will there be another one of these?

Yes, but there's no telling when. We regularly organise SoW games to help new players improve their game.

However, we do have a mentor program: http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?viewthread=1522670
I definitely recommend signing up for that.

I agree with you Octavious. There is less reason here to kill Bo off. It's SoW so we're all going to be chirping about solo threats and stalemate lines when they arise. That's why I wrote, "In the absence of advice from this thread, his presence would make achieving a solo more difficult." I sometimes lack clarity in my writing. Apologies.

webDipDummy00 has a very solid record. If he/she can keep up those win and draw percentages, the sky's the limit.

Their reliability ranking is less than stellar, however.

I wouldn't worry, eturnage. I've got a cold and comprehension is at something of a low ebb. Having said that, this thread can be as good at confusing matters as explaining them :p.

bump

And bump again! A phase has been concluded and we wait the comments.

France ordered 3 units to move. 2 did and 1 of them was in the wrong direction.

Spring 1905

AUSTRIA

Not a fan of the Austrian tactics. A Budapest was surely going to be cut by the Italian attack so it made more sense to use that unit as the mover. On the other hand, A Galacia was a better unit to choose for the support order. Retreat to Vienna and live to fight another day.

Also, not a fan of the strategy. What was Austria attempting to do here? Stop the Turk from taking Rumania? That was pro Italian. Maybe Austria is an Italian toady. That could be and maybe it is a way to stay alive working for Italy against Turkey. My style is more swashbuckling. I don't see much difference between a survival, draw, or elimination. Therefore, I tend to play for maximum revenge when I get effectively stabbed. I don't want the stabber to profit, or at least I want to minimize his profits. A Bud-Vie; A Gal S Bud-Vie would have been more effective at protecting Vienna. But maybe Italy told Austria he could keep Vie, which is why he attacked Rum. But A Bud-Rum; A Gal S Bud – Rum would have bounced out the Turk . . . if that was your objective.


ENGLAND

What else? Who is calling the shots for the English army? Not England I'm betting.

FRANCE

Looks like France has decided to attack Italy maybe next spring. He chooses Germany as his alliance partner. So an FG alliance. I see this as the most stable alliance in the game, which is great for both France and Germany. I smell Fleet Marseilles but not for a while. You need to work on Germany diplomatically. Don't let him turn to the warm arms of Italy who has a ton to offer starting with an alliance against the Turk.

GERMANY

Kudos on convincing Italy to dmz Tyrolia. I don't know how you did it, but that was awesome. Nice Turkish diplomacy and execution of tactics in Russia. Russia figured to order A Moscow support War so the risk of having Livonia cut was low. The move was the risky choice here. A Prussia could not have been cut so maybe the safer choice was to move A Livonia to War. But it worked and now your position is even better. The one other choice might have been to take a risk and move F Baltic Sea to Bothnia where it could have helped in the north. You will need to redeploy it to get St. Pete. Congratulations on the diplomacy with Turkey convincing him to help you take Warsaw. The other half of the deal is to support Sev-Moscow in the fall. Will you stick with it? Good diplomacy with the French, cementing a FG alliance. You get an A for the year so far, but it's just the spring.

ITALY

I don't really understand why you didn't order A Tyrolia to Vienna. Moving out of Tyrolia looks like you are currying favor with the Germans. Do you think Germany will turn on France? Maybe you're hoping for a IG, which is a good strategy consideration for both Germany and Italy. France and Turkey, are you paying attention to this?

RUSSIA

Diplomacy failed with Germany, England, Austria, and Turkey. Nobody helped you and everyone else attacked. Good tactics to defend Norway though. Your days appear numbered. Read what I wrote about the Italian and German strategy and reach out to the Turk. There isn't any good reason he is helping Germany . . . unless Germany has promised him Moscow in return.

TURKEY

Two Italian fleets on Aegean Sea. But you have decent position in the Austrian theater and you can make it tough for Italy to dig you out. It looks like Italy may have turned on you. You need to exercise caution. Pray the German keeps his word because you need to build another fleet in the Med. I think you again need an ally. Austria, Russia, and France seem like a good candidates. It's not over with Italy either considering the FG seems strong. It's hard to break up stable alliances and Italy may not be able to get Germany to switch or France to stab. You need to figure out why Austria is helping Italy. Really, you should have the Austrian as your toady and not the Italians. Did you try to talk to Austria?

Russia is going down too and you could slow his demise. But you also need Moscow.

Write to France. You really need him to hurry up and launch on Italy. Italy seems set on attacking you, which is just what France is probably waiting for. Just hope Germany doesn't spook the French. You have a lot of diplomacy work ahead.

Bump

Here are grades, to emphasize, just for the turn. One big picture thing: Diplomatically, we could be looking at a big 2v2 fight with some combination of France/Germany/Italy/Turkey fighting the other two, or a 3v1 where everyone is jumping on Italy or Germany. In such a case, Russia would be in a really good position to swing the balance of the contest. But we aren't. That's why diplomacy matters! The best tactics in the world can't save you if all your neighbors are attacking you.

ENGLAND: C
Not a lot of options. Still alive!

FRANCE: C-
I do not like what France is doing here. It's very unlikely that anything bad will happen if France is aggressive with Germany. Should Italy take that chance to attack Iberia, Turkey is strong and even if friendly with Italy now, Turkey is about to run out of room to grow. It's not that France is doing anything wrong, if we assume France's goal is to get out alive. But this makes it look like we're going to be cruising to a big boring four-way draw, instead of France making a serious solo effort. There's a chance this is setting up a stab or something, but I don't think it was planned very well if so.

A good general Diplomacy rule: If your immediate neighbors are on the mat, don't let them get up if you can avoid it. France and Russia had Germany in a squeeze, botched it, and now Russia is going to be eliminated while France has too strong a neighbor to go for a solo.

GERMANY: A-
The flip side of my comments for France. Germany keeps France friendly, keeps Italy friendly, has a collapsing Russia to eat. I suppose it's possible there's a crazy French stab coming, but it's not likely to work with Germany getting a build and Russia losing at least two centers.

TURKEY: C
You set up a safer border with Italy, so, cool. I don't like that Italy has the southern fleet advantage, but not a lot to do about that right now. Unlike eturnage, I'm not sure this isn't a planned switch of Greece and Rumania, but Italy getting a build probably isn't good for you, but if you do indeed get Moscow and have a friendly Germany/France, you're OK.

ITALY: C
What eturnage said about Vienna! Austria with a forced disband would guarantee your getting two builds. I can only assume that a. Germany insisted, and/or b. it's some (real or imagined) sop to Austria. The way things worked out, you cannot guarantee taking Vienna and holding Budapest.

On the other hand! You've got options with what to do vs. Turkey, and that's a much more important question than if you get Austria out this year or next year. This turn is an OK turn if you use it correctly.

AUSTRIA: D+
Those weren't great moves, but there aren't any great moves available to Austria. You should have know Italy would be trying for Budapest, and it was a reasonable guess Galicia wouldn't be cut, but things aren't really easy for you.

RUSSIA: D-
I think the most striking failure in this game is Russia's inability to maintain a good relationship with France, which likely costs Russia the game. Tactics on the turn were fine, but selling France on a war with Germany should be more successful than this. Russia's only hope now is to find and exploit divisions among the four strongest powers, who are all right now Russian enemies.

bump

Bump new turn

This is an interesting stage of the game. Austria is defeated & England soon to be gone unless Bo can manage a miracle.
The builds will be interesting.
I'm not sure that Germany is in a super strong position. Yes France and Russia blew their chances to crush him earlier, but if France pulls his finger out diplomatically he is still positioned well. France should, imho put great effort into his diplomacy with Italy.. Rattle that "Beware Turkey" alarm. If France can create an alliance with Italy and Russia against Germany and Turkey he still has a chance to win this, imho
Alternatively France could make an alliance with Germany.. So France has choices that perhaps the others do not.
An alliance between Italy and Turkey is full of risk for Italy.. Too much risk for the possible gains.
What can an alliance between Germany and Russia offer either player ? Not much.
Italy and Germany.. Has possibilities but how can Germany offer Italy any immediate help against Turkey ? Apart from making it harder for France to attack Italy by engaging in a full on war with France.
I'm looking forward to seeing the builds..they will give an indication into the intentions of France, Germany and Italy in particular. I'm also looking forward to watching the next two years play..those four moves..Spring, Autumn, Spring & Autumn will be critical. Remember ATC's comments about efficiency of moves.. Mistakes, wasted moves will have huge costs over the next two years imho for players who make them. Avoiding mistakes and wasted moves combined with clever anticipation of the strategies & tactics of rivals over the next two years, linked to good diplomacy offers great rewards. So four four players in particular, those with France, Germany, Italy and Turkey, imho, the next two years are the time when you & your tutors will be really tested. Bon chance.

For the turn! These have to be quick because I'm in a hurry. I feel like there was, except France and Russia, a lot of treading the water this turn.

FRANCE: B+
I like the stab on Germany. I feel like Russia surviving longer is more valuable to you than a center you can always get later. Builds will be fascinating! I don't want to tell you want to do, but I know what I would do. I kind of expected France to force North Sea; I'm not sure what was better. France can force North Sea now.

GERMANY: D
I guess I get why you tried for Sweden again, because people make mistakes, but it was very likely not going to work. You could have offered to support France to London, and maybe encourage him not to try for attacking you. Demanding a bounce with EC would have given you much better options if France did stab.

In your previous grades I noted you were a bit out of position but you were probably getting a build. I was wrong!

ENGLAND: C
I guess. Still alive. Some fun possibilities if Germany and England can work together. Not a lot going on right now.

AUSTRIA: F
Why did you move Galicia to Rumania instead of Budapest? I did not like Austria's "on the way out" moves. Maybe there was something behind the scenes.

TURKEY: C-
This is a bullet-dodging grade. What would you have done if the support of Sev to Moscow went through, but Russia tried a crazy cut of Sev and ended up taking it from Ukraine? Why didn't Aegean cut Greece or support Con to Bul for a potential bounce? What if France had moved to Eastern Med? Whew.

RUSSIA: D+
Smart tactically, but still bad diplomatically. Russia has new opportunities now, though, with the apparent Franco-German war. The problem is that Germany is going to need a lot of convincing that taking Russian centers is less valuable than gaining Russian support. I assume we'll find out with builds.

ITALY: A-
You have a big decision! Will you try to take out Turkey, hoping you can do it fast, or turn on France and help Germany? Try both? You got Turkey to cut Galicia, apparently, which is great work.

Something different this time.

USING HOBBY STATISTICS TO MAKE DECISIONS IN DIPLOMACY (the graphs referenced below are found at this link: https://wordpress.com/post/gamecockfootball.wordpress.com/4323 )

The School of War game continues. I'm writing about this Fall 1905 turn because it brings into focus an interesting strategic choice intersection for Italy. 

Just a bit of background. The Italian formed an alliance with Turkey to stab and eliminate Austria. Italy has now stabbed the Turk (6), who is still a viable power and who occupies the strategic corner of the board.

Meanwhile, in the west, England is on the cusp of elimination. France has just stabbed Germany. In my view, there are three major players in this game. Italy (9), France (8), and Germany (7). Italy faces a choice of which of the warring western Great Powers to support and how fervently will be Italian support.

How to make that choice? Diplomacy Hobby statistics help. Keep in mind that stats are but a guide. A solo can be achieved without compliance with the numbers. Diplomacy games, like economies, are heterogenous. But the data should be considered.

Below are three graphs used to illustrate how one might consider statistical factors in planning an Italian strategy. The chart below shows the Great Powers eliminated in Italian solos. 

GRAPH ELIMINATIONS IN ITALIAN SOLOS

Austria is dead which is great. Eighty percent of all Italian solos involve dead Austrias. Who next to kill to improve Italian solo chances? Obviously, that target would be Turkey, a decision this sharp Italian has already made. 

Great Diplomacy players are skilled at managing events in all theaters. Even theaters in which they no longer operate. Italy has no units in the west. But the west is vitally important to Italy and events there will impact his opportunity to solo.

France has the upper hand against Germany at this point. Germany, while still strong, is at war on two fronts with Russia and France. Possibly, France has an English toady besides. Germany could be quickly eliminated if Italy helps speed that process. Is that a smart course for Italy?

COUNTRY WIN PERCENTAGES WHEN GERMANY IS ELIMINATED

The data above suggests that would be unwise for Italy to attack Germany. Italy's chances of a solo bottom out when Germany dies. Considering the current diplomatic situation, a German elimination is much more likely than a French. 

What happens to Italy's chances when France is eliminated?

COUNTRY WIN PERCENTAGES WHEN FRANCE IS ELIMINATED

Based on the data here, Italian solos decrease in likelihood when either France or Germany dies. This leads me to conclude that Italy's choice here should be to come to the aid of Germany. Maybe Italy does not even insist on Munich.

Italy's chances for a solo increase best by killing Turkey and keeping France and Germany locked in a wrestling match for a while, neither gaining an upper hand on the other.  

Based on this analysis, Italy should insist on Russia disbanding his northern units, including his fleet, and promote Russia joining a southern campaign against Turkey. In exchange, Italy makes Germany give Russia Warsaw. An Italian mediated peace between Germany and Russia needs to happen at this point in the game for two reasons. One, Russian help will expedite the Turkish demise. Second, Germany can neutralize the French stab and that helps Italy in the long run. There you have it, Italy. 

Thank you Joshua McOwen for a brilliant piece. A Look at the Statistics of Diplomacy, Joshua McOwen (May 2011)

Sorry, bad link above. Here is the correct one: https://gamecockfootball.wordpress.com/2017/12/02/using-hobby-statistics-to-make-decisions-in-diplomacy/

Ummmmm...could Prince Villhelm's tutor please explain to young Villhelm the convention regarding finalising Retreats reasonably quickly to move the game along... 27 hrs should be adequate to decide upon a retreat... Young Heywood has finalised his retreat. If the German retreat was finalised the move would be processed.

Don't worry, Major. I've got this :).

Students should be aware that there is no convention on finalising retreats. If it is not beneficial for you to do so, don't do it. Your job isn't to make life easier for other people, but to win the game.

It's worth bearing in mind that some players will use a drawn out retreat phase as diplomatic ammunition against you, so you have to balance that against the potential gains you might make from more negotiation time. As a matter of course I always use these opportunities to set the game phase change time to something convenient to me and my sleep cycle.

I said above that Italy should ask Russia to disband all his northern units, including F Nwg Sea. However, I could be wrong about that. There is definite merit to Russia keeping the fleet and disbanding an army. That fleet determines control of North Sea. Is there a more important space in this game at this point in time? Maybe Russia a genius to keep his influence. He wields tremendous leverage with that one fleet.

Well I have to defer to Octavious the Oracle of Sage advice. Perhaps convention was the wrong descriptive term. However I would suggest that many experienced players of the Diplomacy caper do appreciate it when Retreats and Builds moves are conducted expeditiously.

bump

Bump as it got down to the second page of the forum threads.

Bump after crazy turn!

Bump

Further Example of how Hobby Statistics Help Us Devise A Diplomacy Strategy
Charts and Links are at this link: https://gamecockfootball.wordpress.com/2017/12/08/further-example-of-how-hobby-statistics-help-us-devise-a-diplomacy-strategy/

This post, like all the other School of War (SoW) tagged posts, are part of a live demonstration game hosted by WebDiplomacy. There is a corresponding thread in the forum for public discussion of the game. You can select all of the SoW posts on my blog by clicking on the tag SoW at the bottom of this post.

The last post here analyzed the game from the perspective of the Italian player and suggested a strategy by which Italy might improve his chances to attain a solo. Here, we will look at the same question from the perspective of Germany. 

Germany was stabbed by his former French ally, who has now revealed his secret weapon--an English toady. However, the Frenchman misordered and the English army never landed in Belgium where it might have been a disruptive force.  As a result of the misorder, Germany significantly improved his tactical defensive position against France. 

Italy has moved an army into Tyrolia. This is Italy's most influential unit. The order written for Army Tyrolia regulates who is winning and losing in the war between Germany and France. The placement of that unit like Tony Soprano holding a cocked gun to Germany's head and asking for favors in exchange for help . . . or hurt. Army Tyrolia makes Germany's first order of diplomatic business facilitating Italian happiness.  

On the diplomatic front, Germany must also sow discord to keep France and Italy from allying. To France, Germany writes about how the ongoing war with Germany will only benefit the Italian in the long run and cost both of France and Germany on a strategic level. Germany should also anticipate that France is offering Munich to Italy.

To Italy, Germany points out that there is a French fleet invading the Mediterranean Sea. That fleet could move to Tyrrhenian Sea or Tunis because Italy needs his eastern fleets for the Turkish naval operations. Any builds for France, due to Germany's weakness, could mean more fleets in the Med!

Aside. France made a strategic blunder by moving to Western Med. He should have negotiated with Italy a DMZ. Because Italy is still at war with a strong Turk, there was little risk Italy would break the DMZ. Maybe France just intended to bounce units in Western Med like last move, but now France has created a new potential enemy in Italy just when he needed Italy's help against Germany. All students should review the Diplomacy Academy video unintended antagonism by former World Champion Face-to-Face Diplomacy player Chris Martin.

Germany has something positive to offer Italy. He can order Army Ukraine to Sevastapol. That order cuts potential Turkish support for Rumania. If that support is cut, and Italy writes the right set of orders, there is nothing Turkey can do to stop Italy from taking both Bulgaria and Rumania. The two new builds allow Italy the option of building two fleets and movement to the western Mediterranean even if France moves Fleet Western Med to Tyrrhenian Sea. 

Joshua McOwen's brilliant A Look at the Statistics of Diplomacy (May 2011) is a must have reference for aspiring Diplomacy players. If you hope to improve your game and you're not using McOwen's charts, you're short-changing yourself. The information there will give Germany some ideas about his strategy.



The first thing to note here is that Germany tends not to achieve solo victories as often when Turkey is eliminated. Therefore, by helping the Italian as I advise above, Germany effectively reduces the probability of a solo. Ironically, France has a similar interest in keeping Turkey alive:



So here Germany might find some useful common ground for a strategic discussion with France aimed at ending the war between them. As it is now, Germany has no choice but to help Italy wipe Turkey off the map which decreases the odds of either a German or French solo victory.

Stats can be a very useful tool, and thank you to eturnage for the links, but I urge you to use them with caution. Nobody knows the specifics of your game better than you, and no two games are the same. If the stats are conflicting with your instincts, I'd favour your instincts. Let stats advise you, by all means, but never let them dictate your strategy.

Personally I can't stand the things, but I reckon I'm firmly in the minority ;)

^^^ Of course this is true. ^^^ They are only a guide.