Mafia 91 - Battle for the Sunset Strip - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[BunnyGo]

Buttermilk biscuits

Oh sweet child

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I couldnt see the thread on the forum shortcut on the left for somereason it only shows up in the forum tab

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Welcome to the jungle we got fun and games

[Spartaculous]

Welcome to the jungle we got fun and games

When I was in graduate school my friend Jake taught us all a card game he called Guns and Roses. It was a fun game, and we played it quite a bit. Some weeks later, we learned that Jake had no idea that there was a band that the game was named for.

[GlitterBomb]

Thanks. I’ll be here…

Or crocheting.

Working on any particular crocheting projects? I need to get inspired to crochet again!

My first full size blanket.

Entirely simple stitch Tunisian, but doing a bunch of diagonal color changing.

Fairly new to it. Only made 2 scarves and 2 baby blankets before.

Awesome! Sounds like it’ll be cool! I haven’t done a full-size one yet either. I am an on and off crocheter and tend to do more in winter. Always been intrigued by those temperature blankets too so maybe I’ll do that next year!

[brainbomb]

the setup is not very complicated until you factor in people shooting each other. with guns there is always the chance that we successfully gain added value in killing extra mafia or killing mafia in the absence of successful daytime kills. however more typically we tend to fail
miserably by either handcuffing our gunned players and trying to micromanage their choices; or the gun holders try too hard and shoot into consensus town pools.

so with that said it is super important people have attempts at reading the hard to read players and if for nothing else; bucket them for themself into would kill and would not kill categories. you do not have to share such things other than just reads however. no sense in opening the door for ease of mafia manipulation.

early read is that sparta is probably town here; maybe bunny also. neither are anything profound, just instinct.

ghug and glitter dont seem scummy but also havent moved the dial for me with anything yet. vecna gimmick is sort of like his Julius Ceaser thing and it amused me but its also something hes done as scum before. that said I enjoyed his robot role play and would like to see if it has room to be both fun and useful as a tool

[BunnyGo]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

[Spartaculous]

vecna gimmick is sort of like his Julius Ceaser thing and it amused me but its also something hes done as scum before. that said I enjoyed his robot role play and would like to see if it has room to be both fun and useful as a tool

Genuine question: I know that various players occasionally adopt some sort of gimmick while playing. In what way could this end up being "useful as a tool"?

[GlitterBomb]

vecna gimmick is sort of like his Julius Ceaser thing and it amused me but its also something hes done as scum before. that said I enjoyed his robot role play and would like to see if it has room to be both fun and useful as a tool

Genuine question: I know that various players occasionally adopt some sort of gimmick while playing. In what way could this end up being "useful as a tool"?

I was wondering the same thing. Like does it give different insights somehow or cause different types of reactions or interactions from players maybe? Those were my guesses. I haven’t really been in a game with such an approach yet, so this is interesting.

[GlitterBomb]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

[BunnyGo]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

He’s playing himself. But too early.

His first post was an awkward version of himself.

His second long post was too serious too early with weird punctuation and scanning. Read like he was trying to shake early sillier votes by me and ghug for the first post.

He said it’d be hard for him to read you, but I think your presence threw him off.

[BunnyGo]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

This is not “quiet reserved Bunny”.

Bunny’s day 1 gimmicks are usually a character or 100% lurk while upvoting or doing something to let people know it’s a gimmick.

[BunnyGo]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

You happened to catch a particularly manic Bunny last game

[GlitterBomb]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

You happened to catch a particularly manic Bunny last game

Hahaha! Gotcha. That’s all I have to go off of. These quick and succinct answers were throwing me.

[Spartaculous]

I'm trying to get a sense of what is the proper distribution between guns and roses the town should want to have between them. To do this, I decided to do a little modeling of a simplified version of the game. I assume the following:

* Everyone survives day 1, so we go into night 1 at 11 town and 3 mafia.
* All mafia choose a night-1 gun.
* All town choose either a night-1 gun (with probability p) or a night-1 rose (with probability 1-p). (So: after night 1, all mechanics are exhausted.)
* The mafia pick 4 town at random to kill on night 1 (1 factional kill and 3 from their guns).
* With probability q, each town with a gun shoots at a randomly-chosen mafia, and thus has probability 1-q of shooting at a randomly-chosen town.

q represents the probability of a townsperson correctly guessing that a different player is mafia. At the start of the game, this should be 3 / 13 = 23% (there is no information to pick between any other players). Of course, we would hope that q > 23% as the game goes on.

For all combinations of p in {0.1,0.2,...0.8,0.9} and q in {0.23,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4}, I ran 1000 simulations in R and recorded the average number of town and mafia remaining after all of the carnage of night 1. Here is the resulting table:

i.imgur.com/a/QNlMUpv

Here is how to read this: if all town pick a gun with probability p = 0.4, and each town with a gun has probability q = 0.35 of correctly identifying mafia, then we expect there to be about 8.991 surviving town and 1.771 surviving mafia after night 1.

A few obvious critiques you can make of all of this:

(1) I do not advocate for a tied kill on Day 1; I am merely choosing this to simplify my analysis.

(2) Of course, it is possible for mafia to pick roses.

(3) And of course, there are more nights to choose between than just night 1.

But I just wanted to get my hands dirty with some data. I'm tired, so I'll come back to this tomorrow and try to make sense of what this data tells me in terms of how to approach this particular game.

(Also, off topic, but when I tried to upload this as an attachment to the discussion board, I received the error message "Sorry, the board attachment quota has been reached.". Has anyone else had this happen?)

[GlitterBomb]

Brains scum. This isn’t a gimmick or bit by me. He’s struggling scum already.

Trying to figure out how you’re getting there. To me, hes digging in and making observations. He explained why he was willing to go rose…. I think it’d be silly for us to trust that alone and we should for sure have others who are willing to do the same. I’ve never played with him - so what are you seeing?

I’m also not used to a more quiet/reserved Bunny, so that’s throwing me.

He’s playing himself. But too early.

His first post was an awkward version of himself.

His second long post was too serious too early with weird punctuation and scanning. Read like he was trying to shake early sillier votes by me and ghug for the first post.

He said it’d be hard for him to read you, but I think your presence threw him off.

I did notice that he didn’t do any small talk at all or even a basic greeting like most everyone else did (out of those who have been active so far). A “shitpost” if you will…. See I can learn! lol. He just went right into all business. But that doesn’t necessarily scream scum to me. To your point, me being here is probably messing with him a bit. Idk yet.

[GlitterBomb]

I'm trying to get a sense of what is the proper distribution between guns and roses the town should want to have between them. To do this, I decided to do a little modeling of a simplified version of the game. I assume the following:

* Everyone survives day 1, so we go into night 1 at 11 town and 3 mafia.
* All mafia choose a night-1 gun.
* All town choose either a night-1 gun (with probability p) or a night-1 rose (with probability 1-p). (So: after night 1, all mechanics are exhausted.)
* The mafia pick 4 town at random to kill on night 1 (1 factional kill and 3 from their guns).
* With probability q, each town with a gun shoots at a randomly-chosen mafia, and thus has probability 1-q of shooting at a randomly-chosen town.

q represents the probability of a townsperson correctly guessing that a different player is mafia. At the start of the game, this should be 3 / 13 = 23% (there is no information to pick between any other players). Of course, we would hope that q > 23% as the game goes on.

For all combinations of p in {0.1,0.2,...0.8,0.9} and q in {0.23,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4}, I ran 1000 simulations in R and recorded the average number of town and mafia remaining after all of the carnage of night 1. Here is the resulting table:

i.imgur.com/a/QNlMUpv

Here is how to read this: if all town pick a gun with probability p = 0.4, and each town with a gun has probability q = 0.35 of correctly identifying mafia, then we expect there to be about 8.991 surviving town and 1.771 surviving mafia after night 1.

A few obvious critiques you can make of all of this:

(1) I do not advocate for a tied kill on Day 1; I am merely choosing this to simplify my analysis.

(2) Of course, it is possible for mafia to pick roses.

(3) And of course, there are more nights to choose between than just night 1.

But I just wanted to get my hands dirty with some data. I'm tired, so I'll come back to this tomorrow and try to make sense of what this data tells me in terms of how to approach this particular game.

(Also, off topic, but when I tried to upload this as an attachment to the discussion board, I received the error message "Sorry, the board attachment quota has been reached.". Has anyone else had this happen?)

I haven’t been able to truly absorb everything you just posted, but did want to say that last game when I tried to add attachments I also ran into issues. So instead I added them to a google doc and linked that and it worked well! For future reference! Stats have never been my strong suit, but I’m gonna try to take this all in now…thanks for breaking it down and calling out the challenges with it.

[Spartaculous]

I haven’t been able to truly absorb everything you just posted, but did want to say that last game when I tried to add attachments I also ran into issues. So instead I added them to a google doc and linked that and it worked well! For future reference! Stats have never been my strong suit, but I’m gonna try to take this all in now…thanks for breaking it down and calling out the challenges with it.

I honestly haven't been able to absorb everything I just posted myself - I'll save that for tomorrow. Thanks for the Google docs suggestion - I might try that in the future if image posting still doesn't work.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I think this game can be broken

I assume we probably shouldn’t communicate our picks for guns/roses?

[Chaqa]

I'm shooting someone N1