MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

@Chaqa — skimmed it, still processing. Does your analysis account for the fact that Vecna claimed the John McClane tag when he allegedly peeked d2?

No, I have had some trouble tracking all of the peeks. But if that were true it would imply Snowy started with the tag or Vecna lost it on Night 1.

[rdrivera2005]

only scum care about consistency

This is true. I am starting to fear I am wrong about Vecna and that we have some deep scum.

I really dislike Celaph post about me, because he totally ignored Snowy tried to have me as his counterwagon.

And just because I don't post a lot or long walls this doesn't mean I am not paying attention to the game.

You’ve said this snowy counterwagon thing several times. Why does this magically clear you in your mind?

I don't need to be magically cleared. I won't be miskilled this game.

Anyway, explain me why scum Snowy tried to set me as a counterwagon of I am his partner. Or show that he didn't. Otherwise you are just scum tryng to set me up (again).

[Chaqa]

Also, how does it account for the likely behaviors of town and mafia in reaction to you claiming the no vote tag earlier?

I actually don't think that matters at all to this, since I was on the opposite wagon. If mafia believed me, they would think the 2-vote was Jamie, yourself, Bona, or Rumi. We know the driver wasn't involved with any of these people on Night 1, which makes me think either:
1. Mafia was comfortable if the 2-vote was on those people
2. Mafia didn't believe me

[President Eden]

I feel like I have one too many good guys among bo/celaph/worcej that’s keeping me from confidently solving the game.

[President Eden]

And actually, based on that, we definitely shouldn’t hammer because we need to see what they do. I’m watching you.

[Chaqa]

Did Jamie leave any indication who he was scanning last night? If he did, we can determine where he got his death tag from

[Chaqa]

I feel like I have one too many good guys among bo/celaph/worcej that’s keeping me from confidently solving the game.

I really think we can solve this today if we get some additional peeks.

[rdrivera2005]

If we’re gonna runaway wagon this on HB instead of having multiple options and actually gaining something useful today beyond the flip, we should hammer and do it quickly so maybe people are less likely to be completely disinterested after 5 real life days of doing nothing instead of 6.5 like we’ll have if we runaway on HB but don’t hammer.

The best thing to do is still to have an option to flip HB but not to make it so certain if we actually want useful info.

I agree with Bo here. If we’re actually all sure that Hamilton Neon is mafia then we should just get it over with and not waste time pretending to deliberate between options we aren’t really considering. Not hammering increases apathy by wasting town’s time, and it’s also disrespecting Brian’s time by pretending to give him a chance when we really aren’t.

But, I don’t actually know that we all think Brian is mafia, so I don’t want to just bully people into voting him off and learn nothing else for the day.

Hence I am NOT hammering right now.

Before hammering we need to agree on a second wagon just in case HB has the bomb (and if he is really Mafia this isn't unlikely).

[President Eden]

I feel like I have one too many good guys among bo/celaph/worcej that’s keeping me from confidently solving the game.

I really think we can solve this today if we get some additional peeks.

I didn’t have the double vote n1. Part of the reason I was swayed by Neon’s explanation of the tags thing is that I am both vanilla town and had a vanilla tag at the start of N1, and I could see how a new-to-the-setup player who rolled VT might be confused as to what vanilla meant for the tag and assume that the vanilla tags had to belong to VT. But Neon seems savvy enough to have either made that up, or have parlayed her genuine confusion into genuinely looking VT (while not actually being VT).

[Chaqa]

##UNEND

Unironically I'm gonna go make some spreadsheets and shit to figure this out

[Chaqa]

Sorry, I forget, do we know which way the N1 drive was? I know someone analyzed it all awhile back, but I can't find the post.

[rdrivera2005]

Did Jamie leave any indication who he was scanning last night? If he did, we can determine where he got his death tag from

He was probably scanning Vecna or HB but I think Mafia likely used the driver on him (unless they didn't use the Strongman the days before).

[President Eden]

Sorry, I forget, do we know which way the N1 drive was? I know someone analyzed it all awhile back, but I can't find the post.

Supposing the mafia adequately understood the roles enough to make a play, their safest bet to swipe the bomb from Sabi was to order ##BUS Neon and Sabi. This would put Sabi’s bomb on the bus driver, but not allow town PRs to take it back by visiting Sabi and being redirected to Neon (who, in the order ##BUS Sabi and Neon, would be holding the bomb).

We don’t have ironclad proof, but for the above reasons I think the order was ##BUS Neon and Sabi, which would have resulted in nametags going Neon -> Sabi -> Bus Driver -> Neon.

[Chaqa]

Sorry, I forget, do we know which way the N1 drive was? I know someone analyzed it all awhile back, but I can't find the post.

Supposing the mafia adequately understood the roles enough to make a play, their safest bet to swipe the bomb from Sabi was to order ##BUS Neon and Sabi. This would put Sabi’s bomb on the bus driver, but not allow town PRs to take it back by visiting Sabi and being redirected to Neon (who, in the order ##BUS Sabi and Neon, would be holding the bomb).

We don’t have ironclad proof, but for the above reasons I think the order was ##BUS Neon and Sabi, which would have resulted in nametags going Neon -> Sabi -> Bus Driver -> Neon.

Your use of ##BUS like that seems like a potential scumslip to me, but we don't need to talk about it again for a few phases since it's probably nothing.

[President Eden]

Sorry, I forget, do we know which way the N1 drive was? I know someone analyzed it all awhile back, but I can't find the post.

Supposing the mafia adequately understood the roles enough to make a play, their safest bet to swipe the bomb from Sabi was to order ##BUS Neon and Sabi. This would put Sabi’s bomb on the bus driver, but not allow town PRs to take it back by visiting Sabi and being redirected to Neon (who, in the order ##BUS Sabi and Neon, would be holding the bomb).

We don’t have ironclad proof, but for the above reasons I think the order was ##BUS Neon and Sabi, which would have resulted in nametags going Neon -> Sabi -> Bus Driver -> Neon.

Your use of ##BUS like that seems like a potential scumslip to me, but we don't need to talk about it again for a few phases since it's probably nothing.

I’m writing out how I would guess the exact syntax of the order goes because it actually matters for speaking clearly about the different possibilities.

##BUS Neon and Sabi = Neon -> Sabi -> Driver -> Neon
##BUS Sabi and Neon = Sabi -> Neon -> Driver -> Sabi

It’s overly formal to write it out exactly I guess, but I figure it’s worth being painstakingly clear about the syntax when the entire order changes on such a subtle difference as the sequence the names are written in

[President Eden]

Spelling it out that way you can see that you need the sequence (Sabi -> Driver) to be immune from the obvious consequences of swapping Neon and Sabi (which dargo presumably tried to leverage by giving Sabi flowers). It only emerges from ##BUS Neon and Sabi

[President Eden]

Oh wait, it’s actually ##DRIVE not ##BUS, lol.

gUyS i ToWnSlIpPeD1!1!

[Chaqa]

Oh wait, it’s actually ##DRIVE not ##BUS, lol.

gUyS i ToWnSlIpPeD1!1!

Logarithmically towncleared.

[Chaqa]

If the Bleeder is one of the more suspected players, should they claim?

[President Eden]

Oh god we have two PRs left??? Lol

I would think Bleeder a relatively safe claim if they’re under suspicion, but up to them.