Here's another question (although answering it could influence the game again):

Is it possible for England and Italy to arrange a two-way draw? If so, should they try it, or are they better off going for a solo, even if that's a long shot?

To get a two-way draw, they'd each need 17 SCs, and all their units arranged in such a way that they are both permanently stalemated with no chance of getting an 18th SC.

Possible, perhaps, but so unlikely it doesn't really bear thinking about.

I think that's a good question and worth discussing at this point.

Right now, France is probably breathing a sigh of relief after the last turn. England was too slow in taking MAO, which gave Italy time to get fleets over to support Spain and MAO. England's solo chances are now slim to none, while France's survival is much more likely. The likely outcome here is a three way after Turkey and Russia (who is inexplicably still alive) are eliminated.

But is it really?

Logically, a country pursuing a solo will push up to and including the point where no more progress can be made in order to exhaust all possibilities for victory. On the other side of that equation, the defenders (France and Italy) will arrange their units into a position that makes advancing impossible for England. At the point where England can no longer advance a stalemate will be reached.

However, this does not represent the best possible outcome for anyone on the board. Stalemates can oftentimes be brutally inefficient - in many cases, surviving powers will be shoehorned into the draw by virtue of geographic luck. In my experience, 9/10 times this lucky country is France, and this game is no exception. France is the strongest country in the game for many reasons - it is a corner power, it has two easy builds in 1901, it has multiple avenues for growth, etc. - but one often overlooked reason is France's strategic position on the traditional stalemate line, which runs from Spain to St. Petersburg by way of Munich and Berlin. In the endgame, it is very difficult for two larger powers to extricate France from his Iberian stronghold without taking the risk of upsetting the fragile balance in the southeast corner. With only units in Spain and Portugal, France can oftentimes force their way into a draw in a manner similar to a keystone in a stone bridge - try to remove it, and the entire structure can collapse.

As I mentioned earlier, a stalemate can be an incredibly inefficient way to end a game. In terms of both Ghost Rating and point distribution, a two center France and a 16 center Italy can have the same outcome for the game as a 17 center England. Obviously, neither Italy nor England will be happy with this arrangement. It raises the question, though - do you allow France to survive out of honor and reward him for a well played game, or do you risk upsetting the delicate balance of a stalemate to cut him from the draw and obtain a better outcome for yourself?

Also, this is a WTA game, so it's awfully risky to try for 17/17 when the possibility of the game swinging to 18/16 is very scary.

Bump

Spring 1911 retreats are done. Onto Autumn 1911.

Bump.

Bump. Fall turn progressed to retreats.

Retreats done, Builds done.

Bump. Autumn 1912.

Bump. To anyone still watching, the game will be taking a short pause over the Christmas break.

Spring + Fall 1911

My apologies for not following the game as closely as I could have been. My last round of analysis was for 1910, so I'll catch up by reviewing the 1911 turns.

1. Italy. Another good year. Somehow, Italy started the year with 12 centers yet only 11 units, so, after capturing Constantinople, he earned 2 builds, which turned out to be armies. That's a wise choice. Considering the fact that France and England have teamed up to lock down the Mid Atlantic and the critical centers in Spain and Marseilles, the only path for expansion must come from the east.

2. England. The disband of Gascony allowed England to rebuild an army and hopefully send it to a more useful home. Vacating Brest, which England managed to grab hold of in the Spring, and taking a resounding hold of the Mid Atlantic certainly bodes well for France, but France still doesn't seem to trust England. If England wishes to force a draw with Italy while supporting France as the buffer state, it would be best if England had a totally trustful France on his side.

3. France. It looks like England trusts you and wishes to bolster you, so my advice is to agree to clear terms of peace and enjoy the pending draw.

4. Russia. That army in Warsaw is still hanging in there.

5. Turkey. Turkey's supply center count dropped down to two, as he lost Constantinople. Fortunately enough, Italy is mostly using fleets to attack the Turk, so his conquest may be clumsy.

I'll hold off on commenting about 1912 until the Autumn moves go through. It is worth mentioning that everybody except Italy has voted Draw, so Italy is going to be the one to decide how long the game lasts and who survives.

Have the professors been following the Global Press at all? Specifically about the draw situation.
I am interested on their thoughts regarding 4/5 peoples willingness to draw while Italy claiming 5 people is too many (implying that the 2 straggling countries be cut out)

I have been part of such discussions in the past (both as the lead country and the straggler being cut out) and still find it a little hard to navigate it properly.

What can Turkey and Russia do to stop being cut out?
What could France and England do to safely facilitate such a deal?

Regarding another topic of discussion in the SoW Global chat - 4 of the 5 players have voted to draw for the Holidays but one has not done so. I will assume this unwillingness to pause has nothing to do with diplomatic tactics (which would be against site policy as I understand it) and will rather assume that it relates to said players concern that he will be unable to return from a pause.

I have been asked if I could override this person and pause the game as the TD and I am inclined to do so. The pause will last until the 29th, as the players discussed in global. At that point I will unpause the game and play can resume.

Merry Christmas.

Bump.

As a reminder, the game will be unpaused tomorrow (Dec 29th).

Dyager asked whether a draw should be called now, or whether it's best to whittle out the little guys.

My answer is it depends on the type of player you are. The way that I play, if a country helped me to build my empire, I'm pretty generous about rewarding them with a spot in the final draw. The gunboaters on this site likely have a more cutthroat approach. You can develop your own approach to the game and come up with a general philosophy or rule of thumb on the topic. In many press games, including some that end in a solo, the result of the game is the product of a discussion, and that discussion can get dicey. Understandably, some players would rather a big draw rather than run the risk of playing on longer. Again, in situations where I'm the last holdout on the draw, my goal, to not appear to be a complete jerk, is to retain the countries who have helped me and try to eliminate the countries that have opposed me.

Bump- game unpaused, fall turn progressed to retreats.

Bumpity bump.

Spring + Fall 1912

The School of War game which went quietly on hiatus over the holidays has just as quietly started back up. The current 1913 season is looking awfully suspenseful, with Italy's capture of Munich looking scary. But let me step back to the 1912 season.

1. Italy. In the spring, the Italian and English battle lines got messy, but by the fall all was sorted. By fall, Italy really improved everything. His Turkish attack is proceeding well. His watchful presence in the western Med waters is actually easy to underestimate in its importance. And he has a lot of armies ready to finish off Turkey and invade Russia. In the winter adjustment, Italy built an army in Venice. Easily the best choice.

2. England. His most important, and long overdue, decision this year was to dispense with the Russian. I'm questioning England's decision to squabble with the Frenchman so seriously. I don't see England as really having any solo possibilities, so antagonizing France seems like an indefensible gameplan. On the plus side, England's 2 army builds were wisely chosen.

3. France. It seems like you're the middle man in a draw that nobody wants you in. France is doing a good job holding out, and he has managed to convince the Italian that his survival is essential in guarding the stalemate line. Unfortunately, that piece of diplomatic press hasn't reached the British, so France is stuck fending off his pink attackers.

4. Turkey. With Russia out, you've risen in the ranks. It looks like the end is soon coming though.

And a gracious and appreciative farewell to Russia. Thanks a ton for playing and letting us publicly comment on your game.

F 1912

Wow, this game is still going on?

Some fairly big developments since I last checked in.

- England lost Munich! With the number of armies that England has, I'm seriously surprised that he let this crucial center go. With only five fleets, his chances of a solo are almost zero, and his chances of taking Munich back are also near zero without French help.

- Italy is sitting at 15 centers with Sevastopol falling next turn, putting him at 16 in the spring. I'll also express my surprise that FRANCE IS NOT ATTACKING HIM!!?? And England is still attacking France!!?? Did we change the victory conditions to 34 centers? At this point, an Italian solo is virtually assured.

Bump - Spring '13 done.

I was a little surprised that England took this moment to take Warsaw.

At that point wasnt Warsaw one more army in the area to prevent an Italian solo? England with 1 more army on the Mainland seems less important to cause than a Russian army on the front lines of the Italian offensive.

Although I suppose it could have been done in hopes of a 3 way draw...but then why keep fighting France?

Bump

Spring + Fall 1913

This was the most critical year so far. At some points this game, England had the possibility of pushing for a solo. If his conquest of France was swifter and his defense of Moscow stronger, he would have easily won the game.

Then, the game settled into a relatively standard draw between England and Italy with France standing as a buffer in between. Strangely, England didn't seem to realize that the game had switched from the first scenario to this one. So, he spent far too long continuing to attack France when he should have bolstered France to set up for a peaceful draw and stalemating Italy.

Now, the game has turned into a clear, all out Italian solo. There were some big mistakes this year which allowed all of that to happen.

1. Italy. A well played 1913 for you. Italy managed to keep France fighting against England, supporting his fleet into the MAO. My question on the topic of France, though, is why didn't Italy sneak into Marseilles when it was unguarded? He managed to get Munich in 1913, bringing him to 16 centers, but capturing Marseilles would have brought him to 17, leaving him only a Warsaw or Berlin or Spain away from winning. If England somehow manages to defend Warsaw and Moscow (which I don't see happening), Italy will be kicking himself for not taking Marseilles when he could. Of course, I know that that scenario is not too realistic, but, in the path to a solo, it's okay to play some hard offense.

2. England. Now that Italy has a solo coming, being in second place doesn't much matter. And it's worth thinking about the strategic and diplomatic decisions that have dropped England from clear first place and a likely solo threat to losing his bet in a Winner Take All game. This is only a 5 buy in game, but when you consider the fact that you invested four months (October to January) fighting it out, it's awfully disappointing to see things end this way. The nail in England's coffin was failing to defend Munich. That's just inexcusable. Let me mention that England did an amazing job playing a slow and dangerous game. He built lots of armies, even though the temptation for a British player is to build loads of boats. But our English player realized that there's no point in having 10 boats if they end up sitting in useless places like Skagerrak when he could have armies in places like Warsaw. Unfortunately, his army presence in Russia leaves a lot to be desired, and his failure to defend Munich and make peace with the Frenchman in 1913 is just a shame.

3. France. I gave most of the blame to England for losing this game, but, even if England was attacking you, defending against the Italian should have been top priority. Even if England grabbed a center or two off of you, it's better to survive in a draw with just one center than to lose to a solo. As inspiration, check out this game gameID=128876 . This was one of my proudest draws, because I was able to survive with 1 center (Ankara, of all places), as two big powers on either side of me tried to make a run for solo. In our SoW game, if you started letting England take your dots, Italy would have been forced to vote Draw for fear England took the solo.

We said farewell to Turkey this game. Thanks for playing; you hung in there awfully long. Well done.

Maybe I'm missing something, but surely Italy has at best a 50/50 chance of soloing, and maybe worse, with perfect moves by England and France?

In a similar vein, it seems to me that perhaps England's worst move in the whole game was in Spring 1913, which was convoying the army to Belgium instead of to Norway. Do you agree? Why was that bad?

Italy has a chance, its not zero, but not 50% either. Italy probably won't lose Munich this turn, but he can't hold onto Berlin for long either. He'll need some very good moves to win this game.

Thats true, it will take some mistakes to tip the board one way or another. That being the case, the students should try to get in touch with their TA's to triple-check their orders. The game is about to be decided one way or another.