Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Foxcastle]

Interesting that Squigs is pushing the "we must lynch mafia or BA" perspective, but not the "we cannot lynch town" today. Much easier to push a mislynch and get into victory territory that way.

[Foxcastle]

Let's see. ND, Percy, Squigs, and Flavius will be on me, kinda no matter what, I think.

So best case for me looks like a tie. But Durga would rather lynch me than let it tie...

So that'll be 4-2-1. Assuming the best case for town where the NK puts it at 3-2-1, even if you lynch to 3-1-1, the NK makes it 2-1-1, and the BA just has to not bounce. So yeah, Squigs is going for the win here.

Let's see if the scum can win. It's 4-2-1 after my mislynch. Let's say they know the BA, and can keep it to 3-2-1 after the NK. Then they have to lynch BA, so it'll 3-2, and they win after the NK, but at that point, town will know they're fucked, and the BA will be able to play last-minute vote shenanigans. So... it's still a gamble for the scum team.

Anyway, town is pretty fucked.

[Foxcastle]

Interesting that Squigs is pushing the "we must lynch mafia or BA" perspective, but not the "we cannot lynch town" today. Much easier to push a mislynch and get into victory territory that way.

Meant to include in this comment the note that Squigs is usually way more cautious, such that I think "cannot mislynch town" is more natural for town Squigs than the way he actually phrased it.

[Foxcastle]

Logging off shortly, so probably won't be responding to anything else until tomorrow.

Flavius, you're still honoring your bet, right?

[Squigs44]

Interesting that Squigs is pushing the "we must lynch mafia or BA" perspective, but not the "we cannot lynch town" today. Much easier to push a mislynch and get into victory territory that way.

Lynching mafia or BA is the same thing as not lynching town... I don't get what you are saying here

[Squigs44]

Fox, why did you ignore NDs post?

[Durga]

Wait Fox - your theory is Squigs is BA?

Squigs is probably the only person who CAN NOT be BA other than me

[Squigs44]

Could be a lot of things. BA and Mafia could have both hit Chippie. Mafia could have held the NK. BA could have held the kill and scouted.

It's pretty imperative that we don't mislynch today. I don't see how we win this if we mislynch. It's GG basically. But, all I know is my role and I am a VT.

Okay, I'll assume you're town. What do you think of the theory that the scumteam tried to setup a mislynch between us by trying to kill squigs (a move useful to implicate either of us, since scum-ND would want to make it look like he was being set up, and scum-Foxcastle would want to eliminate a potential vote for himself and keep Durga around to push you). But bounced off squigs because he's the BA.

Basically, do you think Squigs is a good candidate for BA?

Squigs has claimed that he has been roleblocked previously. If that's truthful then that disqualifies him from being the BA.

This is the post I'm referencing btw

[Durga]

Even if Squigs wasn't rb'd it disqualifies him from being the BA. Only mafia would lie about being rb'd - esp that eary in the game

Squigs is either mafia or town. He is NOT the BA

[Squigs44]

Fox is probably mafia trying to push a very flimsy BA case on me in order to attempt a "townslip" by looking like he forgot I was RBd. Or maybe I'm tunneling on Fox now.

Durga what do you think about Fox forgetting the RB

[Durga]

Fox is probably mafia trying to push a very flimsy BA case on me in order to attempt a "townslip" by looking like he forgot I was RBd. Or maybe I'm tunneling on Fox now.

Durga what do you think about Fox forgetting the RB

I don't know but it's not alignment indicative because mafia can forget too esp if they know who BA is now

[Durga]

Fox is probably mafia trying to push a very flimsy BA case on me in order to attempt a "townslip" by looking like he forgot I was RBd. Or maybe I'm tunneling on Fox now.

Durga what do you think about Fox forgetting the RB

I don't know but it's not alignment indicative because mafia can forget too esp if they know who BA is now

let me rephrase. forgetting that isn't necessarily townie. if we feel he's deliberately pretending to not know then that's a concern.

[Foxcastle]

Yeah, that’s pretty fatal to the Squigs theory. I guess got wrapped up in thinking I’d figured something out.

[Squigs44]

Yeah, that’s pretty fatal to the Squigs theory. I guess got wrapped up in thinking I’d figured something out.

So did you skip over NDs post or ignore it?

[Foxcastle]

Yeah, that’s pretty fatal to the Squigs theory. I guess got wrapped up in thinking I’d figured something out.

So did you skip over NDs post or ignore it?

Neither. I recall reading it now, just before I started my commute home. I must have overridden the fact of it with excitement for the new theory, especially once I really got going when I came back to the thread after dinner.

[ND]

"Can you explain the rationale for the BA scouting?"

@Durga: It's as good of a theory as anything else really. If you think about it logically it makes sense for the BA to at some point in the game post N1 to hold a kill and scout. It would mean a no kill but at the same time it may fool the mafia and the roleblocker which is a threat to BA. It would also help BA to identify the remaining mafia PR or eliminate someone from being the mafia PR.

Also, Fox reads as floundering mafia to me. Much more floundering than when Neph put him up D4. So, there's that.

[Durga]

"Can you explain the rationale for the BA scouting?"

@Durga: It's as good of a theory as anything else really. If you think about it logically it makes sense for the BA to at some point in the game post N1 to hold a kill and scout. It would mean a no kill but at the same time it may fool the mafia and the roleblocker which is a threat to BA. It would also help BA to identify the remaining mafia PR or eliminate someone from being the mafia PR.

Also, Fox reads as floundering mafia to me. Much more floundering than when Neph put him up D4. So, there's that.

JUst to follow up on this. There's a chance we lose if we don't lynch BA today. Who do you think is BA?

[Percy Williams]

##vote ND.

I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.

#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.

Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK

Or they role block ND, hit BA, BA kills chippe.

[Durga]

##vote ND.

I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.

#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.

Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK

Or they role block ND, hit BA, BA kills chippe.

I know. What do you think of Fox saying that he thinks my logic was sound (or whatever he said) ?

[Percy Williams]

##vote ND.

I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.

#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.

Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK

You want to know if/what I think you missed in this?

Well, I agree that neither Mafia nor BA held their kill. A mafia decision to hold the kill makes no sense. And I don't see it making sense for BA either (as I pointed out just before EON): he would have been even closer to his win by killing either scum or town.

Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim.

Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd. == ND could be town. But I find it extremely unlikely that both the serial killer and mafia would hit ND. I think it's likely the mafia kill rather than the BA, on the off chance that Chippe was the BA, and if he wasn't, he was so far down the scum list after ND and me that he was more townread than not.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim. See above for why these are unlikely choices for BA/mafia.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd == In this scenario, ND is likely town. But again, see above for why dual Chippe hits are unlikely.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA is RB'd. == ND claims for towncred, but is actually BA.

My theory is that Squigs is BA. He's been pretty confident this game, which comes from good play and good solving, but also possibly from the knowledge that he's safe from NK. He wants to eliminate scum, but not so quickly that town actually wins and can turn attention to finding him; but also, he does want scum lynched, because if 2 scum get control of the game that threatens him. If he thinks ND is actually scum, he wants ND lynched. So he gets ride of Chippe because he would have been a likely Foxcastle vote.

The scum team, on the other hand, want to get rid of clears. But go back and look at Squigs, he's much more reserved on whether ND or I is scum, much more analytical. Probably not a good choice to rely on for a mislynch whether he's either BA or town. Durga, on the other hand, is hard hard scumreading both me and ND, but also has some personal blindspots on when it comes to ND, so maybe he's hoping she can be swayed to not vote ND "just because she's pissed at him" or whatever. And besides, if they kill Durga, her record could be used against ND just as likely as against me, and moreso, is subject to the "they were trying to kill and ND vote, so ND must be scum" narrative. Anyway, point is, Squigs is a better kill for the mafia team than Durga.

Two issues
1. Wouldn't they have Roleblocked Sguigs after he fakeclaimed? (Assuming it was a fake claim and he is BA as your case finds.

2. Why doesn't Squigs BA kill an actual mafia, rather than some one who will probably vote for a Town?