@Y2K,

Here's the thing -- I don't know who is town and who is mafia. I have some theories. I've already shared some thoughts, and I'll surely present more detail well in advance of tomorrow's vote deadline. But I'm not ready to make a push on anyone yet. I hope you trust me when I say that I won't warrant suspicion by not taking strong positions.

In the mean time, I want more information, and I'm trying my best to get that information.

@Damian: Your reads are full of nulls, and slights. They are also low on substance or any type of actual firm commitment. Also how come every single person on your list has a modicum of explanation to it except ghug?

I reread all of Yoyo's day one posts in M11 and M12, and here is the one pro-policy post that he made.

"I've been trying to policy lynch guak since M7" (pg8, M12)

This was in response to Flum suggesting that Guak be policy lynched, but Yoyo didn't even follow up on this.

@Balki, your list is shitty, and I'm not your MVP, so your MVP is shitty too. That is all.

@ND, "mild" means "mild". I didn't count your questioning of DL as him getting attention because it was over the stupid Prado thing, which is stupid, just like the "mild" thing. That is all.

@SS, nobody's gonna get modkilled for an unvote. An hour is plenty of time, and usually most people are on at the deadline. That is all.

@all, I'd like to hear more opinions on using the Vig as a second lynch. Do people think it's a good idea? Would people prefer to do it day 2? Should him hitting a PR really be a worry, seeing as a PR forced to claim is a PR neutralized and soon dead anyway? Is an hour before too short? Too long?

@HR - I think you'll find that LyLo doesn't always happen. D1 does. Also, if we can get lurkers to contribute now, we'll have a better idea of whether they're scum if LyLo ever does come.

@ND
Yes, we haven't even made it 24 hours yet, I don't have strong opinions about everyone. I have no idea, I guess I forgot to include ghugs explanation, before moving on to the next person. I have since corrected that oversight, you can find it in my response to y2k about my reads.

it's fine to not know who is town or scum. none of the townies know for sure. i don't know for sure that you're scum, i don't know for sure that DO is scum, or that wjessop and ghug are town, but i have my opinions and i'm sharing them. my vote won't be moving off of you until you start doing that. what more information do you absolutely need from others to feel comfortable simply sharing an opinion? you say you've already shared some thoughts, please reiterate. simple statements, "i think X is scum, i think Y is town", reference the observation that leads to the opinion. stop letting others draw conclusions from your observations.

^^ @balki

I've spent the last hour and half or so reading through and have made the following notes into my Word document, which I'm now sharing with you all:

Page 1
-Consists of joke-posting between myself, DL9, ghug, and, to a lesser extent, DO and Espi.
-First serious post of the game comes from Balki (the only serious post on Page 1)

Page 2
-Balki also posts the first serious question of the game: "@CaptainMeme, what's your Internet access situation for this game? What sort of participation should we anticipate?"
-Yoyo drops a vote on meme and leaves.
-Damian makes a scum read on wjessop for joke-posting in the first hour of the game.

Page 3
-DL9 offers some serious posts
-DL9 calls on yoyo and y2 to step up their involvement

Page 4
-Page 4 is notable for a substantial and early post from uclabb.
-ND also makes a large deposit on Page 4.

Page 5
-Balki makes the largest post of the game so far, substantial, thoughtful.
-SaladinSmith jumps into the game to essentially repeat some comments made by others than votes wj and leaves.
-Maniac arrives and posts a large but seemingly obfuscative post about a reaction test.

Page 6
-Page 6 mostly consists of a weird debate between Balki and y2k, instigated by y2 voting for Balki because "he hasn't really done much", which I find odd because Balki seems to have contributed the most so far.
-Page 6 also contains Toemato's first interaction with the game, where he seems to just make up a load of nonsense about ghug, without reference.

Page 7
-Yoyo returns to the thread to comment that he needs to give OB a lot of +1s.
-bo posts a list of questions for various players, pushes the conversation forward.
-Chaqa posts a vote list and damian takes the opportunity to push for votes on wjessop

Page 8
-Most notable for HR becoming involved in the game with a substantial reads list.

Page 9
-damian once again trying to push for a wjessop lynch without any new reasons why
-ND returns to the game with a large post pushing on many players with questions and discussion, this is helpful to town.

Reads

Balki -- Town -- As a player in this game, I really appreciate Balki's presence -- right now, whether he's one of us or not, I think his questions and discussion are helpful to town, because so far his input has been making people focus, providing direction, and pushing people.

SaladinSmith -- Slight Town -- I think he's just a lazy Day 1 townie -- his Day 1 as a VT in M12 was not particularly inspiring either, although it's worthwhile to note that at least he tried much harder to convince people and be original in Day 1 of M12 -- what exactly has SS contributed so far in M13 by comparison? Disappointing display.

Espi -- Null, for now -- An interesting quote from Epsi on Page 2:
"Trying to see what exactly I want to do with my role, and trying not to talk as much as I did last game. I hope to come across much more clearly this game"
Is this Espi subtly role-claiming? what exactly does he mean be this?

bo -- Null -- nothing much to add here.

Maniac -- Null, but handsome -- I'll wait to see what more Maniac has to offer beyond his "reaction test".

ghug -- Slight scum -- guak posts on Page 9 that "ghug is being an asshole, nothing new here." but I actually don't agree with this -- I think ghug has been quite restrained in this game so far, almost pleasant, or charming; and I find this disturbing. If there's one thing that this man taught me when he was my master it was never trust a ghug with a silver tongue. I plan on following that advice.

uclabb -- Slight scum -- appears on Page 4, involving himself in discussion on VTs claiming PRs; says that Epsi "comes off poorly" and promises "more later"; reads damian and wjessop as town and says that attention should move away from the damian/Do attack on wjessop. Interesting that uclabb essentially wants to close discussion on this. Other than this, uclabb has hardly contributed at all, so it raises my suspicion that uclabb would make a necessity of entering the discussion only to make this particular point.

Yoyo -- Slight scum -- drops in on Page2 to vote for meme and then leaves. Has hardly involved himself in the game other than to joke-post and jump on the comments of others. Anyone for a slice of hubris?

Damian -- Scum -- has made a number of references to people "being offline" or "currently online right now" (pages 2, 5), which seems slightly redundant; I don't if he just doesn't realise that people leaving themselves logged in on mobile phones can show people as available when they're not really there. This is old news and I'd like to see damian stop relying on this phony evidence.
More importantly, his scum read on me for joke-posting in the first hour seems to be only one of two possibilities to me: either a serious case of Buzz Killington or a devised scum play to try and get me lynched (more below). He criticised me on Page 2 (Page 2 I exclaim!) for "All while failing to seriously address any ideas that were brought up by other players." but the only serious post that had been raised was the singular offering from Balki.
Damian has been slowly building up this inflated, exaggerated nonsense on me -- it seems so intentional and leading that I can only consider him scum right now.

DemonOverlord -- Scum -- Oh, DO. DO was keen to get involved as soon as the hour struck for game start, making some joke posts and then gleefully joining damian in a witch hunt on me for making joke posts. (This may be a case of do as DO says not as DO does.)
Her comment on page 3 that wjessop posts "one word posts that are full of fluff" is competely nonsensical and is clearly the thought process of someone typing in an excited rush. She adds on page 3 that damian made "serious accusations against" wjessop, which is just laughable considering how dull damian's case was (a case that centered on joke posts in the first hour of a game).
Since she was rightfully called out for this quite quickly and easily by myself and others she has completely disappeared. I have a strong suspicision here that DO came bounding in to this game very excitedly because she has a fun mafia role; she made a mess of joining damian and voting on me; and so now she's lurking away and deciding in her scumchat how to proceed.

So far, I'm thinking the mafia team are trying to spin a Day 1 lynch on me as an easy target because I was scum twice in a row in M9 and M10 and they're banking that this will be fresh in people's minds. What I'm reading so far is that damian and DO are potentially teammates, and they've been told to by a more experienced player on the mafia side to pour salt on me; and my reckoning is that Yoyo is their ringleader.

so tl/dr my reads are:
Balki, DL9, HR = town
SaladinSmith, ND = slight town
Maniac, Espi, bo = null
ghug, uclabb = slight scum
Damian, DO, Yoyo = scum
guak = who?

@ghug - lots of people have been saying that they can't be around for EOD. Apparently it's after midnight in the UK. This was a big issue in the sign up thread. I do think your idea could be really helpful, but we need a good number of town around after the vig shot for it to work.

@Ghug: I guess we will have to agree to disagree because I believe there is some validity here especially after finding a contradiction from my line of questioning. I'm not going to debate you over the origins of a word nor am I going to continue to allow you to derail the thread over this. I have said that I will write more about this in my reads list and inject some analysis on this subject matter. That will have to suffice for now.

@HR, yes, guak joined the game and provided some substantive thoughts. This post about activity levels took quite a bit of time, and I had to keep going back and updating based on people jumping into the game while I was going. For example, I moved CaptainMeme from Useless to Unafraid after he posted. Then I just stopped going back to check if anyone was posting in the interim, as it was just taking to long. So consider my post to be up to date, through CaptainMeme's first post on page 9. Guak moves off the Useless list with his entry into the game after that.

@Y2K and Damian, my list is not a reads list and does not purport to be a reads list. I want the entire town to participate. I think that achieving this goal is perhaps the most important thing for town at this moment in the game.

@SS

Lylo not always happening isn't the point. Mafia's influence is at its strongest when the mafia:town ratio is at its lowest. Would you find it easier to herd 10 sheep, or 150?

When scum make up ~25% of most games, and yet have been lynched 50% of the time D1, clearly "nobody has any idea D1" isn't true.

Balki, if you are town, I'm sorely disappointed with your apathy towards giving actual opinions concerning your observations.

@wjessop

Ah good, that's more what I expect. You seem to explain a fair amount of your reads; but you've plonked DL & Me as 'town' without any explanation there; why is that?

Also, regarding the vig: I think it's better to just fire at night. EoD's, whilst chaotic, give tons of information; and you should shoot with as much information as possible.

@Wjessop.
To correct your description of events. I a) am not currently voting for you.
b) have not built a case entirely around joke posts. My current case against you is based entirely off of your voting record and that you've only been showing up to defend yourself.

While I don't appreciate you misrepresenting my case. Since you have made the effort to make a solid contribution, I can only assume you were unable to for a variety of reasons earlier, and only now have the time. Which is perfectly reasonable.

You might not be scum after all. Amend my read on Wjessop to null

@Balki

Ok, understood. What do you think about guak, then? I know you love to go over what he does (or doesn't) do.

Espi's post on pg5 strikes me as weirdly forced and serves almost no purpose. Just five paragraphs of filler with a message inside saying "you shouldn't vote this early." WTF Espi? Explain a.) why you made that post and b.) why you think voting early is a bad idea.

DO first saying that the bussing 'slip' "was a joke" and then "it was a brainslip" is weird, even if y2k's reasoning behind the slip wasn't great. Y2k is far too sure that DO is scum, though.
Saladin's voting suggestion is bad but also typical of Saladin.
Balki's scumread on y2k is weird, and so is Balki backing out of the argument by saying "I don't want to be side-tracked by this. I don't have opinions on lots of people. I told Demon what I want her to do in the next 24 hours, and I think she bears some scrutiny. When I have a position on Demon, you'll know it." and y2k responding "fair enough."

Wjessop saying "I did not vote for ghug or DL9 when they voted for me" as justification for his defense, considering that ghug and I both jokevoted him for posting first, is super weak.

Toemato's reading skills aren't great so far.

ND saying he "doesn't buy" explanations for everyone on the TrPrado wagon and then not really scumreading anyone for that is weird.

I don't understand why Damian would post a reads list with so many weak reads/nulls that also calls all lurkers scum.

@HR: Fair point -- but I had nothing more to add on you or DL9 from my page reads, because you guys haven't posted enough beyond what I mentioned. Your serious posts, between you, have been helpful to town and pushed debate along; thoughtful and moderate; that would be my description if I broke it down individually for each of you.

@damian: back track all you want, but your "case" is there for every one to read. you can't backtrack from posts on this forum, they're permanent. I'll be quite clear about this: I don't trust you and I don't think you've been helpful to town. In fact, you've been intentionally and openly obfuscative, exaggerative, and judgemental.

If you're town, try to be less judgemental and more thoughful in your approach to the game, please; and if you're scum, prepare to die.

@DL
To help me solidify my own thoughts and to encourage other people to post their reads. Given that a number of lists have been posted after, I'd say it achieved the later.

I don't understand why you would expect strong reads at this stage of the game. Hopefully if everyone shares their thoughts on people some one will point out something that lets me turn those null reads into actual reads

@DL9: Fair enough if you were jokeposting, but ghug felt so moved to vote for me that he reiterated his vote a second time. FYI. A joke laboured, perhaps.

@Y2K, I know you're taking the position that you're disappointed in me. You've spent a sizable portion of your game telling me how disappointed you are in me. It seems odd to me that I am the source of your distress. Have I truly been the most disappointing? Has my performance been the biggest letdown?

Also, do you happen to recall what event triggered the rather large change in your attitude towards me? As it happens, I believe you were the first person to townread me, and I believe I was the first person you read at all. You became disappointed and aggressive towards me after I called out your "weak argument" (your words, not mine) regarding Demon Overlord.

Is it not useful and pro-town to point out the weak arguments when you see them? Does it cause you no self-reflection to consider that I became the target of your disdain when I pointed out your weak argument?

I'm not quite ready to draw conclusions, but my biggest suspicion right now is that Y2K is mafia.

@DL: "ND saying he "doesn't buy" explanations for everyone on the TrPrado wagon and then not really scumreading anyone for that is weird."

Point me back to my reads or where I scumread/townread anyone? Oh, I haven't put out my first reads list yet.

Do not mischaracterize my point. I said I don't buy that YOU confused two players because their names start with "T".

@Balki @ND @HR
et al

As it stands, I think we have 2 clear choices for lynch with maximum potential scum flip in DO and damian.

I'd be interested to hear what you think about this.

@Wjessop
You are right my case is there for everyone to read. The last thing I said about you is this, also on page 9, my case at the top of page 9 also has nothing to do with your joke posting. And everything to do with your behaviour since then:
"At this point I'd say his lurking is worse than that of most others. Because chances are he is reading the thread. Otherwise how would he know to keep returning to defend himself? Active lurking is a sign of mafia players, generally, since they need to keep the heat off them, but don't want to actually expose their own opinions on other players.

Its possible he's also just been tired, (it was 2am) and happened to log on during a break at work and responded. I'm not set on him being scum. I haven't even put up my vote again for him yet. Largely because I want to give him a full 24hours to contribute productively. Since it might just be he's only had the opportunity to post when he's strapped for time right now.

But as it stands I don't see how you could look at his posting patterns and not see scummy behaviour."
The final statement no longer stands because you have now contributed. Your posting patterns have changed.

"If you're town, try to be less judgemental and more thoughful in your approach to the game, please; and if you're scum, prepare to die."
I really don't care what you think about me though. I think what I'm doing is useful to the town and I stand by my second case based on what the situation was at the time. The situation has now changed so my read has changed. And I have no intention of changing my game just to please you.

Oh, and Ghug on page four thinking that Yoyo was trying to BUDDY TO HIM by targeting lurkers is weird. Explain why you thought Yoyo was specifically buddying up to you @Ghug?

@ND - you haven't really followed up on those posts, and you said "not buying it" to Damian as well iirc

"@Balki @ND @HR
et al

As it stands, I think we have 2 clear choices for lynch with maximum potential scum flip in DO and damian.

I'd be interested to hear what you think about this."

It's concerning that you seem to have narrowed it down so much just halfway through day one

@Wjessop: My vote is on Damian. I will consolidate my thoughts and case in my first list.