Hopefully JMo steps in with some perspective on uclabb's question.
(Note: uclabb is easily a better player than I am, so I'm sure he's right.)
I like the Spain SC position. I think it's better to have France get some offense going. He can always wiggle an army down towards Portugal eventually, and that might come in handy in 1903 when he might not have any other build opportunities.

I am similarly questioning on this point, as France it would have not been my choice, for sure.

Mendax, I think TA's are not allowed to comment in this thread regarding game moves as it is similiar to talking about active games.

From 2wl's first post;

"Other site members and TAs are encouraged to pose questions to the professors for general discussion."

If I misinterpreted this, I apologise.

To wrap up Fall 01...

1. We had a nice discussion on the French decision to take Portugal before Spain. The professors like it, the TAs and spectators dont.

2. 2WL and I are both not sure what to do with Turkey. He might last another two years or thrive and top the board. But he is definitely in a weird spot.

3. The west is moving fast, so the east needs to get its act together. The winter builds will be placed on the board in an hour, and Spring 02 will begin.

Sorry there's been a backlog of cases I'm trying to get through. uclabb raises a very good point though that I'd like to comment on. I'll answer his question part by part.

"In what case was France's decision to take Spain this turn better than taking Portugal? In particular, Spain is superior in every way as a place for a fleet, so in most cases wouldn't it make sense to take Portugal first so that when he was done accumulating centers his fleet would be in Spain? "

You're correct here, the expected move when France is in a position like this is to take Portugal during the opening year. Though I think this is obvious, uclabb is referring to Spain's south coast. There is almost no situation where you ever want to move to the North Coast. Any unit in Portugal is an extra turn away from being helpful to you in any way. So by moving first to Portugal and then to Spain you are reducing the time it takes for you to position your fleet for another purpose.

"In fact, isn't the only case where taking Spain this year makes sense is if he is planning on moving to West Med this turn? Is that a good idea?"

This is also correct, though I think this may be an example of a newer player not understanding how the order of possession of these two centers can be important. Right now it wouldn't make sense for France to attack Italy. (Note I say this from what I can see of the board, and this may be inaccurate if there are hidden alliances occurring right now). The reason that France probably shouldn't be considering attacking Italy right now is because of his current relationship with Germany.

The only reason that Germany would move to Belgium is because he thought he had England's support to bounce France and keep him down to one build. What happened instead was that Germany lost Holland and only gained one center. Now regardless of whether or not France was part of England's plan he's been drawn into their fight. In Germany's position I would suspect a French/English alliance. What all that means is that France is going to be drawn into attacking either Germany or England within the next year.

So at this point I'll explain why a move to the western med will be interpreted as an attack on Italy. Right now there are three things France might want to do right now with his fleet. 1, Take Portugal. 2, Move into position to attack Italy. 3, move into position to attack England. To accomplish 1 you move to Portugal. To accomplish 2 you need to move to the Western Med along with moving making a build in Mar which will move to the Gulf of Lyons. To accomplish 3 you need to move to MAO with a fleet build in Brest that moves to the English Channel.

Now the reason that an attack probably isn't a good idea. Because it violates one of the key concepts, which is simply, do not start more then one war at a time if you can help it. Especially if you don't have a numeric advantage in supply centers. If you're fighting against multiple countries within the first two years then it's going to be almost impossible for you to gain any supply centers. One of the biggest mistakes newer, and even some more experienced players make, is they don't keep their options open. The opening years of a game should be a balance, trying to keep your options open as long as possible so you can see where the biggest opportunity is, but also making sure you don't wait so long to act that your neighbors decide you're too indecisive and manipulative to be an ally.

Sorry if that took some jumps to follow, but uclabb's "simple" question involved a lot of complicated concepts to answer in this situation. I think some of the other professors might want to add onto what I said about fighting multiple countries and with early game maneuvering.

Please also note, that while I said an attack on Italy is probably not a good idea, I cannot say for sure. Because if France knows 100% that he is diplomatically secure with Germany and England then an attack on Italy might make sense for him in this position. In treating this as a gunboat and from what I see though, the west is going to be shifting rapidly, and an attack against Italy at this point would probably leave France open to a joint alliance by England and Germany.

Autumn 1901

Some...lets just say "interesting" builds. Starting with...just about everyone.

Austria - a second fleet? Do you really think its entirely necessary, given your relationship with Italy and the clear weakness of Russia? What do you hope to gain with that fleet?

Turkey - a third army? When there is a potential Austria/Italy alliance, why do you insist on continuing your attack on Russia? Is it more important to try to take Sev, which appears unlikely at this point, or put up a resistance to the A/I and make amends with Russia? Food for thought.

France - two more armies? Traditionally, a move by France from MAO-Spain(SC) in 1901 indicates an Italian attack. While you may not actually be attacking Italy, it sends a strong yet misguided message toward a potential ally.

...what just happened? Okay, so...I'm not sure where to start here.

I'll start with France. Where are those armies supposed to go? Germany is going to be a tough opponent to crack with armies and so is Italy, both because of Switzerland. There's just no way to push through on either side on your own, you're now far more dependent on allies then you want to be. I think you tried appeasing both England and Italy there, but I'm worried it's going to cost you in the long run. A unit isn't any good if you can't do anything with it. I probably would have rather seen you hold off on a build that turn rather then make the second army.

Germany - not a bad choice considering France's builds. Right now you need to be figuring out how to get England or France to join your side and work Russia over to your side. When you think you're about to be attacked by multiple people figure out a way to make their gains uneven. When one ally is in a position to make gains and the other is facing a stonewall you can usually make the one in the weaker position realize the attack might not be the best idea for them.

England - That's a very anti- Russian/Germany fleet build and a very friendly French build there. You are still in a good position, just make sure you're aware what your builds signaled to the rest of the board and how your neighbors are going to react.

Italy - typical Italian build, really doesn't say much about your intentions. Though I doubt you're pleased with Austria's fleet...unless you're aiming for France while he's shooting at Turkey.

Russia - To be honest, I like your builds better then three other countries on the map right now. You were in trouble before the builds, but they just improved your chances more then I thought possible. Talk to your TA if you don't know what I mean.

Turkey - You are in trouble, A/I both have more navel power then you, that is a very very bad position to be in as a corner power. I completely agree with 2wl's comments about Sev.

Austria - My first impression was that was a terrible build, but the more I think about it the more I am torn about it. It has a lot of potential, but it completely depends on who you manage to build an alliance with.

Winter Adjustment 1901

I'm going to take a moment to explain something already covered in the previous comments in my own words.

All of the builds were as predicted, with the exception of France and Turkey. Each decided to build armies where they should have built fleets. And I understand the temptation to make surprising builds that other players don't expect. But in reality, surprising your neighbors in the build phase is usually very very bad. And for France and Turkey, it is.

Typically, a one build Turkey should put down a fleet, and a two build France should put down a fleet and an army. Failing to produce a fleet where it's expected makes everybody on the board stop, gasp, and look at the vast, unguarded waters. France has a lot of water now and only one boat to keep an eye on it. Turkey is in even worse shape.

Here's a couple of 1901 build universals:

England should build an army first unless he's being viciously attacked.

France should build an army and a fleet. (If he only has 1 build, make it a fleet.)

Germany should build an army and a fleet. (If he only has 1 build, make it an army.)

Italy should build a fleet (because Turkey probably will).

Turkey should build a fleet (because Italy probably will).

Austria should build an army.

Russia should build anywhere except Moscow.

Any disruption to this natural flow of builds throws the balance of the game way off. There are exceptions, but this is a solid rule of thumb.

Onward to Spring '02.

@hamster:
Could you elaborate on why you think England's first build should be an army?

@peterwiggin, I generally agree with that so I'll explain quickly. The main reason is defense. England can, with two armies, hold off attackers for years and years, which is usually enough time to diplomatically convince one of the attackers to reconsider. If they aren't being attacked then an army has so much more potential for securing a hold on the mainland then multiple fleets. I've seen people win games with 12+ fleets, but the general rule of thumb I follow is that you shouldn't need more then 4 fleets in a game. I will try and find the forum conversation explaining exactly why that's a good number of fleets, but it was a few years ago so it will take some time.

The other reason is that an England with massive fleet power seems to terrify both Germany and France. There isn't enough sea space to put 3 fleets without worrying one neighbor or another.

JMo is right. England is one of those countries that easily gets big, but it's tough to win. England can get to about 12 or 13 centers with just fleets, but the final 5 or 6 centers that it takes to get to 18 must be gained with armies. When I play England, I don't want to get stuck at 12 or 13 centers, I want to win, as I'm sure you do too. So it's critical to get armies convoyed onto the continent early, gain the toughest centers first, and then pick up the coastal centers towards the end.

Here's an example: gameID=124815 I had the awfully tough task of beating really good players as England. That first army that I built ended up playing a big part in my win. It took St Petersburg early on, and then, as the years went on, it wiggled its way across to Gascony where it helped support me into Marseilles.

On the other hand, in this game gameID=121480 , my opponent in England made the horrible choice to build a fleet in Liverpool, and quite a lot of fleets after that. He managed to get to 15 centers, enough to draw, but I believe he could've gotten to 18 and a win if he built more armies.

Wow, that was a lot of armies for England. I'm not sure how I've played for this many years and never figured out that England needs primarily armies, just like everybody else. Coincidentally, England is also my worst country.

On a side note, how'd you get 7 players into a 50 (D) live game with press?

@Mendax - I guess you are right, TA's are allowed to pose questions regarding the discussion.
So I guess my question is - Professors seemed to not be overly excited about the Austria Fleet. However, given the professors seem to have a concensus of :
1. Germany has his hands full 2. France's Spain move implies he would make a fleet in Marseillas and move into the Med in an anti Italien move 3. Turkey may make a fleet in Smyrna.
It seems to me that a Trieste fleet seemed a good choice if one intended to 1. Help Italy hold off France or 2. Go support your Balkan forces or 3. Get a double fleet assault of Turkey going in 1903.

@Mendax, Dyager, and all other TA's. While TA's are allowed to pose questions, I would refrain (or at least think very carefully) before answering any questions as a TA. The urge to respond can be overwhelming (for instance, as Austria's TA I have a great deal to say about some things in this forum) but answering questions without giving up confidential information would be difficult.

Just use your best judgment is all I'm saying. Carry on.

Bump

Bumptastic

Bumpity bump bump

Spring 02 moves and commentary coming tonight

Official bump. SoW Progressed to Fall1902. (gameID=126887)

Spring 1902

So I'm still kind of struggling to grasp what's going on in this game. I'm kind of curious if any of the students are reading these writeups (Turkey and England, I'm looking at you). With Breaking Bad ending last week, I'm going to take a page from Bill Simmons' book and divide you all up into classifications based on characters from one of the best TV shows of all time. If you don't watch Breaking Bad, don't worry, you'll know where you stand.

The Huell Tier (sitting in a safehouse, no connection to the outside world)

TURKEY - I'll ask again: did you read any of the writeups from last week? Lets take a look at your position. You didn't take the Black (Game of Thrones anyone?). You have a useless army in Arm. Sev is well supported. Russia is working with England and has a build coming. Austria is breathing down your throat. Italy is attacking Austria. Do I need to spell things out for you? If Italy is really going to attack Austria, then you need to take advantage of that fight, since its going to be your best chance to break out of your corner.

GERMANY - Hey, you didn't lose anything and you bounced England. Not bad? All is not lost, but you need some serious help right now, help that doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon. Your best bet is to appeal to one of the three friendly powers surrounding you to turn on the other, however unlikely it appears right now. Play this next turn right and you may even end up with a build.

The "Better Call Saul" Tier

You're doing OK, but you could use some serious expert advice.

ENGLAND - You had a great 1901. Two builds, a solid ally, and a wide open Scandinavia. Why, then, do you choose to help out your easiest target? Here's what should have happened this turn:

F Nor - Swe
F NTH - Ska
A Edi - NTH

I really expected you to be sitting in Swe and Den come fall. Russia had no builds - an England dream! Why give him a fighting chance? I understand you're attacking Germany at the moment, and that's great, but what do you realistically stand to gain from this arrangement with France? Den and Kie? Two builds? Then what - Russia is all of a sudden a five or six center power, since he may get Rum, so then what do you do?

AUSTRIA - Right now, I'm sure you're plenty mad at Italy, and you should be. He pulled a good stab on you and it doesn't look like you can do much, at least at this point in time. This is where that fleet you built last turn is coming back to haunt you. Italy has the drop, you have no real means of covering your home centers this turn, and that fleet isn't going to help recover Tri. But good news - it could be worse! With Turkey's attention turned north, you're free to throw your weight against Italy and make things a fair fight.

The "They're Not Rocks, They're Minerals" Tier

RUSSIA - Much like Hank's vaunted mineral collection, you're better off than you first appear. I don't know how you convinced England to give you a build, but good work! Your only real threat at the moment is yourself - Turkey can't touch you, so stay mistake free and play smart and you could potentially turn into a power in a few turns. The Austria/Italy situation is a blessing for you, as it takes a potential enemy off the table and lets you focus solely on growing and fighting a single, unthreatening enemy.

FRANCE - Your play this turn was predictable and easily seen by Germany, which isn't ideal. Predictable is bad in Diplomacy. The move through Pie is unconventional and slightly risky, but it at least shows that you recognize your quandary with too many armies and you're looking for a way around. You'll get your build, but that begs the question - what do you build? Big strategic decisions coming up for you.

The Todd Tier

ITALY - Much like our slackjawed friend-turned-Nazi meth cook Todd, you've stabbed an ally, and stabbed him well. You're virtually guaranteed at least one Austrian center, and you were astute enough to swing that ION fleet into a key support position. Nicely played. With Turkey ignoring you and Austria caught horribly out of position, you're set up to potentially be the early leader. You need to be careful to not get caught in a prolonged war of attrition with Austria. Play smart and be wary of getting bogged down and not to lose momentum.

Spring 1902

Please drink in 2WL's analysis, because it's awfully good. I have to agree that it seems like our professor's comments are being politely ignored by the students. While we try to only comment on past moves rather than suggest future moves, we do try to gently guide students in what we feel is the right direction. But, unfortunately, most of this guidance has gone unheeded.

This was a season of surprises for a lot of you. The important thing when you're surprised is to not get emotional or irrational. Fortunately, you have 2-day phases, so there's plenty of time to let the emotions subside and sort things out calmly. My second piece of advice is to write more press. Right now, I'm playing in a game with the highest rated players on the site, and you wouldn't believe the amount of paragraphs of messages that go back and forth between phases. That's a hint on how to get good at diplomacy. To me, the yucky moves I saw this turn were mostly a symptom of ineffective, paltry diplomacy. So write more, and you'll write your way to a win.

1. France. Congratulations. France is in the top spot, not for his particularly creative moves, but for Italy's exposed backside and England's peculiar attempt to strengthen a nation that should have been weak and easy prey.

2. England. As 2WL pointed out, a strong Russia plays more to the favor of Germany than to England, but more allies are better than more enemies, so I hope it works out. England expected Germany to try to bounce Russia out of Sweden. If he did, England's Heligoland move would have succeeded, but Germany's managing an acceptable defense. Worry not, it'll fall.

3. Russia. You've climbed out of the gutter. Russia is well on his way to reaching 6 centers by fall, and, other than Turkey's flimsy flailing, he's without an enemy.

4. Austria. Despite being stabbed by an ally, Austria only fell from third to fourth this turn. Even though he will lose a home center, he could gain one or two of Turkey's to cover his losses. With a still-friendly Russia who is now getting strong, Austria is doing ok.

5. Italy. Barring a mistake in tactics, Italy stands to gain a center and defend against France. He covertly used a pro-Austrian fleet build to disguise his plan for a stab. The reason I rank him so low is because he appears to have stabbed his only ally. He may be friends with Turkey, but at the moment that's not much help. I have trouble envisioning Italy getting past 5 centers.

6. Turkey. In my last post, I tried to suggest that Turkey should find a friend, and I believed that friend should have been Russia. Turkey has failed to realize that it is totally possible in Diplomacy to be friendly, stop attacking a former enemy, patch things up, come to terms, and find a mutually beneficial future. I doubt Turkey will get to 5 centers, and if his tactics continue to be so abysmal, he'll lose one or two this year.

7. Germany. Unfortunately, you're still in the gutter. You've dodged a bullet with some lucky defense, but the Russia whom you agressed early may come back to spite you. At this point, diplomacy may be futile, but don't give up. Also, pay attention to the possibility of surprising your opponents with an unlikely build. I see some possibilities.

@professors- It seems like you have different reads on France's move to Piedmont and the goal of such a move. Could you elaborate? How likely is it that France will move to Venice? Tuscany? Tyrolia? What would each of those moves mean and/or be paired with?

I'm certainly not convinced France is moving on Italy just yet. But I like the fact that he's forcing Italy to pull back his fleet into Venice to cover his open center; thereby blocking a potential army build there in the winter and losing a tempo.
Clearly, if he's moving to Tyrolia he's working a German attack, and a move elsewhere is anti-Italian. His fleet in MAO is far from the action and is probably heading to Portugal for the build. I like the fact that, no matter what France is ultimately doing, he's toying with the board, infuriating France, and thereby keeping himself in the top spot.

And that's really the bigger lesson: to be at the top of the board, you have to do lots of things well. You have to have good tactics. Good strategy. Good diplomacy. And you have to do little things well also. Be attuned to the nuances of communication. Do little things to throw your neighbors off so they have to back off on their good positioning.

I really don't think Italy has anything to worry about. Looking at France's army surplus right now, even with a fleet build this year, he's in no position to attack Italy, even with Austria's help. This looks like France got permission from Italy to move through Pied and I'm assuming Tyrolia.

That being said, France has the potential to do a lot of damage next year depending on where he builds and who he decides to work with.

I'm going to save most of my comments for next turn, but I want to go over a specific move in detail. That move was the fleet in the North Sea moving to Hel.

So the problem with this is that England should have known Germany would block that move. As a player on the board you need to pretend you are every other player when you make you moves so this is my stream of thought when I'm pretending I'm playing Germany last turn:

"France is clearly targeting me with his armies, so I'm going to have to support hold Ruhr with at least one unit, Munich in this case since it's an unbreakable support by France. Now England is probably going to be targeting Russia right now, but he's still in Belgium, so I'm going to need Kiel to support hold as well or else there's a good chance that I'm going to lose Ruhr, in which case I'm screwed. So that leaves Denmark.

So lets see, the fleet in the Gulf of Bothnia could be a problem if it moves to the Baltic Sea with a joint move to Silesia or Prussia from Warsaw, but there's really nothing I can do about that if it happens, so I'll have to diplomatically ensure it doesn't. Norway is probably going to move to Sweden or the Barrents Sea, though there's the off chance he works with Russia and supports him in to try and get Russia to attack me. So that really only leaves the North Sea that I have to worry about. It can move to Hel, Denmark, or Ska. England is going to assume that I won't leave Denmark open, so I doubt he will move there. If England moves to Ska then I need a unit in Hel or Denmark to cover against him. Now the real problem will be if he takes Hel, because then he could cut my support Kiel, allowing him and France to break my stalemate line. So I am going to have to cover Hel and hope he doesn't move to Denmark."

^That's what I figured out before the turn went through, so as England I would have convoyed London into Denmark and Edi to the Norwegian Sea. Then I would have Sweden and Denmark this turn. Worst case I don't get Denmark, but I'm still in a position to take StP and Sweden the next year.

This is why thinking through the best moves for every other country is *so* important. You have to figure out what your neighbors are going to do based on what makes sense for them, not just on what you moves you hope they will make.

Official Bump: Retreat and then Adjustments for 1902 (gameID=126887)

jmo: Could you elaborate on how to use press to give the impression (to a foe) that you're taking a different defense/attack then you actually are? For example, in this case, how could Germany work to make England think he's staying in den when he's actually going to hel, or how could England have worked to make Germany think he's going to den when he's actually moving to hel?