M1035 - Julius Caesar Mafia - Game Thread

[damo666]

As it stands the chance a towny voting a scum at random is 1/3.

If the mason claims the for vts this goes up to 2/5 (and if we get a cc 1/2).

So... should the mason reveal (thus sacrificing themselves to the NK)?

Opinions sought.

[DreamTrawler]

As it stands the chance a towny voting a scum at random is 1/3.

If the mason claims the for vts this goes up to 2/5 (and if we get a cc 1/2).

So... should the mason reveal (thus sacrificing themselves to the NK)?

Opinions sought.

Single Mason reveal is meaningless now that the other Mason is dead though right? Can’t Mafia butt in and add “wait no I’m the Mason you liar”

[damo666]

As it stands the chance a towny voting a scum at random is 1/3.

If the mason claims the for vts this goes up to 2/5 (and if we get a cc 1/2).

So... should the mason reveal (thus sacrificing themselves to the NK)?

Opinions sought.

Single Mason reveal is meaningless now that the other Mason is dead though right? Can’t Mafia butt in and add “wait no I’m the Mason you liar”

Exactly! Giving us a 50/50 shot since one of the 2 must be lying and therefore scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Well shit

[Jamiet99uk]

Should the other Mason claim?

They have no chat now so...
Why not?

[damo666]

Should the other Mason claim?

They have no chat now so...
Why not?

Yes

[ghug]

As it stands the chance a towny voting a scum at random is 1/3.

If the mason claims the for vts this goes up to 2/5 (and if we get a cc 1/2).

So... should the mason reveal (thus sacrificing themselves to the NK)?

Opinions sought.

##VOTE damo harder

[ghug]

Should the other Mason claim?

They have no chat now so...
Why not?

Clear later > clear now

[ghug]

If we have to have this stupid debate, please nobody claim until we've resolved it. You can always claim later, you can't take it back once you've done it.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

[Jamiet99uk]

The living Mason is a confirmed townie unless Scum wishes to risk falsely counter-claiming.

[ghug]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

If the mason claims now, we'll just lose them tonight and not be any better off tomorrow. They can claim if on the block and hide otherwise so that scum will more likely use their NK on a VT early.

This logic is akin to asking all the PRs to claim D1 to make it easier.

[ghug]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

Why are you voting for damo?

[DreamTrawler]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

If the mason claims now, we'll just lose them tonight and not be any better off tomorrow. They can claim if on the block and hide otherwise so that scum will more likely use their NK on a VT early.

This logic is akin to asking all the PRs to claim D1 to make it easier.

I agree, but when exactly is a good time for the Mason to claim?

Also - why do we think the Mafia targeted D&W? It seems unlikely that they already guessed who the Masons were.

[damo666]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

If the mason claims now, we'll just lose them tonight and not be any better off tomorrow. They can claim if on the block and hide otherwise so that scum will more likely use their NK on a VT early.

This logic is akin to asking all the PRs to claim D1 to make it easier.

Yeah ok

[ghug]

##Vote Damo

Living mason please claim

If the mason claims now, we'll just lose them tonight and not be any better off tomorrow. They can claim if on the block and hide otherwise so that scum will more likely use their NK on a VT early.

This logic is akin to asking all the PRs to claim D1 to make it easier.

I agree, but when exactly is a good time for the Mason to claim?

Also - why do we think the Mafia targeted D&W? It seems unlikely that they already guessed who the Masons were.

He was doing a bunch of weirdly overt "I'm hiding codes in my posts" stuff. It seems at least plausible they thought that was legit.

Beyond that, though, there's not a whole lot of use in trying to theorize what the Mafia were doing with the nightkills, especially early. It's too easy for them to double bluff or the town to just come to the wrong conclusions. Some people will disagree with me, I'm sure, but those people are wrong.

[Kakarroto]

so I guess the best thing is for the mason themselves to decide if they want to claim or not. In my opinion, if they think mafia has found out who they are, due to the code (pretty sure D&W did explain that to his partner), and are at high risk of being the Night 2 NK, they should probably claim today, although on a later date, to see how the game develops. Maybe after the halfway point?

Well the same is true if somehow they are close to be voted out, as ghug said. Maybe wait a bit if the pressure dissipates, but not like five minutes before EoD.

But if they are pretty sure to be hidden, stay down and keep low, try to survive to the endgame, and give us a townclear at the end time. Think that sounds good?

In that sense, if they see mafia claiming to be the mason, they should probably wait for the end of the night, right? Or would a direct counter then better? Like a surehit on a mafia early for a trade as the NK? Or adding a living townclear at the later stage with a surviving mafia until then? Could maybe give more info for connections, but if handled badly, could mean loss of the mason with being hit by a random NK without their opinions shared.

Ah well, I guess it's the mason's choice to decide what to do. I think it wouldn't hurt if someone gave some advice for it, but don't force our PR in any direction, it's their choice.

[Kakarroto]

With that said, we should probably come to see what we could do about this mess. Like, Caesar just did brutally murder the son of his mistress. We need to get behind that.

So, Bunny, I hope you are getting better soon, but you had a big suspicion of dip. Give me your thoughts of why dip was the target of the NK, even when there was a big wagon for him yesterday (even when the wagon suddenly died and never re-emerged).

In your opinion, how likely is it that mafia has voted dip yesterday? Also, what are your thoughts of the people that voted for dip yesterday?

[Kakarroto]

I also want the input of people on my thoughts of the chance that Will&Bunny might be our mafia team, especially Jamie, damo and ghug.

Will was very protective of some people, and easily gave out townreads. Jamie, Red and dip if I remember correctly. Oh and Dream I think. Two of them already flipped correct.

Can you revisit their (Bunny&Will) discussion and give me a response how you think about that possible pairing? Am I just seeing things or did I actually notice a true connection?

[Kakarroto]

In that regard, Will, you did gave out some easy townreads. How did you get to them. You said for example on page 7 that Jamie is town, with much conviction. How can you be sure of that? Jamie is great at hiding his alignment when he is mafia.

You explained your dip read and Dream, so I wont question you about them, but what about Red? When did you read Red as town? How were you that sure?