Oh please, Putin. Perhaps it doesn't work perfectly, perhaps it never can as long as there are religions, but God's sake can you imagine the sorry state this country would be in without it?
You might have seen a religious civil war, or even a theocracy. You might literally see religious persecution, the real kind, not the trumped up social persecution first-world Christians experience today.
I care about the first amendment as an agnostic a lot. A whole lot. Two reasons:
1) I believe nobody knows the truth about religion. Therefore, it would insane as well as facetious for the state to take a position.
2) Agnostics aren't exactly a well-liked or numerous bunch. Without the first amendment I could be subject to very real problems.
Anyway, back to LGBT issues. Perhaps this won't be totally behind us in 2020 or 2030 or whatever. But then again, race still isn't behind us. The point is though that there is a kind of tipping point where you may still have large numbers of bigoted-like people, but the majority is squarely in favor of civil rights for a certain group. At that point the law changes, the bigots are rightly labelled bigots, and they go into a sort of hiding and then you get second-wave bigotry much later after complacency sets in, which you see now with race.
But since a big majority of:
1) young people
2) city people
3) educated people
are in favor of gay marriage, it's hard to see how this isn't going to become law in the near future, since all three of those groups are only going to become more influential and numerous, not less.