Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bo_sox48]

@Bo_Sox:

I have read your long post now, and your thinking seems pretty compelling to me, I think you present a good case. I could buy Espresso and Darg both being scum.

I don't see any specific question in that post that you're looking for me to answer, though?

There isn't one. I just want to hear what people think because I don't see any end in which town wins if don't lynch both of them.

I'm also of the opinion that lynching both EP and darg is the correct play, because the coordination of the claims was bananas and I don't understand why scum would claim-counterclaim otherwise.

I have read through the argument about the DP and why the smokescreen may have made it difficult to fake claim it, but I think that scum could just have done something like claim DP and claim they didn't actually fire their ability for fear of hitting town, but they didn't want to draw attention during the smokescreening by explaining that.

But why I actually clipped this quote was: why do you think town can't win without lynching both? That's very interesting. Because town most certainly technically can. If whoever we lynch flips scum, we could decide to not lynch the other one. It will never be 100% clear until the end of the game, but it is possible that someone else is scummier and it is a better play to lynch that other person than the leftover of darg/EP, especially based on what we learn or can glean from the thread if the first lynch is confirmed scum. One of EP or darg can most certainly be town. So why do you think "[there is no] end in which town wins if don't lynch both of them"?

I don't think town will win without lynching both of them because I don't see any resolution of this question where they are not both scum. Nothing else makes sense other than darg being stupid enough to counterclaim when no clearing or incriminating information has been presented, and darg is not that stupid. Pretty simple. I know you're trying to lead into "omg scumslip" territory but you do not need to explain to me that "it will never be 100% clear until the end of the game."

[xorxes]

Also, FWIW, I also think Jamie's oracle claim can just as easily be turned into a tracker claim with the shell suits. Fuck, you could even see a watcher claim inside that list if you wanted to try really hard (Walker) to spin it.

Just saying, not the most definitive softing from Jamie.

Why would scum want to soft Watcher, which we know was not one of their fakeclaims?

What is your current read of bo_sox? Did you do anything with his "oh shit" response to your reaction test?

(BTW, I tried to find the "oh shit" post using the bot by searching for user worcej and word shit, but that didn't help that much to narrow down the search )

[xorxes]

In case I die tonight (unlikely but not impossible):

worcej needs to explain why he softed Oracle when he was the counterwagon to Vapor. Jamiet needs to explain why this didn't bother him.

I didn't notice it.

What are your thoughts now that it has been pointed out that worcej has been softing Oracle? Do you buy his explanation that he was trying to draw the NK with that soft?

[bozotheclown]

After the vig shot, did you consider asking to be lynched to clear yourself? You said you could have crumbed harder, what were you crumbing?

Are you reading what I said? Quit asking dumb questions. I am not trying to hurt town by clearing myself. Between the potential of getting scum and the information we gain, lynches are more important to the town than clearing me. I don't even know why I'm explaining this to you.

My crumb was straight to rdrivera. Did you miss that too?

I will shoot you if the wagon on me gets traction.

That would make you a lock for least valuable player, my friend.

That doesn't sound like me saying bulletproof to me.

I disagree, I think a D1 no lynch for a town clear is a good trade. It certainly would be helpful if you were clear, and not clearing yourself when you had the chance looks suspicious to me.

Were you crumbing a more important role so that rdrivera would not shoot you?

[xorxes]

He could still ask for a TLDR here as well. The stronger bullet point is that the claim makes no sense at the point it came, but since he is new it's hard to tell. We need to hear more about it before deciding. And we need to hear more from him about anything else even if he chooses not to talk about this any more for now.

Look, here is Xorxes setting up a Vig claim.

I assume this is meant as some kind of joke, but in case not, read the whole post, in particular the text from brainbomb that I was replying to.

And in any case, why would any sane scum crumb a role that they did not have as part of their fakeclaims, especially a role that would have to be hard-proven?

[flash2015]

I am pretty confident it is darg over DP:

##VOTE darg

Why? If you're town, we need to see your reasoning. Otherwise, if darg flips town you will look scummy and may cost us the game, and if he flips scum we won't be able to tell if you voted for him for good towny reasons or just because everyone else was voting for him and so you didn't have much choice.

I am not one for big explanations. I guess I go for darg because he claimed second, the response felt rushed (if I had been tracker I would have had something more detailed prepared and ready to go) and his crumbs felt forced.

[xorxes]

And as for "Monster Munch" being a crumb... Nope.

I would agree with that. I just threw it in for completeness.

It appears that none of the VTs thought of crumbing their animals, perhaps because they didn't realize that this is not like a usual game where crumbing VT is pretty silly. I would understand if scum only bothered to crumb for their PR fakes as well, and not for any VT fake they might have had.

[bozotheclown]

This is a nice red herring you've invented for yourselves, but I'm afraid it's a waste of your time.

You pointed to this post as your crumb. If both trackers turn out to be scum, we will know tracker was one of the scum roles, keeping open the possibility you were crumbing all of the scum fake roles.

"Shell suit" is a pretty weak / shitty tracker crumb, though. I was not crumbing tracker.

Were you crumbing Tortoise then?

[xorxes]

I'm not entirely sure how I escape this SvS narrative, so the best I can do is hope for a change of circumstances to add credence to my claim.

Barring that, I'll keep you guys informed of my reads.

Yes, the best way is to provide reads (with arguments behind them). Dargo has produced none (other than the obvious one of reading you as scum), you have provided some useful stuff with the smokescreen general analysis but very little in terms of actual reads of people.

[xorxes]

Beyond that, I do not think that clearing me on D1 is the best use of the vigilante's gun over trying to get a good scumread that probably wouldn't get lynched. I gave this some thought early on but came to the conclusion that I'm not that important and wasting the vigilante's shot was a bad strategy. That is especially so when I could have been a nightkill target and cleared myself that way instead, and given that they went for Vecna instead of a clear I obviously could have been if I had crumbed harder than I did or perhaps even not been duped by the real vigilante's poor play. Worth the risk to me, by far.

After the vig shot, did you consider asking to be lynched to clear yourself? You said you could have crumbed harder, what were you crumbing?

I was going to ask about that too. Which roles did you crumb?

[Percy Williams]

I think that the only way this will end will be in lynching both of them, whether they're TvS or SvS.

[xorxes]

Worcej and bo_sox refused to participate. If they were maf, they would have been the obvious choices to take the DP claim later in the game. Town cred to them.

If worcej and bo_sox refused to participate and then claimed DP, do you really think they would have been believed? I strongly believe you would have led a crusade against them for not playing the smokescreen minigame and then claiming.

Unless he is scum with one of them.

[xorxes]

I think that the only way this will end will be in lynching both of them, whether they're TvS or SvS.

That will depend on what you bring us tomorrow if you're still with us.

[Jamiet99uk]

In case I die tonight (unlikely but not impossible):

worcej needs to explain why he softed Oracle when he was the counterwagon to Vapor. Jamiet needs to explain why this didn't bother him.

I didn't notice it.

What are your thoughts now that it has been pointed out that worcej has been softing Oracle? Do you buy his explanation that he was trying to draw the NK with that soft?

It doesn't strike me as 100% convincing. However, once again, why would scum worcej softclaim a role that wasn't on the scum's fakeclaim list?

[Jamiet99uk]

He could still ask for a TLDR here as well. The stronger bullet point is that the claim makes no sense at the point it came, but since he is new it's hard to tell. We need to hear more about it before deciding. And we need to hear more from him about anything else even if he chooses not to talk about this any more for now.

Look, here is Xorxes setting up a Vig claim.

I assume this is meant as some kind of joke, but in case not, read the whole post, in particular the text from brainbomb that I was replying to.

And in any case, why would any sane scum crumb a role that they did not have as part of their fakeclaims, especially a role that would have to be hard-proven?

It was partly a joke and partly a response to your scepticism towards my actual breadcrumbing of the oracle. Yes, you can find words in almost anyone's posts which you can present as fake crumbs. That doesn't mean that the player in question actually intended them as crumbs. See?

[Jamiet99uk]

You pointed to this post as your crumb. If both trackers turn out to be scum, we will know tracker was one of the scum roles, keeping open the possibility you were crumbing all of the scum fake roles.

"Shell suit" is a pretty weak / shitty tracker crumb, though. I was not crumbing tracker.

Were you crumbing Tortoise then?

No. Iwas crumbing Oracle, with my Ceefax reference. I thought it was quite clever actually.

[xorxes]

I didn't notice it.

What are your thoughts now that it has been pointed out that worcej has been softing Oracle? Do you buy his explanation that he was trying to draw the NK with that soft?

It doesn't strike me as 100% convincing. However, once again, why would scum worcej softclaim a role that wasn't on the scum's fakeclaim list?

Why would town!worcej softclaim Oracle though? You usually hate it when people lie. Why are you so forgiving with him, especially as it involves your own role?

[worcej]

Also, FWIW, I also think Jamie's oracle claim can just as easily be turned into a tracker claim with the shell suits. Fuck, you could even see a watcher claim inside that list if you wanted to try really hard (Walker) to spin it.

Just saying, not the most definitive softing from Jamie.

Why would scum want to soft Watcher, which we know was not one of their fakeclaims?

What is your current read of bo_sox? Did you do anything with his "oh shit" response to your reaction test?

(BTW, I tried to find the "oh shit" post using the bot by searching for user worcej and word shit, but that didn't help that much to narrow down the search )

Yes, I like my 4 letter words... lol...

Why would scum counter-claim the tracker? I respect Jamie enough as a player to think he might try to plant flags to do the exact same thing darg/EP did currently. I am not trying to quantify the effectiveness of his crumbs, only stating you could look at his list and see the opportunity to say he was claiming something else. And because of this, I look at Jamie's crumb of the oracle position as a little sketchy.

Why are you curious about my read of Bo? My focus is on the current problems facing the town, which are all verifiable and solvable, and are in this order:

1. Getting Darg/EP right.
2. Verifying Percy's role.
3. Verifying your (xorxes) role.

I already pretty much summed up how the next few days and nights should play out. Sticking to that script would ensure we are not at mylo unless we miss on EP/Darg, which is where our focus should be atm.

[xorxes]

Look, here is Xorxes setting up a Vig claim.

I assume this is meant as some kind of joke, but in case not, read the whole post, in particular the text from brainbomb that I was replying to.

And in any case, why would any sane scum crumb a role that they did not have as part of their fakeclaims, especially a role that would have to be hard-proven?

It was partly a joke and partly a response to your scepticism towards my actual breadcrumbing of the oracle. Yes, you can find words in almost anyone's posts which you can present as fake crumbs. That doesn't mean that the player in question actually intended them as crumbs. See?

I don't have any doubts that you were actually crumbing Oracle. That is completely believable. That doesn't prove you're town though, it only proves that you either are the town Oracle or that the Oracle was one of the roles that scum had for faking.

Similarly with my claim. It doesn't prove I'm Innocent Child. It only proves that either I am the town's Innocent Child, or that the role was part of the fakelist. If someone else had crumbed Innocent Child, especially someone suspected of being scum, then that would make me more suspect too.

[xorxes]

Why would scum counter-claim the tracker? I respect Jamie enough as a player to think he might try to plant flags to do the exact same thing darg/EP did currently.

You believe one of them is town?

Why are you curious about my read of Bo?

Because you indicated he fell into your reaction test trap. I was wondering what you took out of that.

My focus is on the current problems facing the town, which are all verifiable and solvable, and are in this order:

1. Getting Darg/EP right.
2. Verifying Percy's role.
3. Verifying your (xorxes) role.

I already pretty much summed up how the next few days and nights should play out. Sticking to that script would ensure we are not at mylo unless we miss on EP/Darg, which is where our focus should be atm.

Verifying my role is trivial, it's just a matter of waiting. No use spending more than two seconds thinking about that.

Verifying Percy's role might be tricky but it's something that we can do much more effectively tomorrow: either Mafia solves it for us and we don't need to do anything, or else we will have a lot more information to decide (his choice of scan and its result). No use spending much time thinking about that now.

Getting Darg/EP right is important. My thinking is that we will get it right no matter what, but if you think otherwise then examining who they might be partnered with is very important to decide which one is the scum, don't you agree?