Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bo_sox48]

For real, we got counterclaims? Neat

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

I will reread you with all of this in mind. So basically you were the only one that knew that damo could only be the doctor if his claim was true.

Do you know for sure that if there is no ant you cannot track whoever else does the kill, or are you just assuming?

If I had the information to know damo was telling the truth, I didn't put the pieces together tbh. I thought he was scum.

Good point about the no ant tracking. I see no reason why I couldn't track the non-ant killer, but I don't see a world in which scum!xorxes decides to carry out the kill in light of his innocent child reveal. To be fair to the numbers then, I suppose there's a slightly different percent than 20% if there was no ant but there was a hooker visit.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok... thanks espresso. For lying through your teeth. And revealing our first scum.

I am the tracker.

N2, PW did not go anywhere. I chose him simply because I scumread him.
N3 I TRIED to track xorxes. But I was roll blocked.

I am again, by the side of the road... but needed to post this asap.

##VOTE ESPRESSOPATRONUM

If you are the real tracker, I would like you to speculate as to why Espresso would possibly choose NOT to claim one of the fake roles provided to the scumteam?

[bo_sox48]

Why do we need an order?

For what it is worth, I think we should give our oracle a chance before massclaiming.

A chance how?

Read my next post.

[EspressoPatronum]

lmao what?? Why would he try counterclaiming?

[bo_sox48]

Ok... thanks espresso. For lying through your teeth. And revealing our first scum.

I am the tracker.

N2, PW did not go anywhere. I chose him simply because I scumread him.
N3 I TRIED to track xorxes. But I was roll blocked.

I am again, by the side of the road... but needed to post this asap.

##VOTE ESPRESSOPATRONUM

Where are your crumbs?

[Foxcastle]

##VOTE DARGO

[xorxes]

@bozo, why have you not asked for a massclaim yet now that it makes sense?

If you think it makes sense, why didn't you ask for it for the first 1 hour and 48 minutes of the day?

Because I wasn't here,

A "mass" claim of roles no longer has any benefit to town, although the tracker, if there is one, should claim and report his targets/results. There are some possible down sides to claiming. The absorber could have picked up a useful power, however unlikely, and it is not impossible that the game is still going after the clears have been taken out, so it is better to not reveal the oracle unnecessarily.

I'm willing to let Tom decide. I would like to know what the Divine Presence did, and what Bulletproof did D1.

[flash2015]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

[EspressoPatronum]

##VOTE dargo

[EspressoPatronum]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

I made the claim ASAP after finishing work at 5pm EST.

[Chaqa]

Lol Darg

##vote Dargo

[EspressoPatronum]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

I made the claim ASAP after finishing work at 5pm EST.

I even wrote it out on my walk home, lol

[xorxes]

Why do we need an order?

There is one role neither assigned to town nor in the mafia fakelist. Ideally we don't want the last to claim to be scum and have the choice of not claiming some uncomfortable role they might have.

For what it is worth, I think we should give our oracle a chance before massclaiming.

It's too far in the future that there will be a chance for scum to kill the Oracle, and there has already been a soft, so...

[Chaqa]

I would like to see some crumbs from our claimants if they exist.

[EspressoPatronum]

Hmm, this makes me think Percy is our real cop.

NotHooker!Darg counterclaiming me means we lynch one of him or me. This leaves the hooker alive to block Percy's scan.

Part of the point in writing out the different %s of xorxes and bozo being more/less mafia was to suggest we vote out a different scumlean + increase our odds of lynching the hooker.

[EspressoPatronum]

I would like to see some crumbs from our claimants if they exist.

I see no point in crumbing in this setup, as there's no reason to believe you'll be counterclaimed. All if my play leading up to my reveal was meant to help deflect attention from me until I used my tracks.

If dargo has crumbs, that's reason to believe he's been planning to CC since whenever he left a crumb.

[xorxes]

Ok... thanks espresso. For lying through your teeth. And revealing our first scum.

I am the tracker.

N2, PW did not go anywhere. I chose him simply because I scumread him.
N3 I TRIED to track xorxes. But I was roll blocked.

I am again, by the side of the road... but needed to post this asap.

##VOTE ESPRESSOPATRONUM

And we have a counteclaim. Wonderful.

I have to say Espresso is much more believable, but I will reread both. (Fortunately your iso is short.)

If you were a cow, who would you spread disease to?

[Foxcastle]

I would like to see some crumbs from our claimants if they exist.

I see no point in crumbing in this setup, as there's no reason to believe you'll be counterclaimed. All if my play leading up to my reveal was meant to help deflect attention from me until I used my tracks.

If dargo has crumbs, that's reason to believe he's been planning to CC since whenever he left a crumb.

Thanks for pointing that out to him.

[bo_sox48]

I’m trying to wrap my head around why there would be a counterclaim in this scenario and I’m not getting very far.