M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[bozotheclown]

Also, reading D2, Aaro was clearly around in advance because he'd interacted with worcej about things we shall mention 23 minutes earlier.

The real flaw in your theory is that it requires Yoyoyozo to have done any coordinating whatsoever, though.

Yes, so aarodactyl was already online, then maybe Yoyoyozo showed up and posted something in the QT that prompted aarodactyl to vote, while Yoyoyozo posted his vote immediately after posting in the QT.

[bozotheclown]

Aite so you have three more shots to find the last scum, which should still be more than enough. As a parting gift, my evaluation of the remaining players, from towniest to scummiest:

kgray - Do not daykill
ghug - Do not daykill
celaph - Do not daykill

Chaqa - Probably don't daykill. Pure paranoia suggests Chaqa being right on 4 of the 5 dead scum members is fishy, but still. Surely not. Surely not?!

Bozo - The only person who seems to be throwing shade at multiple people and thus could theoretically be 'lining up the miskills' that the scum would have to be doing here, given he seems to be after Aaro and also Flum, whilst also not exactly fighting hard to prevent Bona's death. Beginning to therefore look a bit more sus. Still struggling to imagine he hardbussed Damo there, but Bozo has been known to bus in the past so it isn't completely out of the question

Aaro - Perhaps I'm wrong on his towniness, though I still struggle to see it. He has been overly concerned with self-protection recently, but is that even especially surprising or damning for a newbie? Bona also spent most of the game only reacting to people scumreading him after all. In pure VCA terms Aaro doesn't really get any credit for any of the deaths though.

Fluminator - Back to the top of my suspicions now that the low-hanging fruit have been removed. Definitely capable of bussing, and there's been plenty discussion of the various issues with things he did D1 & D2... And I do still think he was tying me and Damo together there. Doesn't really get any credit for Damo D5 either, given he voted me and then Bona for most of the day and only joined the Damo wagon when it was in the lead.

I do not think it is accurate to say I was not trying to prevent the Bonatogether DK.

[aarodactyl]

Well at least we know he's knew.

Aaro, what's your mafia experience?

I haven't played on this forum before, but I played a fair bit in college. Not with nearly this many roles though.

aarodactyl didn't say he was new to mafia.

I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting.

When I read the post from D1, it seems to imply you have played mafia on a forum before, just not "this" forum.

I can see why you would read it that way but I would not have had time for forum games in college.

[bozotheclown]

I haven't played on this forum before, but I played a fair bit in college. Not with nearly this many roles though.

I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting.

When I read the post from D1, it seems to imply you have played mafia on a forum before, just not "this" forum.

I can see why you would read it that way but I would not have had time for forum games in college.

In any case, stating "I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting" was not accurate, because you never said that specifically.

[aarodactyl]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

[aarodactyl]

When I read the post from D1, it seems to imply you have played mafia on a forum before, just not "this" forum.

I can see why you would read it that way but I would not have had time for forum games in college.

In any case, stating "I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting" was not accurate, because you never said that specifically.

Ok? What is your point?

[Fluminator]

I'm still rereading, but I would really appreciate people who townread bozo to give their reasons.

[ghug]

I'm still rereading, but I would really appreciate people who townread bozo to give their reasons.

You should be willing to blindly sheep me because I was right about bona.

[Fluminator]

By people I mainly mean kgray. I already know ghug's reasons.

[bozotheclown]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

[ghug]

I'm still rereading, but I would really appreciate people who townread bozo to give their reasons.

More seriously:
D1 voting - He voted for Jamie with just Bunny and teacon. Yoyo voted for him, which could mean crazy bussing strats, but Yoyo was also planning to vote him out of the gate for the cop thing.
The damo kill - He pushed it really hard, and going after a teammate and a connection (me) on the assumption of that teammate having a specific role (smuggler) which he did not have seems like an odd choice.
He seems hungry.

[ghug]

By people I mainly mean kgray. I already know ghug's reasons.

Oh

[bozotheclown]

I can see why you would read it that way but I would not have had time for forum games in college.

In any case, stating "I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting" was not accurate, because you never said that specifically.

Ok? What is your point?

My point is you stated something inaccurately to support kgray's argument that the things I find suspicious may be the result of your inexperience.

[ghug]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

Your probabilities are right (albeit oversimplified to the point of uselessness: all minutes are not created equal, and all votes are not uncorrelated), but the conclusions are wrong. You've done no math showing why scum would be more likely than town to vote in the same minute.

[aarodactyl]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

The calculations are right but applying them is wrong. It’s not as bad as I thought at first but I’ll explain it in a little bit (my cats are getting very hungry)

[Fluminator]

Lol thanks anyway ghug.

I'm sorry but I have long since been skipping over you and bozo vs. Aaro.
It would help me greatly if you compiled it all into one post about why he's scum. I'll do a deep dive on aaro too.

Regarding the bozo bus on damo, I admit that looked good which is why I didn't consider him while the other three were still alive, but it's become clear the final scum bussed. (unless it's celaph)
Even aaro would have bussed damo pretty early.

[celaph]

Do you trust someone else's meta read that much?

My initial response was that I'm not trusting your meta read that much, but that I saw lots of comments saying that this is how town Chaqa plays. Though I'm glad I went ahead and reread stuff because I didn't realize that those other comments were all early game. I still think I'm unlikely to vote Chaqa because I struggle to construct a narrative where he is scum, but it's more likely than it was earlier.

In addition to your comment D4...
D1 BB said Chaqa is acting normal which is NAI
Flum D1 says that this is normal Chaqa.
BB's EoN1 List town reads Chaqa for largely meta means.
D2 Ghug implies that he town reads Chaqa and sees his behavior as normal.
EMC D2 town reads Chaqa's effort.
D2 ghug again comments that Chaqa's behavior is towny.
D2 Flum says that Chaqa being annoying and weird is a good town tell.

[bozotheclown]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

Your probabilities are right (albeit oversimplified to the point of uselessness: all minutes are not created equal, and all votes are not uncorrelated), but the conclusions are wrong. You've done no math showing why scum would be more likely than town to vote in the same minute.

Yes, obviously the timing of first votes are not random, but they are more concentrated earlier in the day. My reason for suspecting scum may have been more likely to vote in the same minute is that Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, and he could have said something in the QT that led to aarodactyl voting.
Yoyoyozo's vote was not only his first vote of D2, it was his first post of D2, so I think it would be a statistically unlikely coincidence if aarodactyl placed his first vote at the same time Yoyoyozo showed activity for the first time D2.

[Chaqa]

Do you trust someone else's meta read that much?

My initial response was that I'm not trusting your meta read that much, but that I saw lots of comments saying that this is how town Chaqa plays. Though I'm glad I went ahead and reread stuff because I didn't realize that those other comments were all early game. I still think I'm unlikely to vote Chaqa because I struggle to construct a narrative where he is scum, but it's more likely than it was earlier.

In addition to your comment D4...
D1 BB said Chaqa is acting normal which is NAI
Flum D1 says that this is normal Chaqa.
BB's EoN1 List town reads Chaqa for largely meta means.
D2 Ghug implies that he town reads Chaqa and sees his behavior as normal.
EMC D2 town reads Chaqa's effort.
D2 ghug again comments that Chaqa's behavior is towny.
D2 Flum says that Chaqa being annoying and weird is a good town tell.

You could at least buy me Chipotle if you’re gonna obsess over me...

[bozotheclown]

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

The calculations are right but applying them is wrong. It’s not as bad as I thought at first but I’ll explain it in a little bit (my cats are getting very hungry)

That is why I pointed out the probabilities were for random events, even though I am not implying the timing of voting was random.

Is it correct to assume you did not see Yoyoyozo's vote at 4:01 before EOD before you placed your vote?