for a no-vote today, the more I think about it."

You know this goes both ways, right?

Also, I failed to read that the vigilante is only a two-shot role. That's a good feature for balance. Otherwise this game would be over super fast.

Honestly Thucy, when I read that quote about the mafia having 4 votes and being reasonably enough to decide a lynch, our odds do not get better tomorrow. The mafia is likely to land a hit. The serial killer as well. And depending on whether the vigilante goes for a kill. (Which I do agree with that he should not use one of his two bullets right away). That's a different circumstance from lynching daily.

So, back to my point about are odds not getting better. Lets assume both the mafia and serial killer land their hits and we lose two people. We now have 16 players. The mafia is guaranteed 25% of the voting power. Sure, you take a gamble on hitting somebody, but reducing the numbers of the mafia is far more important than the loss of a townie. Every member the mafia loses is highly significant. And the same goes for townies as well but we have more room for error. I'm of the mindset that you take every chance you get to knock out the mafia.

Also, you seem to be blatantly ignoring my points about gaining information from seeing who votes for somebody. You gain information from all of that when they flip. You keep saying it's irrelevant but it really isn't.

"I'm of the mindset that you take every chance you get to knock out the mafia."

Exactly. Townie chances won't ever get better overnight, so it's best to knock someone out when we can.

Thucy, I would very much like for you to post back now defending your argument and explaining your contradiction. Otherwise much doubt may be placed upon your status as a Townie.