Fall 1906
For one thing, I wanted to note that we began our 'Semester' at the beginning of October, which was 6 or 7 weeks ago. The game is heading for its ending soon. Many of us watching the game were biting our nails hoping that England would take the wide open opportunity this Fall to make a devastating stab of France. Instead, the path of peace was taken, and the game is heading for a predictable 3-way draw.
As a consolation to the fact that the game is headed for a draw, rather than a photo-finish solo, consider this. I believe that getting good at Diplomacy helps improve your tactics and strategy. In the real world, this helps with strategic planning and figuratively thinking a few moves ahead. A little too much of that type of aptitude in real life, unfortunately, makes us evil, conniving maniacs. It's true.
The average Diplomacy player is either skinny or very much the opposite. White (very white). Nerdy. Genius. Socially inept. That being the default, if we manage to figure out how to be well-adjusted members of society, it's quite an achievement (there's a forum thread running right now about a member who has, quite to his and everybody's amazement, actually found a girlfriend! Amazing!).
That's the danger of becoming a master at orchestrating solos: we could become masters of manipulating people in our real lives. And that's mostly not good. When Calhamer created Diplomacy, he imagined that 7 guys would get together, spend 2 or 3 hours doing dastardly things, and then draw. He never imagined people would regularly play to a solo. To him, the draw held lots of charm.
I'm not saying that, as players, you should play for draws. What I am suggesting is that you should consider how big of a role you'd like this game to play in your life. I think that, being the person I am now, I'd have to trade in too many of my life skills to be the top ghostrated player in Diplomacy. I'm pretty happy being 8th at the moment. I think about Bobby Fischer a lot. He became the best chess player in the world. And then he went crazy.
We all could use a little improvement in our strategic thinking, and I hope that, in that spirit, all of our students continue to become good at this game. See if you can crack the top 100 in ghostrating. I was really bad for a long time. Then I stopped playing for about a year and a half. I returned in July and made it to 88th on the list. In August: 53rd. Then I won all my games and made it to 14th in September. Now I'm 8th. But next month I'll be dropping significantly, because I'm working on an impeccable record of 100% defeats this month.
So when should you stop playing? I think when you start winning all your games and, in your real life, becoming an evil, maniacal human being, you should stop. You could be the best diplomacy player in the world, but you'll be crazy. Or, when you become one of the many angry psychos on this website who are both bad at real-life and bad at diplomacy (and are well-hated everywhere).
I'll stop my free Diplomacy-counseling session now.
1. England. You had a chance at a solo run, but now you're edging more for a draw. In the games in which I've done well, I've had an ally. I've had an opportunity to stab my ally, and I passed. Then I had a better opportunity to stab, and I passed. I had an even better opportunity, and I passed. And then, the greatest opportunity came up. And I stabbed him brutally. For England, he has had plenty of opportunities to stab France. But this Autumn (hint: stabs should always happen in Autumn, since there's no time for the opponent to react), England had the biggest, baddest stab of the game. And, unfortunately, he passed. That being the case, anything but a draw seems unlikely. Great game, though. Another army build in Edinburgh perhaps?
2. France. Having averted England's stabbing opportunities, my guess is that diplomatic relations between France and England are stellar. England might just be a good guy, but my guess is there's something about France that, in spite of his horrible tactics, makes him diplomatically likeable enough to tolerate. France is a likely participant in the final draw. Yet another fleet in Marseilles is coming, although it could be an army.
3. Turkey. Fall is easily the best time to stab, and, for the second fall in a row, Turkey has tried and failed to stab Italy effectively. But, the intentions are clear, and hopefully Turkey will hang in there for the final draw. It would have been nice if Turkey hadn't bounced Russia in the Black for so many years. Russia seems rather inclined to help everybody who's attacked or will attack him, but he didn't want to help Turkey. Essentially, Russia would ally with a rock that just hit him in the face, but he won't ally with Turkey. That's crazy. Anyway, no builds.
4. Italy. Things are looking bad. With the disband, 2 builds are coming, likely F Naples A Venice. But the security of having 10 centers isn't looking too solid at this point.
5. Russia. At this point, Russia has allied with everybody but Turkey. No builds or disbands, but one unit has been popped.
Germany, thank God, is finally gone. Thanks for filling in hawkeye. Genuinely, that was great help, and it's been making me laugh to watch you push pieces around, narrowly averting death at every turn. Great game for you.