I think I even told you before the roles were given out, and we knew anything I would vote for you day 1 just to joke around. You have no opinion of that now. And I am flat out saying I think its scummy.

@bb

A) A lot of the actions you describe there have either been at the latter part of D1, or not on D1 at all. You're right - I don't lurk on latter days; and never said I did. But I have never been a fast & active starter to a game. You've read every game. You should know that.

B) Thank you for admitting it at last; but why did you deny it initially when I brought it up?

@krellin
Warden has essentially put into solid words what a lot of people, mostly town but sometimes mafia, say almost every game D1. There is definitely logic to it - but I don't think it's either townie or scummy. Lurker lynching gives the least amount of information, so I am against it. You get the fewest reactions and the least information from their revealing. That's why I want to hear Wardens' thoughts on people other than Captainmeme.

I pay zero attention to what you say you're going to do before a game starts; too. Building yourself a meta to slot nicely into if you're scum is something I am not idiotic enough to fall for. You voted me. y2k voted me. ghug voted me. Woo. I know it wasn't going to stick. You knew it wasn't going to stick. ghug & y2k knew it wasn't going to stick. So why even bother doing it? That has always been my problem with early day votes - no matter who they're on. Unless you get someone like Bo who manages an actual scumslip (and even then the wagon on him didn't really kick off til the last 12 hours or so), early D1 is just a shitfest

braimbomb, you are far too skilled of a player to think that OMGUS has to have a vote linked to it in order to be scummy. krellin has pointed out the act of character assassination several times, and I think he often over-exaggerates what he perceives as attacks on him, he is correct that it's a valid and profitable tactic that has been used. "Oh My God, You Suck" is a statement that can be said in conjunction with any number of actions in response to a scum read or vote.

I have read bits of every game. You admit you have not!

I dont really care about your second question? So just make up some answer in your head. It doesnt matter why I use gamblers fallacy to start initial suspicion of people. I distrust you, OBGYN, and y2k because the frequency of how many times you have all been scum is relatively low. If thats a shitty way to begin an investigation then by all means show me some better system. I am allowed to start with anything I damn well please. I could use a random dice roller for that matter like I did last game. As Mafia I literally used a dice roller to determine who I would befriend, and then would roll again to determine who I would scumread in my fake reads.
This system at least combines some degree of odds. You still fail to admit that over the course of 15 games, a player will eventually be scum. it isnt gamblers fallacy its obvious. You worked for a Mafia site and know that of course there are frequencies that 9 games in a row you might be a blue townie, but theres always a counter frequency as well. And even in large setups like this, there is a law of averages that eventually one of you people will be scum again, or for the first time. You are so ANGRY about this, and its even something youve agreed with me on privately before.

guak had it right last game. Nobody listened to him. It doesnt make him wrong he just didnt have any other proof than a fallacy and a few tidbits of behavioral science. Had anyone at all listened to him in MXVII Maf would have lost and youd all be laughing at how dumb I am.

I will be scum eventually; assuming I keep playing. I agree.

My odds of being scum in this game are no different to anyone else's though. Neither are OB's. You're now just saying you used gambler's fallacy... and using it again!

Your inability to comprehend such simple logic is fairly irritating, yeah. I would much rather be talking about other people; but I can't just let you off for doing something so patently obtuse. So I've had to make my responses & questions to other people underneath my replies to this pile of crap.

Early D1 is not a shitfest at all if responsible and skilled players actually do their duty. And for someone as experienced as you, and as prolific of a Veteran, and GM of the game you must understand the need to think outside the box, and try other ways of thinking to unearth scum. You seem really afraid of me. Dont worry you will have your chance to kill me tonight HR. This town wont lynch a legend such as you.

Didnt you say last game that the towns performance was the worst you had ever seen? Wouldnt you say they should have listened to guak (who used gamblers fallacy?) Or is that too damming for yourself?

hi i'm withdrawing, I am much too sick to read this thread and I don't project being better for a few days at least

good luck town x0x0x0x0

I am sorry to hear that DO, please take care and feel better.

You're right; it won't.

I have played thousands of games of Mafia. The start of a game is ALWAYS a pointless shitfest. Even in live mafia games I tended not to start doing anything until about 4-5 minutes into a 10 minute phase D1 a lot of the time. There is thinking outside the box, and there is using logic that is outright incorrect. They aren't the same thing.

krellin, as for the idea that I am PR hunting, I have already stated, and think it's general principle that no PR should fall into the obvious and idiotic play of pure lurking, because all that does is give the scum who know which lurkers are scum and which are not, a better idea of who the PRs are.

As for the idea that lynching a lurker D1 provides zero information, that's utter bullshit. If the lurker is the only wagon, and it's a unanimous policy lynch, yes, that would be useless. But what informational gain do we get from lynching [Active Player X] who happens to be innocent over [Lurker Y] who happens to be innocent? Innocent flips don't get us useful scumhunting information either way. So let's examine guilty flips: [Active Scum] dies, and we get to look at all the information he left us with ON EVERY DAY HE WAS ALIVE. The hooks he left pointing at actual innocents, the WiFoM comments, the artificial associations he was able to put together. Lot's of information, which only grows as the game goes on. We also get to see his voting pattern. Now, for [Lurking Scum] we get... his votes on every day, and the very few posts he made, which could easily come out meaning nothing.

So, how is killing a true lurker later in the game really that much more valuable than killing him now? You think his votes are going to be considerably more useful somehow?

I tend to agree that lynching lurkers is a bad call, but after last game I have begun to think a little differently.

One of the biggest mistakes I made in the past game is I let my case on meme drop due to him not being present or active in the game. I should have continued to push it and perhaps we could have avoided the loss.

Still, this early, I think it is a bad call to go for a lurker because it's impossible to know 24 hours into a game who is lurking through and continually evading questions until a little later in the game.

That's part of my point on meme, ND, we know he is intentionally lurking because it has been his MO for numerous previous games. We know it harms the town. I'm tired of repeating myself on this issue, so I won't reiterate all the arguments why meme needs to be a serious contender for the lynch, but the resistance toward lynching him is very telling, and only proves that his strategy works for him, and against everyone else. I can't believe that you are all willing to put up with it.

Please don't modkill me:)

Really, though, I'm sorry I haven't posted yet. The game started at a very busy time for me, and I definitely intend to post more as the game goes along. So now some thoughts from a newbie:

This game is about figuring out who is Mafia, yes? And so far, I've read about several methods to do this. Votetracking is interesting, and thanks to goldfinger for the tracker. But I have no idea how useful this will turn out to be, as this generally comes into play later in the game, so can't really comment on this. "Kill the lurkers" has been discussed quite a bit, and has a very logical argument for it: if you're lurking, you're not contributing to figuring out who's mafia. But there are too many outside factors that can affect this, mainly lack of time.

Chaqa's announcement of lurking, however, seems very suspicious. From a Mafia's point of view, it makes sense. You tell everyone you're lurking, so people don't lynch you for lurking, and people will automatically focus on someone else. So I am suspicious of Chaqa.

And then the theory that if someone is clear, concise, and making logical arguments, they are probably town. And because of this, if someone is posting in a manner that creates confusion, they are probably Mafia. This makes the most sense to me. It is straightforward and as a Mafia, it's difficult to avoid this as I would imagine a Mafia's goal would be to essentially make sure the town are disunited.

More thoughts to come. Good night!

Okay HR but come on. You have to understand why I am more worried about you than most people. OB and y2k are far more obvious scum this game than you are. I am not in the habit of just settling onto my top reads and hoping they gain steam yet. I want everyone to talk and help us. I VERY strongly distrust y2k this game.
You voting for me tells me you really dont know me at all which seems impossible. I know you cant claim such a thing because you and I talk everyday. But you want to find tiny logic cracks in my thinking which; to be quite honest, I always have logic holes in my thinking and you know this. You know this, right? To pretend like you dont is silly. If I am onto something about any of my accusations so far I would be thrilled to hear someone at least acknowledge it. The problem I have with what you did was you validated my suspicions of OB_Gyn_Kenobi but then defended him over and over and over by just simply saying he and I must BOTH be scum.

That doesnt even make sense. OB is townreading me and advocating my lynch. Now you have joined it. This is some of the least nuanced, most sloppy play you have ever shown. At least in MXV you wanted to know why I was suspecting people randomly. This isnt random at all, I noted a few players who havent been scum that often and started from there. I dont think thats an egregious system to use as guak was actually right last game in doing so.

This is a complete clusterfuck of stupid shit if were all town so for now you answered my questions, and whether I like the answers, or whether I think you are playing optimally is really up for the masses to decide.

##UNVOTE

@warden - krellin, as for the idea that I am PR hunting, I have already stated, and think it's general principle that no PR should fall into the obvious and idiotic play of pure lurking, because all that does is give the scum who know which lurkers are scum and which are not, a better idea of who the PRs are


Except your theory requires that EVERYONE play exactly as yo play. Which is astro d and obvious false assumption. It also isn't born out by history of gamescAT ALL. To say no PR EVER lurks day one is just a childish notion.

Your insistence we lurk-hunt DAY 1 is.....

......hmmm.... It means Mafia know who DAY 1 town lurkers are, and also knows it is reasonable they may be hiding because they have a PR - especially noons.....

..... So that is your plan Mr. Mafia. Was it deviousness that caused you to spill the beans about your plan? Or just a slip?

Warden --> scum notch +1


As for the defence by another that "its well known that....". Whatever. That's bullshit. Its opinion, not fact. Further, since town doors not overwhelmingly win, it can't be proven that the strategy that is " always used" is actually beneficial, versus just being what is always done.

Wardens Day1 lurker strategy is ANTI-TOWN, it provides no linkage, it does BOT increase is of catching scum, it DOES increase odds of catching lazy townies and quiet town PR's....it is an overall net loss by probability analysis.

##VOTE WARDEN

Brainbombs reads before silence, I am teaching all day tomorrow and will not be around to witness my own death.

1.vash - Unusual. I dont know how to interpret him this game. I dont like that I cant read him effectively. Normally he is town and I misread him as scum.
-Null

2.ghug - he is agreeing with my every move. buddying me without actually buddying me. He sheeps votes I would want to go for, but builds reasons for why. I am truly disturbed and it really scares me. -Maybe Scum

3.vecna - He was really worried about me being his friend and then proceeded to develop a sinister spammy style of play I have never seen. I am truly baffled and creeped out - scum

4.HR - After all this nonsense, I think he has provided the most honest, most reasonable defense of himself I have ever seen. I cannot vote him.
-Likely Town

5.Jamiet- very uneven. His play is all over the place which I dont understand. I am struggling to figure him out as he both attacks me, but also has periodically defended me. -Null

6.y2k - It just doesnt add up. His behavior is terrible. He is so far out of character that I just cannot trust him this game. His style of play is as bad as I have ever seen, and he is just so willing to go along with whatever. -Scum

7.OBGYN - Okay fine OB you might not be scum. I dont get it though. What is your deal? You are bizarre as fuck this game and it makes no sense at all. I dont like your stated reasons for anything.

8.Trip - You have laid low, typical of a new player, but so far you, xorxes, reedeer1, and Teacon7 are all in grave danger of being manipulated by veteran players. Please form opinions unique to yourself and ignore EVERYTHING people say.

9.Teacon7 - youve tried alot more than trip. youve been more involved. I think you are town, so make some wise choices and dont be buddied by ANYONE. in fact, vote me if you really want to and think i am scum.

10.reedeer1 - you promised a better game, bring it man. This isnt it. ND and you are so far pretty attached at the hip. Reeder1 go beyond rule of 3 it isnt relevant this game and were dealing with a new scum team. Please wake up and realize your vote could make a difference! You are smarter than this.

11.DemonRHK - You wont die today. okay that happy feeling should go away fast because I want the vig to kill you. Just kidding. I wanna see how you reply to this comment at some point in the night phase because honestly you are good at this game. You arent a noob at all. You have ideas but why the ND votes?

12.krellin - You are a ridiculous person to add to a game lol. I just got nothing. I dont like anything you are doing so far. Everything you say is a gambit and a vote hedge. You truly are trying to make yourself way to important.

13.yoyoyozo - You make me want to urinate on my own car and then burn it. Where are you man?

14. Moscowfleet- you are really awful man, please, tell us who the scum team is before you get modkilled kthankx

15. goldie - You are obvious town. the MOST obvious in fact

16. Meme - You are also town and I wont be advocating your lynch

17. Warden - You are also town, and you need to step up your game.

18. DemonOverlord you are saying you get replaced? modkilled? I am sad. I hope you feel better.

19. chaqa - You are probably the stupidest person I have ever met. I dont think you actually would know how to find a kleenex at a snot party.

20. ND - I dont understand any of the reads on you at all. I think they are beyond idiotic as you have not been scummy. You have to play better. Do something new? I dont know, these people are stupid and dont get it.

21. xorxes - you are playing the same as last game. you are playing the same as last game. let me say that one more time. you are playing the same as last game.

Krellin, lynching a lurking scum D1 would provide exactly the same amount of linkage as lurking an active scum because people would weigh in on one side or the other of the matter. It's only if the lurker IS THE ONLY WAGON that it provides no information. Again, I am not just generically lurk-hunting, I am specifically calling out captainmeme as a repeat, consistent offender of an anti-town strategy known as lurking, and arguing that he should be the town's lynch today.

I have never once said that "no PR ever lurks day one" nor even implied it. I have stated that lurking is a stupid PR strategy that WILL get PRs caught by the mafia, who know who the scummy lurkers are, and which lurkers are not scum. This does not require anyone play like I play, it simply requires that players aren't ACTIVELY TRYING TO HIDE BY LURKING.

You make it seem like I'm revealing some sort of plan, or extra information. The mafia know which noobs are in them, if any, and know which lurkers are part of them, if any because they all know each other.

You're growing less intelligible as you continue this argument. You can't even type properly. And I'm done arguing with you on this topic. Failure to kill captainmeme or to prompt him to contribute properly only invites more lurking.

##GM Note

DemonOverlord has been in hospital and has asked to be replaced.

Maniac, as first substitute, is replacing DemonOverlord from this moment onwards.

Please welcome Maniac! Thank you.

Welcome, Maniac!

##VOTE Maniac

won't say hi to me :(

READS:

TOWN:
EVERYONE BUT MANIAC

SCUM:
MANIAC

After ND's interactions with krellin and y2k's since this morning I think that the correct stance was in fact the reverse of what I thought. ND's a town on our side, I just haven't seen his play enough to realize it. And in fact I think y2k is scum after all.

##vote y2k. It's all been reactionary play since page 1. While I think the lurkers will need to go I agree swinging them now will provide no info for us, and we're in the 2nd half here. While I am not making the greatest case at the moment, I'll get more in depth in the morning.

Also welcome in Maniac, glad you're joining us, but unfortunate are the circumstances in which you join us.

##voteYoYo

Literally no actual content with 20 hours or so left in the day. I mean, I understand being busy, but can you do more than lurk? because last time you lurked this hard, was last game.

Also, sad to see Demon go (though totally understandable), and a heidi ho to Maniac.

@Chaqa
"I'm a Concerned Citizen. Sigh. Expect lurking and wild accusations."

Thank you for informing us of your actions ahead of time, but there was no need.to do so. We would automatically figure out that you are town by doing this reckless behavior because come on, mafia have never lurked before, and they certainly haven't tried to be distracting with crazy accusations. But thank you for clarifying nonetheless. Now we have an addition reason to town-read you, because you've said so and we have can take your word for it.

Yoyo being a fuck I think I actually townread for it.

Vash doesn't understand commas major scumtell.

I'm camping until Thursday morning I'll probably have some reception but not bunches and i wanna enjoy the wilderness so expect some really lurky ghug until then.

##VOTE Meme
At the very least we get him involved. Maybe we lynch him and he doesn't do this bullshit anymore. We got close once. Anyway I'm bored of Jamie.