BALKI’S SCUMREADS:
In this post, I will state the six people I view as most likely to flip scum, which is the criteria I plan to use in voting today, and the criteria I hope that others use as well.
1. Y2K
I expect Town Y2K to be thoughtful, an independent thinker, and adaptable. In this game, he has raised my suspicions for three reasons.
(a) Y2K’S WEAK ARGUMENT RE DEMON
First, he made an argument on page 4 that DemonOverlord was mafia because she said the following:
“Yes wjessop, we planned to bus you an hour in the game!!! Totally unfailing scum strategy!"
Y2K’s argument for why this comment was alignment indicative was this:
“I think she knows what ‘bussing’ means, it implies mafia going after mafia. It's what mafia always think about doing, and i can only imagine the kind of bussing the mafia are plotting in chat right now.”
This is a terrible argument. As I’ve explained, misusing a mafia glossary term is not alignment indicative. If anything, I would expect mafia to be more careful about a comment like that. Generally, I would expect mafia to be careful and calculated. And I have the impression that Y2K believes that in his heart of hearts as well. Nevertheless, he reacted with such certainty, calling Demon’s statement a “scumslip,” and positing: “i envision the QT thread discussing whether scum should bus DO now or not, with the decision based on which scum role DO has. but I won't get ahead of myself.” He said on the next page that he was 70% certain that Demon was mafia.
To me, the comment from Demon was a joke, it was not calculated, and it was not alignment indicative. Y2K latching onto that comment with such certainty suggests that Y2K is not engaging in a sincere scumhunt.
(b) Y2K’S REACTIVE OMGUS AT BALKI
Second, I am still shocked at Y2K’s reaction to me in this same timeframe. It is just about the exact opposite of how he reacted to me when I called him out on a similarly poor argument about Maniac when he was Town Y2K in MX12.
I challenged Y2K in my “six points” post on page 5 and explained why I thought his argument was weak. He responded by agreeing that his argument was weak, but telling me “those questions were pitiful” and proclaiming: “You’re on my radar now, Balki :)” which is where I’ve been ever since.
Y2K has since clarified a bit and explained that his reaction was more to the way I made my point with leading questions. But I don’t understand how the use of leading questions is alignment indicative. It is a rhetorical device. I could have said:
“terms like ‘bus,’ ‘wagon,’ and ‘anchor’ are lazily flung around here by both town and mafia as meaning all sorts of things. All three terms have certainly been “misused” in MXI and MXII. Demon’s misuse of the term is not alignment indicative.”
Instead, I said:
“Haven’t you heard terms like ‘bus,’ ‘wagon,’ and ‘anchor’ lazily flung around here by both town and mafia as meaning all sorts of things? All three terms have certainly been ‘misused’ in MXI and MXII. What was it about Demon’s early comment that persuaded you so much?”
Y2K has not explained how the use of this rhetorical device is alignment indicative. I’m a trial lawyer. I use leading questions all the time to make a point. So hang me.
(c) Y2K’S TUNNELING EFFORT TO GET BALKI TO CONTRIBUTE
Y2K’s repeated refrain to me for the last several pages is that I have failed to contribute, and failed to take solid positions. He hasn’t posted any evidence for those propositions; he’s just asserted them over and over. I just can’t imagine Town Y2K doing this. It seems to me to be so blatantly false.
I think I’ve been extremely active, and I think I’ve been a strong contributor. I’ve been over the thread several times; the entire thing. I’ve responded to questions and cases against me. I’ve pointed out arguments that I think are weak. I’ve tried to encourage people who are not playing very hard to play harder. I’ve tried to organize my posts coherently. I’ve set forth my thoughts on the Power Roles and how we should use them.
For Y2K to imply that I haven’t taken risks, or haven’t taken strong positions…I really don’t understand how Town Y2K could possibly hold that view.
For a while, I believed that Y2K might be reaction testing. I thought that he might carry on with his crusade to see who might take the bait and hop on the wagon. But I believe we’ve moved beyond any plausible reaction test. Town Y2K would not derail this thread for this long on a reaction test. He wants us to believe that he believes I am scum.
I don’t get it. I’m ready to vote.
##VOTE Y2K
NOTE: I am legitimately less certain about my other reads. But I agree with Y2K that more information about suspicions is generally helpful. Here are my thoughts
2. ESPI
I expect Town Espi to be a bumbling, insecure, frequent commentator, who is not afraid to post his thoughts, but is very insecure about their value :-) He is also quite introspective.
He has raised my suspicions for two reasons.
(a) ESPI’S EARLY POSTS IN THIS GAME ARE JOKING, AND CONFIDENT
Espi jumped onto the scene on page 1 with “*counts number of joke posts*” and “Wait ghug! Don't go yet! I was planning to copy your vote for D1 just like last time! :(” This does not strike me as our loveable insecure Espi. It just comes across to me as confident. Very different than would expect from Town Espi.
(b) ESPI DISAPPEARED, AND HE DOESN’T USUALLY DO THAT
Loveable, bumbling, talkative, Town Espi would not have disappeared so completely on Day 1. He loves Day 1. He always has opinions, and he offers them up, with a bit of a flinch, as if he isn’t sure he believes them himself, but he submits them for your consideration. I understand the lurking from so many people. It’s their meta, afterall; but it stands out the most to me from Espi.
My third point is not a separate reason. It’s an instance that I view as a nullity. I’m just addressing it because it has been raised in Espi’s defense.
(c) ESPI’S CORRECTION OF THE TRPRADO MISHAP DOES NOT STRIKE ME AS ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE
When several players (including me) bought the “hey TrPrado posted after the game start in the sign-up thread, but has ignored the game so far” line of thinking, it was Espi who provided the correction. He explained that TrPrado is not in the game, and listed the participants.
I’m trying to imagine how a Mafia Espi would react to that embarrassing display. I can understand the notion that mafia would want to allow that to continue for as long as possible. I can also imagine a mafioso’s desire to correct people on an issue that will surely be corrected soon anyway and gain some recognition for it. I just have no idea which way Mafia Espi would react, and so this correction is a nullity in my read of Espi right now.
3. GUAK
I expect Town Guak to be arrogant, to lurk for most of the first half of Day 1, to be stubborn and self-obsessed, and to read me as scum, come what may.
Ahhhh…maybe guak is town?
I’m really not sure about guak. That’s what makes his D1 meta so selfish and absurd. He hasn’t posted enough for us to draw many conclusions. But here are the things I can draw from his activity so far that raise my suspicions:
(a) HIS ENTRY POST ON PAGE 9 IS OVERLY DISMISSIVE AND ARROGANT, EVEN FOR GUAK
Guak enters the substantive discussion about 24 hours into the game with his list of “general game views.” Almost the entire list is dismissive. It seems to try to sweep away most of Day 1 like nothing important happened at all. Apparently, ghug is an asshole, per usual. Yoyo is scummy, per usual. BB is shitty, per usual.
The only substance at all is that HR is “surprisingly useless,” damian “looks slightly town” to guak, and “y2k seems town.” I agree only with his read on damian. I disagree strongly with his opinions on Y2K and HR. And I can’t combat guak’s reasoning at all because he doesn’t provide any.
(b) HIS REACTION TO BALKI’S CROSS-POST INDICATES TO ME THAT HE DIDN’T READ OR DIDN’T CARE ABOUT MY EXPLANATION
I wrote a long contributor/non-contributor post on 10 that was only up-to-date through about halfway down page 9 (Captain Meme’s post). HR immediately asked me about it, and I explained what I had done. (see bottom of page 10, middle of page 11).
Guak did not ask me about it. He just jumped to a conclusion that I was wrongly targeting him whereas he thinks he’s been active. See his posts at the bottom of 14 and the top of 15. Really Guak? Do you think you’ve been active prior to halfway down page 9, almost 24 hours into the game? (that is a leading question, Y2K…just a rhetorical device) That was the game state when I wrote that post. Even since that point in time, I struggle to observe any positive contribution you’ve made. No MVPs for you from me. But, more importantly, it’s pretty odd to me for you to be so self-deluded that you don’t just believe you have been helpful, but you cast your suspicions towards people who call you out for being unhelpful, because they just couldn’t be so dumb.
(c) HE IS MIXING UP HIS OMGUSs
At the bottom of page 14, guak says this:
“Why is that Balki? Because I think you are scum? Go shove your OMGUS where the light doesn't shine.”
He said this after I listed guak among my five scumreads at the top of page 14. I don’t understand how he could possibly view my read of guak as an “OMGUS.”
To that point, I don’t believe that guak had read me as scum. Guak, what am I missing.
Guak’s “reads list said this about me:
“BB is doing shitty proposals just like in every other game. That means that when he gets lynched for proposing stupid things he will haunt whoever led the lynch for the rest of all mafia games just like ha has haunted me.”
To me, that did not read at all like you suspect me of being scum. That read to me as you believing I was playing “like every other game.”
@guak, did you read me as scum some place that I am missing? How could my suspicion of you possibly be OMGUS?
Comically, guak votes for me on the next page and says I’ve been “focusing [my] tunneling efforts” on guak.
@guak, how can you possibly imagine that as of the top of page 15, I had been tunneling on you? That is completely absurd. I had hardly said three words about you at that stage that I recall. All I had done was list you among my list of five suspects. Defend your statement. It’s ridiculous.
4. TOEMATO
Not much I can say about Toemato, and I don’t have any prior games from which to draw comparisons. But I’ll say this: Toemato’s bizarre entrance, confused reading comprehension, and then complete disappearance ought to raise red flags from a new player if anything does.
The reaction I would expect from a new and confused townie to a poor start is that they would get defensive, ask a bunch of questions, maybe even apologize, and try to play the game. The reaction I would expect from a new and confused mafia member would be to run away in fear.
Toemato has made absolutely clear that he is new and not a particularly fast learner. But his reaction to scrutiny must raise flags. We cannot give every new person a free pass to be terrible. I expect that people who wander onto this site and sign up for this game to meet at least a low level of ability, and I expect them not to run away when confronted.
At the very least, lynching Toemato seems to carry with it the least risk possible of accidentally lynching someone who turns out to be a useful Townie.
5. SALADIN
I expect a Town Saladin to be stubborn, intelligent, somewhat confrontational, and to think outside the box.
(a) HE PLANTED A SEED THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH MAFIA SALADIN AND INCONSISTENT WITH TOWN SALADIN
It is possible that constant bullying from the likes of ND and guak has beaten Saladin’s nonconformity out of him. But he really does seem to have changed his style significantly. I’d expect that more in a game 2 than a game 3, and I don’t think Saladin changed his style at all in his second game (as a side note, Saladin and I both played in our first games together in MXI, played in our second games together in MXII, and are now playing in what is the third game for each of us here in MXIII).
Saladin still has his disdain for Day 1 certainty, which he’s commented on repeatedly. But he has a new concern to make his Day 1 vote “mean something.”
He said this at page 7 in defending his wjessop vote to bo:
“At EOD I want my vote to mean something, so I'll probably move to a major wagon if I'm not already on one. But until then, I do want my vote on someone who isn't contributing. If you want to policy lynch, I'd be behind that.”
Saladin, saying you want your Day 1 vote to mean something goes against the Saladin I know. Aren’t you such a huge proponent of the idea that you (and we) know nothing on Day 1. Through that prism, how can “mov[ing] to a major wagon” allow your vote to “mean something”? Isn’t this directly contradictory to the views you’ve espoused even in this game itself – that the mafia likely controls the Day 1 lynch, and picking at random would be more productive?
This comment to me seemed to be planting a seed to use to defend your later vote switch. I cannot understand a reason why Town Saladin would say something like that. Can you explain?
(b) SALADIN CAME OUT OF THE GATES WITH MORE CONFIDENCE AND BOSSINESS THAT I HAVE COME TO EXPECT FROM TOWN SALADIN
This statement has sent off warning signals for me, upon a re-read:
“I don't want a debate. I don't want a defense. I want contribution. My vote will sit on the person who has done the most to set the town back -- at least until D2, when we actually know something.”
This was in Saladin’s first post at 5. It is far more confrontational and bossy than I have observed from Saladin. Town Saladin suggests ideas and keeps pushing them along, but he’s not a rabble rouser. He’s not a cheerleader. This tone suggests to me that Saladin’s alignment is different in this game than in the previous two games I played with him. In both of those games, Saladin was town.
6. DEMONOVERLORD
I expect Town Demon to be peripherally involved, reactive, fairly self-confident, and not particularly careful.
I don’t have much of a meta-argument on Demon. I’ve found her gameplay in this one to be similar to her gameplay in MXII. I also do not believe that Y2K’s “smoking gun” attack on Demon was a bus attempt by a mafia partner, because Y2K’s tone was too aggressive and too certain to be a bus. He left himself no wiggle room, which is not what I would expect a Mafia Y2K to do so early in the game in a bus attempt on a partner.
But DemonOverlord appears scummy to me because she keeps following others on what appear to be easy votes with no explanation.
On page 3, Damian had taken wjessop to task early for joke posting. Demon chimes in with is:
“I'm getting those same vibes from wjessop as when he's been mafia the past two times. Short, nonsensical posts with quick accusations and absolutely no substance. Wjessop is already getting quite defensive and still continues to joke vote even when a moderately serious case has been set against him. Agreeing with damien's analysis right now.
[][]vote wjessop”
I disagree with her meta-arguments about wjessops’s play in earlier games, but I’m more interested in the fact that she jumps to this vote wagon after Damian starts it, and justifies her move based on “vibes.” It seems to me like a lazy attempt to get a real push going on someone when another player will have credit for leading the wagon.
We see the same thing on page 15. Y2K posts his case on Balki. Guak follows it up by jumping to the Balki wagon. And then Demon says:
“Yeah I don't think Balki has a good view on what he wants with this game, content with either him or wjessop as I both think they're exhibiting scum behaviour. For now I'll
[][]Vote Balki
and say gnight.”
This struck me at the time to be so similar to a move that Scum Bo_sox employed in MXI that was so infuriating to me. He joined a mislynch wagon on me on Day1 and then said he had to go. It is infuriating because he avoided being taken to task for hopping on the easy wagon with little justification. It seems to me that Demon may be doing the same thing.
The move is reminiscent of her reaction to the early forming wjessop wagon, and it seems to be very characteristic of mafia play. Mafia wants to make easy votes on townies that they won’t have to defend later because somebody else started and led the wagon. I don’t think anyone has exhibited those tendencies in this game as much as DemonOverlord.
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