I believe my wagon is current WD, Jamiet, Ghug, Gold, Vecna, y2k.

Anyhow, I'm going to go have some breakfast. Be back soon.

captainmeme, Day 1 becomes more and more relevant as we move on and players start flipping. Maybe all the D1 banter isn't too helpful for determining the D1 lynch, but that doesn't mean it's not helpful, and I think you realize this and are shrugging off your lurk as no big deal. You're also exaggerating the push on you.

Few things.

@Meme, two reasons: the entire time this wagon was developing I was either drunk or asleep, and the purpose of this is to get you talking, not necessarily to kill you. I actually like that post, but my vote stays until you prove it's not lonely.


Don't non-VTs receive our PM as well? Kinda makes Chaqa's concerned citizen bit suspect.

No, apparently I just noticed that in the Princess Peach description. Nobody else has it.

I'm still not sure about captainmeme. But Chaqa STILL HAS NOT ANSWERED the questions directed at him by both krellin and Vecna.

Krellin asked me to explain why I felt he was "off". It's a rather abstract feeling and therefore has an abstract answer. Not worth the hassle of getting into a krellin argument.

Moscow, you seem not sure about a lot of things. Ever gonna commit to an opinion?

@captainmeme
"
Ghug - You've been wanting to lynch me over this for the past 10 mafia games. Why, when there's finally some degree of support for it, are you not really pushing it at all?"

Ghug wanted to lynch you for lurking when you were teammates in M9 Purge of the Jedi?

Hmm ghug any thoughts on that mis-statement there. Is this a wifom game you two are playing with us?

And yes I do read the old games. ;)

A xorxes lynch or a y2k lynch wont take off today. A meme lynch looks more likely but Id love me some juicy ghug counter-wagon. Ghug is on everyones scum reads and yet nobody seems to want to go for it.

##Vote ghug

Follow me to the fucking promised mushroom land fellow citizens. Ive found a scummy little king boo hiding among his crew.

I've been possibly the most vocal opponent of meme's lurky style. Sounds like simple exaggeration to me.

Everyone is scumreading me? Are you even scumreading me? Your argument is basically "he agrees with me". Are you really the townie I'd want to buddy as scum?

Brainbomb - why did you say I was certain town in your reads when I had only made one post containing fairly little information?

Im absolutely scum reading you. Ive read everything youve said this game and not a word of it makes a lick of sense.

And no, bb, he didn't want to lynch me for lurking in the game we were scum together. He didn't want to lynch me for lurking in the games I GM'd and Co-GM'd either. However, we've been having arguments about lurking since M5.

I liked your one post meme. It felt geniune.

@Y2k - That's a point against my lurking, not against me focusing on my wagon. Sure, some interactions may be revealing as the game goes on - but that doesn't change the fact that right here, right now, the most significant event is the wagon on me. Stuff that becomes useful later is not meaningful right now.

while were on the subject meme this is not in fact the first time youve been up for lynch day 1. Tell us the tale of the time town panderded for a meme lynch due to lurking and you were spared the gallows. Regale us because it invalidates Ob_Gyn_Kenobi's claim that a lurker lynch is unprecedented. Town ought to hear that story.

Everyone knows about that already. I think WD and OB were in that game anyhow.

##call gm: what's the votecount?

@MoscowFleet - Why did you feel it necessary to push the fact that you were new to the game so hard in your post on Page 18? Everyone knows you are new to the game, what do you gain from repeating that fact over and over?

"Everyone" You have an interesting definition of everyone. You dont seem worried at all to die and neither do I.

While were on the subject of lynching Chaqa is taking alot of heat and seems like hes driving down the freeway with the top down listening to don henley. I wont be voting Chaqa.

y2k is "barely" improving. The fact that all of my scum reads are clustering onto ppl I townread bothers me. Vash is especially disturbing.

@ghug why are you and vash dramatically limited in interaction this game?

I hope DO gets better soon! Someone call... the doctor? Thank Maniac for joining.

@Brainbomb/brainmom: I wasn't trying to vote for you. I was just riffing off of the autocorrect.

Reminder: I've said before that I don't believe much can be gained from the first day, so my first vote would be somewhat arbitrary. My criteria was whomever used the most profanity, because I do NOT want webdip blocked by my school firewall. Currently, I believe that person is krellin, but I don't actually want to vote for krellin. Can you go back to <fluffing bunnies>?

@all
If I may reiterate a point I made earlier, the ability to lie reduces the potential for true information from day one posts. Playstyles vary, but playstyles could also be faked. Why wouldn't mafia want to act (and play) like town? Why wouldn't a town PR lurk (or not lurk) to try to signal the wrong thing? There's no way to control for the variable that is "you can present yourself however you want," so I'm thinking the question of playstyle is a moot point right now. Likewise, I'm not at all convinced that lurking by itself provides enough actual information. People have jobs, families, etc, and those things do (or should) take priority over forum games. Or perhaps someone lives in a time zone that prevents them from posting when you're online--look at how many posts (pg 4-6?) were made late at night. Those people may have been online, but they weren't going to get a conversation with me because I was asleep and not posting. Lurking *could* be a playstyle decision, but it doesn't *have* to be. The case of DO show this handily... lurking was not a conscious play style, but an result of "real life." There's not enough information to make a real decision. Hat tip to @Chaqua and @MoscowFleet for arguing a similar point

That said, I think there's a substantial discussion to be had about whether lurkers should be lynched or not. I don't think it's a question of reads, but a logic question.
Bear with me while I think this through:

a) Town has incentive to protect itself, and lynch votes are the only way to do that. Good town play ought to deal with liabilities: nonvoters are out, but modkills will take care of that. Town has incentive to actively search out mafia by building consensus. Hunting at all is a bonus, even if the hunting is ridiculous. Posting regularly at all is good for town. Post that aren't "hunting" are problematic, but not significant. But lurkers are dead weight on both counts, as they are neither giving information nor hunting, so it's an advantage to town to lynch a lurker, whether they're VT, PR, mafia. I accept that lynching an unknown doesn't provide much information about the lurker him/herself, but lynching a lurker (and NOT an active participant) allows for continued information from the active player who avoided being lynched. (Town also has to signal to each other who the PR's are, so they don't hand out guns/bandaids to the wrong people. Good town PR means not lurking.) Again, I don't think we can read too much into lurking as a playstyle, but on day one, town doesn't have to care. It's a matter of math.

b) Mafia has an incentive to keep Town turned on itself. Only Mafia actually knows who mafia is, and will likely use that information to protect its own members. Mafia has incentive to get Town to lynch itself through obfustication and the likem, but they don't need to rely on it. If town is already accusing each other, why should mafia care? They can laugh and move on. They won't like a spotlight of investigation (who does?), and only really need to defend their own if it looks like a wagon is forming. Mafia has no incentive (that I can see) to vote for their own. Mafia will not kill their own, they cannot afford losing anyone. (In that regard, upon reflection, I think bb may have been RIGHT about town "not being afraid to die" ... as a team. As individuals, we each ought to want to continue playing. Whatever.). If playstyle on day one is to be given credence, look for those who jump to the defense of (certain) others, trying to redirect wagons, redirect investigations, etc. Don't look at who is doing the redirection, look at who WAS being investigated.

That said, I'm of the House, M.D. school of "reads." Everyone lies. Diagnose by medicating, by acting. I don't trust many words, because everyone is trying to spin a narrative. So here's what I came up with for a methodology for Town's lynch votes, to try to eliminate bad town and expose mafia. The reactions I'm expecting are not OMGUS or flamewars or the like, but the responses in hard data, responses in who the mafia kills.

The +/- notches are not scum notches or any kind of read, but a notice of what kind of unknown is useful-to-town. UTT notches care less about reads, and more about what helps Town.

nonposting, nonvoting: -2, but effectivelly +/-0 because modkill.
Town liability, mafia asset.
Mafia kill verdict? not a high value target
Mafia lynch verdict? sure, if it feeds confusion
Lynch verdict: nah. Will likely be modkilled.

littleposting (or posting very little, but still voting) (lurker): -1
Town liability (no information, not hunting), mafia asset (it's a town liability).
Mafia kill verdict? not a high value target
Mafia lynch verdict? sure, if it feeds confusion. could be a PR.
Lynch verdict: maybe, depends on what their posts actually do. Could be a PR, could be a no-show.

posting, nonhunting (laying low): +1
Town neutral (provides information, isn't hunting, but laying low. could be PR OR mafia), mafia liability (not enough information, not feeding confusion)
Mafia kill verdict? likely. depends on reads of town PR's signalling.
Mafia lynch verdict? sure, if it feeds confusion. could be a PR trying to avoid notice.
Lynch verdict: no, could be PR

posting, hunting: +1
Town asset (provides plenty of opportunity for information reads, actively hunts for mafia.)
Mafia risky asset / provisional liability (provides lots of free obfustication, but could wind up getting one of their own lynched)
Mafia kill verdict? not unless they're going after mafia
Mafia lynch verdict? no, they're providing free confusion
town Lynch verdict: no. not unless

overposting, hunting (spamming) -1
Town liability (too much random confusion, diluted pool of readable information)
Mafia asset (free obfustication, but no one believes the spammer)
Mafia lynch verdict? nah, providing free confusion, but if it helps the confusion, then sure.
Mafia kill verdict: keep around, they're useful.
Lynch verdict: not unless you get obvious signs of intentional confusion

(I love the word obfusticate. I learned it in this thread, and want to use it more.)

All this having been said, I ought to cast a vote so I can get back to work. I have no idea what a baseline play is from you guys. Until we can vote based on evidence, why not use the UTT rating from above? If anyone wants to improve on my categorization system, please feel free. By this system, and by my admittedly amateur impressions of the forum so far, who do you think are candidates for each category?

##VOTE Maniac. You inherited a littleposting situation, and haven't posted much since. If you're busy, just say so. Either way, I want to hear your thoughts on my system.

@Chqa -- "Krellin asked me to explain why I felt he was "off". It's a rather abstract feeling and therefore has an abstract answer. Not worth the hassle of getting into a krellin argument. "


COMPLETE and utter bullshit. I suggest you try to find the words, otherwise you are just the typical mafia scum voting for someone without providing and explanation why.

Chaqa --> Scum Notch +1 for crimes against transparency and honesty. More to the point, for just making up vague "I have a feeling" nonsense and expecting people to believe it.

If ANYONE here feels that "krellin is off" and different from past-krellins PLEASE vote for me.

Though I am not voting for Chaqa now, he is not on my list of "I will move my vote to kill this guy today to avoid a no-lynch or lynch of someone I have not yet identified as suspicious". You are on my list, Chaqa. Not that anyone gives a shit...

captainmeme, good to see you finally posting. As ghug suggested, the primary purpose of this wagon is to get you talking, not necessarily to kill you. Think of yourself as under probation for lurking, and any slip up will result in the doom of Damocles, and then your execution. You've already lurked in our D1, so now you get the doom. Failure to continue to contribute will end in your death.

I didn't decide to go after you before the game started, but I did decide that lurking was a serious threat to the town, as shown by last game, and that IF you decided to lurk again I would highlight your usage of lurking and giving fake excuses for said lurking as a history of past behavior on which to condemn you for it. I honestly expected you not to lurk given the pressures proposed by others in the pregame and postgame.

I have not been ignoring everyone else to solely focus on captainmeme, despite claims to the contrary, and I even responded directly to the question about other lurkers: that they weren't important right then. Now they are more important, but not necessarily the best option.

@brainbomb you also have a strange definition of "everyone" given your assertion that everyone scumreads ghug. But I have to get to work. Will post by phone at least a couple times today, and will hopefully finish deliveries before EoD today so I can get back on the PC.

My notes on 1st ten pages.

“Thanks to the GMs and good hunting to us” DemonRHK, reminds me of the kid on the periphery of the cool gang who wants to establish himself in the minds of the others that he is part of the ‘us’.

“Yea sorry for the double Demon issue..” DemonRHK – why apologise, hardly his fault. Trying to be nice to other players perhaps?

“…do all three of you have a proper explanation for your votes?” Jamiet99uk (page1) asks a rhetorical question possibly to set up attacks later on when early voters have to admit they had no proper explanations.

“hes either bussing or blowing smoke..” Brainbomb (page1) Why do you think mafia would bus on Page1 Brainbomb? (MQ1)

“then BOOM! You get Sheriff Andy for prom queen.” DemonRHK – correct quote is “…pretty soon, KAPOW!, the school is stuck with Sheriff Andy for prom queen.”. If there were a bomb in this game, I’d read the misquote as a breadcrumb. As there is no bomb, DemonRHK is just being sloppy. Sloppy can be bad, attention to detail is important, but sloppy could be good: Mafia may be more guarded and therefore accurate with their posts. (I know, I’m hedging)

Brainbomb queries y2k’s use of the word ‘purport’. Teacon7 a few posts later (his 1st?) says “Does y2k normally use big words like that?” – Inexperienced scum may think they have to ‘back-up’ other scum’s points and support an attack. I can only recall one instance in all our games where players have raised issues with vocabulary [a house point if others can also recall it], and we get two people picking up on the “big word” ‘purport’. This seems wrong – could Brainbomb and Teacon7 offer an explanation please? (MQ2).

“Brainbomb is magnifying my scumminess and I'm not sure why” – y2k – Is this an admission by y2k that he has some scumminess and that Brainbomb is magnifying it? (MQ3). Something has to exist in order to be magnified.

“Given the signup thread, it seems likely that brainbomb would have lots to say.” Teacon7 – giving his scum buddy a reason to talk (as if he needed it).

Xorsex “ [][]VOTE y2k for now, just because I felt there was something off..@reedeer, was it you who came up with the rule of three? I remember it was one of the new guys, but not sure if it was you. If yes, do you still think it's a theory worth pursuing?” – This post is interesting. I’ve spoken before in other games about how mafia are lazy and make cases based on ‘feelings’ as ‘hunches’, I think it’s possible xorsex is lazy mafia. Based on no more than a feeling he then tries to shepherd reedeer into following through on his rule of 3 which (not – coincidentally) would lead him to follow xorsex onto y2k.

OB – “ Lurk in the afterlife, pal”

Brainbomb – advises PRs

“At least 10 of us are concerned citizens” Brainbomb pg4 – why ‘at least’? There must be exactly 10 concerned citizens.

“… but when you read the individual PM it does.” Capt softing VT

Warden voting for capt for lurking might be telling. Capt had already posted by this point. Lurkers always attract some attention and they can be seen as easy targets. I think Town who have beef with lurkers spell out their issues with lurkers generally and may follow through if someone lurks. Mafia can’t do that so easily for fear of painting themselves into a corner and finding out later that one of their buddies are lurking. They will target specific lurkers or people with the propensity to lurk (like Capt and Guak), when they know they aren’t on the same team. Warden’s vote for Capt is more likely to be scum motivated.

Ghug’s comment on Brainbomb’s advice to PRs and Town seems sound. Possibly ghug’s comments are more neutral than usual. No scum hunting as yet.

“A few other warnings - captain, if you lurk again I am lynching you. brainbomb, if you spam worthless drivel again, I am lynching you.” Goldfinger - Love this comment. It just oozes Town.

Jamie has same kind of read on Warden voting for Capt for lurking.

“Scum never stay silent they have to talk. yoyo not talking pisses me off too” Brainbomb – note the word ‘too’ here. It implies that scum talking also pisses Brainbomb off. Why would that be Brainbomb? (MQ4).

“Xorxes once again has a scumvibe to me” – vecna – explain please? (MQ5)

OB makes a reasonable argument for voting Brainbomb and Jamie (predictably?) joins in. Quickly followed by Chaqa and then Krellin who then unvotes stating Brainbomb is not mafia.

“Even at that, I made a few comments.... but there was nothing -- and STILL is nothing -- really worth commenting on.” Krellin pg6 then on Pg 7 he discovers Vash’s post from a few pages earlier and dissects it. Only lazy scum would miss Vash’s post. Krellin later states his dissection of vash’s post was reaction testing.

“Our objective ....correction, the TOWN'S objective” Krellin – links himself to Town and then corrects himself which means he must be scum.

“Coming in I figured bb's tactic would be information overload, but it seems to be all the latter and none of the former.” Trip – If I were allowed to +1 this post I would.

HR also shares my read on Warden.

I think the promise of lynching meme was predicated on his infuriating playstyle combined with bad voting habits near EOD.

@warden what is your opinion of meme as a valuable asset to town in the games where hes been town.

Im weary of sticking my neck out for him but hes not going to fundamentally change his playstyle regardless of alignment. Krellins the same and more or less so am I. That being said his wagon is loaded with fickle voters who havent given adequate reads. Im fine lynching ghug as hes very fickle this game and has utterly lost his usual attack dog style of townplay.

@Maniac I was mafia last game and talked a lot but never asked any important questions or helped at all. My connection to teacon7 is nonexistant and I cant control if a new player addresses me or not. OB did not make a reasonable case at all which is why he feebily abandoned it. To your overall diatribe scum behavior in general annoys me. I did not relish being scum last game as its much more exhausting. I dont like being misled and lied too.