TURN GRADES:

I'm doing this a little differently.

ENGLAND: C (a whatever grade)
FRANCE: B
GERMANY: D
RUSSIA: C-
TURKEY: D+
ITALY: B+

THOUGHTS AND QUESTIONS:

If France is aggressive now, Germany is in trouble. Germany cannot guarantee keeping Holland and Kiel and Ruhr. If Russia and France are working together, losing a center is likely.

Are we certain that England is indeed an ally of France? I don't see any reason to think so; France can turn London in an army just as useful as the army being convoyed from London would be. There are other more interesting/fun things to do, if England is willing, in comparison to sending it to the continent. I 100% know what I would do right now as France; I am curious to see what France does.

So is Germany in Ukraine to, I don't know, help Italy in exchange for help with Munich? I don't see a reason for Italy to be fighting Germany, but that's quite a risk for Warsaw. Russia in Warsaw or Silesia is bad news. Germany can now not guarantee better than an even exchange of centers with Russia. Maybe there's something to this move that I am missing, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me; Italy needs Germany to stay alive to stop France more than Italy needs the help.

I like everything France did except the move to Western Med; I'd have waited a bit to start a fight with Italy. But! France can help Turkey much more now than they could in a year, so it has some benefits. Unfortunately for France, Italy is probably looking at two builds. France can guarantee one build, but will need more to keep pressure on the south.

Italy's move to Tyrolia turned out to be important, but a move to Piedmont would make this a much different turn.

It's probably too early to be thinking about this, but: If this is a French solo effort, the fight becomes about the important stalemate centers. Tunis is probably too far, but France can try for Munich and from there Warsaw. Italy can move to stop that right now, but at the expense of gains against Turkey. Is Italy so worried about France that giving up Italy's own solo aspirations and letting Turkey into a draw is acceptable?

I've not looked long and hard at the board, but my instincts from a quick glance are these. In a straight race between Italy and France, Italy wins. If I was France I'd be desperate for a non Italian ally, and I'd be offering this ally all sorts of goodies in exchange for giving me a shot at a solo. If I was Italy I'd be doing everything I could to discourage a grand coalition against me. If I was England I'd be wondering who the hell made me a mod.

Bumpy

Bump

Fall 1906


FRANCE

The French assault on Germany continues and with excellent results. I like the way France has moved for position this turn. Only one build, but that is fine since Italy is preoccupied with Turkey. France has time to grind.

Notice how the French has made excellent use of his fleets to fill sea areas. I expect a French fleet in Skagarak on the next move, which will further tighten the noose around Germany's throat. France needs to cultivate Russia into an alliance where the two Great Powers extract Scandanvian centers from Germany's grasp. Germany's decision to continue his two-front war could be a beneficial one for France.

In terms of defense, I recommend A Marseilles followed by A Mar-Piedmont to keep Italians at bay. It may be possible to arrange a DMZ there, but it would be better to arrange a unit bounce.

GERMANY

Germany builds one this turn after taking Sweden from Russia. That's good, but I don't like the decision to keep fighting Russia. Chasing the St. Petersburg dot is costing Germany dearly. He needs to send units west and he needs to send them west urgently. But will he? If not, Scandanavia is going to crumble into French hands.

ITALY

A word here on tactics. Italy chose to support Serbia with A Trieste. That was a wasted move. A Trieste to Tyrolia coupled with the move of A Tyrolia to Bohemia would have been much better. A Tyrolia provides leverage into Piedmont. Not criticizing the move to Bohemia. I like that. But you need an army in Tyrolia to control Piedmont.

But there are two Turkish units on Serbia. Don't I need to order a support? Nope. Not when you are attacking both units from remote spaces. You ordered A Budapest to Rumania and F Aegean to Bulgaria. A supported attack on Serbia was impossible because of the other orders you wrote. Thus, A Trieste was free to do other things.

Your next moves against Turkey are probably going to have to be positional. The Turk is difficult to dig out without a fleet in Black Sea or an army in Armenia. Maybe you can solicit Russian help by offering support to Sevastapol. But in view of the German strategy of capturing St. Petersburg that may be unavailable. Additionally, the French are singing sweet songs to Russia about now and Scandanavia and revenge upon Germany may be a more tempting call than helping you with the Turk.

RUSSIA

Sometimes it is necessary to hold and wait. Germany seems hard-headed. You need to come to an accord with Germany. He took Sweden from you and now is pounding on St. Petersburg. Hang in there because at some point Germany will come to you with hat and hand.

On the other hand, the Frenchman is a good ally for you. He may need your help for two reasons. One to pursue a solo by keeping northern pressure on Italy. Two because Stp is a key center on the stalemate line if it comes to that.

TURKEY

Your chances of a solo in this game did not develop. You now need to play defense and hang in there against the Italian. If you can, you will likely survive and maybe attain a piece of the draw. I believe that is your best outcome barring a really, really long game.

I liked your attack on Aegean and you should keep both of your fleets. You and Russia need to stop fighting. You're only helping the larger powers in the game. You should assume Germany's days in Russia are numbered. If Russia and you cooperate now, that will mean further problems for Germany, which benefits France, which slows Italy. This is long-range thinking.

bump

Bumpy

Here are grades for the turn. Autumn 1906.

You may notice that three of the powers all got the same grade, a D. This is a shared grade. It's been clear what direction the board since Italy stabbed Austria. Russia, Germany, and Turkey had the capacity to change this outcome. Instead, they squabbled; Russia and Germany continued to fight, and I don't even know what Turkey and Russia are doing with the usually-moving-to-Moscow-but-sometimes-supporting-from Sev.

Similarly, France and Italy both got a B+. Neither of them has done it perfectly, but both are aggressively moving toward a good outcome for themselves; both have a realistic solo shot.

FRANCE: B+

France did almost exactly what I would have done, except I would have moved to Ska instead of Hel. But I think Hel is better since Germany is getting a build. I also would have done something more aggressive that let that fleet sit in Western Med. Being there is already an irritant in Franco-Italian relations.

France has a huge build coming up! Fleet or army?

GERMANY: D

France is in Ruhr and Hel, which is very bad, but you got a build, which is good. Unfortunately it's a center you can't keep if France and Russia work together.

Overall, Germany's whole strategy since the French attack began has failed. Either you make up with Russia, or you defeat Russia fast enough to be able to swing around and stop France. I thought France was stabbing Germany in 1904, so it's not like this has been a surprise. Guessing, the main problem is Germany's inability to cultivate a good relationship with Turkey.

Fortunately! Germany should be able to bring this Russian ulcer to a conclusion this year. That's two builds to replace the likely loss of two (three?) centers.

RUSSIA: D

Bad luck, friend. I would have tried moving to Warsaw, but it wouldn't matter except as it turned out to ensure Turkey didn't have a retreat.

ITALY: B+

I really like Italy's moves except for the waste of Trieste (as professor eturnage points out above). But in tactical approval, the self-bounce in Tunis is smart; even if France did support one in (which France should have done), then the French fleet wouldn't be in Tyr Sea and you've got two builds coming anyway. Also, a move to Tyrolia might freak out Germany; Bohemia potentially says "I'm here to help."

I don't see it as quite as difficult as eturnage does to dig out Turkey, but it doesn't really matter. Italy should have enough units to at least match France and continue to make gains against Turkey. An Italian solo will require either German centers or Iberia; Italy can choose to go for one, but not both.

Overall, I've thought Italy's play has been a little uneven, but right now Italy's had the best game. I wish the games I was in right now had gone so well.

TURKEY: D

You handled a bad situation about as well as you could have, but you are going down two centers. Long term, things look grim; without friends, you're in trouble, and there are no obvious friends to help. Sev won't last forever, and Italy has the luxury to take time. Your survival will depend on how fast Italy thinks it's necessary to eliminate you. I don't see things looking as good for you as eturnage does.

Bumpy

Bump. Builds.

Bump

That was a fun phase. Hopefully there is some good analysis incoming.

Interesting that Russia, Germany and Italy are now coordinating moves. It's a dear price Russia is playing for German and Italian good will. I wonder if it will be worth it.

So, France has won the north. Will he be able to get enough units in place to hold the south? Will Italy be able to iron out his moves to avoid more unnecessary delays? What position will Turkey take?

Quite why Germany seems so keen on discussing his demise in global I'm not sure. An attempt to encourage Italian assistance, perhaps?

Spring 1907

At this point in the game, with both Italy and France thinking solo victory, stalemate lines need to become a consideration. Unfortunately, most of the Hobby resources on stalemates are located at the Diplomatic Pouch website, but the url has expired and hundreds of useful tactical and strategic writings are unavailable.

I did find one article still on line: Stalemate Lines by Mark Berch. In the linked article, item 11, Berch says this:

“11.Raider. The most important tactical tool in preventing the formation of a stalemate line is the raider. The raider can do one or both of two things: (1) seize a supply centre (or two, or three) which is needed to support a unit vital for the stalemate line, and (2) cut an essential support needed for the stalemate line, or provide a new support for an attack on the stalemate line. But a raider is not necessarily fatal. There are many lines that guard a larger number of SCs than they need units to form it. If you have two extra units, you can afford to let the raider seize one SC, and dispatch one unit to simply follow the raider, attacking the raider's just captured SC every time he tries to take a second SC, so that the raider can never take more than one SC at a time. Dealing with the raider's direct disruption of the line is more complicated. This generally requires at least two fronts: one to attack the raider each season to prevent it from giving support, and the other to provide an additional support which may be needed, or to try to block the raider from moving into a vital spot. Unfortunately, there is likely to be more than one vital spot to guard, or more than one supporting unit which could be cut by the raider, so eventually the defenders will guess wrong, and the raider will have accomplished her task.”

Here, Italy will probably move F Tunis to Western Med next turn threatening to occupy Mid Atlantic. If Italy gets into Mid Atlantic, he has his raider.

Alternatively, France can do something similar by convoying A Marseilles to Tuscany. The latter move would create a minor headache for Italy, especially if Italy is prevented from building anything, which is a distinct probability. Defending against that possible move is going to potential mean France gains Piedmont if Italy plays it safe.

FRANCE

There is a lot of talk on the global board, especially by Turkey, about the Italian solo. However, I think France has an equally good chance under the circumstances. France will take two German centers this turn. One of those builds will have to be F Brest to defend Mid Atlantic. Probably also F Marseilles. Those builds will effectively shut Italy’s immediate western progress down while still allowing for munching on what’s left of Germany.

It will be interesting to see how France handles Germany here. He may want to temporarily prop up Munich. But how does he do that tactically without risking the loss of Ruhr?

GERMANY

If you want an example of some really bad strategy, look at what the German did this turn. Germany puts maybe his formerly best unit, F Barents into St. Pete(sc). It is useless now to support Norway from there and is two moves away from Baltic Sea. France could actually take Baltic Sea from Germany next year, which will seal the German’s fate as a relevant power.

ITALY

I didn’t like your reckless move with Ionian Sea. Do you realize the Turky could have taken Ionian last turn by ordering F Aegean to Ionian supported by F Eastern Med? The Turk in Ionian is terrible for you. You cannot afford to take that kind of risk.

Your diplomacy with Russia was good. It was nice he took Sevastapol off of Turkey. But Turkey still has two fleets and A Constantinople. You need Russia to move to Armenia now, but that is a difficult ask.

Your diplomacy with Germany is failing abysmally. Can you not convince him to stop throwing his dots to France?

Where are you getting your next dots?

RUSSIA

Good on you for getting a center. Is this a Russian-Turkish thing? I will laugh my a** off if you take Rumania from Italy or support the Turk to Warsaw. Either way, your joy in pulling it off will be met with an equal amount of Italian and/or German tears.

TURKEY

Keep playing defense. I like your global banter as well. It serves your purpose of creating the fear of an Italian solo, which is what you would like to further your diplomatic aims. I am smelling A Con-Bul and I will enjoy that move if it happens. Good little dipsey doo with a Russian diplomatic twirl.

LINK: http://www.diplomacy-archive.com/resources/strategy/articles/stalemate_lines.htm

Here is my analysis for the spring 1907 moves. This was a very consequential turn, and there are some things that need additional perspective from other observers.

GERMANY: D+

This is the move in which I am most interested, and I'd appreciate further analysis. Am I completely off base, or is this a poor set of moves? It seems to me that the handling of things in the east has been poorly managed, and Germany has been harmed most of all.

My guess here is that all this is worked out between Russia, Germany, and Italy. Russia gives up St P in exchange for Sev and a place in the draw. Germany moves to Stp without support in case it doesn't work (but why wouldn't it work?). Russia getting an army build in St P is much more useful for Germany than Germany getting St P. The real result is transferring a center from Turkey to Russia to Germany to France. Now Germany cannot hold Norway. Maybe Germany expect to lose Denmark anyway, and wanted a retreat open? Whatever the logic, now Germany cannot keep Norway and Kiel this turn, and Sweden and Denmark are likely gone next year. France maybe can't hold Kiel? Is that the logic?

My only assumption is that Germany demanded this because Germany does not trust Russia and Italy, and Germany is more afraid of Russia's continued hostility than of France's. (There's also the possibility that things between Russia/Germany/Italy are not quite what they seem, but we can consider that later).

Long term, Germany is very luck to still be in Munich.

FRANCE: C+

Things did not go well in the south this year, and things went quite good in the north. France will definitely take Holland and another Germany center or two. Potentially three builds! Tactically played exactly right against Germany. However, in doing so France will be hard pressed against Italy. Italy can cut support for the move to Piedmont or support a bounce with Tyr/Venice and ensure that France cannot build in Mars without the expense of giving up Piedmont. Italy also has the capacity to threaten moving a fleet to MAO, a disastrous situation for France.

This is the result of French decisions earlier, which I am not going to go back and find the specific season but which I remember bringing up. France would be much better off with Russian help against Germany (can always crush a small Russia later) while France was able to focus more on the south. Taking Edi in 1905 felt good, but it meant Russia couldn't stand up as well to Germany. As a result, Germany was strong enough to survive French aggression until Italy helped. France was perhaps surprised (at least I was) at how easily Italy was able to dominate in the south, or maybe was worried that Russia and Germany would later make up, or something else.But it turned out to be a bad decision. France won't get cut out of a draw or anything, but there's a serious chance that France's solo push will end up enabling an Italian solo push.

Getting three builds is good (though the more I look at it the less certain I am that you want to take all three of them now), and there's maybe not a lot you could have done differently this turn. The move to GoL may have been in expectation of Italy moving there and Ionian moving to Tyr Sea, which would look brilliant, but Italy's moves that happened were much more likely (I expected Ionian to support Tyr to Tunis). You could have taken a 50-50 guess on disrupting half of that move, to give yourself more time to get fleets to the south. The good news is that Italy probably will not be getting a build this turn. If you're smart about it, you can get yourself into position to turn that disadvantage around quickly.

If France has a solo shot, it requires 6 more centers (assuming three German centers are gone this year) and not losing any centers you've got now. That will be tough!

RUSSIA: C
(again this is for the turn and it doesn't mean Russia is in better position than France)

So you are staying alive. Way to go! It's tenuous. With luck you might even get a build, or this is all a ruse to make elimination easier. Either way, you're still in it now, and you have some good possibilities.

ITALY: B-

This is the other thing I was particularly interested in. Italy supported Russia to Sev this turn. Let's do some counting to see if this was a mistake.

Spring 1907: Italy supports Bul-Aegean, Rum-Bul, Gal bounces Sev out of Rum. Turkey retreats from Aegean to Smyrna.
Fall 1907: Turkey has to order Smyrna support hold Con, to protect from Bul+Aegean, so Italy orders Aegean to support Ionian to Eastern Med, which retreats to Syria, or is disbanded and rebuilt as an army in Ankara.
Spring 1907: Either way, now it's three Italian centers touching two Turkish home centers; Turkey has to guess right. Italy would also have the option of, if the army rebuilt, convoying to Syria to guarantee taking one center in the fall.

Overall, I'd prefer to be a beat ahead, even if it meant potentially being outguessed and losing the advantage. If Italy is going to have a solo shot, Italy needs builds. This means that a build is not guaranteed for next year without Russian help.

I don't know who earns the demerit for this, so I'm perhaps unfairly blaming Italy (since Italy made it possible). Given that Russia could not stop Germany from taking St P anyway, why didn't Russia move Moscow to Ukraine to take Sev in the fall? That eliminates the retreat danger and lets Rumania do something more productive.

TURKEY: D+

Failure to cultivate a better relationship with Russia has cost you a center. Way back in 1903 you took Sev, and all it has done (literally; you can go back and look at the map) is usually make things more difficult for Russia without getting you much benefit. It never supported Rumania or helped take a center, and it didn't get you meaningful German help because you never managed to get on the same page with Germany.

This game has been a good example of the fact that it's often more beneficial for you to let a neighbor keep a center. Both France and Turkey would be better off right now if Russia were just slightly stronger.

Gosh, I was thinking Turkey had done rather well. I guess it depends on the assumptions you make regarding the behind the scenes diplomacy and what you expect to happen next phase. Which is all very much up to interpretation. I'm not expecting what eturnage is expecting, at least.

Fall 1907

This is where Diplomacy can get tense. Including Munich, I count 16 potential French centers. It looks like Germany will be unlikely to build again. The French path to a solo will be through the north. However, a German army in Ruhr will make French progress slower. France must hold Kiel and Burgundy against Italy and Germany, while preventing a German raider behind his lines.

Meanwhile, the German-Italian alliance will press to eliminate Russia and Turkey. If that task can be efficiently executed, a French solo can be stopped. Then the question becomes whether Germany would choose to throw a solo to Italy or be satisfied with bean-counting and a piece of a three-way draw.

FRANCE

You gambled and lost with the attempted convoy to Tuscany. The decisions to go for it, and Italy's decision to protect against it, were high-level moves. As a consequence of the failed convoy attempt, France gains three centers but Marseilles is occupied. Italy's block hurt. France needed another fleet in Marseilles. Maybe the gamble was a bit too aggressive. You could have supported yourself into Piedmont, or safest of all, moved to Gascony. I don't know. Hindsight is 20-20. In the end, I cannot criticize you for boldness with little downside risk.

GERMANY

Things turned around fast. The solo you aspired to is dead. I think your choice of an Italian alliance here is reasonable. It seems your strategy is to kill Russia and help Italy kill Turkey. You aren't likely to build again. I think possibly F St. Pete is your best disband. You can retreat A Norway to Finland and use it to defend St. Pete from Russia.

ITALY

Great choice in covering Tuscany. Also, your diplomacy with Germany was excellent. You needed that build. F Western Med-Mid Atlantic, F Rome to Tuscany puts a lot of pressure on the French.

Depending on the Turkish disband, the tactical moves next turn are there to blow up A Moscow. From there, you take Sevastapol. Once Russia is out, the Germany units and maybe one of your armies are loosed for the western front. I wouldn't count on the German units lasting along the northern stalemate line.

RUSSIA

Your alliance with Turkey maybe comes a bit too late for you. At this point, elimination is in your future. How do you want to go out? Do you like playing king-maker? If so, you can help the French or Italian. You choose.

TURKEY

The mantra you sing to Italy is that if he doesn't stop attacking you the French will possibly solo.

bump

Bumpy

Bumpy

Once again I am way behind, but here are some grades with builds included for Autumn/Winter 1907.

FRANCE C+

I originally had laid out why I thought France trying the convoy was a mistake, but the advantage of it would be to potentially break Turkey out of the box. That would have been worth the risk, I think, since France isn't going to make gains against Italy otherwise in the south. It was a last-ditch effort to hope for Tunis and making Turkey into a useful ally, and while it's gone, it was worth the effort. The problem now is that France has to make sure Italy cannot get to Spain or beyond.

Well done in the north, except that Germany's willingness to give centers to Italy instead of you suggests that gains south of Scandinavia will be hard to come by. If it's a solo race, you need to get armies into place quickly. I don't see an obvious route.

GERMANY C-

I don't understand the continued aggression toward Russia. Did Russia just insist that he would never help you? Was the plan for Italy to bounce France -- if so, what was the expectation of the army now in Ruhr?

I'm guessing Germany doesn't expect to hold Scandinavia and just wants to get to a smaller draw as soon as possible. We'll know if this is the case pretty soon. This is a big risk! If Germany were larger, holding the middle ground between Italy and France and threatening to throw centers to the other might work, but Germany might be too weak for that.

ITALY: B

So, I guess it makes sense that you were worried about Russia and Turkey threatening Rumania, but wouldn't you have been better served cutting Sev, letting Germany get a build that he would use against France? Plus, Germany with a higher proportion of northern fleets (now at zero) is better for you, because if you fight Germany at some point, those fleets will be mostly useless. It's pretty unlikely that Sev would give up Moscow altogether, so maybe you could have forced Ukraine, with the plan of taking Sev yourself next turn.

So, while that's a minor thing, it gets to my larger concern about your turn: a lack of advance. Great work in getting in Munich; that may end up being the single most important move in the game. Smart bounce in Tuscany. Those two moves alone bumped this up from a C to a B. But everything in your east (Gal, Rum, Ser, Bul, Ion, Gre) did not move your game forward. You can logically explain why each of them was necessary, but as a whole, they didn't accomplish anything except the status quo. Turkey's four units successfully locked down six of yours. Now Turkey's three will use the efforts of five of yours. That's a bad ratio!

I'm a little surprised by the army build, but I guess you're aware your solo shot or stopping France's solo shot will lie in the north. Getting that army to Germany will take a long time, though. Can you count on Germany to hold Munich while you move your line of armies north?

RUSSIA: D-
TURKEY: D+

Your inability to work together as declining powers means your likely best case scenario is still a bad one, surviving to see Italy or France solo. Russia can at least hurt Germany a little bit in the meantime.

ckroberts gives a good review. Re Italy's lack of progress against Turkey... the stalemate over the Aegan Sea has been bugging me for a while. I nearly posted about it before the last move. Three fleets against two & an army. The solution is obvious.
Hypothetical. Fleets a, b & c face fleets x & y and army z
Attack that fails.. fleet a to Aegan Sea, support moves from fleets b & c
It fails because army z attacks one of the fleets giving a support move, and fleets x & y exchange support holds.
Obvious solution..change the attacking unit...so if the fleet being attacked by the army cannot give a useful support move..then make it the attacking unit and give two support moves from the other fleets, and move another unit into the spot the new attacking fleet comes from causing at minimum a bounce, or if it had a support move from say, army Rumania it would move into Bulgaria from Serbia or Greece.
Remember ATC's post about efficiency & my comments on ripple effect of lost opportunities ?
The failure to promptly capture the Aegan Sea has got to have an ongoing cost to Italy imho.

To the top!

Spring 1908


FRANCE

Good action in the north. I liked the Kiel gambit. Your moves are very efficient and that efficiency is causing concern in Italy’s mind. It’s still a race against Italy and you’re winning.

France continues to press his advantage there and race against the Italian’s effort to take out the Turk. It looks like the German is checking out of the game. Maybe diplomacy in that direction could be fruitful. He feels abandoned by Italy. Perhaps you can develop a toady in Germany.

In the south, you need to keep Marseilles open for another fleet. You can order a self standoff. But this is exactly the time when an unwanted support could be directed at the self-standoff. There is a tactical means to disrupt it, but there is an Italian counter-move that could make defending Mid Atlantic and Iberia interesting.

GERMANY

Sometimes in Diplomacy, just as in real war, a player becomes demoralized. The German orders here reflect the disinterest of a player whose position is in decline. If you’re in a game like this, watch for listlessness in how the opponent is ordering his units or in the degree of enthusiasm for his communication. Anticipate and take advantage. Here, three of the German units were ordered to hold, including the critical A Berlin. It did not even offer a support for his Italian ally in Munich.

A Ruhr to Belgium. Really? Not a fan of the order. You knew Belgium would be covered.Maybe Burgundy supported by A Munich would have made things very interesting. As it was, A Ruhr to Bel left Italy hanging out to dry and ended up getting the unit piffed. Since your home centers are all occupied, that is a lost army you will likely not rebuild.

ITALY

Time is running out so you gamble with losing Ionian Sea to Turkey. But it pays off and now you need one more move to lock down the coast of Turkey with two fleets. That allows F Ionian to dance into the fray with France. Hopefully, it can get there soon enough to make a difference.

Your diplomatic effort with Russia was good. But is the German feeling neglected? If all of you hope to stop the French solo, you need to get on the same page. It looks like you will finally collapse the Turkish defense. Will it be on time to stop the Frog?

RUSSIA

You are going to be a key part of the stalemate line against a French solo. You need to build armies and study the stalemate line that runs from Moscow to Munich. The quicker you and Italy can eliminate the Turk, the better for you. Italy will have to give you the centers so you can build in Moscow and maybe Sevastapol. This will save a lot of time.

TURKEY

You held on and keep fighting. Maybe if at some point you might have thrown an attack at Ionian. That might made Italy Italian more paranoid about F Aegean to Ionian; F Eastern Med supports that attack. Taking Ionian would have completely wrecked the Italian defenses against France and been a good bit of fun if you’re a vindictive sombitch like some of us. As it was, your orders for F Aegean and F EME got predictable and Italy made its move.

bump

Here are my grades for spring 1908. We have a very exciting next few years coming up! I may miss grades for some of it traveling for both the Christmas and New Years holidays, but I'll try to have at least some commentary.

GERMANY: D-
When I saw these moves, I think I said "yuck" or something like that out loud. Like eturnage says above, occasionally it feels like a player just gives up. But I am going to be optimistic here; sometimes unhinged optimism is the best way to go through life. Losing the army in Ruhr isn't a big deal because you're not going to be building this turn, anyway. There is no reason that you cannot work something out with France at this point (unless of course France refuses, but there are some good pitches available to you). Italy is a realistic solo threat, probably much more likely than France is right now. We're at the point in the show where a single turn of throwing centers to one power or another is decisive. If you want to make draw, you need to have key centers along the stalemate line. Where would those best be found?

ITALY: B+
I think MajorMitchell's comments above are good. Italy is doing very well: If I were taking over one country, I would want it to be Italy. But the leisurely pace of eliminating Turkey has slowed Italy's ability to move fleets west and armies north. The role that Russian army plays is going to be interesting. If Italy had moved aggressively against Russia a year ago, Germany would be in better shape and it would be an Italian army in Armenia.

That said, it feels like Italy really took my advice about using units (or it's just a coincidence but I like to feel important). Everything did something useful. I like the move to Piedmont and the opportunities it affords for messing with France's potential build in Mars. You can bounce France out of MAO a really long time, until you get a different fleet over there and can take GoL or France is in a position to force it.

RUSSIA: C
Ideally, Germany would have moved away, but even in the worst case scenario (Germany taking Moscow, guessing wrong with Turkey and getting bounced in Ankara (assuming you try for Ankara and not something else)), you're still alive. I am pleasantly surprised.

TURKEY: D
Unless this is a very clever ruse on your part and a suicidal one on Russia's, things look bad. Russia and Italy can guarantee the loss of one center. You can still slow down Italy's ability to sends units west, and you can maybe hope for some minor changes in alliance structure which keep you alive a bit longer.

FRANCE: A-
Here's why I like France's moves so much. Germany and Italy assumed France would do the safest thing, support hold Kiel with Denmark/Hel/Hol, or cut Munich, or something that involved holding steady this turn until another unit was on the scene. So France took a calculated risk and force Ruhr, a sizable risk since losing Kiel would have meant disbanding that army (and Munich/Berlin supporting Ruhr to Kiel would have bounced the move, since France didn't cut Munich's support). This is a place where the advantage of playing against two players helps; the Italian-German coordination is not everything it should be.

That said, I disagree with eturnage. If it's race, you're not winning. You've got to get armies along the stalemate line faster, either to hold Germany/Russia in Moscow and Warsaw or to take those centers yourself. You've got fleets in position to start taking control of the Baltic area. Also, while it's not an immediate issue, you're not guaranteed to be able to hold on to Mars and Spain forever. You need to be planning moves out to make sure you're not going to have problems with Italy moving into MAO or Spain.

Bumpy