M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[bozotheclown]

I think I'm narrowed down to Maniac/Bona/Damo. If anyone thinks one of those 3 are a bad idea, make your pitch to me lol.

I think killing Maniac or Bonatogether today would be a bad idea because they are both obviously town.

[Fluminator]

I think I'm narrowed down to Maniac/Bona/Damo. If anyone thinks one of those 3 are a bad idea, make your pitch to me lol.

I think killing Maniac or Bonatogether today would be a bad idea because they are both obviously town.

Tell me why they're obviously town. I'm not locked in.

[ghug]

Ok Tom, read these two Bona posts and the exchange starting here and tell me what you think:

Looking at peterbot:

T-45:12: ghug opens with a brain vote left on the grounds that brain townread teacon (reasonable to say scum. reasonable to vote on it? prob not, imo)
T-17:00: ghug switchs off to vote for aaro because kgray indicates that there would be more support for an aaro vote (ghug really wants someone voted who wasn't on the major wagons, huh)

T-3:43: kgray says that she's surprised that brain's not a wagon (the immediate origin of the speedwagon)
T-3:42: ghug responds with "Wanna be the change?"
T-3:42: kgray votes brain from damo, who had 2 other votes at this time

At this point in time, HB had 5 votes, kgray had 4, and bozo had 4. Bozo's wagon was about to fall apart, and kgray's wagon was not getting traction. Hamilton's wagon wasn't going to hit 6 votes until within an hour of EoD. There was no indication that anyone outside those three were going to get above 4 votes.

T-3:41: ghug votes brain from worcej, who had no other votes at this time

T-0:58: ghug switches over to yoyo from brain.
T-0:57: kgray votes for balki, moving from brain

***Brain has no votes with under an hour left***

T-0:43: ghug switches from maniac to brain, for the reason that if it comes down to it, it's obvious which of the HB/kgray/balki (6/4/4 at the time) trio he'd choose, but he prefered to get brain out. (He hadn't been voting any of the major wagons for at least 30 hours. wack)

T-0:39: Jamie finally hops off the bozo wagon, which had been hemorrhaging voters for hours by this point.

HB hits 9 votes at T-0:32, incidentally on brain's vote

T-0:30: HR says that the temptation to speedwagon Brain is increasing. (I think this is a townie statement, especially since it happened. If he was scum, he wouldn't want to draw attention to the fact that he thought Brain was going to get screwed)
T-0:30: Flum says that if HB acts more town, people can switch over to Brain
T-0:28: Vecna has a weird comment that I can't make heads or tails of, mostly due to repeated "this"s that apparently have different meanings.

T-0:24: HR votes brain, from Balki, for the above reasons
T-0:24: brain says that Flum and HB are scum
T-0:23: kgray votes brain because "lmao"

T-0:22: brain says he wasn't sure how to read kgray, so he flipped a coin and it came up scum. Why the fuck did he do this? It's so weird.
T-0:22: HB says that brain looks a little more sus to him, but he can't read him
T-0:22: ghug promises to flum that if he votes brain, he'll "consider helping" Flum vote HB tomorrow

T-0:20: Durga calls the HB wagon "ridiculous" and votes brain, coming from Maniac

With 20 minutes on the clock, HB still has 9 votes, brain has 4, and Maniac and kgray are both at 3.

T-0:19: Durga quotes HR's statement that emc doesn't care about votes that matter and jumped on a 1-vote wagon (brain). (Wtf? Durga voted brain just a minute ago. I scumread Durga for this)

T-0:18: Flum asks HB to post some of the stuff from his journal
T-0:15: Flum says that if HB does it, he'll vote brain (lowkey scum; see my maniac reasons)

T-0:15: brain posts reads. He scumread "emc, maniac, bozo, kgray, flum, vash, bona and maybe hb" and put "damo, balki, jamie, chaqa" as possible town

T-0:14: Maniac says that if HB votes brain he'll follow (scummier than a swamp. I'm willing to bet anything that the coordinator was popping off in the QT that they needed to nail brain, and this is the outcome. Notably, brain scumread him just a minute before)

T-0:13: Kgray prods Vecna to vote brain (I call this scum. Yes, I townread them earlier, but now there's a *concerted effort* by kgray and ghug to get brain votes with less than 15 minutes left on the clock. Scum)
T-0:13: HB posts his reads. Illegible.
T-0:13: brain says that HB is afraid to vote him, because then he'd get towncleared.
T-0:13: ghug tells flum to move to brain "to make it competitive" (flum was already committed to moving to brain, so I don't see why ghug makes this post. kind of scum)

T-0:12: Flum votes brain. Brain has now hit 5 voters.
T-0:12: brainbomb hints that he's about to claim PR, then immediately drops it.

T-0:11: HR says that if brain self votes, he won't vote him tomorrow (imo, it's a joke. NAI)
T-0:11: Jamie votes brain even though no one has asked him and he has not asked anyone. (kinda scum. i think coordinator is still ranting in QT at this point)

T-0:10: "Good enough - let's do Brain" - flum, who already voted for brain (scum)
T-0:10: "Time to make it interesting ##vote brain" - Vecna, who no one asked (see my reasons for jamie) THIS IS THE TIEING VOTE.

T-0:10: brain says that we need to read dead reads. Please, for god's sake, reread his stuff.

T-0:09: ghug again pushes for a vote on brain (scummier than a sewage pipe)
T-0:09: Aaro says he thinks HB is scummier, but he thinks that brain's voters are townier than the ones on HB. (Funky. @aaro, comments? elaboration?)
T-0:09: HB finally votes brain, putting brain into the lead. (i lean scum on this, but idk)
T-0:09: HR says that if HB doesn't vote brain, he's up tomorrow. (idk what to make of this)

T-0:08: Maniac votes brain without explanation.

T-0:06: HR implies that Maniac's vote is a bus to look good when brain turns scum

T-0:05: celaph says that the people voting brain look townier than the ones voting HB (same line that aaro said. possibly both scum? idk. i dislike celaph on principle)

T-0:04: worcej calls it as TvT. Damo agrees at T-0:02. Both have been voting kgray for hours (townread both of them)
T-0:04: Durga (apparently seriously) says that it's not too late to get Maniac. It's 9-brain, 7-hamilton. What a joke.

T-0:03: I have gotten back from my walk and am 11 pages behind. I quote a thing of bb's. (obv town. most townie person to walk the earth. )

T-0:01: brain posts more reads. This is the most important post of the day imo. He know's he screwed, and therefore has no inhibitions of currying favor to avoid being voted at this point. Everyone should reread this post.
T-0:01: ghug says that the push was town motivated. (he was one of the main pushers, so this statement reads as scum to me)

T-0:00 9-8, brainbomb is revealed as town.

TL;DR:
I think there was a push by scum to get him voted off.

* I name ghug, kgray, and flum as scum here, with a coordinator doing his thing in QT. Vecna, HR, and Durga also do not come out of this looking good. I dislike aaro and celaph using very similar reasoning right after each other.

* I like worcej, damo slightly less. They stayed out and correctly townread brain.

Bona, can you give me some idea of your thoughts on the game at the moment?

Doesn't have to be reads. Just whatever you find relevant.

This is a lot of junk in no particular order.

I think that the mafia's going to be playing it cool, since Durga knocked them good. There's 3 mafia, one of which 1 is guaranteed to be a goon. There's also a smuggler and/or a coordinator. I figure any goons are the ones more actively tripping the town up, the smuggler being a little more careful and trying to defend the coordinator, if they're there, and the coordinator is probably waffling a lot, or chasing false leads. I think we can then say that the players who are willing to go out on a limb are solid, and vice versa.

Aaro seems more fixated on me than normal, what with the whole bit about how chaqa knew my age and then with my whole goon thing, so I'd put him as townlean.

HR seemed active but then hasn't been talking much this phase. Probably just asleep or smth. Based off of stuff before, townlean.

Celaph has been trying to fit in for ages, which I put (surprise!) as leanscum. Same for Vecna, but less.

Mafia probably wants to kill a low-activity townie, unless they can nail someone who's getting a little too close to home without anyone noticing. Assuming that's right, I'd guess their shortlist to be Chaqa, Balki, damo, and Tom.

[Bonatogether]

<snip> Are we letting a newb scum get away with something?

Perhaps! Celaph's a solid wagon :)

[bozotheclown]

You were already one of my top scum suspects, but then it turned out with Yoyoyozo flipping scum that you are the only possibility for smuggler if the smuggler gave their real targets, and I think there were good reasons for the smuggler to give their real targets. That is why I think you are the best option today, because if it turns out you are the smuggler, we know we have to DK ghug next.

I think your whole thought process is flawed on the "if you were jailer who would you visit" thing. You specifically said if you were jailer. If I were a town PR (or even a scum one) I would not have given my real visits. I would have given who I would have visited if I was the jailer.

I'm not sure if this weird logic is scummy or usual Bozo insanity.

Is it really possible that people dont understand why we compiled the who would you jail list? We knew Durga saw either the jailer or scum pr. We made this very clear several times. We also made it clear that we were making the list so Durga could see if the people she visited lied about their visits. If they didn’t lie, she wasn’t going to immediately out them. However if they lied, she was going to out them as scum. The point of that was to try to force scum pr to answer honestly or force being outed. It worked perfectly and we got bunny. The downside was it worked too well and worcej has time to get themself modkilled.

I think it may have worked so well that we got damo and ghug also.

[Hellenic Riot]

##vote Celaph

[damo666]

Players 4 day vote record

Aaro TTSS
Balki STSS
Bona XUSS
Bozo STSS
Celaph XTSS
Chaqa STSS
Flum STXT
Ghug TTXS
Kgray TTSS
Maniac TTTS

and for completion

HR STSS
Vash/Tom STSS
Damo XXSS

I think this makes Balki, Bozo and Chaqa unlikely scum.

So only 21 pairs left!

Lol, I forgot I was voting Durga day 4. I don't think wagon analysis can be used for days 3 and 4.

No of course it can't. It just makes looks like more work lol.

[ghug]

Players 4 day vote record

Aaro TTSS
Balki STSS
Bona XUSS
Bozo STSS
Celaph XTSS
Chaqa STSS
Flum STXT
Ghug TTXS
Kgray TTSS
Maniac TTTS

and for completion

HR STSS
Vash/Tom STSS
Damo XXSS

I think this makes Balki, Bozo and Chaqa unlikely scum.

So only 21 pairs left!

Lol, I forgot I was voting Durga day 4. I don't think wagon analysis can be used for days 3 and 4.

No of course it can't. It just makes looks like more work lol.

Why does it make Chaqa unlikely scum but not Flum, then?

[ghug]

Look at that. Cagey Ray's getting saved again.

[bozotheclown]

mafia night action predictions:

N1:
BunnyGo (Blackmailer) targeted emc
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted Vecna
damo (Smuggler) targeted ghug
teacon (Goon) NKed rdrivera

N2:
BunnyGo (Blackmailer) targeted aarodactyl
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted and NKed Nephthys
damo (Smuggler) targeted ghug

N3:
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted damo and NKed emc
Yoyoyozo (Coordinator) assassinated Durga
damo (Smuggler) no target

N4:
ghug (Goon) NKed Vecna
damo (Smuggler) no target

Did I miss a Vecna RB claim on night 1?

I'm a bit unclear on where some of these thoughts come from (i.e. damo/ghug being scum targeting speicfic people???)

They are just my predictions, based on my theory that damo is the smuggler. Jamie's jailer claim was that he jailed Vecna N1, so he probably RBed him. Since Vecna was a VT he would know he was RBed in this setup.

[Chaqa]

I wish Tom wasn't so MIA.

I'm feeling today should be Bozo or Damo. Probably the other the next day unless the first one flips scum? Idk. Are we letting a newb scum get away with something?

How about damo today then since he already has 4 votes?

I addressed this. My holdup on voting Damo is the people voting him.

[Chaqa]

Hey it's page 420

You know what that means.

##Vote damo

I was thinking, and there's only two scum left, so at least half of his wagon must be town, so... :shrug:

[bozotheclown]

Reasons are I don't want a runaway wagon halfway through the day.

Why not? You started the damo wagon.

And it will be there for me to rejoin at the end if I so choose.

damo is not a run away wagon any more, so you can switch back now if damo is really your preferred DK.

[bozotheclown]

Hey it's page 420

You know what that means.

##Vote damo

I was thinking, and there's only two scum left, so at least half of his wagon must be town, so... :shrug:

thank you

[ghug]

Why not? You started the damo wagon.

And it will be there for me to rejoin at the end if I so choose.

damo is not a run away wagon any more, so you can switch back now if damo is really your preferred DK.

I like ties

[damo666]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Isn't this based on the premise that the scum would only vote for town D1 and D2? Considering the amount of bussing we already know about D1 and D2, I would say any group we know voted for town D1 and D2 is less likely to include a scum than a random selection of 4 players.

Damo has been pushing this theory for a long time even though the math is bad and also the assumptions are bad as well

Aaro. See the emboldened. Nothing wrong with that maths.

[ghug]

Isn't this based on the premise that the scum would only vote for town D1 and D2? Considering the amount of bussing we already know about D1 and D2, I would say any group we know voted for town D1 and D2 is less likely to include a scum than a random selection of 4 players.

Damo has been pushing this theory for a long time even though the math is bad and also the assumptions are bad as well

Aaro. See the emboldened. Nothing wrong with that maths.

You're definitely just trolling at this point.

[bozotheclown]

Luckily for you, I want to flip the same player you do. damo, right?

Sure do.

##vote celaph choo.choo

In my opinion, this is strong evidence to support my theory that damo is the smuggler.

[damo666]

Of the 7 players that leaves both Bona and Flum are in the too wierd to be scum category.

What does this mean and why is Maniac not in that group?

It means I can't spell 'weird'.

Maniac can be weird AND scum.

[bozotheclown]

And it will be there for me to rejoin at the end if I so choose.

damo is not a run away wagon any more, so you can switch back now if damo is really your preferred DK.

I like ties

It is not tied anymore, so you can switch back now.