Spring 1910
With not much changed since last turn, I'll start off with uclabb's question:
"Was the move to Ukraine good? How about Burgundy? How about Brest?"
The French moves this turn look to be an attempt to both protect its home centers and consolidate its defense. Covering Bre prevents an unlucky retreat in the off chance the move to ENG is successful, and supporting to Bur means that its unlikely that any home centers will be lost this turn.
All the professors have stressed that players need to be aware of the path to a solo. For England, he's probably not going to advance any further beyond Moscow, so 18 will need to come in the west. In this case, Portugal, Spain, and Marseilles are the probable targets. This means one of two things:
1. Hold Portugal, Spain, and Marseilles at all costs.
-OR-
2. Take Munich.
At this point in the game, holding Por/Spa/Mar is far from guaranteed, especially with the dearth of Italian fleets on that side of the board. It is inevitable that England will break into the MAO, and when that happens, Brest will fall, as will Paris, and France will be reduced to F Por, F Spa(SC), and A Mar. Mind you, there are worse positions to be in. However, with only the Italian F WMed propping up Spa and the Italian A Pie supporting Mar, something has to give, since that defense relies too heavily on guesswork to hold back the superior English fleet.
The better option here is to take Munich. An experienced French player, in this scenario, would realize that Bre and Par are a lost cause. An experience Italian player would also realize that Turkey is boxed in and can't break out of its corner without getting incredibly lucky. All three moves mentioned by uclabb, then, are bad. Here's how the board should look this turn:
FRANCE:
A Ruh
A Bur
A Mar
ITALY:
A Tyr
A Boh
A Sil (assuming A Boh s A Gal - Sil)
With those units in position, not only falls next turn, but with Italy's units in place in Boh and Sil, it can be supported for the foreseeable future. With Munich gone and disbanded, England is looking at a maximum of two more builds, which isn't enough units to retake Munich. This also forces England's hand, making him take Warsaw for the build, which then destabilizes his eastern front by making that (retreated) A Sil shift away from Munich. He no longer has enough units on that side of the board to effectively hold his centers. Provided that Italy can get another fleet into North Africa, there's the stalemate.