Why is getting things out of you like pulling teeth? IF that's all you suspected me for the whole time you should have said it pages ago. You still haven't actually explained your opinion on brainbomb.

Brainbomb has that effect on lots of people; it's not all that weird.

@ND: krellin may very well be scum, but none of the reasons you offer point to that in my opinion, because they are all things krellin does as town too. The one thing that makes me suspect krellin a bit at this point is that he seems to be going out of his way to defend brainbomb, either for buddying purposes or because he's a teammate.

@bb: if you were Mafia, why would you want to protect the Ringleader in particular? It seems to me the Ringleader is the prime candidate for bussing, since he takes a little bit of decision power away from every other Mafia member but brings nothing to the table. Unless you know that he's a valuable player, worth keeping because of that. Can you explain?

@teacon, why were you confused about the meaning of WIFOM when nobody had used that expression before you brought it up? When I read that question from you I got the impression you were playing confused rather than actually being confused, was I wrong?

@xor - if you excuse my behavior and don't see me as some because this is how I play, then how can you accuse me for saying BB isn't scum because I said he is playing exactly how he plays always. You are using inconsistent logic

The real question is why don't any of you question ND? He comes out and accuses me of doing something that he knows absolutely is characteristic of my typical behavior, and yet uses very normal behavior as an attempt to Define me as scum. ND knows better than this Kama therefore it is a ploy to try to smear me as scum. Either and he is incompetent, for he is trying to accuse me as scum for my normal behavior because he thinks he can get away with it, just like Y2K did. This ought to raise a red flag for anyone that is truly searching for inconsistent behavior and scum oriented decision making

@krellin, I'm not excusing your behavior, I'm just saying it's normal krellin as far as I can tell. But defending brainbomb doesn't seem normal krellin to me.

I'm defending brainbombs because there is no reasonable excuse to accuse him of some Behavior. Brain mom is doing exactly what he does which is you wild s***, make those are chains of accusations, whatever to try to provoke conversation and get people to react. His strategy is, in fact, very much like mine in terms of playing a psychological game with people. That's why I am quote defending him unquote because I see nothing particularly scummy about his behavior at this point. Much more questionable is somebody like in the accusing me for behaving exactly how I behaved for years on this site and pretending to think it is scummy behavior. And this judgment is specifically and designed 2 make my normal behavior appears to be bad. That is BS andi s scummy much more so than brain mom should be accused of being scummy for behaving exactly how he behaves.

Ducking phone autocorrect....

Lol "Brain Mom".

@xorxes - Good question! I checked again to see where I saw the term; reedeer used it on the first page of the game. Since then I've been given two definitions for it, and of the two I favor "wine in front of me" because I grew up with the movie Princess Bride. I assure you that I am genuinely confused (never played before, actually), but I’ll try to contribute a little bit more or better.

@all: Here’s a note for the sake of transparency: My methodology (look at *past* votes and hard results) doesn't really permit me to make an informed decision until day two, but I still have to vote today. Thus I will probably end up arbitrarily. I’ll prioritize anyone who uses vulgarity, because I don’t want my workplace firewall (I’m at a school) to flag webdip as inappropriate. Barring actual vulgarity, I’ll probably vote for someone who’s been lurking, since they’re not contributing much. Lowest post count gets my vote? Any thoughts on that methodology overall, or the need for arbitrary votes on day one?

@krellin / @ND: I may be missing some not-obvious level of communication here, but it seems like your discussion generated more heat than light. I guess I don’t understand how to infer so much from quick or “over-the-top” reactions, since people are capable of lying or lurking. I eagerly await seeing it demonstrated.

I thought krellin’s use of <soft kittens> was a hilarious way to sidestep the vulgarity problem. To be honest, it seems like he’s generating a lot of noise, first at one, then at another. Seems like “hunting.” That’s not behavior I’d expect from mafia. The same read goes for ND, who came off as much more reasonable the whole way through, and is probably likewise hunting. But then again, my methodology should rely on hard data like voting patterns, so none of these reads can really be reliable.

Seems like bb is being abnormally quiet, which is consistent with his claims of a new play style. Could also be that he doesn’t want to get lynched, and talking too much this morning seemed to work against him in that regard. Ob_Gyn and Xor have also been helpful at asking good leading questions and stepping back, which is a different playstyle entirely. I have no idea how to read if he’s mafia or not. Chaqua and HR have been *mostly* silent. I’m not sure what to make of the lack of information about them.

vote "brainmom" :)

@xor - I'll be away from the computer for a couple hours, leave a message and I'll get back to you later be back later.

@Xorxes: "they are all things Krellin does as town too"

Okay, I've been a player in a game with Krellin once. It is true that I have seen him go after other players in the style he is using with me (aggressive, angry, nasty). That is consistent.

Yet, I don't remember the amount of inconsistency. Let me explain, if you look at his statements on me they are filled with them. He makes up a statement about me saying he is mentally unstable. He makes up a statement in which I am saying he hacks the website. He continually says he is going to leave the thread during our exchange and then re-enters 10 minutes later. My posts are right on the same pages and I say none of these things he attributes to me so why the need to make up things and attribute them to me? That is not pro-town play, sorry.

Are these things all things Krellin does as town too because I don't remember that. I remember questioning if he reads the thread in the past game I played with him, but I don't remember ever questioning Krellin over false statements he attributes to others and that is something to be concerned over.

Teacon that doesnt count as a vote.

@HR you said there is nothing of value in the early going on Day 1. Then also said not to use gamblers fallacy but thats not actually the core of my argument vs OB at all. I think hes flat out lying and pandering for votes. Had you read my posts you would see that.

Also your lack of participation smells scummy. Defending yourself sloppily by claiming you dont think the early going is important or yields much is a lie. You know given the numbers so far at the very least 3 scum have voted if not all 6. Would you dare to agree on that assessment?

Also @HR your limited scope of interest in the game tells me you dont take your wagon seriously so now I have to ask: What team are you on and why are you just sitting by as a bystander?

##Vote HR

I dont care if you are the pope or gordon ramsay you arent special and you dont get to coast. Explain your malaise or get lynched.

@teacon, thanks for your answer, my suspicions of you have been assuaged. You're correct that "wine in front of me" is the correct one, the other one was something made up as a joke, I assume. Arbitrary votes are not a good idea, they give Mafia a good excuse not to justify their votes. Even a weak reason is better than giving no reason at all.

@ND, I'm not an expert krellinologist and I don't want to discourage you from keeping an eye on him. I'm actually surprised he didn't notch me for suggesting there was something fishy in his defense of brainbomb.

@ Brainbomb - the accusations of "gambler's fallacy" refer to your vote for HR, not your case against OB_Gyn. You committed the gambler's fallacy by suggesting that HR has never been mafia before, so he must be mafia this time.

@brainbomb - what have I flat-out lied about?

@ghug - "His voice sounds more like diplomacy press than natural talking right now, and I think there's a reason for that."

What does this mean? I also invite you to speculate on the reason.

No they actually dont. He said my case on OB_Gyn_Kenobi was purely gamblers fallacy.

Recall last game guak accused me of being different and id never been scum before therefore I was scummy.

Nobody repudiated guak last game for those statements other than myself who used it as a defense.

HR was Gm this game and had to have noticed my comments so he and OB are both caught in a lie. Im telling you something is not right with him this game.
Also wether its against the spirit of the game to combine gamblers fallacy its dishonest to label my accusations as irrelevant because the truth is even in a randomized game a law of averages still happens eventually.

If I play 15 games of mafia in a row it is almost a statistical impossibility I would be a VT all 15 games even if the game sizes varied, the PRs were diminished and maf team sizes you still have a law of averages catch up.

THESE FACTS ARE IMPORTANT and should never be dismissed. Even in randomization there is a logical eventuality. Only 2 veteran players on this site have NEVER been scum HR and Fluminator.

"Only 2 veteran players on this site have NEVER been scum HR and Fluminator."

That's textbook Gambler's fallacy right there.

Also fact. We should consider every player based on behavior Jamie. textbook schmextbook

Brainbomb, if you spin the roulette wheel nine times, and it comes up with number 36 every single one of those times, when you spin it again for a tenth time, the chance of spinning a 36 yet again is exactly the same.

The fact hes never been scum before and is playing lurky and markedly unhelpful and dismissive tells me he has something to hide.

That is, if the roles really are determined randomly, which the GMs have assured you is the case, then the fact that HR has never been scum gives you NO INFORMATION WHATSOEVER about his potential role in this game. His chance of being scum or town is unaffected by previous spins of the wheel.

Analyse behaviour? Yes.

Infer "facts" from previous distribution of roles? No.

I think the point brain was that what has happened before in the assigning of roles in these games, and what is destined to happen in the future in assigning roles in these games has absolutely no place in the calculation of the probability of which role HR or I was assigned in this game.

Flip a coin 1000 times and if it comes up heads 999 times, the chance of heads or tails on the next flip is...50:50. It doesn't matter that it's been heads 999 times. The chance that heads comes up 10000 times in a row is minuscule, but at the time of the flip, the chance of heads vs tails is still 50:50. At the time roles were assigned in this game, I had a 6/22 chance of being scum. So did HR. So did you.

Exactly, OB.

No Jamie. you are diluting my arguments down to the only part of them that is a gut feeling. You could by the same stroke imply i'm scum two games in a row like OB did when he said my defense of chaqa was me helping a scum-mate. Reducing my questioning of people down to being a fallacy is incredibly effective scum strategy. Now do you think HR has contributed today?

Brain, are you saying that you think HR's play is dramatically different than it ever has been in any game you've reviewed, and that he's never been scum in any game yet, thus you postulate that the new and unique behavior is due to him having drawn a unique role for himself in the history of his game play here?

Because that is a sound argument, but I didn't get that from what you've posted.

It didnt bother any of you when guak accurately combined statistical stratification of past role assignments and concluded both my behavior and odds of being scum were elevated.

Im telling you scum seldom give away much day 1 so we need a better system. Much more gut feeling motive driven system based on past meta, behavior, demeanor and ability to communicate
HR failed in every one of those categories was dismissive and acted as if he was exempt from interrogation and you both cajoled in the process.